Angels acquire Dexter Fowler and cash from the Cardinals for a PTBNL or cash

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, stormngt said:

As of right now, the pitcher who had the 2nd best ERA (Barria) will be replaced with Cobb.  I am not sure how much better we are.

Barría only pitched 23 innings as a starter last year.

[Docwaukee]

43 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

After a good night's rest I had plenty of time to think this one over and I gotta be honest this trade still sucks horse dick.

Also, you guys really gotta stop with the "money off the books" narrative. Minasian has 9 roster spots to fill next year. Could even be 10 if Walsh doesn't hit. He might have a "clean slate" but there's literally 4 starting pitchers becoming free agents. We're praying on the farm system right now otherwise it's going to be another year like this one.

There will certainly be more action though! 

I've been trying to point this out since October.  

[Angels in 2030]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I've been trying to point this out since October.  

I'm in the same boat as ya'all

[CanadianHalo]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I've been trying to point this out since October.  

With all the turnover likely happening next offseason and the need for the youth to step up this team will most likely experience a lot of growing pains next season. 
 

Which is why losing out on Bauer really sucks. This was the year they probably should have gone for it. All these veteran moves would be a very nice compliment to signing a TOR arm. 

[eligrba4ever]

The PTBN or cash in the Fowler deal means maybe sending back some of the $12.75 million the Cards are sending with him to cover his $14.75 million salary. The Angels are only paying him $2 million. 

There were some incorrect guesses among the first 25 or 30 posts 18 hours ago. I am not planning to scroll throw the 300 or so since then, but I assume those perceptions have been clarified along the way.

$2 million for a veteran who still may have something in the tank is not bad.

Adell gets time to catch up and polish his batting and fielding. Maddon gets a player he seems to have confidence can still provide what the Angels need when the season begins. 

 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

With all the turnover likely happening next offseason and the need for the youth to step up this team will most likely experience a lot of growing pains next season. 
 

Which is why losing out on Bauer really sucks. This was the year they probably should have gone for it. All these veteran moves would be a very nice compliment to signing a TOR arm. 

unless they have considerable concerns about Bauer being that guy which I think they do.  He was a beast in 2018 and for 11 starts last year.  Otherwise, his peripherals equate to a guy with an ERA around 4.00.  He doesn't need to anchor a rotation for LAD or the Mets.  He would here and if he doesn't then it's a major problem.  Paying that kind of money means you have to be fairly confident he's gonna be at least a #2.  If you're not, then you don't sign him.  

Point is, he's far from the conventional TOR arm.  And you have to live with his personality which clearly isn't plug and play.  

[failos]

When’s the press conference?

[CanadianHalo]

Just now, Dochalo said:

unless they have considerable concerns about Bauer being that guy which I think they do.  He was a beast in 2018 and for 11 starts last year.  Otherwise, his peripherals equate to a guy with an ERA around 4.00.  He doesn't need to anchor a rotation for LAD or the Mets.  He would here and if he doesn't then it's a major problem.  Paying that kind of money means you have to be fairly confident he's gonna be at least a #2.  If you're not, then you don't sign him.  

Point is, he's far from the conventional TOR arm.  And you have to live with his personality which clearly isn't plug and play.  

And that’s all fine if they didn’t think he was worth it but they do need to acquire a TOR arm before this seasons starts. 

But it’s February 5th and that doesn’t look very likely at this point 

[Biergott]

F Bauer, We Got Fowler.   Print the shirts

[tdawg87]

58 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Let me ask you a question. How good would Dexter Fowler need to perform in order for you to like this deal, or at the very least think it's ok? 

Assuming the Angels didn't give up a prospect of considerable value (not a guarantee since Minasian screwed up the Jones-Cobb trade royally), the Angels are basically getting Fowler for 1.75 million. The going trend of 1 win above replacement essential costing 8 million dollars would mean that it Fowler was even worth 0.2 WAR, the team would break even. He accomplished that in a mere 31 games last year.

With the exception of 2018, Fowler has been a solid bet to be worth at minimum 1.5 wins above replacement. 

If he's worth 2 wins above replacement like I think he will be, and his relative excess value is around 14 million, would you be good with the trade?

What if he was only worth 1 win above replacement?

I think 2 is considered "average", right? If he puts up a 2 WAR I will absolutely be satisfied. That's a significant change over last season.

1? Eh, still an upgrade. I'd be satisfied. 

I'm just waiting to see who we gave up. If it's a top 10 guy then fuck that shit. Hell even top 20. Fowler is not worth that. But then again, neither was Cobb.

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think 2 is considered "average", right? If he puts up a 2 WAR I will absolutely be satisfied. That's a significant change over last season.

1? Eh, still an upgrade. I'd be satisfied. 

I'm just waiting to see who we gave up. If it's a top 10 guy then fuck that shit. Hell even top 20. Fowler is not worth that. But then again, neither was Cobb.

Or we'll just give them a little bit of cash. 

It won't be a top prospect.

[Hubs]

40 minutes ago, eligrba4ever said:

The PTBN or cash in the Fowler deal means maybe sending back some of the $12.75 million the Cards are sending with him to cover his $14.75 million salary. The Angels are only paying him $2 million. 

There were some incorrect guesses among the first 25 or 30 posts 18 hours ago. I am not planning to scroll throw the 300 or so since then, but I assume those perceptions have been clarified along the way.

$2 million for a veteran who still may have something in the tank is not bad.

Adell gets time to catch up and polish his batting and fielding. Maddon gets a player he seems to have confidence can still provide what the Angels need when the season begins. 

 

It’s 16.5, so 1.75 is correct.

I suppose they have the option of paying some cash back in lieu of a prospect, but this isn’t gonna be a guy in the top 20. Maybe someone like Packy Naughton or Ortega or something

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

As of right now, the pitcher who had the 2nd best ERA (Barria) will be replaced with Cobb.  I am not sure how much better we are.

In 6 man rotation Barria starts season as number 6. They will bring Ohtani along slowly, I say he does not pitch until mid to late May

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Lou said:

Or we'll just give them a little bit of cash. 

It won't be a top prospect.

We'll see.

[Lou]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

We'll see.

No shit. 

[tdawg87]

Just now, Lou said:

No shit. 

[Lou]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

No shit

[Docwaukee]

48 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

And that’s all fine if they didn’t think he was worth it but they do need to acquire a TOR arm before this seasons starts. 

But it’s February 5th and that doesn’t look very likely at this point 

we don't need one.  as much as people want to believe it's the case, teams win a WS with decent rotations all the time.  I agree it probably needs to be better than it is but Trevor Bauer at 40m wasn't the answer.  

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think 2 is considered "average", right? If he puts up a 2 WAR I will absolutely be satisfied. That's a significant change over last season.

1? Eh, still an upgrade. I'd be satisfied. 

I'm just waiting to see who we gave up. If it's a top 10 guy then fuck that shit. Hell even top 20. Fowler is not worth that. But then again, neither was Cobb.

That's fair. Since it's a PTBNL or cash, this likely means it's not a player of consequence. It used to be, because of the rule that a prospect couldn't be traded within one year of being drafted, but they've since changed that. Rarely is a PTBNL a top 30 prospect, even on a weak farm. Just as a frame of reference, when Eppler dealt Cron to Tampa Bay, he chose the PTBNL over the cash and that player was Rengifo. However, at the time Luis Rengifo was a utility infielder that hit .250 in A Ball. Half the time, teams just take the cash which is frequently something like $50,000, doesn't change much.

So 2 wins above replacement is generally regarded as an average starting position player. As a reference, David Freeze was with 2 WAR reach year he was with the Angels, making him what you may consider a relatively average starting 3B. 

In his career before St. Louis, Fowler averaged around 2-3 WAR. 2018 notwithstanding, he's been a 1.5 WAR player in St. Louis. 

It seems reasonable that at this point, Fowler will likely hit something like .250 with a .350 OBP, and hit 15 HR and probably get rested against good LHP. Probably worth 1.5 WAR replacement, or a 12 million dollar value. 

[Angelsjunky]

Conspiracy theory: Arte isn’t allowing multi-year deals because he wants to clear guaranteed money to sell after either next year (Pujols) or 2022 (Upton). 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[ScottT]

19 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

In 6 man rotation Barria starts season as number 6. They will bring Ohtani along slowly, I say he does not pitch until mid to late May

Why?

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Barría only pitched 23 innings as a starter last year.

That's Maddons fault.  He pitched well in 2018 as well.

I am not saying he is our second best pitcher but I am willing to bet he would put up better numbers than Cobb. 

[Angels 1961]

43 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Why?

Who's number 6 to start season? I told you I think they bring Ohtani along slowly. Unless Angels get another starter I feel Barria is number 6.

[ScottT]

I don't know why the Angels would bring Ohtani along slowly.  Can't remember the latest news, but did his arm fall off over the winter?

[failos]

1 minute ago, ScottT said:

I don't know why the Angels would bring Ohtani along slowly.  Can't remember the latest news, but did his arm fall off over the winter?

His arm is perpetually falling off.