Where do we go from here?

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

 

I think his point is, if you need a SP and a RF and have $30m to spend don't spend all of it on a SP and skip the RF. Either find more money to get both or spend less on the pitcher.

I get that point but if Bauer at $30 million along with Ward in RF adds more value than any pitcher you bring in along with any outfielder you bring in that combined make $30 million then you go with Bauer. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I get that point but if Bauer at $30 million along with Ward in RF adds more value than any pitcher you bring in along with any outfielder you bring in that combined make $30 million then you go with Bauer. 

I think it depends on the arrangement of players. Bauer is a huge upgrade for us but there is a lot of potential for the downside risk in right field to erase much of the value he'll add. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think it depends on the arrangement of players. Bauer is a huge upgrade for us but there is a lot of potential for the downside risk in right field to erase much of the value he'll add. 

If all else fails you put Fletcher in RF and put Rengifo at 2nd. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I get that point but if Bauer at $30 million along with Ward in RF adds more value than any pitcher you bring in along with any outfielder you bring in that combined make $30 million then you go with Bauer. 

Exactly. Bauer + Ward isn't pretty in RF, but it's a whole lot better overall than, say, Odorizzi and Pederson. 

 

Depending on how much Arte is still willing to spend (could be anywhere from 5-10m, to possibly as much as 25-30m if he's really feeling like spending money. (Doubtful). If we're looking at Hand and still hoping to bring in another starter, I don't see how we could possible have less than 15-20m at least.

If its on the low end, we aren't getting much. I'd say realistic best case at this point, is probably something like:

Hand, Goodwin, Odorizzi/Gray (depending on how reluctant Minasian is to deal from the farm).

Bauer might be possible if it's backloaded to something like 25m on payroll this year. But i don't see any way it's under 30m aav. But if we do sign him, no one should expect anything else other than maybe a defensive replacement option for OF and a league minimum reliever. 

[Revad]

We’re we thinking about more pitching?

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

 

I think his point is, if you need a SP and a RF and have $30m to spend don't spend all of it on a SP and skip the RF. Either find more money to get both or spend less on the pitcher.

Thank you

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thank you

We understood you, most of us simply disagree that that argument makes any sense at all as a plan to improve the team.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If all else fails you put Fletcher in RF and put Rengifo at 2nd. 

And how many games do we give away before we get there? What if Rengifo repeats his 2020? What if Upton doesn't have anything left in the tank? 

[Stradling]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

And how many games do we give away before we get there? What if Rengifo repeats his 2020? What if Upton doesn't have anything left in the tank? 

Then we will be in a tough spot.  Would you rather get another #3 starter and a decent but not great RFer?  We can always find what ifs.  What if Ward and Walsh go back to how they were prior to last year?  What if Trout gets hurt?  What if Heaney stubs his vagina?  What if Baltimore Bundy returns?  I am just saying I would much rather have the Ace in Bauer and Ward in RF than Odorizzi and Jackie Bradley Jr in RF.  

[Pancake Bear]

Would be hard to be worse defensively than Adell was last year. Rengifo also likely wouldn't be any worse. That doesn't cost us games, but having no real improvement on pitching does.

I can't seriously believe people are arguing we need an improvement on RF and we can settle for meh in the rotation. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Stradling said:

Then we will be in a tough spot.  Would you rather get another #3 starter and a decent but not great RFer?  We can always find what ifs.  What if Ward and Walsh go back to how they were prior to last year?  What if Trout gets hurt?  What if Heaney stubs his vagina?  What if Baltimore Bundy returns?  I am just saying I would much rather have the Ace in Bauer and Ward in RF than Odorizzi and Jackie Bradley Jr in RF.  

I'm only mentioning things that actually happened last year, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see it happening again, especially if we don't make any roster changes.

I think it's likely Heaney stubs his vagina, and adding another decent starter will go a long way to mitigate that. Right now we have 5 solid starters, plus Ohtani, so as much as I'd like Bauer I think he becomes a bit of a luxury if the alternative is someone like Odorizzi. 

When I look at this team as it is currently constructed I am a little concerned about a lack of above average innings from the starters (obviously) and the potential for negative production from the outfield. The pitching overall wasn't as bad last year as it seemed, but a league worst defense, particularly in the corner outfield, really hurt them. I don't think that should be ignored.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Would be hard to be worse defensively than Adell was last year. Rengifo also likely wouldn't be any worse. That doesn't cost us games,

That is exactly what it does.

We finished 8 games under .500 last year. Our era was .6 runs per game above our FIP. That's 3 or 4 games last year, 9 games over a full season. That's not all on RF but we were actually pretty decent on the infield.

[Turd Ferguson]

Let's just sign Odorizzi, Hand, and Mazara and get this over with.

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

That is exactly what it does.

We finished 8 games under .500 last year. Our era was .6 runs per game above our FIP. That's 3 or 4 games last year, 9 games over a full season. That's not all on RF but we were actually pretty decent on the infield.

Fangraphs lists the Angels at -0.6 at RF last season as a position. The best team in RF was the Dodgers at 3 WAR. So, that's the gap between first and last. Regardless of what we do, we aren't getting Mookie Betts in RF this offseason. If we'd gotten 1 WAR out of RF, that would be 15th in baseball. That's reasonable to hope for. Basically, you could argue RF across the board cost us 1.5 games last season.

Now, starting pitching. We ranked at 21/30 despite Bundy and Heaney both rating well, and Canning and Barria being solid as well. So why are we so low? Those four pitchers put up 4.6 WAR between them in just over 210 IP. Meanwhile, Teheran and Sandoval put up -1.1 WAR in 52 innings. The other 7 innings were between four starters, who managed to lose another -0.6 WAR. If those 59 innings (adjust for a full season) were started by someone actually good? It not only subtracts the negative value of 1.7 WAR they lost, it adds anywhere from 1-3 WAR above that. A Bauer puts us in the top five among starting rotations. Even an Odorizzi gets us up to the top ten.

So, to review: A solid improvement in RF gets us a 1.5 improvement in the standings. On the other hand, replacing the fifth rotation spot with a competent pitcher adds over 2.5 wins. Figure that over a whole season and it's obvious which improvement is more important.

By contrast, a Goodwin pickup costs little and doesn't lose us games. Another Teheran situation and whoever else ends up filling that role whenever that pitching slot comes up, and we're losing 5+ games a season.

With Bauer instead, we're going from -5 wins to a positive 5 wins. That's a ten game shift.

Now tell me more about how RF is such a desperate need that we should fill our last pitching slot on the cheap. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

15 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Now tell me more about how RF is such a desperate need that we should fill our last pitching slot on the cheap. 

The hypothetical is getting a guy like Odorizzi and Bradley or Pederson instead of Bauer alone.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

We understood you, most of us simply disagree that that argument makes any sense at all as a plan to improve the team.

Which wasnt the point of the comment.
 

[Pancake Bear]

38 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The hypothetical is getting a guy like Odorizzi and Bradley or Pederson instead of Bauer alone.

Fair enough.

2020

SP5 deficit: 1.7 WAR. Over a full season, that's roughly 5 games, but we'll call it -3 wins, to be conservative.

Bauer put up 2.5 wins in 2020. That equals a 4.2 win shift in 2020. In 2021, we'll again be conservative and say he's worth 5 wins.

He put up half half that in less than half a season. His last healthy season (2018), he put up 5.8 wins.

Guesstimating for 2020, that would improve us roughly 8 wins.

RF deficit: 0.6 WAR.

If we're signing Bauer, our assumption was we have no money for anything pricey. So add in a Goodwin (0.1 WAR in 2020) - we'll ignore 2019 to be fair and call RF a straight replacement level player. No negative, no positive.

So, doing nothing but signing Bauer and Goodwin, we have about a 0.5 improvement.

Total for 2020 = +8.5 wins

JBJ: 1.5 wins in 2020, 1.5 in 2019. We'll be generous and say he's worth 3 wins over a full season.

Joc: -0.1 in 2020, 3.0 in 2019, 2.7 in 2018. We'll say 2.5 wins.

Odorizzi didn't play enough in 2020 to gauge his value, but he put up 4.3 and 2.8 over the previous two years. We'll tale the over and say 3.5.

That puts us at a 6.5 improvement with JBJ and Odorizzi vs. a 8.5 win Bauer and a flat 0 in RF

And that's despite being somewhat conservative on the Bauer end while being extremely generous on win estimates for the Odorizzi/RF side.

Since we've yet to hear they're actually even looking at improvement in RF beyond a Goodwin type, let's say we stick with Odorizzi and Goodwin, and add someone like Brad Hand.

Hand put up 4.3 WAR in 2019, but 0 in 2020. 2018 he had a 2.6 value. He never did better than 2.9 other than that. For the heck of it, we'll call it 3 wins, despite their being warning signs that suggest he may be much worse and the general volatility of relievers.

For innings he'd replace, we put up about a negative 1 in 2020. Only taking out the worst of the worst, I could have Hand cover 2 wins in 2019, making a +5 overall shift if everything works out perfect.

Hand + Odorizzi + Goodwin = 9 wins vs. Bauer + Goodwin at 8.5

That's assuming Hand actually results in a 5 win shift, which is highly unlikely. Either way, that's about the best I could come up with without trading from the farm.

Either way, Goodwin will only cost a couple mil compared to JBJ or Joc who will likely run 10+. Joc was a disaster this year, and JBJ made 11m last year. I doubt he's making less than that. Plus, a good portion of his value is tied to playing CF. He wouldn't be playing that here, meaning his WAR value drops.

 

tl;dr: While one could make a case that it's better to not put all your eggs in one basket, I think it's obvious that we'd be better off staying cheap in RF and going big at SP. Best case for option B and the value difference is a wash, but that's only for actually making it to the playoffs. Once you're in the playoffs, the top end SP will be worth a good deal more.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think it's likely Heaney stubs his vagina

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Fangraphs lists the Angels at -0.6 at RF last season as a position. The best team in RF was the Dodgers at 3 WAR. So, that's the gap between first and last. Regardless of what we do, we aren't getting Mookie Betts in RF this offseason. If we'd gotten 1 WAR out of RF, that would be 15th in baseball. That's reasonable to hope for. Basically, you could argue RF across the board cost us 1.5 games last season.

Now, starting pitching. We ranked at 21/30 despite Bundy and Heaney both rating well, and Canning and Barria being solid as well. So why are we so low? Those four pitchers put up 4.6 WAR between them in just over 210 IP. Meanwhile, Teheran and Sandoval put up -1.1 WAR in 52 innings. The other 7 innings were between four starters, who managed to lose another -0.6 WAR. If those 59 innings (adjust for a full season) were started by someone actually good? It not only subtracts the negative value of 1.7 WAR they lost, it adds anywhere from 1-3 WAR above that. A Bauer puts us in the top five among starting rotations. Even an Odorizzi gets us up to the top ten.

So, to review: A solid improvement in RF gets us a 1.5 improvement in the standings. On the other hand, replacing the fifth rotation spot with a competent pitcher adds over 2.5 wins. Figure that over a whole season and it's obvious which improvement is more important.

By contrast, a Goodwin pickup costs little and doesn't lose us games. Another Teheran situation and whoever else ends up filling that role whenever that pitching slot comes up, and we're losing 5+ games a season.

With Bauer instead, we're going from -5 wins to a positive 5 wins. That's a ten game shift.

Now tell me more about how RF is such a desperate need that we should fill our last pitching slot on the cheap. 

im assuming this is what you are referring to in your other post.
What your missing here is that no one is saying we need a RF or Bauer.
The point is that you still get a pitcher (Odorizzi/Paxton/etc...) and the RF, and maybe a bullpen arm for the same 30M, not either or.
Now if i have my way we would do Bauer, Hand, and the OF, but that certainly doesnt fit in the 30M.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, floplag said:

im assuming this is what you are referring to in your other post.
What your missing here is that no one is saying we need a RF or Bauer.
The point is that you still get a pitcher (Odorizzi/Paxton/etc...) and the RF, and maybe a bullpen arm for the same 30M, not either or.
Now if i have my way we would do Bauer, Hand, and the OF, but that certainly doesnt fit in the 30M.

 

44 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Fair enough.

2020

SP5 deficit: 1.7 WAR. Over a full season, that's roughly 5 games, but we'll call it -3 wins, to be conservative.

Bauer put up 2.5 wins in 2020. That equals a 4.2 win shift in 2020. In 2021, we'll again be conservative and say he's worth 5 wins.

He put up half half that in less than half a season. His last healthy season (2018), he put up 5.8 wins.

Guesstimating for 2020, that would improve us roughly 8 wins.

RF deficit: 0.6 WAR.

If we're signing Bauer, our assumption was we have no money for anything pricey. So add in a Goodwin (0.1 WAR in 2020) - we'll ignore 2019 to be fair and call RF a straight replacement level player. No negative, no positive.

So, doing nothing but signing Bauer and Goodwin, we have about a 0.5 improvement.

Total for 2020 = +8.5 wins

JBJ: 1.5 wins in 2020, 1.5 in 2019. We'll be generous and say he's worth 3 wins over a full season.

Joc: -0.1 in 2020, 3.0 in 2019, 2.7 in 2018. We'll say 2.5 wins.

Odorizzi didn't play enough in 2020 to gauge his value, but he put up 4.3 and 2.8 over the previous two years. We'll tale the over and say 3.5.

That puts us at a 6.5 improvement with JBJ and Odorizzi vs. a 8.5 win Bauer and a flat 0 in RF

And that's despite being somewhat conservative on the Bauer end while being extremely generous on win estimates for the Odorizzi/RF side.

Since we've yet to hear they're actually even looking at improvement in RF beyond a Goodwin type, let's say we stick with Odorizzi and Goodwin, and add someone like Brad Hand.

Hand put up 4.3 WAR in 2019, but 0 in 2020. 2018 he had a 2.6 value. He never did better than 2.9 other than that. For the heck of it, we'll call it 3 wins, despite their being warning signs that suggest he may be much worse and the general volatility of relievers.

For innings he'd replace, we put up about a negative 1 in 2020. Only taking out the worst of the worst, I could have Hand cover 2 wins in 2019, making a +5 overall shift if everything works out perfect.

Hand + Odorizzi + Goodwin = 9 wins vs. Bauer + Goodwin at 8.5

That's assuming Hand actually results in a 5 win shift, which is highly unlikely. Either way, that's about the best I could come up with without trading from the farm.

Either way, Goodwin will only cost a couple mil compared to JBJ or Joc who will likely run 10+. Joc was a disaster this year, and JBJ made 11m last year. I doubt he's making less than that. Plus, a good portion of his value is tied to playing CF. He wouldn't be playing that here, meaning his WAR value drops.

 

tl;dr: While one could make a case that it's better to not put all your eggs in one basket, I think it's obvious that we'd be better off staying cheap in RF and going big at SP. Best case for option B and the value difference is a wash, but that's only for actually making it to the playoffs. Once you're in the playoffs, the top end SP will be worth a good deal more.

 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

 

See but your still hedging it here, if you're telling me that were talking about WITH Goodwin, then fine, im with that, but that wasnt the debate to my understanding it was Bauer alone, versus three.
Bauer plus Goodwin, youre 100% correct im sure. 
But again if we can swing both of those why not get creative with the Bauer money, pay him only 20 this year, and fit all three?

[Pancake Bear]

What I'm saying is find a outfield option for league minimum or at any rate no more than 1.5m and if you do your job well, you've got anything from replacement level production to 1 WAR. It's an improvement on last year without spending anything. 

I'm objecting to devoting actual budget space to an improvement that does not make best use of our available budget.

Bauer is - at least on paper - the best use of the available funds. Other holes can be filled, if needed, without spending anything Arte would quibble over. That's what I was demonstrating above. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

What I'm saying is find a outfield option for league minimum or at any rate no more than 1.5m and if you do your job well, you've got anything from replacement level production to 1 WAR. It's an improvement on last year without spending anything. 

I'm objecting to devoting actual budget space to an improvement that does not make best use of our available budget.

Bauer is - at least on paper - the best use of the available funds. Other holes can be filled, if needed, without spending anything Arte would quibble over. That's what I was demonstrating above. 

I get that, but that was not the point i was arguing against.
If its Bauer alone, versus three players, i likely go with the three.
If it Bauer plus a RF, fine.  Still leaves us weak in the pen but so be it i suppose.

[BTH]

The thing is, it's hard to get a frontline SP in the middle of the season, but you can get relievers or an outfielder. Plus, you aren't going to have to give up a large chunk of the farm system in order to acquire reliever(s) and/or an outfielder.

So if you can get Bauer, you do it because you can always add relievers/outfielders via trade if your in-house options don't work out.

[T.G.]

24 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The thing is, it's hard to get a frontline SP in the middle of the season,

July 31, 2014: Jon Lester - Traded by the Boston Red Sox  to the Oakland Athletics

August 31, 2017: Justin Verlander - Traded by the Detroit Tigers to the Houston Astros

July 7, 2008:  C.C. Sabathia - Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers

July 27, 2012: Zack Greinke - Traded by the Milwaukee Brewers to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AND July 31, 2019: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Houston Astros

July 31, 2014: David Price - Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Tampa Bay Rays to the Detroit Tigers. AND... July 30, 2015: Traded by the Detroit Tigers to the Toronto Blue Jays

June 27, 2002: Cliff Lee - Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Cleveland Indians AND July 29, 2009: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Philadelphia Phillies AND July 9, 2010: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Texas Rangers

July 26, 2015: Johnny Cueto -Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Kansas City Royals

July 26, 2000: Curt Schilling -Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies to the Arizona Diamondbacks

July 31, 1998: Randy Johnson -Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Houston Astros

And I'm sure there's plenty more...

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by T.G.