WS winning pitching fWAR last 15 years

[floplag]

I came across this on twitter and thought I would share it for discussion sake:
Note there are two charts, starters and relivers although i think it duplicated the starters when i added the second.  

 

 

[floplag]

Updated to include offense (At our own @Jeff Fletcher request I believe in one chart. 

 

[BTH]

I think what that shows is that the Angels REALLY need to add more to the bullpen. If they have a good offense and bullpen, they can get by with a mediocre rotation.

[gotbeer]

Hopefully Fletcher gets his wish and he puts it all in one chart.  looks like one can carry the other two.  But more often than not, you need 2 in the top 10 to carry 1.

 

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Hopefully Fletcher gets his wish and he puts it all in one chart.  looks like one can carry the other two.  But more often than not, you need 2 in the top 10 to carry 1.

 

See last update above, chart with off/SP/RP all in one. 

[Angel Oracle]

8 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Hopefully Fletcher gets his wish and he puts it all in one chart.  looks like one can carry the other two.  But more often than not, you need 2 in the top 10 to carry 1.

 

Yep, Giants 2014 were the most recent to only have 1 of the 3 in the top 10.

[Pancake Bear]

Allow me:

[Blarg]

The reliance on bullpen tells you where the focus should be for the Angels since their starting staff will not be past middling in the league. 

[Blarg]

Also, in the past a team that had a three inning shut down bullpen ruled baseball. Now those inning are extending to four and five in the payoffs and World Series. 

[floplag]

21 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Allow me:

Thank you for that i didnt have the time as im trying to actually get some work done
Interesting that there are a lot more single digits in the offense column, than the rest... all but one in fact.  That bodes well for us if we finish the off season work.

 

He also added our projections for '21 as of today:
For 2021
Offensive projection: 23.3 fWAR 6th
SP projections: 11.6 fWAR 17th
RP projections: 2.7 fWAR 11th

[Angel Oracle]

Ironic because the 2014 Giants were the last of four straight WS champs to only have 1 of the 3 in the top 10

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ironic because the 2014 Giants were the last of four straight WS champs to only have 1 of the 3 in the top 10

How the hades did they pull that off with the other two in the bottom 5ish... wow.   Talk about getting hot at the right time. 

[Chuck]

37 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Allow me:

Thank you, much cleaner than some HS student's tweet. 

[Taylor]

44 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Allow me:

I averaged them out to rank the WS teams by overall dominance:

1. 2009 Yankees: 4.67
T-2. 2020 Dodgers: 5.00
T-2. 2017 Astros: 5.00*
4. 2007 Red Sox: 6.67
5. 2008 Phillies: 7.00
6. 2010 Giants: 7.33
7. 2018 Red Sox: 7.67
8. 2016 Cubs: 8.00
9. 2005 White Sox: 8.33
10. 2013 Red Sox: 8.67
T-11. 2019 Nationals: 10.67
T-11. 2015 Royals: 10.67
12. 2012 Giants: 15.67
13. 2011 Cardinals: 16.33
14. 2014 Giants: 18.33
15. 2006 Cardinals: 19.33

*Cheaters
 

[Second Base]

It was once my job to take complicated data and simplify it so that the higher you could use it. 

What would I pass on from the data given here? Be really good at hitting and pitching and you may win the World Series. 

But seriously, varying degree of excellence seems loosely dependent upon achievement in other categories. In other words, your offense doesn't have to be the best of your starting pitching is top 5. Starting pitching doesn't even need to be top 5 if your bullpen is top 5. You would be considered a strong team if all three were even slightly better than average. 

[AngelsFanSince86]

27 minutes ago, floplag said:

How the hades did they pull that off with the other two in the bottom 5ish... wow.   Talk about getting hot at the right time. 

In 2014 because of Madison Bumgarner

[Docwaukee]

so it's mostly about having a good offense.  

[Second Base]

So in this respect, I can understand what Minasian is doing. From the looks of it, his budgetary constraints put the number he could spend this winter between 20-30 million. By most measures, he's spent around 20 this year. 

Rather than spending 30 on Bauer to create a dramatic increase in starting pitching, he's identified the issue with rotation being at the back end, and solidified that. It's a smart move because it creates a more even distribution of value, value that isn't tied to one single pitcher. 

He's also used those funds to upgrade the back end of the bullpen, a bullpen that led the league in blown saves last season. And finally, you have to figure that with whatever remaining funds he has available to him, Minasian will likely get a 4th outfielder that is defensively adequate to shore things up depth wise, and increase the defense and thus improve the pitching. 

I figure he likely has between 4-9 million left to allocate within a single year budget. That will likely go to one more outfielder and one more reliever. If we go with the middle and say he has 6.5 million left to spend, 3.25 million per acquisition if they were equally allocated, I figure they'll sign Brian Goodwin and Shane Greene and call it an off-season.

Goodwin would split time in the corner OF with Ward, and Greene would serve in a middle relief or set up role.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Second Base

[ScottT]

I used to look up basic runs scored and runs allowed of World Series winners.  At one point, even with the wild cards, it was rare to see World Series champs that weren't at least average in both.  Those Cardinals and Giants teams ruined that for a few years, but it seems to have bounced back to where it was before.... 2014 Giants were the last ones to overcome being below average in one or the other.

[floplag]

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

so it's mostly about having a good offense.  

And at least one of the other two.
Consider where we are now, we could easily still jump the pen into the top 10, rotation not so much.
And there is room to potentially upgrade the offense as well that wont cost a ton.

[Angelsjunky]

It supports what I've been trying to say, again and again: You don't "need" to have a great, or even good, rotation to win the WS. You probably need either a very good rotation or rotation, but not both. 

What you do need is a very good offense. Every team is top 10 (with the caveat, that probably includes defense).

[Pancake Bear]

Also worth noting: Playoffs are largely a crapshoot. The better you are, the better your chances, but usually the best team doesn't have more than a 60% chance, iirc, at beating the worst team in a short series. 

That's why we see, e.g. the 2014 Giants. Make it to the playoffs and hope you catch fire. The better you are, the less luck you'll need. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Thank you for that i didnt have the time as im trying to actually get some work done
Interesting that there are a lot more single digits in the offense column, than the rest... all but one in fact.  That bodes well for us if we finish the off season work.

 

He also added our projections for '21 as of today:
For 2021
Offensive projection: 23.3 fWAR 6th
SP projections: 11.6 fWAR 17th
RP projections: 2.7 fWAR 11th

I actually saw it on Twitter and went on excel right after to put it together. Thought I'd come on and make a thread - you beat me to it by a few minutes. When I saw the thread, I didn't see you'd already put one together (it looked like the original tweet when I skimmed through) until after I posted mine. 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

I actually saw it on Twitter and went on excel right after to put it together. Thought I'd come on and make a thread - you beat me to it by a few minutes. When I saw the thread, I didn't see you'd already put one together (it looked like the original tweet when I skimmed through) until after I posted mine. 

Yeah yours was much more compatible for forum viewing   Thanks again.

[Torridd]

Also, re the Giants, does the "24" explain the entire bullpen? That is, maybe they were so terrible early and got replaced late in the season? Maybe two short relievers were very good and everyone else was crap?