Prediction: The Angels won't spend as much as you think

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 hours ago, Dochalo said:

why do you say that and based on what info?  

If you had been following the coverage of the negotiations at the start of the pandemic on FanGraphs there was a ton of coverage on this. When the owners talk about losses they are talking about loss of profits. The league has certainly seen dramatic reductions in profits this year but as a whole the league is fine. They were sure to play enough games to fulfill the obligations of their television contracts while limiting the number of games they had to pay players their salaries (without the benefit of gate revenue). Teams with big tv deals and low payrolls did the best, while some teams with higher payrolls and smaller tv deals needed help from the league to stay out of the red. The union negotiated the owners the ability to restructure the revenue sharing rules, which should easily keep every team out of the red. Let's also not forget the expanded playoffs. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

failing to make as much as expected isn’t the same as actually losing money.

 

6 hours ago, Lou said:

Bingo.

 

Oh, and Arte is cheap.

Are there any other businesses that refer to making less money than they expected to as "losses?"

[Revad]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

Are there any other businesses that refer to making less money than they expected to as "losses?"

Not that many monopolies around, I guess.

[zenmaster]

Artes plans are easy to figure out. Take a look at the top FAs, disregard the pitchers. The top 2 position players are guys who Arte will target. He's all about the big name splash!

The only other spending will be scrap heap type pitchers who once showed promise but have been "down on their luck" or just come back from their 12th TJ. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

With reports coming out that we might be looking at adding a 2nd baseman, i would beleive this implies that Arte is willing to spend?

 

 

 

 

 

Or he just wants more offense...

[Warfarin]

37 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

With reports coming out that we might be looking at adding a 2nd baseman, i would beleive this implies that Arte is willing to spend?

 

I'm critical of Arte for many reasons (antiquated views of the FO and analytics, being impatient, meddling too much in player personnel decisions), but the one thing I will give him credit for is he does seem to really want to win and is, at least, willing to spend on player payroll to get there.

I don't expect Arte to cut back on payroll, and I do expect to see the team make a few moves. With a number of teams poised to sit out free agency and actively cutback on payroll, there will likely be quite a number of good "value plays" out there, so if Arte is willing to spend and be patient (this is the key!), we can likely see a number of pretty good signings in January/February.

That said though, here's hoping he ponies up to sign Bauer, who would totally transform this team's pitching outlook.

[Revad]

As always, there are more holes to fill than money available.  Two SP (or Bauer), least one quality RP, 2b, RF and catcher.  What if the budget is closer to $15 than $30M?

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Revad said:

As always, there are more holes to fill than money available.  Two SP (or Bauer), least one quality RP, 2b, RF and catcher.  What if the budget is closer to $15 than $30M?

They can fill Catcher, RF and 2nd for a total of $6-8 million, easy. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

As always, there are more holes to fill than money available.  Two SP (or Bauer), least one quality RP, 2b, RF and catcher.  What if the budget is closer to $15 than $30M?

Doubtful they need an OF.  Even if Adell starts in AAA, Ward showed himself more than capable of holding down the fort.  Between Marsh and Adell, one will likely be ready to step in fairly soon.

Do we need a catcher?  Maybe not.  Stassi might be slightly delayed, but not too much.  Bemboom and Briceno can probably decently hold down the fort until he's ready.

Based on what just happened to Brad Hand, the RP market will likely be incredibly cheap and shouldn't be hard to find a pretty decent reliever for a very, very small cost.

The key thing will be spending money to fill our SP holes.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Doubtful they need an OF.  Even if Adell starts in AAA, Ward showed himself more than capable of holding down the fort.  Between Marsh and Adell, one will likely be ready to step in fairly soon.

Do we need a catcher?  Maybe not.  Stassi might be slightly delayed, but not too much.  Bemboom and Briceno can probably decently hold down the fort until he's ready.

Based on what just happened to Brad Hand, the RP market will likely be incredibly cheap and shouldn't be hard to find a pretty decent reliever for a very, very small cost.

The key thing will be spending money to fill our SP holes.

I still think counting on Ward, Adell, Rengifo and Barreto to cover over 20% of your lineup is a recipe for disaster. Even if none of them are terrible what are the odds that we get above average production out of 2B and RF next year? With the way the market looks we should be able to bring in a couple of stop gap players at limited cost who should project to be average or better.

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I still think counting on Ward, Adell, Rengifo and Barreto to cover over 20% of your lineup is a recipe for disaster. Even if none of them are terrible what are the odds that we get above average production out of 2B and RF next year? With the way the market looks we should be able to bring in a couple of stop gap players at limited cost who should project to be average or better.

Sure, that's a great point, and I've actually modulated my thinking about this offseason a bit.

There are certain positions that are likely going to be very, very cheap and undervalued.  2B is likely one of those positions, as is OF depth.  Likely, we can find a 1-2 year stopgap at 2B, along with perhaps a platoon OF for rather cheap, along with relievers.

My goal is still to sign Bauer, which will be expensive, but perhaps not as expensive as one would think.  If it is, then we can do the following:

1.  Sign 2B/OF/relief.  Again, we can probably spend 20-25mil in these areas and come away with quite a few good players.  Build a very strong pen and lengthen our lineup.  Maybe we can get ourselves one of Hernandez/Wong, someone like Pederson, and maybe Hand/Treinen.  Sounds crazy to add all of that, but it could be very possible.

2.  Trade some assets for a SP.  I am still all for trading Adell for either a CLE or DET SP.  This approach may leave us with a decent but not great rotation, but with a very strong lineup and strong bullpen, we can probably deal with it.

 

[Pancake Bear]

11 hours ago, zenmaster said:

Artes plans are easy to figure out. Take a look at the top FAs, disregard the pitchers. The top 2 position players are guys who Arte will target. He's all about the big name splash!

The only other spending will be scrap heap type pitchers who once showed promise but have been "down on their luck" or just come back from their 12th TJ. 

"Starters only pitch every five days. How is that worth as much as a position player? Heck, I'd pay more for a reliever -- at least they can pitch a handful of times a week." -- Arte (probably)