Prediction: The Angels won't spend as much as you think

[kevinb]

I agree. I don't think baseball in general spends normally this off season. Especially with the fear that this stuff goes into 2021 and maybe even 2022. This whole economy could be in a world of hurt. 

[Chuck]

On 10/24/2020 at 4:05 PM, Dochalo said:

We are seeing more and more come across the wire about mlb and the potential losses or decreased revenues from 2020 and how that could impact 2021.  Manfred talking about 3 bil in losses.  Teams cutting staff.  Owners crying poverty.   

Arte, while he's willing to spend, tends to stay pretty tight to a budget and seems to pay close attention to the bottom line when it comes to money.  

So I thought I would do a little back of the napkin math.  Per reports, MLB teams get about 40% of their revenue from gate receipts and the Angels normally have revenue in the 375m range which means about 150m comes from people going to games.  

Granted, I think we will see fans return to games next year, I don't think the halos will be seeing the number of fans they've had or claimed to have in the recent past.  Even conservatively, I think we can assume at least a decrease in gate revenue by about 1/3rd which is about 50m.  Because not only will there be fewer fans due to restrictions, but I think people will just be less likely to go out as frequently (at least for awhile) and there is less ancillary income for people to spend with layoffs and furloughs etc.  

If they're able to cut about 10m from areas that don't include the major league roster.  Leaving about another 40m to cut from somewhere else.  Can you assume that fans will come back in full force down the line?  And the financial snowball effect that has on teams going forward like with franchise values etc.  

Will the mlbpa be agreeable to kicking the can down the road with deferrals and other cost saving maneuvers?  Would a player under a guaranteed contract agree to deferring some money with no interest or even taking a pay cut so that free agency can remain as stout as it's been?  That's gonna create some internal conflict among the players should that be suggested.   I am sure the free agent prices will get pushed down about but all existing player contracts, arb estimates, league min salaries, draft bonuses - essentially all of baseball's financial infrastructure has been modeled on existing revenue so it sorta falls apart if you lose 1/3rd of that.  Will TV deals get renegotiated? Will mlb kick more money to the teams from streaming and other media.  

But back to the halos, with 40m less in revenue to the mlb roster for 2021, what happens?  That's puts the team right at about where it currently stands from a payroll standpoint and as we know, the team needs help.  I think they'll split the difference and maybe add about 15-20m to what is already committed (or likely to be).  

I think we're gonna see some interesting and odd moves from quite a few teams this off season that or more financially driven than baseball team on the field driven.  

I agree. 

Which means we'll sign Bauer and Stroman. 

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Manfred isn't even waiting for the WS to be over before starting to complain about MLB "losing" money...

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2020/mlb-debt-2020-manfred-1234615474/amp/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=exacttarget&utm_campaign=Sportico_BreakingNews&utm_content=235491_10-26-2020_headline&utm_term=8166397&__twitter_impression=true

Its gonna be a crazy off-season.

there was an article with a similar quote from him a few days ago which was the impetus for my OP.  

MLB had revenue of 10.7 bil in 2019.  3 bil in losses over 37% of a season even with playoffs would translate into almost 8 bil over a whole year.  

The short term numbers could be even worse than I originally thought.  Even if 50-60% of fans show up next year, that could still mean 30-35% loss in revenue for each team on avg.  

For the halos, that would be closer to 100 mil in lost revenue (or more) vs. the 50m that I mentioned.  I could understand trying to get the owners to 'ride it out' if the losses were in the 10% range over a short term, but there is no way you're going to convince them to do that when losses could be 30+ % for an unknown period.  How many of the owners are going to be concerned that things are going back to normal even after all is said and done?  My guess is that there will be quite a few claiming that there will be a new normal and that no one knows what that is yet.  

With the CBA coming up, this off season is going to be a blood bath.  The owners are going to attempt to reset the entire free agent market for the foreseeable future and the players are going to cry foul and collusion.  Teams are going to cut their operational budgets like crazy.  

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

there was an article with a similar quote from him a few days ago which was the impetus for my OP.  

MLB had revenue of 10.7 bil in 2019.  3 bil in losses over 37% of a season even with playoffs would translate into almost 8 bil over a whole year.  

The short term numbers could be even worse than I originally thought.  Even if 50-60% of fans show up next year, that could still mean 30-35% loss in revenue for each team on avg.  

For the halos, that would be closer to 100 mil in lost revenue (or more) vs. the 50m that I mentioned.  I could understand trying to get the owners to 'ride it out' if the losses were in the 10% range over a short term, but there is no way you're going to convince them to do that when losses could be 30+ % for an unknown period.  How many of the owners are going to be concerned that things are going back to normal even after all is said and done?  My guess is that there will be quite a few claiming that there will be a new normal and that no one knows what that is yet.  

With the CBA coming up, this off season is going to be a blood bath.  The owners are going to attempt to reset the entire free agent market for the foreseeable future and the players are going to cry foul and collusion.  Teams are going to cut their operational budgets like crazy.  

Agree 100% and now there is also the news that now both High and Low A may be taken out.

[T.G.]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

no they don't.  

think about it.  

Yeah, they have on multiple occasions. 

I have no expectations for this off season because it's such a strange year.

 

[yk9001]

So teams don't shower crap producers like Pujols a quarter billion dollars any more.  Whoop de damn do.

 

[Tank]

On 10/25/2020 at 7:31 AM, T.G. said:

How do you know how much I think the Angels will spend?

We had the fbi put together a dossier about you. Most of us have read it already. I think @ettinwas the last one to have it.

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Tank said:

We had the fbi put together a dossier about you. Most of us have read it already. I think @ettinwas the last one to have it.

Good. I wrote that.

[Blarg]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:55 PM, Inside Pitch said:

Manfred isn't even waiting for the WS to be over before starting to complain about MLB "losing" money...

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2020/mlb-debt-2020-manfred-1234615474/amp/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=exacttarget&utm_campaign=Sportico_BreakingNews&utm_content=235491_10-26-2020_headline&utm_term=8166397&__twitter_impression=true

Its gonna be a crazy off-season.

Maybe if the stupid fuck hadn't polluted the waters at the start of the season pitting owners against players against fans, then possibly he wouldn't be seeing such a drop in tv ratings during a season when for much of it they were the only thing to watch. He is such a terrible commissioner you almost miss slimy Selig. 

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Good. I wrote that.

Wait, you’re a g-man? Ha, I knew it! Lou owes me $20.

[T.G.]

21 minutes ago, Tank said:

Wait, you’re a g-man? Ha, I knew it! Lou owes me $20.

I work for Lou

[Docwaukee]

37 minutes ago, T.G. said:

I work for Lou

You're Kobayashi?  

[Lou]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

You're Kobayashi?  

I was thinking earlier today that I hadn't watched that movie in a long time. 

[T.G.]

26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

You're Kobayashi?  

Murray Slaughter

[Tank]

3 hours ago, T.G. said:

I work for Lou

[Angels 1961]

Writing is on the wall for all teams now. Artie sole owner of Angels will be looking to cut everywhere. We have no idea how much each team has lost this year but in the millions for each team. Nobody knows what is going to happen next year but halos will not have 3 million in attendance. Wait and see will be most teams approach this winter. With new agreement with MLBPA and owners after 2021 it will be interesting to watch.

[AngelsLakersFan]

40 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Writing is on the wall for all teams now. Artie sole owner of Angels will be looking to cut everywhere. We have no idea how much each team has lost this year but in the millions for each team. Nobody knows what is going to happen next year but halos will not have 3 million in attendance. Wait and see will be most teams approach this winter. With new agreement with MLBPA and owners after 2021 it will be interesting to watch.

Nobody lost any money.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Nobody lost any money.

why do you say that and based on what info?  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I understand that Arte might not be willing to spend as much as we would like. But, if we's willing to take a hit for a year, the team could easy turn this team around. Not only that what it could help the team in the long run aswell. Pujols is off the playroll after 21, than Upton after 22, that's over 55 mil coming off. I know we'll have to re-sign Bundy and Heaney, but we also have Determs coming up and he can replace heaney, or we could re-sign him to team friendly deal. With Bundy, if he can repeat or be a mid to upper 3 era guy than he can be resigned.

This year, we could potentily sign guys under their value and for less years. 

For exam a guys like Hendriks you potentially sign him for around 10 mil over 3 years, but in traditional market he would have been close to 15 mil a year contract. 

Same could be said with a few other guys. 

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I understand that Arte might not be willing to spend as much as we would like. But, if we's willing to take a hit for a year, the team could easy turn this team around. Not only that what it could help the team in the long run aswell. Pujols is off the playroll after 21, than Upton after 22, that's over 55 mil coming off. I know we'll have to re-sign Bundy and Heaney, but we also have Determs coming up and he can replace heaney, or we could re-sign him to team friendly deal. With Bundy, if he can repeat or be a mid to upper 3 era guy than he can be resigned.

This year, we could potentily sign guys under their value and for less years. 

For exam a guys like Hendriks you potentially sign him for around 10 mil over 3 years, but in traditional market he would have been close to 15 mil a year contract. 

Same could be said with a few other guys. 

It'll be interesting to see what Arte does.  The fact that he will be paying two managers and two GMs next year does seem to indicate that he is willing to spend, to a degree.

Anyone who is willing to spend some money this offseason is likely to come out "ahead" in terms of surplus value, as most teams are looking to slash payroll significantly.

Using Fangraphs' projected contracts/AAVs, we can probably easily afford Bauer (25mil/yr) and Gausman (12-14mil/yr) and stay under the luxury tax.

Furthermore, relievers are likely to be very cheap based on what we just saw.  We could, potentially, sign someone like Brad Hand for a 2/10 type deal, which would be a huge bargain.  We would still project to come in under the luxury tax with those 3 moves.

I don't anticipate that happening, but could you imagine?  Our rotation would be very deep:  Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Gausman, Barria, Ohtani as our top 6.  Canning and Suarez could be SP7/SP8, in AAA and stretched out, and likely both will make a lot of starts with the big league club (due to injuries, etc).  Naughton could be SP9 in that hierarchy and make a few starts as needed.  Our bullpen would be deep, too:  Hand, Mayers, Pena, Andriese, Buttrey, Sandoval (multi-inning lefty weapon), Middleton, Ramirez, Reyes, etc.

Those 3 moves, at those 3 projected values, would enable us to greatly strengthen our rotation and bullpen.  Our offense should still be strong, even without any significant offseason moves.

[Docwaukee]

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/10/21/cubs-organization-gutted-by-sweeping-layoffs-of-over-100-employees-roughly-half-in-baseball-operations/

The Athletic reports that the Cubs have trimmed 47 full-time positions from the baseball side, along with 13 part-timers let go at the start of the pandemic, which means close to 50 more jobs have been eliminated from the business side. This is all fallout from a reported $140 million revenue loss this season and a projected loss of $120 million loss next season, though it’s important to note that failing to make as much as expected isn’t the same as actually losing money.

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/10/21/cubs-organization-gutted-by-sweeping-layoffs-of-over-100-employees-roughly-half-in-baseball-operations/

The Athletic reports that the Cubs have trimmed 47 full-time positions from the baseball side, along with 13 part-timers let go at the start of the pandemic, which means close to 50 more jobs have been eliminated from the business side. This is all fallout from a reported $140 million revenue loss this season and a projected loss of $120 million loss next season, though it’s important to note that failing to make as much as expected isn’t the same as actually losing money.

Bingo.

 

Oh, and Arte is cheap.

[Erstad Grit]

If arte didn't want to spend he wouldn't have fired GM and pay him plus the rehire.  This could be the perfect offseason if we're the only team spending big money

[makepeac]

That article in The Athletic from ten days ago pointed out that in addition to the Cubs, the Nationals, White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Angels and Giants have also enacted cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, furloughs, salary reductions and buyout packages.

As Lou alluded to, Arte just did it and had it reported in the press earlier. Does that make him cheap or a shrewd businessman making tough decisions?

[Docwaukee]

most of the people who own a sports franchise are at least decently shrewd.  Or I think we can make that assumption.  I only say most because there are some who have inherited.  

Billion or at least half billion dollar business are always going to be looking to make money and improve their margins.  It doesn't mean they always make good decisions, but they are typically aware of cost cutting moves that flow to the bottom line.  

I know people want Arte to leverage his billions on winning, but all I have to say about that is good effin luck.