When will Bauer sign?

[Angel Oracle]

Get the popcorn ready.

[Stradling]

I already told you, December 23rd.  I was wrong.  So I will say early January.

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, Stradling said:

I already told you, December 23rd.  I was wrong.  So I will say early January.

Just take the DeLorean back to December 23, and spike his drink with Halos serum.

[tdawg87]

January 32nd.

[Angel Oracle]

Febtober 9

[Duren, Duren]

Mid January I think. He'll want some time before spring training to get acclimated to a new city and mentally prepared for a new team. The teams want to be able to design their rosters knowing whether he will be part of their mix sooner rather than later. 

[Revad]

20 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Just take the DeLorean back to December 23, and spike his drink with Halos serum.

I’m on board andI vote for @tdawg87 to create the serum.

[BTH]

I voted for mid-February. I really think he's going to drag it out as much as possible, but I do think he's going to want to be able to sign knowing that he can have a full spring training. He seems like the type of player who values the spring training prep time. If the season/spring training gets delayed a bit, that makes it easier for him to wait longer till he signs. Dragging the process out allows him to milk out the experience more and gives him more attention. For example, he may drag it out to the point where he's the only top free agent left. That would give him the sole spotlight, which he enjoys.

[Slegnaac]

Due to the postponement of the start of the 2021 season, April 11th.

[Lou]

Just now, Slegnaac said:

Due to the postponement of the start of the 2021 season, April 11th.

Yes!

Hi, @Tank.

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

Yes!

Hi, @Tank.

Hope he doesn’t miss the start of spring training on 2/21.

[Second Base]

We'll see how Rachel Luba let's this play out. Scott Boras loved holding the free agent market hostage for months at a time, allowing his client to dominate the headlines and bask in the limelight. He did it with Fielder and Harper and in either case (speculatively speaking) it doesn't seem like they got any more money than they otherwise would've gotten in November, or what was even predicted in October. 

I'm not convinced that a drawn out courting process results in a higher paycheck. Teams are willing to pay a certain amount, whether that happens in November or February is of little consequence. More than anything, I think it narrows the market because teams will go get alternatives rather than risk it all and wait. The Padres with Snell and Darvish come to mind.

But I suppose the inverse could be there as well. If alternatives are off the market then the price could go up.

[Revad]

Of course there’s a balance of power between agent and player, but If I was Luba I might make the deal where my client would succeed, right now they can pick but that may change quickly.  Money or quality of life?

[Second Base]

If reports are true, that Bauer is now sitting down with teams, then I think I'd expect him to sign in late January or early February. They sat around, let them market develop a little bit, watched some of the alternatives (Darvish and Snell) come off the board and just now, are willing to talk to teams. Bauer talked with the Blue Jays, and you have to figure, he'll also have a sit down with the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Phillies. 

All those meetings should take a couple weeks. Then gathering contact offers and negotiations would last another couple of weeks. 

Honestly, I think after the sit-down meetings, and initial offers, he'll probably eliminate a lot of teams. It'll probably come down to the Angels, Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. The Mets will spend themselves out of contention. It'll come down to the spending capacity of all three teams. They'll all offer different but attractive deals. Toronto will offer a very long term deal with lower AAV, the Dodgers will offer a shorter term deal with the highest AAV and the Angels will be right in the middle. By that point, it'll be pretty simple, where does he want to be, who offers him the situation he wants to be in? 

The Blue Jays are up and comers and the he'd love to jump on that train. The Dodgers give him the chance to be local and be in it every single year. The Angels offer locality and money, and some different coaching in Maddon that he probably respects.

But he also wasn't a fan of Callaway's techniques in Cleveland. At that point, it'll be Toronto versus LA. Toronto is hitter friendly, LA is pitcher friendly and local. I think he'll choose the Dodgers, and it'll be something like 3/120, offering him the chance to score another contract on top of that one that could pay well. 

The Angels, I think are going to lose out on Sugano and Bauer, but will get Yadi Molina for catcher, Jake Odorizzi, and will put together a package for Joe Musgrove that amazingly won't require Adell, Marsh, Adams, or Chris Rodriguez. It'll probably cost Kochanowicz, Thaiss, Rengifo and Kyren Paris, which is pretty steep. They cap off the off-season with one more reliever. 

[greginpsca]

46 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If reports are true, that Bauer is now sitting down with teams, then I think I'd expect him to sign in late January or early February. They sat around, let them market develop a little bit, watched some of the alternatives (Darvish and Snell) come off the board and just now, are willing to talk to teams. Bauer talked with the Blue Jays, and you have to figure, he'll also have a sit down with the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Phillies. 

All those meetings should take a couple weeks. Then gathering contact offers and negotiations would last another couple of weeks. 

Honestly, I think after the sit-down meetings, and initial offers, he'll probably eliminate a lot of teams. It'll probably come down to the Angels, Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. The Mets will spend themselves out of contention. It'll come down to the spending capacity of all three teams. They'll all offer different but attractive deals. Toronto will offer a very long term deal with lower AAV, the Dodgers will offer a shorter term deal with the highest AAV and the Angels will be right in the middle. By that point, it'll be pretty simple, where does he want to be, who offers him the situation he wants to be in? 

The Blue Jays are up and comers and the he'd love to jump on that train. The Dodgers give him the chance to be local and be in it every single year. The Angels offer locality and money, and some different coaching in Maddon that he probably respects.

But he also wasn't a fan of Callaway's techniques in Cleveland. At that point, it'll be Toronto versus LA. Toronto is hitter friendly, LA is pitcher friendly and local. I think he'll choose the Dodgers, and it'll be something like 3/120, offering him the chance to score another contract on top of that one that could pay well. 

The Angels, I think are going to lose out on Sugano and Bauer, but will get Yadi Molina for catcher, Jake Odorizzi, and will put together a package for Joe Musgrove that amazingly won't require Adell, Marsh, Adams, or Chris Rodriguez. It'll probably cost Kochanowicz, Thaiss, Rengifo and Kyren Paris, which is pretty steep. They cap off the off-season with one more reliever. 

I think the Angels lose out on Bauer too.  I know the Met's & Jays are in on him , but the team that i have a hunch will sign him is Seattle. Their payroll so far sits @ $77m. That is about half of what the Angels are currently at. And Bauer has had a good relationship with DiPoto in the past. They could also be competition for Sugano.  

If Minasian doesn't have any checkmarks on the shopping list in a week from now, i might start getting nervous about the teams ability to get any pitching.

[Second Base]

17 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I think the Angels lose out on Bauer too.  I know the Met's & Jays are in on him , but the team that i have a hunch will sign him is Seattle. Their payroll so far sits @ $77m. That is about half of what the Angels are currently at. And Bauer has had a good relationship with DiPoto in the past. They could also be competition for Sugano.  

If Minasian doesn't have any checkmarks on the shopping list in a week from now, i might start getting nervous about the teams ability to get any pitching.

I would say there's only so much Minasian can do with the market being what it is, but as we saw with Prellar and the Padres, if you're bold enough, you can successfully navigate a market that doesn't want to move at a speed or direction your comfortable with. 

The Braves, Minasian's former team was notorious for doing this. The Padres just did it and I'm little jealous the Angels haven't. They were advantageous in Raisel and Jose Iglesias though. Getting two quality players at a fraction of what they otherwise may have paid. Still, those are largely periphery moves. They don't address the team need. 

We will see if waiting the market out proves to be the right move or not. I suspect it isn't, but I'll reserve judgment.

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Second Base

[Blarg]

You guys should ask Mets fans. 

[Mark PT]

On 1/2/2021 at 10:20 AM, Angel Oracle said:

Febtober 9

that was the last time I got...

[Jay]

I think Angels fans' fixation on Bauer is even more intense than it was with Cole.

 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

I think Angels fans' fixation on Bauer is even more intense than it was with Cole.

 

Probably because he is active on social media.

[Pancake Bear]

Now that Spring Training looks likely to start on time, I don't seem taking longer than early February at the latest. Probably next week or the following one. 

However, that assumes that the reason he hasn't signed is that his demands are significantly above offers to the point that he's willing to sit out a while to force the issue (like Keuchel did a few years back).

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Jay said:

I think Angels fans' fixation on Bauer is even more intense than it was with Cole.

 

I think it's partly because there is a big drop off after Bauer on the free agent market. Last offseason, Strasburg Wheeler, Ryu, Bumgarner, and Keuchel were other notable starting pitchers on the free agent market. Now not all of them worked out, but they were all highly regarded at the time.

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I think it's partly because there is a big drop off after Bauer on the free agent market. Last offseason, Wheeler, Ryu, and Keuchel were other notable starting pitchers on the free agent market.

Yes, this is probably it, although it may be less about the size of the drop-off as the number of very good starters available. If I were to rank the free agent starters from the last two years, I'd order them like so, with 2020 in bold:

Cole

Bauer

Wheeler

Ryu

Tanaka

Sugano

Bumgarner

Odorizzi

Keuchel

Quintana

Paxton

Walker

etc.

I think the early departures of Stroman and Gausman, two pitchers that the Angels seemed interested in, also is a factor. Morton, too. Stroman was probably as desireable as Ryu or Tanaka, Gausman and Morton just a bit below.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[floplag]

After Realmuto.

[Angel Oracle]

Voted for late January, now that ST is supposedly starting on time.