Would you trade Justin Upton and how much money would you pay?

[Angels 1961]

Justin Upton has been a different player batting lead off. Would you pay 18 to 20 mill of remaining money owned him in a trade. I know he has a no trade contract but if halos can free up another 10 million for next year is it worth it? Do you keep him as your LF for next year?

[Stradling]

I like Upton, but if I could trade him and only eat half his salary I would probably do it.  

[mmc]

I’d swap him in a deal for a similar caliber SP with a similar contract situation.  He’s not terrible but I’d prefer to use his money on pitching

[Stradling]

19 minutes ago, mmc said:

I’d swap him in a deal for a similar caliber SP with a similar contract situation.  He’s not terrible but I’d prefer to use his money on pitching

Chris Sale?  You'd be trading one year of Upton at $28 million for two years of Sale for $55 million with Sale coming off of TJ surgery.  If we did that trade my thoughts are we pick up none of Upton's contract.  

[Junkballer]

Trout chimes in on the topic at the 40 second mark.

With so many spots to fill next year, they need to pay for several arms.  I assume one of Adell/Marsh will be on the club, possibly out of spring training, making J-Up less vital.  If a trade could net a moderate cost mid-tier arm to improve the pitching staff then yes.  However, I don't think there will be enough of a quality return that helps the Angels in the short term for that scenario to play out.

That being said, if they are in contention at the trade deadline, AND, they acquire some pitching help, keep him and see how the team battles for a spot.  If not, no brainer, get whatever you can.  I just don't think it will be very much; if anything, prospects that wont help the big club for several years.

[mmc]

58 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Chris Sale?  You'd be trading one year of Upton at $28 million for two years of Sale for $55 million with Sale coming off of TJ surgery.  If we did that trade my thoughts are we pick up none of Upton's contract.  

Isn't Sale signed through 2025?  This is the type of deal I'd want to make though, Boston would probably have to eat some of Sale's contract.  Not sure he's someone they're really looking to dump though.

[WicketMaiden]

I'd keep him if he continues to hit like he has since being moved to lead-off. It's 23 games batting first now and he's hitting .333 with a ridiculous .425 OBP and 1.013 OPS. He's scored a run per game himself over that time and had 15 walks to go with his 30 hits. Where else do you find that sort of production?

If J-up stays within 10% of what he's currently doing, I want him batting first. Or I want a very good starting pitcher if I'm trading him. 

.333  .425  1.013 - He's got a Trout like stat line batting first. This team gets worse if you trade that away.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

Isn't Sale signed through 2025?  This is the type of deal I'd want to make though, Boston would probably have to eat some of Sale's contract.  Not sure he's someone they're really looking to dump though.

If I remember correctly 2025 is an option year.  Plus there is money deferred.  There aren’t a lot of big money pitcher contracts that teams may want to get out of, outside of Strasburg and I would stay far away from that deal.  

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

If I remember correctly 2025 is an option year.  Plus there is money deferred.  There aren’t a lot of big money pitcher contracts that teams may want to get out of, outside of Strasburg and I would stay far away from that deal.  

That means after this year, he still has 3 years left on his current deal. 

[Angels in 2030]

You have this wrong.  The real question is: would another team trade for Upton and how much of his salary would they pay?

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, Lou said:

That means after this year, he still has 3 years left on his current deal. 

Yep, I am dumb.  Not that this changes the dollars but $50 million from 20-24 are deferred.  

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Fourts said:

You have this wrong.  The real question is: would another team trade for Upton and how much of his salary would they pay?

Is he wrong?  You don’t think Upton would have a trade market right now if the Angels paid down next year?  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

9 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

I'd keep him if he continues to hit like he has since being moved to lead-off. It's 23 games batting first now and he's hitting .333 with a ridiculous .425 OBP and 1.013 OPS. He's scored a run per game himself over that time and had 15 walks to go with his 30 hits. Where else do you find that sort of production?

If J-up stays within 10% of what he's currently doing, I want him batting first. Or I want a very good starting pitcher if I'm trading him. 

.333  .425  1.013 - He's got a Trout like stat line batting first. This team gets worse of you trade that away.

Upton's best seasons (age 21, 23 and 29 seasons) weren't within 10% of what he's done as far as AVG/OBP/OPS since being moved to lead-off.  His career numbers and the fact that he's 33 say those numbers are likely to drop which means his trade value during his current contract could be about at it's peak.  Obviously you don't trade just for the sake of pulling off a trade but unless the Angels have a legit shot to compete this season or next they'd be crazy not to consider moving him and getting out of paying some of the money he's still owed.

[T.G.]

"Trade Upton" is the new AW narrative/rally cry.

He can't win.  If he struggles... fans want to get rid of him.  If he hits well, fans still want to trade him. 

It's dumb, IMO.

[Slegnaac]

Whatever they do, they better have it factored into a plan that will allow them to sign Shohei to a long term / career deal.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

"Trade Upton" is the new AW narrative/rally cry.

He can't win.  If he struggles... fans want to get rid of him.  If he hits well, fans still want to trade him. 

It's dumb, IMO.

I like the guy, but even I fall into this category.  If he does well I would trade him.  Every dollar you don’t pay him can go to signing pitching.  If they refuse to sign pitching, then don’t trade Upton.  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

14 minutes ago, True Grich said:

"Trade Upton" is the new AW narrative/rally cry.

He can't win.  If he struggles... fans want to get rid of him.  If he hits well, fans still want to trade him. 

It's dumb, IMO.

If any fans want to get rid of him then the best time to do that is when he hits well.  Much better to get something for him and get out of paying some of what's owed to him rather than an Albert situation where they just cut him.

[halomatt]

I'd trade him yesterday if I could find a partner.  (And, overall, I like the guy.) I'd pay all of this year's salary and whatever it took for next year's salary in order to "buy" some top tier minor league talent coming back to the Angels.  (In whatever form that talent takes.)

[WicketMaiden]

23 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Upton's best seasons (age 21, 23 and 29 seasons) weren't within 10% of what he's done as far as AVG/OBP/OPS since being moved to lead-off.  His career numbers and the fact that he's 33 say those numbers are likely to drop which means his trade value during his current contract could be about at it's peak.  Obviously you don't trade just for the sake of pulling off a trade but unless the Angels have a legit shot to compete this season or next they'd be crazy not to consider moving him and getting out of paying some of the money he's still owed.

33 is not old, have you seen him on the bases lately? He's moving like an athlete, like the player we thought we were signing. And I'm not going to give too much sway to career numbers when so much changes over time with baseball - particularly the balls themselves. Playing lead-off at this stage of his career, with this line-up is really working for him and plenty of top players have put up excellent numbers throughout their early to mid thirties, so as I say, if he stays somewhere near where he is I want him in the team batting first.

With J-Up I think it's a psychological thing, he's a quiet guy and I think the pressure of batting after Trout inhibited him, batting first is a different mindset and that seems to be agreeing with him. I accept that this could just be an extended J-Up hot streak, but I'm hopeful it's more than that.

I agree it could be an opportunity to sell high, but with that salary I don't think we get a whole lot back, nothing game changing anyway. So it's about salary relief? He's not bad enough to dump just to save Arte some $$$. Minasian will have around $75m to spend this off-season, considering the players we've got coming through and the line-up already in place, if he can't build out the staff properly for that then another 10 million or so won't make much of a difference in my view.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Is he wrong?  You don’t think Upton would have a trade market right now if the Angels paid down next year?  

He likely has a trade market regardless of whether or not the Angels paid it down.  Teams interested in him don't likely give a shit about his HR or RBI totals, his predictors are all pretty good to great, even with a shitty K rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-upton-457708?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

That's a shit ton of red.  

Paying down may get them a better prospect but he's played well enough where he's likely dispelled the talk about potential death spiral decline.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Slegnaac said:

Whatever they do, they better have it factored into a plan that will allow them to sign Shohei to a long term / career deal.

I dont think anything stops that from happening. If shohei does this again next year.... he might break the record...

Hes finally living up to the hype. And his marketability is off the charts.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

24 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He likely has a trade market regardless of whether or not the Angels paid it down.  Teams interested in him don't likely give a shit about his HR or RBI totals, his predictors are all pretty good to great, even with a shitty K rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-upton-457708?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

That's a shit ton of red.  

Paying down may get them a better prospect but he's played well enough where he's likely dispelled the talk about potential death spiral decline.  

Hes finally justin, and not melvin

(Who used to say that all the time on here again?)

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

"Trade Upton" is the new AW narrative/rally cry.

He can't win.  If he struggles... fans want to get rid of him.  If he hits well, fans still want to trade him. 

It's dumb, IMO.

He can't win he's getting 25 mill this year and 28 mill next. What I'm asking would you trade him save some money. What would be best for team?

[Angels in 2030]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Is he wrong?  You don’t think Upton would have a trade market right now if the Angels paid down next year?  

I think there would be a limited amount of teams interested....and it would depend on how much the angels would pay it down before they would want him.  The vast majority of teams would not be interested in him.  Easier said than done imho.

[Revad]

Would any trade be for pitching, if so I approve.