Where do we go from here?

[totdprods]

I admit, seeing Musgrove come off the board was the first instance this offseason that I started to let worry creep in. In a perfect world, Darvish and Musgrove would have been the two targets I felt were the best targets for the Angels, in my mind.Bauer obviously looms large - and with more teams filling their pitching needs while he remains a free agent, chances are improving that he winds up with the Angels. 

As it stands, I still see a few different routes the Angels can take and still come out of this offseason in great shape. 

Option 1: Trevor Bauer
This scenario banks heavily on internal improvement, which is something Minasian has emphasized this offseason. There's a very real chance that if the Angels can afford Trevor Bauer, he'll use up all of their remaining money available, and even if he's the lone addition to the rotation this winter, would it really be so bad? Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Detmers, with Ohtani once a week could be competitive if the youngsters keep improving and folks stay healthy. I'd assume the Angels would still add a cheap RP or two (think Tepera, Kintzler) perhaps a platoon-level RF (Duvall, Naquin, Pillar, Souza, Goodwin) and call it a day. Save all the prospects.

Option 2A: Spread the Wealth, Save the Prospects
This scenario sees the Angels take their remaining money, and plop it down on free agents. Maybe the rotation is rounded out with Quintana and Odorizzi; Bundy, Odorizzi, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, and Ohtani. Nothing flashy but should be effective. Maybe they drop some more coin on a right fielder like Joc Pederson or Jackie Bradley, or a utility guy like Jurickson Profar, allowing them to deal from their outfield or mid-infield prospects mid-season for an arm if need arises, something which might be much more fruitful if a minor league season takes place and prospects such as Adams, Knowles, and Deveaux and the slate of mid-infield prospects get a chance to flourish. 

Option 2B: Spread the Wealth, Deal Some Prospects
The Angels still have the prospect capital to land someone like Sonny Gray, German Marquez, Kyle Hendricks, even if those scenarios are looking more unlikely. Should a deal happen for someone of that caliber, it would very well likely cost the Angels Marsh or Adell, increasing the odds the Angels find both a RF and a second SP on the free agent market. Again, someone like Joc Pederson, Profar or JBJ makes sense, and the second FA arm could again come down to someone like Paxton, Tanaka, Odorizzi, Quintana, or Richards. Paired with one of those trade targets at the start, this rotation would be a classic high-risk, high-reward group. Lesser trade targets such as Jake Junis, Steven Brault, Vince Velasquez, Danny Duffy, and Matthew Boyd could also emerge, should the Angels decide to save their better prospects and invest more money into their lone FA SP option and/or the bullpen. 

Option 3: Back to the Bats
As spring draws nearer, opportunity for former Braves targets such as Marcell Ozuna or JT Realmuto could still come back into play. In my opinion, either of these moves would have a feel of (slight?) desperation to them, but with Minasian's connections to Realmuto and Ozuna, Arte's penchant for preferring star hitters over star pitchers, and the Angels 'holes' at both RF and C coupling with simply being opportunistic, I don't think a scenario where the Angels still wind up with one of these players is out of the question until both have signed elsewhere. Neither would address pitching and both would use up nearly all remaining money (maybe room for one value buy like a Taijuan Walker or Jose Quintana) but they would solidify the Angels as one of the top offensive clubs in the American League, if not baseball. Adding Ozuna would almost certainly seal the fate of at least one of Adell, Marsh, or Adams being traded within the next 12 months for pitching, if not two, so it doesn't entirely shut the door on rotation improvements. I doubt Stassi's presences would eliminate Realmuto being considered as well, since catchers always have value on the trade market, and Suzuki would be a fine back-up candidate.

 

I would rate #1 and #2A as the likeliest, and most preferred in my book at this point. I feel that with what know about Minasian so far, they are the most realistic. The Angels still have a lot of potential in their MLB-ready youngsters, and still have plenty of bullets to offer up in a trade. Lots can happen between now and July.

It's not the end of the world...yet.

[Vladdy Issues]

Option 4 re-sign Pujols to an extension is my opinion of where we go

[Junkballer]

I prefer 2B, although it will likely take a trade that isnt equitable in a trade simulator.  For instance, Adell holds more value than Gray in BTV (55-35 approx, and Hendricks is similar)  but it will take another significant prospect and change to get the Reds to accept.  I would be good someting along the lines of Adell/Vera as long as the other major Angels piece isnt one of the big 3 prospect arms.  Minasian needs to use the farm as a bridge to when Pujols/Upton come off the books, which keeps payroll flexibility to capitalize on future trade opportunities, while making at least one significant SP acquisition this off-season.

[wopphil]

@totdprods I agree with you that Option 3 is actually a possibility. I could see a deal for Springer, signing a Quintana type, and then trading Marsh or Adell for a cheap starter. 

[T.G.]

Forward.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, wopphil said:

@totdprods I agree with you that Option 3 is actually a possibility. I could see a deal for Springer, signing a Quintana type, and then trading Marsh or Adell for a cheap starter. 

Springer doesn't seem as likely since he seems to be zeroing in on the Northeast since he's from CT, but Ozuna has the Braves/Minasian connection. Still, if the Blue Jays and Mets are starting to spend money elsewhere, I suppose Springer could come back into play. 

[Angel Oracle]

Still prefer 1 or 2A.

Realmuto is probably less of a possibility now that Suzuki signed for 2021.

Same with Ozuna, because of the talented OFers in the farm system  

[East Coast Bias]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Springer doesn't seem as likely since he seems to be zeroing in on the Northeast since he's from CT, but Ozuna has the Braves/Minasian connection. Still, if the Blue Jays and Mets are starting to spend money elsewhere, I suppose Springer could come back into play. 

The Mets seem like the strongest candidate for Springer, their new owner is intent on spending money.  They just fired their GM this morning though so things may be slower on that front.  Cohen reminds me of Arti though, seems like he'll get involved when he wants something!    

[Lou]

now that all other children are growin' up

[Erstad Grit]

Bauer or bust.  Puig could be a cheap interesting add and maybe greene to the pen.  

[eligrba]

I think it is becoming more obvious what Minasian's plan was.  My guess is that his plan moving forward utilizes the options described by totdprods in this order: Option 1, Option 2A/Option 2B.  I don't think Option 3 is a consideration.  I also think that Options 2A and 2B are under equal consideration because trades can happen anytime until the deadline.

[totdprods]

Some more thoughts on Option 3...
Let's say Minasian has had several opportunities this winter to acquire someone like Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, but it was going to cost them Adell or Marsh. 
I could see how he could pause on those moves - to date - when Taylor Ward, Scott Schebler, or someone from the current FA crop would then become your RF this year or next. 

If Minasian, or Arte, has decided that they need to have a legitimate frontline starter on the mound Opening Day, aside from Bauer, they might now need to deal Adell or Marsh if that was a non-negotiable winter objective. If that's the case, shifting towards someone like Ozuna for RF or improving C with Realmuto could swing back into play. 

I think this is extremely unlikely, but not impossible. I'd imagine adding Quintana and Happ is even more likely. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I admit, seeing Musgrove come off the board was the first instance this offseason that I started to let worry creep in. In a perfect world, Darvish and Musgrove would have been the two targets I felt were the best targets for the Angels, in my mind.Bauer obviously looms large - and with more teams filling their pitching needs while he remains a free agent, chances are improving that he winds up with the Angels. 

As it stands, I still see a few different routes the Angels can take and still come out of this offseason in great shape. 

Option 1: Trevor Bauer
This scenario banks heavily on internal improvement, which is something Minasian has emphasized this offseason. There's a very real chance that if the Angels can afford Trevor Bauer, he'll use up all of their remaining money available, and even if he's the lone addition to the rotation this winter, would it really be so bad? Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Detmers, with Ohtani once a week could be competitive if the youngsters keep improving and folks stay healthy. I'd assume the Angels would still add a cheap RP or two (think Tepera, Kintzler) perhaps a platoon-level RF (Duvall, Naquin, Pillar, Souza, Goodwin) and call it a day. Save all the prospects.

Option 2A: Spread the Wealth, Save the Prospects
This scenario sees the Angels take their remaining money, and plop it down on free agents. Maybe the rotation is rounded out with Quintana and Odorizzi; Bundy, Odorizzi, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, and Ohtani. Nothing flashy but should be effective. Maybe they drop some more coin on a right fielder like Joc Pederson or Jackie Bradley, or a utility guy like Jurickson Profar, allowing them to deal from their outfield or mid-infield prospects mid-season for an arm if need arises, something which might be much more fruitful if a minor league season takes place and prospects such as Adams, Knowles, and Deveaux and the slate of mid-infield prospects get a chance to flourish. 

Option 2B: Spread the Wealth, Deal Some Prospects
The Angels still have the prospect capital to land someone like Sonny Gray, German Marquez, Kyle Hendricks, even if those scenarios are looking more unlikely. Should a deal happen for someone of that caliber, it would very well likely cost the Angels Marsh or Adell, increasing the odds the Angels find both a RF and a second SP on the free agent market. Again, someone like Joc Pederson, Profar or JBJ makes sense, and the second FA arm could again come down to someone like Paxton, Tanaka, Odorizzi, Quintana, or Richards. Paired with one of those trade targets at the start, this rotation would be a classic high-risk, high-reward group. Lesser trade targets such as Jake Junis, Steven Brault, Vince Velasquez, Danny Duffy, and Matthew Boyd could also emerge, should the Angels decide to save their better prospects and invest more money into their lone FA SP option and/or the bullpen. 

Option 3: Back to the Bats
As spring draws nearer, opportunity for former Braves targets such as Marcell Ozuna or JT Realmuto could still come back into play. In my opinion, either of these moves would have a feel of (slight?) desperation to them, but with Minasian's connections to Realmuto and Ozuna, Arte's penchant for preferring star hitters over star pitchers, and the Angels 'holes' at both RF and C coupling with simply being opportunistic, I don't think a scenario where the Angels still wind up with one of these players is out of the question until both have signed elsewhere. Neither would address pitching and both would use up nearly all remaining money (maybe room for one value buy like a Taijuan Walker or Jose Quintana) but they would solidify the Angels as one of the top offensive clubs in the American League, if not baseball. Adding Ozuna would almost certainly seal the fate of at least one of Adell, Marsh, or Adams being traded within the next 12 months for pitching, if not two, so it doesn't entirely shut the door on rotation improvements. I doubt Stassi's presences would eliminate Realmuto being considered as well, since catchers always have value on the trade market, and Suzuki would be a fine back-up candidate.

 

I would rate #1 and #2A as the likeliest, and most preferred in my book at this point. I feel that with what know about Minasian so far, they are the most realistic. The Angels still have a lot of potential in their MLB-ready youngsters, and still have plenty of bullets to offer up in a trade. Lots can happen between now and July.

It's not the end of the world...yet.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

30 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Bauer or bust.  Puig could be a cheap interesting add and maybe greene to the pen.  

Pujols mentoring Puig actually might play very well. 

[Junkballer]

14 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Pujols mentoring Puig actually might play very well. 

Actually Pujols started mentoring him some time ago.  Tough Love.

[Angelsjunky]

Nice summation. I think your options are listed in order of likelihood, perhaps with 1 and 2B being very close, if not the same, and 3 being a distant unlikelihood.

At this point, I’m really hoping for 1 or 2A. I’d like to see how the farm develops and, at this point, almost all of the prospects are worth more in future value than current trade value.

That said, it may be possible to pry Gray away from the Reds without giving up any of the “big five” prospects. Maybe Barria, Jackson, Knowles, and Yan gets them interested. 
 

Another possibility is a hybrid of 2A and 2B: sign one mid-rotation guy and trade for an almost-ready pitching prospect or reclamation project. A creative GM finds ways.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[floplag]

Well nothing has changed really in my opinion.  We still have the same needs, RF, bullpen help, and 1-2 SP.  Yeah some guys are off the lists but there are still options to be had included the biggest ones.

I would twist this a little to say the option are this:
#1 Bust the budget.  If were not willing to do that for the next two years to top guys (Bauer Springer Realmuto) arent really an option.  Bauer alone doesnt get it done, we have other holes to fill.

#2 Stay within budget:  Start shopping in the tier two aisle and fill the needs.  Some combination of guys like Pederson, Puig, Paxton, Walker, Odorizzi, and the like.  At this point, this is where i think we land.  

#3 Trade the kids.   No one wants to do this.  Every option that gets us the top guy we want will cost guys we dont want to trade. 
Im frankly against it as we will likely get below value for the kids in any scenario.  Adell had a poor 20 so people wont overpay there and the other biggest chips such as Adams are still not quite at their higher value levels.   Unless its one of these Padre trade type scenarios where youre getting guys for half the value, we come out on the tail end.   The only one you maybe get value on is Marsh and i really dont want to deal him at all unless its for an absolute no brainer.

In short i think at this point were looking at another typical Halo off season.  Im going to take the pessimist stance until they prove me wrong

[angelsnationtalk]

Option 1 is the only answer.

Given how history has repeated itself over the year (Cole, Corbin, Strasburg, etc) I don't think Arte will miss on a frontline guy again. They can't after they've told the public that they're trying to figure out what's wrong and are going to make serious changes.
The change is to stop falling short on pitching. 

If they want their young guys to grow and mature then they need 1 guy. Bauer. 

They need an Ace. They have forced their fans to suffer with so many 1yr deals to guys on the far backend of their careers. (Teheran, Cahill, Harvey....)

Time to put their money where their mouth is and get an Ace. Bauer is projected to go about 200 innings this year as well. Something the Angels have been in desperate need for.  

[angelsnationtalk]

4 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

Actually Pujols started mentoring him some time ago.  Tough Love.

My point exactly is from this game ^

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Pujols mentoring Puig actually might play very well. 

Been saying this for a while, if anyone can, its him.  I dont see him acting the fool with Pujols and Trout looking over their shoulder at him.
Not to mention an angry Puig with something to prove on a one year deal... also opens up deadline deal options if the kids develop soon enough if things go south.
A lot of potential here if people can get passed not liking the guy even if it is for wholly valid reasons. 

[angelsnationtalk]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nice summation. I think your options are listed in order of likelihood, perhaps with 1 and 2B being very close, if not the same, and 3 being a distant unlikelihood.

At this point, I’m really hoping for 1 or 2A. I’d like to see how the farm develops and, at this point, almost all of the prospects are worth more in future value than current trade value.

That said, it may be possible to pry Gray away from the Reds without giving up any of the “big five” prospects. Maybe Barria, Jackson, Knowles, and Yan gets them interested. 
 

Another possibility is a hybrid of 2A and 2B: sign one mid-rotation guy and trade for an almost-ready pitching prospect or reclamation project. A creative GM finds ways.

The Reds have said they will hold onto Castillo since they believe they have a chance to win their division. I think that means we'd have to overpay to get Gray. Pass for me. 

[totdprods]

Puig seems extraordinarily unlikely given his off-field stuff, but on-field, he fits the exact same formula the Braves used when they pounced on Donaldson and Ozuna for one-year rebound deals.

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Another possibility is a hybrid of 2A and 2B: sign one mid-rotation guy and trade for an almost-ready pitching prospect or reclamation project. A creative GM finds ways.

Certainly possible as a 2C option. 

Trades for top SP prospects seem so rare these days, and probably even rarer now given how teams are wanting to hold onto cheaper, controlled players due to the virus/money situation, but still plausible. I sort of addressed the other half, the reclamation project, part in mentioning guys like Junis, Duffy, Boyd, etc. 

Nomar Mazara strikes me as a really intriguing RF option too. Someone to gamble on and cut loose midseason if Marsh or Adell are ready for a shot.

Edited January 19, 2021 by totdprods

[Erstad Grit]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Puig seems extraordinarily unlikely given his off-field stuff, but on-field, he fits the exact same formula the Braves used when they pounced on Donaldson and Ozuna for one-year rebound deals.

and Braves, at least initially, wanted to give him a shot last year 

[Erstad Grit]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Certainly possible as a 2C option. 

Trades for top SP prospects seem so rare these days, and probably even rarer now given how teams are wanting to hold onto cheaper, controlled players due to the virus/money situation, but still plausible. I sort of addressed the other half, the reclamation project, part in mentioning guys like Junis, Duffy, Boyd, etc. 

Nomar Mazara strikes me as a really intriguing RF option too. Someone to gamble on and cut loose midseason if Marsh or Adell are ready for a shot.

Mazara is a fantastic suggestion