The Official 2021 Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Let's compare Dipoto's and Eppler's drafts, including major international signings. Dipoto is 2012-15 (4 years), Epplier 2016-20 (5 years).

I'll include the top three picks and others that people may have heard of. Grading is based upon actualized potential for older drafts, but perceived upside for more recent ones (that is, how they are developing on the farm). An A grade includes at least one borderline star or better, plus several impact major leaguers; a B grade a bit less; a C grade has a few solid major leaguers, possibly an impact player; a D grade might have a solid major leaguer but mostly fringe guys; and an F grade is only earned by those drafts that yield no solid players, only up-and-down guys. 

Also, I'm adjusting slightly for picks lost due to free agent signings, but not totally discounting it as it is part of the overall picture of drafting.

JERRY DIPOTO DRAFTS (2012-15)

2012: RJ Alvarez (3), Alex Yarbrough (4), Mark Sappington (5); also Eric Stamets, Austin Adams, Mike Morin, Sherman Johnson, Anthony Bemboom. -3.3 WAR in majors. International: Eduardo Paredes

The Angels lost their first two picks because of Pujols and Wilson; if you're curious, the Cardinals got Michael Wacha (18.3 WAR) and the Rangers got Jamie Jarmon (NA). But we got Pujols!

This was a pretty bad draft. Alvarez was supposed to be a very good reliever, and was part of the Huston Street trade; he never established himself in the majors, pitching 28 innings in 2014-15 with a 7.39 ERA and is currently on the Brewers' AAA team. Yarbrough and Stamets were hoped to be solid utility infielders, but neither caught on. The end result is that it yielded no quality major leaguers, just a few up-and-down guys. Grade: F

2013: Hunter Green (2), Keynan Middleton (3), Elliot Morris (4); also Kyle McGowan, Alan Busenitz, Michael Hermosillo. 1.3 WAR in majors. International: Jose Rodriguez, Jaime Barria.

As with the year before, the Angels lost their top pick by virtue of signing Josh Hamilton. The Rangers picked Travis Demeritte in that slot, who hasn't amounted to much, although is currently killing it for the Braves AAA team as a 27-year old (1.091 OPS in 27 games), so might have a bench career ahead of him yet.

This draft was as bad as the previous one, with their first pick never making it past Rookie ball due to injuries. Middleton was almost a decent reliever and Hermosillio had/has some potential. The lone solid major leaguer is international free agent Jaime Barria, so that's something. I guess. Grade: D-

2014: Sean Newcomb (1), Joe Gatto (2), Chris Ellis (3); also Jake Jewell, Bo Way, Justin Anderson, Greg Mahle. 2.5 WAR. International: Jose Suarez, Roberto Baldoquin.

Dipoto's first 1st round pick; who Eppler used in the Andrelton Simmons trade a year and a half later. This is also the year of the crippling Baldoquin signing, his $8M bonus ending up costing them $14M overall and preventing them from international signings in 2015 and '16. There's no way around it: another bad draft, although at least it contributed to some good years of Simmons, and Jose Suarez could be very good. Grade: F (D+/C- without Baldoquin).

2015: Taylor Ward (1), Jahmai Jones (2), Grayson Long (3); also David Fletcher and Jared Walsh. 10.7 WAR. International: None.

Despite the overdraft on Ward, the Angels have gotten useful players out of this draft, especially Fletcher and Walsh. Jones was traded for Alex Cobb and may still turn out as a good utility player, and Ward--despite being disappointing early on--has turned into a solid platoon guy. The draft doesn't score higher because, while it yielded three solid to good players, it is pretty sparse after. Grade: B-

BILLY EPPLER DRAFTS (2016-20)

2016: Matt Thaiss (1), Brandon Marsh (2), Nonie Williams (3); Also: Chris Rodriguez, Cole Duensing, Brennon Lund, Torii Hunter Jr, Jose Rojas. -0.3 WAR. International: Adelin Santana.

While we're getting into the "too soon to tell" range, we've got three guys who have spent time in the majors, and a fourth in Marsh whose arrival should come later this year. Marsh is a 60 FV prospect according to Fangraphs, which makes him at least a borderline star. Thaiss is either a platoon guy like Ward or maybe even a solid regular, and Rodriguez could be anything from a borderline ace to a good reliever. I'll grade conservatively, though, especially considering that Thaiss wasn't a great 1st rounder (and we all knew it at the time). Grade: B-

2017: Joe Adell (1), Griffin Canning (2), Jacob Pearson (3); Also: John Swanda, Denny Brady, David MacKinnon. 0.9 WAR. International: Shohei Ohtani, Kevin Maitan, Livan Soto, Trent Deveaux, Raider Uceta, Jose Reyes.

The jury is still out because of the top two picks, both of whom could either be stars or duds; probably somewhere in-between. This year is most noteworthy, though, for the free agent signing of Ohtani; it may be cheating to include him here, as he wasn't an amateur. The former Braves prospects are all a bit disappointing, altough Soto could turn into a UT guy. Deveaux has tools galore, but is looking more and more like yet another toolsy dud. Grade: B-, or A with Ohtani.

2018: Jordyn Adams (1), Jeremiah Jackson (2), Aaron Hernandez (3): also, Kyle Bradish, William Holmes, Andrew Wantz, Cooper Criswell, Connor Higgins. 0.1 WAR. International: Alexander Ramirez, Darwin Moreno, etc.

Adams and Jackson have a lot of potential, and there's some solid, if overall fringy arms here. Unfortunately it looks like the Angels might have traded the better of the Hernandez-Bradish duo. Of the international guys, Ramirez has a high upside bat but is very raw. Grade: C+ (too soon to tell; could be higher, depending upon how Adams, Jackson, and Ramirez turn out).

2019: Will Wilson (1), Kyren Paris (2), Jack Kochanowicz (3); also, Erik Rivera, Garret Stallings, Davis Daniel, Zach Linginfelter, Brent Killam, Jack Dashwood, Coleman Crow. 0.0 WAR. International: Arol Vera, Adrian Placencia, Jose Bonilla.

Now we're at way too soon to tell. Wilson was a head-scratcher in the first round, especially after Eppler's last two years, but Paris could be a jewel. There are some intriguing arms later on - not necessarily big upside (except for Koch), but possibly useful relief types. Vera, Placencia, and Bonilla show a lot of potential, and point to greater resources and smarts being put into international scouting. Grade: C+ (too soon to tell, but looks promising).

2020: Reid Detmers (1), David Calabrese (2), Werner Blakely (3), Adam Seminaris (4). International: Not sure (see below).

Detmers is looking like the real deal. Calabrese and Blakely have talent, but are very young and raw. This draft was only four rounds, and I couldn't find info on international signings (I think Denzer Guzman was this year). Grade: C+ (again, too soon to tell and with upside).

SUMMARY

Dipoto: F, D-, F, B-

Eppler: B-, B-, C+, C+, C+

With the caveat that all of Eppler's drafts are too soon to tell and could go up or down (although I tended to grade conservatively, so most have a better chance of going up), the bottom line is the bottom line: Eppler's drafts--and treatment of the minor leagues--was far superior. Dipoto's were, except for the last one, just awful. Part of that is losing draft picks to free agents, but he didn't find any useful prospects in those first three years.

Edge: Eppler (by a long-shot).

This is a better post than is being noted so far. You did some homework, all the legwork and broke it up into easy to understand grades. Also, I think many (not all but many) of your opinions are pretty spot on. It paints the picture of just how destructive the Dipoto era was for Angels Baseball, crippling the organization between 2015 and 2018.

The very fact that the Angels are competitive right now is thanks to Billy Eppler being quite good at the amateur portion of his job. He helped the organization navigate a situation that a lesser amateur focused GM would've taken 6-7 years to navigate through. 

[Angelsjunky]

38 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Did you say Barria was a major leaguer?

Outside of two appearances this year, he is a minor leaguer. 

He's been a major leaguer, with 250.1 IP, and will be a major leaguer again.

[mmc]

40 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Alexander Ramirez is at the top of my list (outside the big three as you call them). Serious power-speed combo, elite exit velocities, performed well at a young age and had already built the physique you hope every athlete would strive for. 

I think he's the real deal. 

Second would be David Calabrese.  80 grade speed and now than one scout has referenced Andrew Benintendi, who is a solid and versatile regular in the majors. 

Third in my book is Orlando Martinez. He is a decent hitter and the newly discovered power stroke has some sticking power to it. He plays decent defense as well. There's some Jeff DaVanon in him, if you are well versed in obscure mid-2000's references. A better than expected starter.

Where would you rank Knowles and Deveaux?  Also, do Rivera and Holmes profile more as pitchers or OFs in the MLB and if it’s the latter, where would you slot them?

[Stradling]

I dig all the work AJ put into this, but disagree with a couple of the grades. If you have a draft and you get 2 bonafide starters in Fletcher and Walsh and everyday player in Ward (if you squint), that is an A level draft.  If you expect to get more out of a draft than two starters then you are expecting too much.  Then when those starters are as good as those two are then to me it is an A.  This is coming from someone who really dislikes Dipoto.  

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, mmc said:

Where would you rank Knowles and Deveaux?  Also, do Rivera and Holmes profile more as pitchers or OFs in the MLB and if it’s the latter, where would you slot them?

Knowles doesn't have a weakness in his game which is similar to Calhoun except that Calhoun's tools cumulatively were louder. Specifically house power and defense. Knowles should result in him being a 4th OF in that Juan Lagares type of mold. 

Deveaux has tools but no, I don't think he's a baseball player as much as he's an athlete. 

Holmes and Rivera can both hit 95 on the mound, and I figure with as much position player depth as the Angels have built, they'll see more opportunity on the bump than they will in the batters box. 

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I dig all the work AJ put into this, but disagree with a couple of the grades. If you have a draft and you get 2 bonafide starters in Fletcher and Walsh and everyday player in Ward (if you squint), that is an A level draft.  If you expect to get more out of a draft than two starters then you are expecting too much.  Then when those starters are as good as those two are then to me it is an A.  This is coming from someone who really dislikes Dipoto.  

I probably graded 2015 a bit too low, but I probably wouldn't grade it higher than B, maybe B+ if Fletcher continues to improve back to 3-4 WAR level and Walsh sustains this year's level.

Of course a lot of this depends upon what one means by the grades; I'm not taking the contemporary inflationist perspective, where anything below a 5-star review on Amazon is not so great, and in schools where "B" is the new "C" (most kids consider B to be average). Meaning, A is excellent, B is good, C is average, D is poor, F is terrible.

I consider a "grade A" draft to require at least one borderline star and two or three solid major leaguers; or maybe several quality players but no stars, and one or two fringe major leaguers. That's a great draft. A "grade B" draft yields several major leaguers, and one or two who are average or above regulars. That's how I see the 2015 draft. A "grade "C" draft includes maybe one or two guys who become regulars and maybe one or two fringe major leaguers, but no really good players. That, I think, is the baseline; above that is good, below that is bad.

[Stradling]

If the only way to get an A draft is to have a borderline star and 2-3 regulars, then virtually no team has an A draft.  How many drafts in the last decade get an A using that criteria?  The Dodgers in 2015 when they drafted May, Smith and Lux?  And even then none of those are a borderline star yet.  

[rafibomb]

Reid Detmers was flat-out dominant today:

4.0 IP  1 H (bloop single)  0 R  0 BB  7 SO  57 pitches (40 strikes)

Trash Pandas play-by-play believes the early hook was due to the Futures Game being on Sunday, which Detmers will be participating in.

Season ERA down to 3.60 with 91 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched (17 walks) and a 1.16 WHIP.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2021 by rafibomb

[Angelsjunky]

Regarding the outfielder question, considering upside without floor is tricky. I kind of see it like triangles, with the vertical dimension being upside and the horizontal dimension being floor. Players like Adams and Adell have slightly higher upsides than Marsh, but much narrower floors. Adell could hit .290 with 45 HR and 6+ WAR, or he could hit struggle to ever hit .200 and never make it as a regular. Marsh could be a bonafide all-star putting up 5+ WAR every year, but I don't see him being less than a .270/.750 hitter with good defense, or ~3 WAR.

Adams may have the highest ceiling of any outfield prospect, but hasn't yet proved himself even in A+, where he is struggling. A Ramirez could be a premier hitter, or he could flame out in the mid-minors. Etc. 

The point being, whenever I try to sort prospects by upside, it becomes an exercise in pipe-dreaming and seems divorced from reality. I mean, in some ways I like guys like Vera and Placencia more than anyone, but it is way too soon to consider their upside divorced from where they are right now.

 

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If the only way to get an A draft is to have a borderline star and 2-3 regulars, then virtually no team has an A draft.  How many drafts in the last decade get an A using that criteria?  The Dodgers in 2015 when they drafted May, Smith and Lux?  And even then none of those are a borderline star yet.  

So I'm a tough grader. 

[ScottM]

91 k's for Detmers in 50 innings. That's insane.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

I dig all the work AJ put into this, but disagree with a couple of the grades. If you have a draft and you get 2 bonafide starters in Fletcher and Walsh and everyday player in Ward (if you squint), that is an A level draft.  If you expect to get more out of a draft than two starters then you are expecting too much.  Then when those starters are as good as those two are then to me it is an A.  This is coming from someone who really dislikes Dipoto.  

People will point to who was the GM was when he was drafted but Walsh is 100% a developmental success story and Dipoto had nothing to do with that.   Walsh needed to be demoted to high A as a 24 year old and completely rewired in order to finally put it together.

There was a lot of development and organizational structuring going on that will never really get its due from the "scoreboard" crowd, but it will end up paying dividends for a long, long, time.  

I wish Eppler had come into the situation Minasian has, hell... I wish he had come into the situation Dipoto did...  Four top 100 prospects, multiple MLB regulars in the system... Payroll flexibility, multiple players in their primes and an actual top 10 or so rotation..  Things would never have been as bad as they were.

Nobody did less with more than what JD did in Anaheim.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

If the only way to get an A draft is to have a borderline star and 2-3 regulars, then virtually no team has an A draft.  How many drafts in the last decade get an A using that criteria?  The Dodgers in 2015 when they drafted May, Smith and Lux?  And even then none of those are a borderline star yet.  

You realize you're right, right?   The reality is most teams fail miserably.  Any team that can even pull one MLB average everyday player per season in every draft likely feels like they are doing it right.  It's that big of a crapshoot. The draft used to go 40 rounds (even longer before that), just because the failure rates are so high. 

I mean they went 2012, 2013, 2014, without having anything to show for those drafts then hit on two guys in 2015, including a 39th rounder.   Makes you wonder why if they could pull an All Star in the 39th round how they managed to screw up in 158 of the other 160 rounds over those four years.

At this point Taylor Ward is a borderline success story.  He's been a league average hitter with a positive WAR this year.  He keeps it for another year and that 2015 draft will need to be considered as damn near excellent.  This is also why the 2009 draft is often mentioned whenever the conversation of greatest ever draft classes comes up.  

 

[Stradling]

Yes I assumed I was right. 

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, mmc said:

I’m not saying he did worse than other teams or his drafts were bad, just that you can’t call them good yet when none are producing on the major league team

 

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

this doesn't negate your statement

 

[Angelsjunky]

I did a bit more research and looked at a couple other teams and realized I was over-estimating how many major leaguers come out of drafts - I was a bit surprised, really. But also note that I'm grading the total crop - including international free aents. But I was solidly off, maybe by as much as a full grade in some cases. 

Focusing on just the amateur draft, I'd probably recalibrate like so, with each letter grade adding something to the lower grades:

F. Nothing more than an up-and-down guy or two.

D. Adds a single bench player, and/or another up-and-down guy or two. 

C. Adds a fringe regular and/or another bench player or two. A typical draft being a fringe regular and/or 2-3 bench guys, and a few up-and-down guys.

B. An average plus regular or a handful of solid bench guys. Meaning, to be a grade B draft would require one guy who sticks as a regular of 2-3 WAR per season, or be filled with solid bench guys.

A. An impact player. Meaning, a draft reaches A- with a single 3+ WAR player and most or all of the above, with better or more similar players leading to an A and A+. 

So to revise my original grades, something like so (with total grade including international free agents in parentheses):

2012: D. Not even a single consistent bench guys, just a few up-and-downers.

2013: D+ (C). Depends on how Middleton, Hermosillo, and Barria develop.

2014: C- (C or higher). Depends on Newcomb and Suarez. Hard to assess the Baldoquin Effect, but its a serious negative; without Suarez, Id say overall this is a D or worse. If Suarez turns into a good reliever, it probably is a C/C+; if he turns into a mid-rotation starter, its a B-/B higher, depending upon how good he is. But unless he's the second coming of Pedro, Baldoquin caps how good this crop is.

2015: A- or A. Fletcher and Walsh are both at least average regulars (2-3 WAR) if not above average (3-4), Walsh maybe be a borderline star (4-5). Jones is icing on the cake.

2016: B+ or higher. Depends on how Thaiss, Marsh, and CRod do. could be an A if things pan out as we hope (Marsh as a borderline star, CRod as a #2-3).

2017: B or higher. Could be an A if Adell and Canning are good, but at least they should be solid regulars. The Braves crop is almost a bust.

2018: B or higher. Who knows. This could be anything from a C to an A, but there's a handful of potentially useful players.

2019: B- or higher (B or higher). Slightly worse than 2018, I think, but the international signings more than make up for it. Could be a great crop.

2020: B or higher. See above. Detmers alone makes this probably a B.

As an aside, of course probably the best way to assess a draft is total WAR, but we can't do that until everyone is retired - so we're talking about 15-20 years ago, or at the very least 10+ years out. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[rafibomb]

Best start of the season for Kochanowicz:

6.0 IP 

2 H

1 R

0 ER

2 BB

7 SO

90 pitches (57 strikes)

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Best start of the season for Kochanowicz:

6.0 IP 

2 H

1 R

0 ER

2 BB

7 SO

90 pitches (57 strikes)

 

he's beginning to believe.  

[Inside Pitch]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I did a bit more research and looked at a couple other teams and realized I was over-estimating how many major leaguers come out of drafts - I was a bit surprised, really.

You and pretty much everyone who hasn't ever actually looked at the results, I had the same WTF reaction when I did.  It's crazy really.   People see the impact the NFL and NBA drafts can have and falsely assume its the same in MLB.

Also, makes the Angels failure to get back in the international market for as long as it did that much worse IMO.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Best start of the season for Kochanowicz:

6.0 IP 

2 H

1 R

0 ER

2 BB

7 SO

90 pitches (57 strikes)

 

Development!

[Angelsjunky]

I just looked at WAR totals for the 2000 - 2011 drafts. I weeded out players that didn't sign (so no Hendricks, Harvey, Posey, etc). Here are the totals, in order, with the best player per draft:

2000: 33.5 (Napoli 26.3)

2001: 9.6 (Kotchman 7.5)

2002: 45.4 (Kendrick 35.1, also Saunders 8.4)

2003: 5.5 (S Rodriguez 9.0)

2004: 51.6 (J Weaver 34.6, also Trumbo 9.5, Maldonado 7.4)

2005: 5.8 (Bourjos 9.6)

2006: 5.4 (Walden 3.3)

2007: 3.5 (Brasier 2.4)

2008: 17.2 (Chatwood 11.0)

2009: 115.4 (Trout 76.0, also Corbin 16.9, Grichuk 11.4, Richards 8.4)

2010: 16.3 (Calhoun 15.6)

2011: 21.4 (Clevinger 13.3, also Cron 8.6)

 

Now here they are in order of low to high:

3.5, 5.4, 5.5, 5.8, 9.6, 16.3, 17.2, 21.4, 33.5, 45.4, 115.4

16.3 is the median of 11 years.

Now I don't necessarily think those numbers are representative of a typical 11-year span, although I checked the Athletics and it was similar (without the 2009 draft, of course).

But what it does tell me, is that almost half of all drafts are basically "meh" (the first five), three are pretty good (the middle three), and three are very good or better.

Meaning, roughly one-third of drafts are mediocre, yielding very little except for bench players; about one third are solid to good, with some useful major leaguers, even a regular or two; and one third are very good, yielding a star.

 

[Angelsjunky]

25 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You and pretty much everyone who hasn't ever actually looked at the results, I had the same WTF reaction when I did.  It's crazy really.   People see the impact the NFL and NBA drafts can have and falsely assume its the same in MLB.

Also, makes the Angels failure to get back in the international market for as long as it did that much worse IMO.

It reminds me of a friend who had no fear of rejection (and was probably a bit psychopathic), and would hit on literally every reasonably attractive woman he met (including my then-wife). As he put it, if he hit on a 50 girls in a month and only 1 said yes, he still got laid at least once a month.

Drafting seems to be similar, if a bit less either/or. That is, some of those girls lead to foreplay, or at least flirtation. As I said in the above, only about one every three drafts (plus or minus) yields an impact player. On the other hand, you never know who that will be, just as you don't know which late round draft picks will turn into Kole Calhoun or even Albert Pujols. For every Mickey Moniak there's a Kole Calhoun...or rather, maybe not for every one, but just as the Moniaks of the world aren't  sure things, so too do you not know who will become the next Calhoun.

Oh, we actually do: his name is Jared Walsh.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

He's been a major leaguer, with 250.1 IP, and will be a major leaguer again.

The. Why isn't  he pitching over Heaney, Canning, Cobb. Bundy,or Quintana?

Yes I know, I am beating a dead horse.

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, stormngt said:

The. Why isn't  he pitching over Heaney, Canning, Cobb. Bundy,or Quintana?

Yes I know, I am beating a dead horse.

From 2018-21, the years Barria has made major league appearances, there have 1,013 pitchers with at least 10 IP. Barria at 250.1 is 137th on that list. Meaning, he has more innings over the last season than 86.5% of guys who have 10 innings. There are only 135 pitchers--or 4.5 per team--with more total innings during that time, and only one Angel (Andrew Heaney). Meaning, Barria has pitched more major league innings for the Angels since his first appearance than everyone but Heaney.

Kind of a weird and surprising stat, if you think about it.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[rafibomb]