Perry's Plan Revisioned (or Solved?)

[Angelsjunky]

There's been a lot of head-scratching at Perry Minasian's moves this offseason as he has eschewed multi-year deals and added minimal if any premier talent (depending upon how you consider Raisel Iglesias).

Now while I don't like the Cobb trade (as the Angels could have found similar talent on the free agent market without giving up Jahmai Jones), I am starting to see a bigger picture that could explain his thinking. I'm not saying that I have definitive proof that this is what Minasian has in mind, but kind of like the hypothetical Planet X, there's lots of secondary evidence that supports my theory, even if the plan (or planet) hasn't been directly seen.

After acquiring Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, the Angels now have, along with Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, four veteran starters who will be free agents after 2021. So too will be their new closer, Raisel Iglesias, as well as their two position player acquisitions, Dexter Fowler and Kurt Suzuki.

Now consider the farm system. It has a lot of projectable, but largely unproven, talent. Of especial interest to the near future, the team has two very good outfielders in Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh who should be ready sometime this season, and two starters in Reid Detmers and Chris Rodriguez, who also have a chance of major league readiness; if not in 2021, then as possible starters in 2022. 

After those four, they have several starters who could either be #4-5 starters or solid relievers in Hector Yan, Aaron Hernandez, Oliver Ortega, Pack Naughton, etc, as well as a third stud outfielder in Jordyn Adams who could be ready sometime in 2022. The bulk of the rest of the talent is very inexperienced, but with some upside.

In other words, Minasian has inherited a very interesting farm system, but also a very inexperienced one.

Back to the central thesis (of which the farm system will support in a moment): What can we say about Perry's offseason moves? Well, one thing we can say that he's done is raise the floor on the team's performance. He hasn't turned what looked like an 85-win team a couple months ago into a 90 or 95 win team, but he has increased its likelihood that it will reach 85 wins (plus or minus), and perhaps slightly upped the chances of 90.

But of relevance to my thesis, he's done it without adding future payroll considerations. As mentioned, Iglesias, Quintana, Cobb, Fowler, and Suzuki are only paid through 2021, joining Pujols, Bundy, and Heaney, and followed by Upton after 2022.

So what is my thesis? Minasian is trying to both improve the team, but without adding long-term commitments. Why? Because he wants to take a year to assess the internal talent, so he can make choices that will positively impact the long-term health and strength of the organization. And he's doing so in a way that may actually add talent via trades. To illustrate, let me offer two possibilities for the 2021 season, from the perspective of where we might be at in July:

One, more has gone right than wrong and the Angels are in contention. They keep their players, and maybe use excess minor league talent to improve the team for the stretch run.

Two, the Angels are falling out of contention, or out all together. All of a sudden they have four veteran starters and a reliever that could bring in significant minor league talent. They can move aside veterans to give young players like Adell, Marsh, Detmers, etc, a shot.

Meaning, Perry has made his various acquisitions with an eye for both minimizing long-term investments and/or, if the team is not in contention, possibly trading them.

By July we should have the answers to some very important questions for the future: Can Shohei Ohtani be a pitcher, or should the Angels start thinking about him converting to hitting only? How close are Detmers and Rodriguez to being major leaguers? How good is Griffin Canning? Was Dylan Bundy's breakout in 2020 real? Who are Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, really? Are either of Luis Rengifo or Franklin Barreto good enough to be regulars? Are Adell and/or Marsh ready for the Show?

I get the frustration of yet another year of waiting. But given that this is Perry's first year, and the question marks surrounding the Angels farm system and many of their major leaguers, I think it is necessary and that it should pay huge dividends in 2022 and beyond. And who knows, with a weakened AL West, he might have done just enough for the Angels to at least be borderline contenders and, if not, they'll have some trade chips come late July.

[Angelsfan1984]

Trevor Bauer why are you still typing in the angels forum. Low blow dude 

[Junkballer]

AJ, very salient points.  I dont get the sense that he is punting 2021 as some have said but wisely making this an evaluation year all the while being able to take advantage of the upside of his assets in-season, with the likelihood that they will be still contending come trade deadline.  And should significant injuries and/or key underperformances occur, he is a better position to divest pieces that are not in long term plans in order for the future.  Also it buffers him from labor uncertainties that will surely come after this season.

Our fanbase largely suffers from a fill in the blank_____ syndrome whereby it sees the present through the eyes of the past disappointments and abuses and has a hard time seeing that they are in a different situation (relationship) with a different person.  The fact that Arte is the common denominator between past and present clouds the perception.  We really dont know how much Arte is stepping back, but I get the sense that he didnt know exactly what he wanted in terms of changing the ways the front office worked when he hired Eppler; he wanted a more analytics driven view but didnt know how to create a balance.  I believe that he is more comfortable with Minasians balanced approach and is giving him the wherewithal to build the organization within the structure of a certain budget and is giving him significant autonomy.

Minasian has a window to show improvement, just as Eppler did, but contrary to the Facebook fans, that window is 3-4 years, not 2021.  He is wise to not cut corners with evaluating and setting the foundation, and being conservative in year 1. 

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

AJ, very salient points.  I dont get the sense that he is punting 2021 as some have said but wisely making this an evaluation year all the while being able to take advantage of the upside of his assets in-season, with the likelihood that they will be still contending come trade deadline.  And should significant injuries and/or key underperformances occur, he is a better position to divest pieces that are not in long term plans in order for the future.  Also it buffers him from labor uncertainties that will surely come after this season.

Our fanbase largely suffers from a fill in the blank_____ syndrome whereby it sees the present through the eyes of the past disappointments and abuses and has a hard time seeing that they are in a different situation (relationship) with a different person.  The fact that Arte is the common denominator between past and present clouds the perception.  We really dont know how much Arte is stepping back, but I get the sense that he didnt know exactly what he wanted in terms of changing the ways the front office worked when he hired Eppler; he wanted a more analytics driven view but didnt know how to create a balance.  I believe that he is more comfortable with Minasians balanced approach and is giving him the wherewithal to build the organization within the structure of a certain budget and is giving him significant autonomy.

Minasian has a window to show improvement, just as Eppler did, but contrary to the Facebook fans, that window is 3-4 years, not 2021.  He is wise to not cut corners with evaluating and setting the foundation, and being conservative in year 1. 

Yes, well said - agree all around.

I do think the "Minasian Window" will be a bit tighter than Eppler's, if only because the idea is that he's supposed to build upon Billy's foundational work with the farm, extending Trout, signing Rendon, etc. Eppler had it a bit rough, while Perry will really only have the next two years to deal with previous mistakes (Pujols, Upton), and should benefit from the work Eppler did with the farm. I could see a rough planned outline being like so:

2021: A year to assess what the org has and needs, contend with luck. 

2022: Core of the team gets younger, augmented with a key acquisition or two. Hopeful contention as there's a feeling that the team is definitely on the upswing, but it will also be a year to let the young players--notably Adell, Marsh, Detmers, and Rodriguez--get their sea legs.

2023: Last couple years, and Eppler's work, comes to fruition. Upton off the books. Young guys starting to perform, with more on their way. Should be a solid contender.

2024+: Team gets stronger as young players come into their prime, even as Trout and Rendon start slipping. The two are the Elder Statesmen of the new young team.

 

[IEAngelsfan]

58 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

AJ, very salient points.  I dont get the sense that he is punting 2021 as some have said but wisely making this an evaluation year all the while being able to take advantage of the upside of his assets in-season, with the likelihood that they will be still contending come trade deadline.  And should significant injuries and/or key underperformances occur, he is a better position to divest pieces that are not in long term plans in order for the future.  Also it buffers him from labor uncertainties that will surely come after this season.

Our fanbase largely suffers from a fill in the blank_____ syndrome whereby it sees the present through the eyes of the past disappointments and abuses and has a hard time seeing that they are in a different situation (relationship) with a different person.  The fact that Arte is the common denominator between past and present clouds the perception.  We really dont know how much Arte is stepping back, but I get the sense that he didnt know exactly what he wanted in terms of changing the ways the front office worked when he hired Eppler; he wanted a more analytics driven view but didnt know how to create a balance.  I believe that he is more comfortable with Minasians balanced approach and is giving him the wherewithal to build the organization within the structure of a certain budget and is giving him significant autonomy.

Minasian has a window to show improvement, just as Eppler did, but contrary to the Facebook fans, that window is 3-4 years, not 2021.  He is wise to not cut corners with evaluating and setting the foundation, and being conservative in year 1. 

Very good post and I agree with everything you wrote.

[Second Base]

I feel like Minasian has helped highlight the difference between going in on 2021 and going ALL in on 2021. It's a slight, but powerful delineation. 

Going all in on 2021 means budget and prospects be damned. We're going to get the best players in baseball and win in 2021-2023. After that, we may go through a rebuild on 2024-2026, before being competitive again in 2027-2030. 

It's a very Dombrowski way of operating. 

Minasian went in on 2021, building a team that has a better shot at competing than any Eppler team outside of the 2018 team, which looked REALLY good before injuries set in. It's pretty much a guarantee that they won't be a bad team. We'll have to see how good they actually are.

But the fundamental difference is the financial clout they'll wield after 2021, and the prospects that Eppler worked so hard to bring in and develop will be ready after 2021. Which means this club will likely be competitive in 2022, and one of the elite teams in baseball in 2023 to 2026, and still competitive again 2027-2029.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I feel like Minasian has helped highlight the difference between going in on 2021 and going ALL in on 2021. It's a slight, but powerful delineation. 

Going all in on 2021 means budget and prospects be damned. We're going to get the best players in baseball and win in 2021-2023. After that, we may go through a rebuild on 2024-2026, before being competitive again in 2027-2030. 

It's a very Dombrowski way of operating. 

Minasian went in on 2021, building a team that has a better shot at competing than any Eppler team outside of the 2018 team, which looked REALLY good before injuries set in. It's pretty much a guarantee that they won't be a bad team. We'll have to see how good they actually are.

But the fundamental difference is the financial clout they'll wield after 2021, and the prospects that Eppler worked so hard to bring in and develop will be ready after 2021. Which means this club will likely be competitive in 2022, and one of the elite teams in baseball in 2023 to 2026, and still competitive again 2027-2029.

Yes, this is pretty much what I was thinking but I like your framing in the first paragraph.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, well said - agree all around.

I do think the "Minasian Window" will be a bit tighter than Eppler's, if only because the idea is that he's supposed to build upon Billy's foundational work with the farm, extending Trout, signing Rendon, etc. Eppler had it a bit rough, while Perry will really only have the next two years to deal with previous mistakes (Pujols, Upton), and should benefit from the work Eppler did with the farm. I could see a rough planned outline being like so:

2021: A year to assess what the org has and needs, contend with luck. 

2022: Core of the team gets younger, augmented with a key acquisition or two. Hopeful contention as there's a feeling that the team is definitely on the upswing, but it will also be a year to let the young players--notably Adell, Marsh, Detmers, and Rodriguez--get their sea legs.

2023: Last couple years, and Eppler's work, comes to fruition. Upton off the books. Young guys starting to perform, with more on their way. Should be a solid contender.

2024+: Team gets stronger as young players come into their prime, even as Trout and Rendon start slipping. The two are the Elder Statesmen of the new young team.

 

I don't think there's a chance to "contend with luck" in 2021. Arte Moreno fired Billy Eppler because we weren't where he thought we should have been. Do we really think he'll let the Angels punt on another year? Not happening. 

If we're waiting for 2024 then I feel bad for Trout. 

[Pancake Bear]

35 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I don't think there's a chance to "contend with luck" in 2021. Arte Moreno fired Billy Eppler because we weren't where he thought we should have been. Do we really think he'll let the Angels punt on another year? Not happening. 

If we're waiting for 2024 then I feel bad for Trout. 

Reread what he said until you actually understand it. Then you might want to edit your post. 

[angelsnationtalk]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Reread what he said until you actually understand it. Then you might want to edit your post. 

Quoting someone else, bud. Reread what they said and you might actually understand it. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I don't think there's a chance to "contend with luck" in 2021. Arte Moreno fired Billy Eppler because we weren't where he thought we should have been. Do we really think he'll let the Angels punt on another year? Not happening. 

If we're waiting for 2024 then I feel bad for Trout. 

Pancake Bear is right, though. You're taking one phrase out of context and misunderstanding, or at least skewing, what I'm saying.

Perry raised the floor and the hope is that the Angels are good enough to contend this year, but he obviously wasn't going "all in" - and presumably his approach (or as I understand it) was sanctioned by Arte.

We also have to remind ourselves, as fans, that Arte's priorities are different than ours, as fans. We want the team to win; Arte does too, but more so he wants the franchise (as a business) to be profitable. He's not a fantasy team owner; he's the owner of a $2B sports franchise - which is ten times the price he paid 17 years ago ($184M). From his perspective, the Angels are a success in the most important way (to him), and the best way to continue being a financial success is recapturing the sustained excellence that the team experienced from 2002-09, and the best way to do that is building from within, which ends up being far more cost-effective (talent for dollar ratio) than "Steinbrennering it."

So my guess is that Perry's pitch was something like this: "Billy did a good job laying the ground-work, but I'm the man to take the team to the next level. But in order to do so, I need a year to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the franchise, from top to bottom. I can plug holes on the major league team, build depth, and the team has enough talent to be competitive this year. But my plan will see sustained increases over the next few years, as the young talent matures."

I wouldn't even be surprised if Arte told him, "No big, long-term contracts." Arte, via Jerry Dipoto, already tried the Steinbrenner approach. It didn't work and crippled the franchise for a decade, with albatross contracts given to Vernon Wells, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Justin Upton. Arte has to look at all four of those and think, "Not gonna do that anymore." So Minasian isn't, and we can hope that the focus will be on farm building, which takes time and patience.

So they are not "punting" the season, they're just not robbing the future to spend in the present. The Angels already have a pretty good core. Minasian plugged some holes, and raised the floor and gave them a better chance at contending, in a way that doesn't close any doors for the future or saddle the team with more albatross contracts.

We still might see a trade before the year starts, but we can hope it won't be one that guts the farm, and I doubt it will - unless it is an offer Perry can't refuse. I think, more likely, we're done--or close to done--and any trades between now and July will only involve secondary minor league talent, if at all. They'll re-assess in July and, if a strong contender, trade from excess talent. 

[Pancake Bear]

5 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Quoting someone else, bud. Reread what they said and you might actually understand it. 

Again, reading comprehension is your friend. You literally ignored what AJ said. If what you got from his post was no contention till 2024, you didn't read it carefully and missed what he was saying (or deliberately responded to something he didn't say, I guess, if you prefer that as an option).

[Angels 1961]

4 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Again, reading comprehension is your friend. You literally ignored what AJ said. If what you got from his post was no contention till 2024, you didn't read it carefully and missed what he was saying (or deliberately responded to something he didn't say, I guess, if you prefer that as an option).

After all is said and done more will be said then done. Angels win AL west this year. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

It feels like Eppler is still our GM.

What has changed with Minasian?

[AngelsLakersFan]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Pancake Bear is right, though. You're taking one phrase out of context and misunderstanding, or at least skewing, what I'm saying.

Perry raised the floor and the hope is that the Angels are good enough to contend this year, but he obviously wasn't going "all in" - and presumably his approach (or as I understand it) was sanctioned by Arte.

We also have to remind ourselves, as fans, that Arte's priorities are different than ours, as fans. We want the team to win; Arte does too, but more so he wants the franchise (as a business) to be profitable. He's not a fantasy team owner; he's the owner of a $2B sports franchise - which is ten times the price he paid 17 years ago ($184M). From his perspective, the Angels are a success in the most important way (to him), and the best way to continue being a financial success is recapturing the sustained excellence that the team experienced from 2002-09, and the best way to do that is building from within, which ends up being far more cost-effective (talent for dollar ratio) than "Steinbrennering it."

So my guess is that Perry's pitch was something like this: "Billy did a good job laying the ground-work, but I'm the man to take the team to the next level. But in order to do so, I need a year to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the franchise, from top to bottom. I can plug holes on the major league team, build depth, and the team has enough talent to be competitive this year. But my plan will see sustained increases over the next few years, as the young talent matures."

I wouldn't even be surprised if Arte told him, "No big, long-term contracts." Arte, via Jerry Dipoto, already tried the Steinbrenner approach. It didn't work and crippled the franchise for a decade, with albatross contracts given to Vernon Wells, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Justin Upton. Arte has to look at all four of those and think, "Not gonna do that anymore." So Minasian isn't, and we can hope that the focus will be on farm building, which takes time and patience.

So they are not "punting" the season, they're just not robbing the future to spend in the present. The Angels already have a pretty good core. Minasian plugged some holes, and raised the floor and gave them a better chance at contending, in a way that doesn't close any doors for the future or saddle the team with more albatross contracts.

We still might see a trade before the year starts, but we can hope it won't be one that guts the farm, and I doubt it will - unless it is an offer Perry can't refuse. I think, more likely, we're done--or close to done--and any trades between now and July will only involve secondary minor league talent, if at all. They'll re-assess in July and, if a strong contender, trade from excess talent. 

Isn't it more believable to think that Arte simply gave Minasian a budget - the same budget he gave Eppler - and that Minasian, like Eppler, believes that trading away our best prospects now is not in the long term interest of the franchise? 

This board has been way over-thinking it this entire offseason.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

It feels like Eppler is still our GM.

What has changed with Minasian?

Hopefully, the outcome of these one year deals. Eppler failed on every single one of them. The strategy wasn't wrong, it was the execution. 

Or in simple terms, Harvey < Quintana. Cahill < Cobb.  Teheran < Barria. Maybin/Nava/Gentry < Fowler.

And I think much more specifically, Iglesias = Simmons for 7 million less, Fletcher being better than La Stella, and Raisel Iglesias bring better than Hansel Robles. 

I don't think it's that bold of an expectation to believe that Minasian's acquisitions will fare better than Eppler's and thus produce a better team. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Second Base

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hopefully, the outcome of these one year deals. Eppler failed on every single one of them. The strategy wasn't wrong, it was the execution. 

^^^^^^^^
 

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Or in simple terms, Harvey < Quintana. Cahill < Cobb.  Teheran < Barria. Maybin/Nava/Gentry < Fowler.

Quintana never was quite where Harvey was. Otoh, his floor is higher and a lot less risky. The others, we'll see. I'm,East optimistic on outfield, but if Fowler sucks, we have other options. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hopefully, the outcome of these one year deals. Eppler failed on every single one of them. The strategy wasn't wrong, it was the execution. 

Or in simple terms, Harvey < Quintana. Cahill < Cobb.  Teheran < Barria. Maybin/Nava/Gentry < Fowler.

And I think much more specifically, Iglesias = Simmons for 7 million less, Fletcher being better than La Stella, and Raisel Iglesias bring better than Hansel Robles. 

I don't think it's that bold of an expectation to believe that Minasian's acquisitions will fare better than Eppler's and thus produce a better team. 

Agreed, with two caveats:

One, it remains to be seen whether his one-year deals will have better outcome. I think they will, but we won't know until we see how they do.

Two, I don't think Iglesias is as good as Simmons, despite the latter's sub-par performance the last two years. He was injured and depressed, and at least some rebound is probable. But your point is taken: if Simba returns to 3-4 WAR form and Iglesias is a 2-3 WAR player, it is good value.

[Lou]

The thread title is bothering me.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Agreed, with two caveats:

One, it remains to be seen whether his one-year deals will have better outcome. I think they will, but we won't know until we see how they do.

Two, I don't think Iglesias is as good as Simmons, despite the latter's sub-par performance the last two years. He was injured and depressed, and at least some rebound is probable. But your point is taken: if Simba returns to 3-4 WAR form and Iglesias is a 2-3 WAR player, it is good value.

I suppose you're right, in that expecting Iglesias to match Simmons value is a tad optimistic. I think almost every player performs on a bell shaped curve. The only difference are typically when they reach the high point of that curve and how gradual the decline is.

Simmons is clearly in his decline years and will probably still be a 3-win player in 2021 and 2022, simply because he's three greatest defensive SS ever, followed by a steady run of 2-win performance in 2023 through 2025, and 1-win or replacement level performance in 2026, his age 36 season. 

Iglesias on the other hand has never been a 3-win player and while I believe he's just now reaching his peak despite being the same age as Simmons, he's probably going to be a 2.5 win player for the next couple of years while his bat remains steady. The thing that really hides his value is the fact that his bat inexplicably disappeared at ages 26 and 27, the age where everyone begins to reach their highest level. He started to figure it out again at 28 and was solid at 29 and 30. I think we'll see him hit .300 again in 2022, though with his typical downsides, which is a lack of on base ability and speed. Great bat speed though, I think he'll hit plenty of doubles. Offensively speaking I think he'll be a poor mans David Fletcher. 

But still, you're right. I think Simmons will be a half win better in 2022. But at 7 million less, I don't mind giving away a half win.

[T.G.]

Is there a Reader’s Digest version of this thread?

[Junkballer]

3 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Is there a Reader’s Digest version of this thread?

Eppler but with tastier clean peanuts.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, T.G. said:

Is there a Reader’s Digest version of this thread?

No, but you can turn on CBS for something more your speed.

[stormngt]

On 2/6/2021 at 12:57 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, well said - agree all around.

I do think the "Minasian Window" will be a bit tighter than Eppler's, if only because the idea is that he's supposed to build upon Billy's foundational work with the farm, extending Trout, signing Rendon, etc. Eppler had it a bit rough, while Perry will really only have the next two years to deal with previous mistakes (Pujols, Upton), and should benefit from the work Eppler did with the farm. I could see a rough planned outline being like so:

2021: A year to assess what the org has and needs, contend with luck. 

2022: Core of the team gets younger, augmented with a key acquisition or two. Hopeful contention as there's a feeling that the team is definitely on the upswing, but it will also be a year to let the young players--notably Adell, Marsh, Detmers, and Rodriguez--get their sea legs.

2023: Last couple years, and Eppler's work, comes to fruition. Upton off the books. Young guys starting to perform, with more on their way. Should be a solid contender.

2024+: Team gets stronger as young players come into their prime, even as Trout and Rendon start slipping. The two are the Elder Statesmen of the new young team.

 

If we are doing that let's just trade Trout!.  He will be 33 or 34 when we are supposed to be good!

No I am not advocating trading Trout.  I just think we owe it to him to build a winner and not rebuild for three or four years.

Edited February 8, 2021 by stormngt

[Torridd]

On 2/6/2021 at 2:39 PM, Angelsjunky said:

There's been a lot of head-scratching at Perry Minasian's moves this offseason as he has eschewed multi-year deals and added minimal if any premier talent (depending upon how you consider Raisel Iglesias).

Now while I don't like the Cobb trade (as the Angels could have found similar talent on the free agent market without giving up Jahmai Jones), I am starting to see a bigger picture that could explain his thinking. I'm not saying that I have definitive proof that this is what Minasian has in mind, but kind of like the hypothetical Planet X, there's lots of secondary evidence that supports my theory, even if the plan (or planet) hasn't been directly seen.

After acquiring Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, the Angels now have, along with Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, four veteran starters who will be free agents after 2021. So too will be their new closer, Raisel Iglesias, as well as their two position player acquisitions, Dexter Fowler and Kurt Suzuki.

Now consider the farm system. It has a lot of projectable, but largely unproven, talent. Of especial interest to the near future, the team has two very good outfielders in Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh who should be ready sometime this season, and two starters in Reid Detmers and Chris Rodriguez, who also have a chance of major league readiness; if not in 2021, then as possible starters in 2022. 

After those four, they have several starters who could either be #4-5 starters or solid relievers in Hector Yan, Aaron Hernandez, Oliver Ortega, Pack Naughton, etc, as well as a third stud outfielder in Jordyn Adams who could be ready sometime in 2022. The bulk of the rest of the talent is very inexperienced, but with some upside.

In other words, Minasian has inherited a very interesting farm system, but also a very inexperienced one.

Back to the central thesis (of which the farm system will support in a moment): What can we say about Perry's offseason moves? Well, one thing we can say that he's done is raise the floor on the team's performance. He hasn't turned what looked like an 85-win team a couple months ago into a 90 or 95 win team, but he has increased its likelihood that it will reach 85 wins (plus or minus), and perhaps slightly upped the chances of 90.

But of relevance to my thesis, he's done it without adding future payroll considerations. As mentioned, Iglesias, Quintana, Cobb, Fowler, and Suzuki are only paid through 2021, joining Pujols, Bundy, and Heaney, and followed by Upton after 2022.

So what is my thesis? Minasian is trying to both improve the team, but without adding long-term commitments. Why? Because he wants to take a year to assess the internal talent, so he can make choices that will positively impact the long-term health and strength of the organization. And he's doing so in a way that may actually add talent via trades. To illustrate, let me offer two possibilities for the 2021 season, from the perspective of where we might be at in July:

One, more has gone right than wrong and the Angels are in contention. They keep their players, and maybe use excess minor league talent to improve the team for the stretch run.

Two, the Angels are falling out of contention, or out all together. All of a sudden they have four veteran starters and a reliever that could bring in significant minor league talent. They can move aside veterans to give young players like Adell, Marsh, Detmers, etc, a shot.

Meaning, Perry has made his various acquisitions with an eye for both minimizing long-term investments and/or, if the team is not in contention, possibly trading them.

By July we should have the answers to some very important questions for the future: Can Shohei Ohtani be a pitcher, or should the Angels start thinking about him converting to hitting only? How close are Detmers and Rodriguez to being major leaguers? How good is Griffin Canning? Was Dylan Bundy's breakout in 2020 real? Who are Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval, really? Are either of Luis Rengifo or Franklin Barreto good enough to be regulars? Are Adell and/or Marsh ready for the Show?

I get the frustration of yet another year of waiting. But given that this is Perry's first year, and the question marks surrounding the Angels farm system and many of their major leaguers, I think it is necessary and that it should pay huge dividends in 2022 and beyond. And who knows, with a weakened AL West, he might have done just enough for the Angels to at least be borderline contenders and, if not, they'll have some trade chips come late July.

This may be correct, but what happened to jumping in the job feet first? I thought the Angels planned to win now and not develop another 4-5 year plan. I really wonder if Moreno has stifled his GMs with strict pay stipulations.