Angels acquire Dexter Fowler and cash from the Cardinals for a PTBNL or cash

[Erstad Grit]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This team as currently constructed will win 85 plus games if they play 162.  

I think that's fairly realistic.

However the depth constructed makes them a better regular season team but not a better playoff team. 

Cobb over a scrub 25 times a year has some value. Cobb in the playoffs almost no value. 

Front line starting pitching  can shine in the playoffs. 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

All of these guys I mentioned, including Puig, are looking at the whole year. They don't just look at money, they look at situation. If Adell and/or Marsh crushes AAA, you think the Angels are going to keep them down because Puig on a 1-year deal is doing really well? If Puig is doing really well and Adell or Marsh is crushing it and ready, guess what? The Angels are 100% trading Puig for an asset and bringing them up. They are not going to block the development of their own guys so Puig can reset his value. This is absolutely true, but even if you don't think it is 100% agents for all the guys believe it's a possibility. So why sign with a team where you think you will likely get benched, platooned, or traded mid-year instead of a team that is promising a full-time job all year? 

It doesn't matter what Upton has left. They probably tried to dump his contract, but nobody is touching him with 2 years left. Next year they may be able to dump him. 

I agree they will have to trade one of those three, I just don't think it's a guarantee to be Adell or Marsh. Trout in LF, Marsh in CF and Adell in RF can be among the best outfields in the majors if they play to their talent. 

All true, but thats all based on IF either of them are actually ready or crushing it at AAA. 
Adell especially still has a lot to learn defensively.   If hes destroying they might let him learn it on the job, but thats a big if.

[ThisismineScios]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

All true, but thats all based on IF either of them are actually ready or crushing it at AAA. 
Adell especially still has a lot to learn defensively.   If hes destroying they might let him learn it on the job, but thats a big if.

I'm not saying they definitely will, that's an inexact science. I too am skeptical but hopeful. I'm saying if you are an agent advising your player on a team's potential fit, you are saying to Puig/Rosario/Joc/Eaton/Schwarber, "Their top two prospects can take your place at any time. That may not be the best place to guarantee 150 games and reset your value." 

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

I'm not saying they definitely will, that's an inexact science. I too am skeptical but hopeful. I'm saying if you are an agent advising your player on a team's potential fit, you are saying to Puig/Rosario/Joc/Eaton/Schwarber, "Their top two prospects can take your place at any time. That may not be the best place to guarantee 150 games and reset your value." 

If they are going to reset they will need to do it all season, which would make them nice trade chips at the deadline if the kids are ready as well though.  If they are getting it done they will get the at bats, 

[Angelsjunky]

The team as constructed a month ago would probably win 85 games, now they'll just win it with a smile and Veteran Presence.

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The team as constructed a month ago would probably win 85 games, now they'll just win it with a smile and Veteran Presence.

The team is better today than it was a month ago.  Not leaps and bounds but, better nonetheless. 
Not as much as we all hoped, obviously, but ... better.
Maybe went from 85 to 86, 87, lol 

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The team as constructed a month ago would probably win 85 games, now they'll just win it with a smile and Veteran Presence.

[HaloMilliVanilli]

First

[Warfarin]

Well, is Arte is true to his word about payroll "not going down," it does appear we still have some more money to spend.

So maybe that translates into another SP or a RP.  Gubicza's comment makes me think another SP deal is still in the works.  We'll see.

[Torridd]

14 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Well, with this move, I suppose that effectively sets our lineup.

2B Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, RF Fowler, C Stassi, SS Iglesias.

I read that we may still be looking for a catcher even with Suzuki.

[Lou]

Gubi doesn't know shit.

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

Gubi doesn't know shit.

He knows a lot about pitching. But if you mean he doesn't know what direction the Angels front office is going, then I think I agree with you. 

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

He knows a lot about pitching. But if you mean he doesn't know what direction the Angels front office is going, then I think I agree with you. 

Yes

[tdawg87]

After a good night's rest I had plenty of time to think this one over and I gotta be honest this trade still sucks horse dick.

Also, you guys really gotta stop with the "money off the books" narrative. Minasian has 9 roster spots to fill next year. Could even be 10 if Walsh doesn't hit. He might have a "clean slate" but there's literally 4 starting pitchers becoming free agents. We're praying on the farm system right now otherwise it's going to be another year like this one.

There will certainly be more action though! 

[Torridd]

14 hours ago, wopphil said:

Jo Adell was worth negative wins last year. Marsh could be just as bad. So could whatever other options there are. This raises the floor. And if one of the younger guys performs, they replace Fowler. 
 

I’d prefer a better option as well, but I think guys like Cobb, Suzuki, and Fowler replace garbage production with mediocre production (at very little cost). 

I agree with respect to Fowler and Suzuki, but not Cobb. I think Barria can do the same job and, if he's blocked or not, we didn't have to give up Jones.

[Torridd]

14 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yup. I'm guessing with a ton of payroll coming off we could be suitors for Story and a SP like McCullers or Syndergaard, plus trades! 

I don't know Chuck. The last two years I've hoped for Cole and Bauer and gotten zero and zero. 

[Junkballer]

5 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I agree with respect to Fowler and Suzuki, but not Cobb. I think Barria can do the same job and, if he's blocked or not, we didn't have to give up Jones.

Cobb upgrades the bullpen by moving Barria there as a swingman.  At least that appears to be their thinking and hopefully Barria can adopt a relievers mindset.

[Angels 1961]

24 minutes ago, Lou said:

Gubi doesn't know shit.

Yes he does do you not listen to his Gubies Tueday's

[34red4]

Angels 2020 Payroll: $176M

Angels 2021 Payroll: $173M (Estimated as of 2/4)

[Torridd]

12 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

No. 

He might have some concerns with my incessant games of Slap-Ass, though.

 

That was hilarious!

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I don't know Chuck. The last two years I've hoped for Cole and Bauer and gotten zero and zero. 

But so did 28 fan-bases out of the other 30 teams. We've got to remember that only one team gets the premier free agent.

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

All of these guys I mentioned, including Puig, are looking at the whole year. They don't just look at money, they look at situation. If Adell and/or Marsh crushes AAA, you think the Angels are going to keep them down because Puig on a 1-year deal is doing really well? If Puig is doing really well and Adell or Marsh is crushing it and ready, guess what? The Angels are 100% trading Puig for an asset and bringing them up. They are not going to block the development of their own guys so Puig can reset his value. This is absolutely true, but even if you don't think it is 100% agents for all the guys believe it's a possibility. So why sign with a team where you think you will likely get benched, platooned, or traded mid-year instead of a team that is promising a full-time job all year? 

It doesn't matter what Upton has left. They probably tried to dump his contract, but nobody is touching him with 2 years left. Next year they may be able to dump him. 

I agree they will have to trade one of those three, I just don't think it's a guarantee to be Adell or Marsh. Trout in LF, Marsh in CF and Adell in RF can be among the best outfields in the majors if they play to their talent. 

Forgive me but in your hypothetical scenario:  if Puig is doing well, Adell and Marsh both stay at AAA for the year.  You are not hurting their development!

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

After a good night's rest I had plenty of time to think this one over and I gotta be honest this trade still sucks horse dick.

Also, you guys really gotta stop with the "money off the books" narrative. Minasian has 9 roster spots to fill next year. Could even be 10 if Walsh doesn't hit. He might have a "clean slate" but there's literally 4 starting pitchers becoming free agents. We're praying on the farm system right now otherwise it's going to be another year like this one.

There will certainly be more action though! 

Let me ask you a question. How good would Dexter Fowler need to perform in order for you to like this deal, or at the very least think it's ok? 

Assuming the Angels didn't give up a prospect of considerable value (not a guarantee since Minasian screwed up the Jones-Cobb trade royally), the Angels are basically getting Fowler for 1.75 million. The going trend of 1 win above replacement essential costing 8 million dollars would mean that it Fowler was even worth 0.2 WAR, the team would break even. He accomplished that in a mere 31 games last year.

With the exception of 2018, Fowler has been a solid bet to be worth at minimum 1.5 wins above replacement. 

If he's worth 2 wins above replacement like I think he will be, and his relative excess value is around 14 million, would you be good with the trade?

What if he was only worth 1 win above replacement?

Edited February 5, 2021 by Second Base

[Torridd]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

But so did 28 fan-bases out of the other 30 teams. We've got to remember that only one team gets the premier free agent.

I don't think that can be used as an excuse every season though. We got Rendon and others. I think we'll just have to outbid to get a good starter too.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

The team is better today than it was a month ago.  Not leaps and bounds but, better nonetheless. 
Not as much as we all hoped, obviously, but ... better.
Maybe went from 85 to 86, 87, lol 

As of right now, the pitcher who had the 2nd best ERA (Barria) will be replaced with Cobb.  I am not sure how much better we are.