The Official 2021 Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[Angelsjunky]

18 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I think I'll leave this one to IP. 

I will say this: I really don't see any need for concern over 80 innings from a 21 year old, especially when he dominated through the vast majority of those innings despite the HR rate. 

Doc put it pretty simply: He gave up a lot of homeruns in the minors because he threw too many strikes. He gave up a lot in the majors because he didn't.

Don't be a pussy. 

Anyhow, again, it isn't either/or: Either we're freaking out or there's absolutely nothing to be concerned about. As wopphil put it, there's a valid reason to be "slightly concerned." Being slightly concerned doesn't mean one's overall feeling for Detmers can't be positive, just that his HR rate is a data point that bears some watching.

I think Doc is probably right, but small sample size works both ways: It is too soon to be freaking out, but also too soon to be certain that it is something that will be ironed out.

I think the bottom line is that he could use a bit more seasoning in AAA, but isn't far off, and overall is a promising prospect. But there's still quite a bit swing in terms of his outcome. But we'll know more sometime in mid-season of 2022.

Edited December 26, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Docwaukee]

my point is that you can be 'hr prone' and still be a TOR starter.  If Detmers stays as HR prone as he's been then he's gonna completely suck.  But his tendencies are, again, a symptom of him being overly aggressive in the zone in the minors and guys literally almost fouling balls off for cheap shit oppo hrs.  (some of the minor league parks he pitched in were just stupid).  In the majors he was behind every batter.  

He's got the right stuff to be a top or at least middle of the rotation starter.  But no one gets to either of those by giving up 1.6hrs per 9.  So to say he can't sustain that and be successful is kinda like duh.  Sorry @wopphil for being suck a dick about it.  I know what you're getting at but to me it's kinda like saying if he pitches better then he'll have more success.  

[tdawg87]

41 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

for being suck a dick about it.

[Angelsjunky]

55 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

my point is that you can be 'hr prone' and still be a TOR starter.  If Detmers stays as HR prone as he's been then he's gonna completely suck.  But his tendencies are, again, a symptom of him being overly aggressive in the zone in the minors and guys literally almost fouling balls off for cheap shit oppo hrs.  (some of the minor league parks he pitched in were just stupid).  In the majors he was behind every batter.  

He's got the right stuff to be a top or at least middle of the rotation starter.  But no one gets to either of those by giving up 1.6hrs per 9.  So to say he can't sustain that and be successful is kinda like duh.  Sorry @wopphil for being suck a dick about it.  I know what you're getting at but to me it's kinda like saying if he pitches better then he'll have more success.  

It actually reminds me of Adell a bit, although in a smaller sample size and thus less concerning ("slightly" vs "reasonably"). Adell's swing and miss tendencies are reasonably concerning. It doesn't mean he can't be a good, even very good, player, but it does make it more questionable and, I think, caps his upside somewhat.

I see it similarly with Detmers. You can be a very good starter and be somewhat HR prone, but that tends to be the exception rather than the rule. Meaning, most TOR starters tend to give up fewer than average HR. Let's look at the last four full seasons:

Year (mlb average HR rate): top 30 WAR starters with below avg. HR rates

2021 (1.26): 11. Nola (1.30), 16. Giolito (1.36), 17. Ray (1.54)

2019 (1.40): 5. Verlander (1.45), 26. Kershaw (1.41), 29. Marquez (1.50)

2018 (1.16): 3. Verlander (1.18), 22. Berrios (1.17), 23. Happ (1.37), 24. Heaney (1.35), 25. Pivetta (1.32), 27. Greinke (1.21)

2017 (1.27): 16. Samardzija (1.30), 17. Darvish (1.30), 20. Cole (1.37), 21. Ray (1.28), 27. Lester (1.30), 28. Bauer (1.28), 29. Bundy (1.38).

A couple things. One, it is interesting to note that there are fewer higher HR rate starters i the top 30 in the last two years (three each, or 10%) than there were in 2017-19 (6 and 7, or averaging 22%). But that could just be small sample - not sure how this plays out going back further.

Secondly, two guys show up twice: Ray and Verlander. Verlander is, of course, one of the best pitchers of the 21st century, so it is good to see his name on there. Interestingly enough, his HR was quite low through 2015, but then jumped to around the average range from 2016 on. What I find interesting is that he seemed to be in decline in 2013-15, but then had a late peak, with 2018-19 being as good as his earlier years - despite a higher HR rate.

 

[Docwaukee]

10 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

heh.  

[Docwaukee]

maybe I'll say it a different way.  Guys who give up a shit ton of hrs aren't very good pitchers.   Guys who give up very few are usually really good.  Guys who give up an avg amount are sometimes really good and sometimes they suck.  He's given up more than avg so far in his 82 professional innings.  If he maintains that trend then yah.  He's actually not even gonna be a #4 at best.  He's gonna suck.  But somehow, even with that high rate in the minors, he managed to dominate.   Then he got to the majors and decided to dance around the zone.  It actually happens a lot with guys who are gonna be good.  They throw any pitch in any count because they're told to and they're basically given carte blanche not to give a shit about the results.  Then they're asked to come to the bigs and get outs.  

AJ using Adell as an example is probably spot on.  But it's pretty much the case with any talented minor leaguer who isn't mike trout.  Let the f'n dude get his sea legs and he'll probably be really good when he's 26/27/28.  

The problem is that most people don't want to wait that long.  But too bad.  The guys that are amazing when they're 21 end up generational.  

[Chuck]

 

[Blarg]

Better looking swing left handed. 

[eligrba]

Lots of work ahead of him.  Hope he is motivated.   His swing looks planted and balanced even with all of his extraneous movements that will eventually need to go away.   He has more work to do with his fielding.   Unlike his hitting, he does not look balanced when transitioning from a fielding position to a throwing position.

Doesn't anyone teach fundamentals to young players anymore?  I feel bad for these youngsters who have to learn basic movements while also trying to show progress in their development.

[tdawg87]

[eligrba]

36 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

[rafibomb]

I wonder if people would be more open to Detmers opening the season as the 6th guy in the rotation if he had just finished out the season in Triple-A and never got the cup of tea in the Majors. I personally give a pass to Detmers to close out the year. Oakland, Dodgers and Houston is a tough 3 games to open up your career especially when the first 3 were still in a playoff race and he was actually solid against Houston. Then he had the shitty Cleveland start then had the COVID situation. Before his call-up he was dealing in Triple-A and somehow had not given up a home run in his short stint in the PCL. I think his cup of tea in the Majors could be good for him, giving him some things to work on based off of actual big league experience before the Spring.

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, rafibomb said:

I wonder if people would be more open to Detmers opening the season as the 6th guy in the rotation if he had just finished out the season in Triple-A and never got the cup of tea in the Majors. I personally give a pass to Detmers to close out the year. Oakland, Dodgers and Houston is a tough 3 games to open up your career especially when the first 3 were still in a playoff race and he was actually solid against Houston. Then he had the shitty Cleveland start then had the COVID situation. Before his call-up he was dealing in Triple-A and somehow had not given up a home run in his short stint in the PCL. I think his cup of tea in the Majors could be good for him, giving him some things to work on based off of actual big league experience before the Spring.

stop saying 'cup of tea'.   We have to maintain our independence from the red coats.  

seriously though.  If anyone is putting much stock in the 20 innings Detmers has pitched in the majors so far then whatever.