WAR and Ohtani

[happybat4 355]

I was curious if WAR will differentiate when Ohtani bats as a DH and when he bats as pitcher. I know his stats as a pitcher would be more valuable than when he DHs. For instance Zack Greinke has a 5.1 career offensive WAR with a career 600 OPS. This is because his stats come as a pitcher. If Greinkes stats were from DHing it would be much lower.

[AngelsLakersFan 9,389]

It should treat him as a DH, but I have a feeling that the programmers of the calculation didn't take his skill set into consideration when they created it and that it ends up treating him as a pitcher.

[happybat4 355]

9 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It should treat him as a DH, but I have a feeling that the programmers of the calculation didn't take his skill set into consideration when they created it and that it ends up treating him as a pitcher.

But why would it credit it as a DH when he was the pitcher that day? Is it because the Angels would have to give up the DH to have him bat?

[AngelsLakersFan 9,389]

1 minute ago, happybat4 said:

But why would it credit it as a DH when he was the pitcher that day? Is it because the Angels would have to give up the DH to have him bat?

The DH is the baseline for expected offensive performance from that position in the AL.

[Taylor 17,856]

This might be a dumb question, but can't we simply combine his offensive WAR and pitching WAR?

[Warfarin 2,559]

44 minutes ago, Taylor said:

This might be a dumb question, but can't we simply combine his offensive WAR and pitching WAR?

As a position player, when they tabulate fWAR, they take their defensive position into account.  DHs are penalized by this system, so guys like Nelson Cruz, etc have lower fWARs than they would have if they played the field.  

[Taylor 17,856]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

As a position player, when they tabulate fWAR, they take their defensive position into account.  DHs are penalized by this system, so guys like Nelson Cruz, etc have lower fWARs than they would have if they played the field.  

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

[Warfarin 2,559]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

Yeah, it might be hard to capture, given he'll bat as a pitcher sometimes.  But I imagine they can evolve the stat to more accurately capture this, especially if we start seeing others doing it.  NL pitchers do this currently, although I expect the NL to adopt the DH next year.

[AngelsLakersFan 9,389]

6 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

This is one of those issues where we will need a peak behind the curtain to know how it's being calculated. I'm fairly confident that the stat is currently most likely overvaluing Ohtani quite significantly. That said, I think war also under values in other ways. 

[failos 4,071]

Put Ohtani in RF lol

[Randy Gradishar 1,401]

35 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

Even if calculated correctly, assessing his value is complicated. On the 10-man starting lineup, his name appears twice.

I could see his finishing 2nd and 6th in the MVP race this year.

[ScottT 2,779]

6 hours ago, failos said:

Put Ohtani in RF lol

I think we will see that at some point.  In a playoff race or in the playoffs for an inning or two. I could see it happening this year.

[beatlesrule 2,229]

Wouldn't there be less strain on his arm at first?

[Blarg 31,098]

7 hours ago, Taylor said:

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

As a fan I don't need Stat validation to know that Ohtani has greater value than other pitchers in the league.  

[Taylor 17,856]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

As a fan I don't need Stat validation to know that Ohtani has greater value than other pitchers in the league.  

Neither do I.

[ten ocho recon scout 18,167]

8 hours ago, Taylor said:

This might be a dumb question, but can't we simply combine his offensive WAR and pitching WAR?

Kind of like WW2. Dont look at is as separate fronts, just look at it as one effort

[Angelsjunky 10,653]

WAR is a translation from RAR (Runs Above Replacement), which is comprised of various components: Batting Runs, Fielding Runs, Base Running Runs, Positional Adjustment, and a minor league adjustment and replacement level adjustment.

The Positional Adjustment is what is being discussed. Fangraphs calculates it as follows, per 1458 defensive innings (162 games x 9 innings):

+12.5 C

+7.5 SS

+2.5 2B, 3B, CF

-2.5 LF, RF

-12.5 1B

-17.5 DH

I am not sure how they calculate pitchers, but consider this: If Ohtani starts 25 games (at most) this year at an average of 6 IP per start, that's 25 x 6 = 150 defensive innings as a pitcher. Let's say he starts 80 games as the DH, so 80 x 9 = 720 innings at DH.

That means he'll get roughly -8.5 position adjustment for DH. Given that he'll only be playing about one-tenth of a full season as a pitcher for defensive innings - probably no more or less than +/- 1-2 defensive runs, which is no more than +/- 0.2 WAR.

Meaning, whatever the difference between his pitching and DH positional adjustment, it is quite minimal.

And yes, I think you can safely add his pitching WAR and hitting WAR together to get a sense of overall value. 

[ten ocho recon scout 18,167]

I move for a new stat called "but compared to shohei", or "BCS".

We can have rankings based on it that determine bowl games, or who gets awards.

Nobody would complain about it.

Sho Bowl also would be a cool name for a baseball contest.

Edited Thursday at 12:46 AM by ten ocho recon scout

[Lou 44,847]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I move for a new stat called "but compared to shohei", or "BCS".

We can have rankings based on it that determine bowl games, or who gets awards.

Nobody would complain about it.

Sho Bowl also would be a cool name for a baseball contest.

Rorr Tide!

[Second Base 9,003]

See now I think a new standard should be used. WLTT (pronounced "Wilt") Wins Less Than Trout. 

For example, Shohei and Rendon will probably end up being 3 WLTT. Whereas whoever the media picks to compete with Trout this year since it's too boring to let the best player win every year, will probably end up being 2 WLTT. 

Trout wins in any typical year with 0 WLTT.

Wouldn't that be something if the Angels finished 1, 2 and 3 in WAR?

[Taylor 17,856]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

WAR is a translation from RAR (Runs Above Replacement), which is comprised of various components: Batting Runs, Fielding Runs, Base Running Runs, Positional Adjustment, and a minor league adjustment and replacement level adjustment.

The Positional Adjustment is what is being discussed. Fangraphs calculates it as follows, per 1458 defensive innings (162 games x 9 innings):

+12.5 C

+7.5 SS

+2.5 2B, 3B, CF

-2.5 LF, RF

-12.5 1B

-17.5 DH

I am not sure how they calculate pitchers, but consider this: If Ohtani starts 25 games (at most) this year at an average of 6 IP per start, that's 25 x 6 = 150 defensive innings as a pitcher. Let's say he starts 80 games as the DH, so 80 x 9 = 720 innings at DH.

That means he'll get roughly -8.5 position adjustment for DH. Given that he'll only be playing about one-tenth of a full season as a pitcher for defensive innings - probably no more or less than +/- 1-2 defensive runs, which is no more than +/- 0.2 WAR.

Meaning, whatever the difference between his pitching and DH positional adjustment, it is quite minimal.

And yes, I think you can safely add his pitching WAR and hitting WAR together to get a sense of overall value. 

[happybat4 355]

11 hours ago, Taylor said:

But you would think they would have a formula to do it by exact games at a position, not a flat out position for the whole year. Like a different formula for when Ohtani bats as a DH and when Ohtani bats a pitcher. I imagine it would be the same thing if Fletcher batted as a Shortstop, Second basemen or a third basemen. Maybe not, but I was curious.

[happybat4 355]

I found the answer from FanGraphs WAR

"If a player has played multiple positions, you simply calculate the adjustment separately and add them together."

So I guess they have the stats from when he pitches compared to when he DHs and they just add them. 

[Inside Pitch 18,171]

On 4/7/2021 at 12:36 PM, Warfarin said:

As a position player, when they tabulate fWAR, they take their defensive position into account.  DHs are penalized by this system, so guys like Nelson Cruz, etc have lower fWARs than they would have if they played the field.  

Well, except for the reality that his atrocious defense would bring his fWAR down.  The various WAR formulas aren't penalizing DHs, they are acknowledging the one dimensional nature of their jobs.  Maybe more importantly WAR understands that run prevention has greater value than run production and grades accordingly.

[Inside Pitch 18,171]

On 4/7/2021 at 12:39 PM, Taylor said:

Makes sense. So with the way fWAR and bWAR are calculated, we might never see an accurate statistic for Shohei's value.

Basically just view him as two players, one a hitter, the other a pitcher and add them.  The value of one roster spot offering value in both areas is huge.

Maybe look at the WAR per inning/AB if you want to compare him to others.