Perry's Plan Revisioned (or Solved?)

[T.G.]

David Price hasn't pitched since 2019.  In that season he had one start in August and one start in Sept.  He went 2.2 and 2 innings in each of those starts.  He's a huge question mark.  I don't understand why so many want this guy?  He's 35 years old.

[Angelsjunky]

23 minutes ago, T.G. said:

David Price hasn't pitched since 2019.  In that season he had one start in August and one start in Sept.  He went 2.2 and 2 innings in each of those starts.  He's a huge question mark.  I don't understand why so many want this guy?  He's 35 years old.

Desperation.

He's a name.

[Torridd]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

Ok, but who stated that Minasian was " jumping in the job feet first" ?

I said that I thought he would considering the team hasn't been to the playoffs in years.

[stormngt]

10 hours ago, Stradling said:

My point is he has faith in the ballclub more so than a lot of fans.  He put a ton of thought into this decision as any of us would have.  The money was going to be there for him if he let his contract run out without signing an extension.  He chose a huge some of money to stay here.  If he feels betrayed then he can express that to Arte or Minasian.  If he requests a trade then we will know how he feels.  But people make him out to be a victim and it’s pathetic. 

I am sure he had faith in the franchise.   However the last two years they have not adequately addressed the biggest needs and now I am r EA adding on her that they want to "fold" on this year to evaluate the Farm.

Trout is getting older every year. He is currently in his prime.  It a slap in his face to "fold" this year for evaluation purposes.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am sure he had faith in the franchise.   However the last two years they have not adequately addressed the biggest needs and now I am r EA adding on her that they want to "fold" on this year to evaluate the Farm.

Trout is getting older every year. He is currently in his prime.  It a slap in his face to "fold" this year for evaluation purposes.

Who said they are folding?  There was one starting pitcher that was a difference maker on the free agent market.  He got $40 million this year and $45 million next year.  This team is an 85 win team as currently constructed.  The teams biggest need was to develop a farm that can supplement the big league team.  That takes a long time to make happen when you don’t have trade-able assets.  As for pitching this year, they have lifted the floor, which will prevent the guys that had 9 ERAs from making starts all year long.  If the team plays well then they will upgrade the team at the trade deadline.  If they don’t then they will trade all the one year guys and continue to build the farm system.  

[HaloBronco]

On 2/6/2021 at 11:39 AM, Angelsjunky said:

There's been a lot of head-scratching at Perry Minasian's moves this offseason as he has eschewed multi-year deals and added minimal if any premier talent (depending upon how you consider Raisel Iglesias).

Now while I don't like the Cobb trade (as the Angels could have found similar talent on the free agent market without giving up Jahmai Jones), I am starting to see a bigger picture that could explain his thinking. I'm not saying that I have definitive proof that this is what Minasian has in mind, but kind of like the hypothetical Planet X, there's lots of secondary evidence that supports my theory, even if the plan (or planet) hasn't been directly seen.

After acquiring Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, the Angels now have, along with Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, four veteran starters who will be free agents after 2021. So too will be their new closer, Raisel Iglesias, as well as their two position player acquisitions, Dexter Fowler and Kurt Suzuki.

Now consider the farm system. It has a lot of projectable, but largely unproven, talent. Of especial interest to the near future, the team has two very good outfielders in Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh who should be ready sometime this season, and two starters in Reid Detmers and Chris Rodriguez, who also have a chance of major league readiness; if not in 2021, then as possible starters in 2022. 

After those four, they have several starters who could either be #4-5 starters or solid relievers in Hector Yan, Aaron Hernandez, Oliver Ortega, Pack Naughton, etc, as well as a third stud outfielder in Jordyn Adams who could be ready sometime in 2022. The bulk of the rest of the talent is very inexperienced, but with some upside.

In other words, Minasian has inherited a very interesting farm system, but also a very inexperienced one.

Back to the central thesis (of which the farm system will support in a moment): What can we say about Perry's offseason moves? Well, one thing we can say that he's done is raise the floor on the team's performance. He hasn't turned what looked like an 85-win team a couple months ago into a 90 or 95 win team, but he has increased its likelihood that it will reach 85 wins (plus or minus), and perhaps slightly upped the chances of 90.

But of relevance to my thesis, he's done it without adding future payroll considerations. As mentioned, Iglesias, Quintana, Cobb, Fowler, and Suzuki are only paid through 2021, joining Pujols, Bundy, and Heaney, and followed by Upton after 2022.

So what is my thesis? Minasian is trying to both improve the team, but without adding long-term commitments. Why? Because he wants to take a year to assess the internal talent, so he can make choices that will positively impact the long-term health and strength of the organization. And he's doing so in a way that may actually add talent via trades. To illustrate, let me offer two possibilities for the 2021 season, from the perspective of where we might be at in July:

One, more has gone right than wrong and the Angels are in contention. They keep their players, and maybe use excess minor league talent to improve the team for the stretch run.

Two, the Angels are falling out of contention, or out all together. All of a sudden they have four veteran starters and a reliever that could bring in significant minor league talent. They can move aside veterans to give young players like Adell, Marsh, Detmers, etc, a shot.

Meaning, Perry has made his various acquisitions with an eye for both minimizing long-term investments and/or, if the team is not in contention, possibly trading them.

By July we should have the answers to some very important questions for the future: Can Shohei Ohtani be a pitcher, or should the Angels start thinking about him converting to hitting only? How close are Detmers and Rodriguez to being major leaguers? How good is Griffin Canning? Was Dylan Bundy's breakout in 2020 real? Who are Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, really? Are either of Luis Rengifo or Franklin Barreto good enough to be regulars? Are Adell and/or Marsh ready for the Show?

I get the frustration of yet another year of waiting. But given that this is Perry's first year, and the question marks surrounding the Angels farm system and many of their major leaguers, I think it is necessary and that it should pay huge dividends in 2022 and beyond. And who knows, with a weakened AL West, he might have done just enough for the Angels to at least be borderline contenders and, if not, they'll have some trade chips come late July.

Great write up, love it. 

Very logical guess at what Perry is doing.

Hopefully this exactly what his plan is.  

[Blarg]

It appears Minasian is going to carry 16 pitchers on the roster at the rate he is collecting them. 

[Taylor]

Perry's real plan confirmed: Acquire players with plural last names.

 

Iglesias

Iglesias

Lagares

Slegares

Quintana (plural for Quintanae)

 

 

[failos]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

Perry's real plan confirmed: Acquire players with plural last names.

 

Iglesias

Iglesias

Lagares

Slegares

Quintana (plural for Quintanae)

 

 

You smoking some of that good shit

[angelsnationtalk]

19 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It appears Minasian is going to carry 16 pitchers on the roster at the rate he is collecting them. 

The more the merrier for this squad

[stormngt]

15 hours ago, Stradling said:

Who said they are folding?  There was one starting pitcher that was a difference maker on the free agent market.  He got $40 million this year and $45 million next year.  This team is an 85 win team as currently constructed.  The teams biggest need was to develop a farm that can supplement the big league team.  That takes a long time to make happen when you don’t have trade-able assets.  As for pitching this year, they have lifted the floor, which will prevent the guys that had 9 ERAs from making starts all year long.  If the team plays well then they will upgrade the team at the trade deadline.  If they don’t then they will trade all the one year guys and continue to build the farm system.  

You need to follow the conversation as you respond to people.  A poster commented that Minasian maybe calling in the season (I am not sure of the exact wording) to evaluate the farm and "see what we have".

It was then I responded that Trump is being given the finger and deserved better.

You responded to my comment however my comment is premised a third party comment.

I am not goid at finding old posts but I will try to see if I can find the original post.

[T.G.]

[Chuck]

 

[Revad]

After re-reading this string I have to wonder what’s really changed.  Minasain didn’t gut the farm so there’s that.  But to complete this team I think he’ll need some prospect currency and some luck.  Or just wait another year and hope for the best, then maybe go for it next year.

As is, two more SP on one year deals.  Bullpen slightly better, but Trout and Rendon a year older.  Ohtani an official stud superstar but can he do it again.  Artie apparently sticking with his budget.  So an 85 win team if healthy?  That’s progress?

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Revad said:

After re-reading this string I have to wonder what’s really changed.  Minasain didn’t gut the farm so there’s that.  But to complete this team I think he’ll need some prospect currency and some luck.  Or just wait another year and hope for the best, then maybe go for it next year.

As is, two more SP on one year deals.  Bullpen slightly better, but Trout and Rendon a year older.  Ohtani an official stud superstar but can he do it again.  Artie apparently sticking with his budget.  So an 85 win team if healthy?  That’s progress?

What’s changed?  I’d say bringing in established relief pitchers is a big change. Giving bullpen arms multi year deals is different. And this is simply my opinion but the upside of Noah is higher, since he’s in his prime, than any pitcher Eppler brought in.  With health they’ll win more than 85 games, and I have no idea if the budget changed because there’s still a ton that could happen to improve the team. 

[Jason]

28 minutes ago, Stradling said:

What’s changed?  I’d say bringing in established relief pitchers is a big change. Giving bullpen arms multi year deals is different. And this is simply my opinion but the upside of Noah is higher, since he’s in his prime, than any pitcher Eppler brought in.  With health they’ll win more than 85 games, and I have no idea if the budget changed because there’s still a ton that could happen to improve the team. 

I’m in complete agreement with you on Syndergarrd. There is some risk but the upside is high enough to make it worth it. Hopefully he’s back to being a stud and will sign a long term deal with the Halos 

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 2/7/2021 at 9:01 AM, AngelsLakersFan said:

Isn't it more believable to think that Arte simply gave Minasian a budget - the same budget he gave Eppler - and that Minasian, like Eppler, believes that trading away our best prospects now is not in the long term interest of the franchise? 

This board has been way over-thinking it this entire offseason.

We do it every offseason.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

After re-reading this string I have to wonder what’s really changed.  Minasain didn’t gut the farm so there’s that.  But to complete this team I think he’ll need some prospect currency and some luck.  Or just wait another year and hope for the best, then maybe go for it next year.

As is, two more SP on one year deals.  Bullpen slightly better, but Trout and Rendon a year older.  Ohtani an official stud superstar but can he do it again.  Artie apparently sticking with his budget.  So an 85 win team if healthy?  That’s progress?

Nothing has changed. There is a budget, there is the way Arte would like to spend it, and there is a group of people within the organization who work to improve the team within those parameters. The goal is not to win a championship, it's to convince the fans that there is a reason to come out to the ballpark every night. 

[Inside Pitch]

But .... for the right player....

[tdawg87]

I hate Arte. Don't care how much he "spends". He doesn't give a fucking shit about winning, only about filling the fucking stupid seats in his shithole bandaid rat infested toilet of a stadium. He's gonna leave the next owner with the bill for the absolute Armageddon of bullshit he's attempting to create around the stadium. Sell the fucking team. Fucking Mexican Walt Disney lookin motherfucker. 

[Angelsjunky]

On 2/6/2021 at 2:39 PM, Angelsjunky said:

 

By July we should have the answers to some very important questions for the future: Can Shohei Ohtani be a pitcher, or should the Angels start thinking about him converting to hitting only? How close are Detmers and Rodriguez to being major leaguers? How good is Griffin Canning? Was Dylan Bundy's breakout in 2020 real? Who are Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, really? Are either of Luis Rengifo or Franklin Barreto good enough to be regulars? Are Adell and/or Marsh ready for the Show?

Yes; close; not very good; no; what he though he was and what we hoped he was; probably not but maybe and wtf is that; pretty much and yes.

[Revad]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes; close; not very good; no; what he though he was and what we hoped he was; probably not but maybe and wtf is that; pretty much and yes.

Ok

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

What’s changed?  I’d say bringing in established relief pitchers is a big change. Giving bullpen arms multi year deals is different. And this is simply my opinion but the upside of Noah is higher, since he’s in his prime, than any pitcher Eppler brought in.  With health they’ll win more than 85 games, and I have no idea if the budget changed because there’s still a ton that could happen to improve the team. 

Signing Loup was good, I like what’s been added pitching-wise.  The way Minasain finishes this team will be interesting, and to this point it seems like he got the guys he wanted, that all is according to plan.  So far.

[tdawg87]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes; close; not very good; no; what he though he was and what we hoped he was; probably not but maybe and wtf is that; pretty much and yes.

@EnglishCop was just murdered.

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, Revad said:

After re-reading this string I have to wonder what’s really changed.  Minasain didn’t gut the farm so there’s that.  But to complete this team I think he’ll need some prospect currency and some luck.  Or just wait another year and hope for the best, then maybe go for it next year.

As is, two more SP on one year deals.  Bullpen slightly better, but Trout and Rendon a year older.  Ohtani an official stud superstar but can he do it again.  Artie apparently sticking with his budget.  So an 85 win team if healthy?  That’s progress?

I think you have to realize that when a new GM takes over, unless there is suddenly a huge increase in payroll, it's typically hard to expect to see results in a single year.

In NY, for example, Eppler has been given free reign and is signing a lot of players to large contracts.  Minasian did not get the same privilege while starting here.  Rather, he is being asked to do more with relatively the same budget, which means he will need to be creative and create a strong prospect pipeline to supplement the major league talent we already have in place.

Again, it's very difficult to expect to see results that quickly given that context.  Prospects take years to develop.  So far, his MLB acquisitions have been mixed (Cobb was great, Quintana was awful, etc).  Whether Minasian succeeds or fails will largely depend on his ability to develop prospects while also being able to find decent value in the free agency market.

[Docwaukee]

12 hours ago, Stradling said:

What’s changed?  I’d say bringing in established relief pitchers is a big change. Giving bullpen arms multi year deals is different. And this is simply my opinion but the upside of Noah is higher, since he’s in his prime, than any pitcher Eppler brought in.  With health they’ll win more than 85 games, and I have no idea if the budget changed because there’s still a ton that could happen to improve the team. 

Syndergaard has upside but is he really going to pitch that much better than Cobb?  Cobb only threw 93.1 innings but had a 2.92 FIP.  To me that's Noah's upside with maybe 40-50 more innings?  Maybe.  Frankly I expect him to be about the 2.5 WAR player that Cobb was.  

We lost Heaney and his 94 innings with a 4.06 FIP.  Does Lorenzen get there?  Again, probably more innings.  

I do like the pen  more than last year so far and I think we could see some additional improvements.  

I think with health they're maybe an 85 win team as it stands.  And part of my assumption is that the defense will even out and not be the total disaster it's been.  But when have we had health across the board?  

As it stands right now, we're projected to have one of if not the worst MIF in baseball even if Fletcher rebounds a bit.   We added a big upside starter who hasn't pitched in two years.  And another guy who hasn't been a starter in six years and has been a mediocre reliever otherwise.  

We've been crossing our fingers going into every season for the last 12 years needing a bunch of shit to go our way.  It's worked once.  

It might work again, but even if it does it'll likely require several things to happen that are gonna need to be replaced again the following year.  

People talk about the Trout window and such.  Time will tell, but it sure seemed like a bunch of options to improve the team well beyond where it's at have passed us by this year.  

Instead we're in a similar of hoping that guys rebound.  Young guys improve considerably.  Some guys do what they've never done or repeat a career year.  And that pretty much everyone has to stay healthy.  

I would rather be optimistic which I usually am.  But fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool us all twelve times in a row?  

And I'll root and cheer and hope for the best when the season starts.  But it gets pretty challenging to watch something fail for the same reasons over and over.