Billy Eppler's whiffs on acquiring starting pitching

[Jeff Fletcher]

Here’s what Eppler has said when I’ve asked him about this...

Multiyear deals for SPs are highly risky. You have a less than 50-50 chance of getting it right and when you get it wrong it goes really wrong. So every year they target maybe 3-4 guys who they think are worth the risk (Corbin, Eovaldi, Strasburg, Wheeler, Cole off the top of my head. I believe they were interested in Keuchel for 2). Generally they’re gonna lean toward the 28-29 guys than the 30+ guys, for obvious reasons, but there aren’t too many of those. 
 

Anyway, none of them took the Angels money. One of them they offered what would have been the largest FA contract ever for a pitcher, only to have another team go another $30M on top of that. 
 

So if you don’t get any of those guys, you are shopping in the bargain bin. And their failure there depends on your expectations. Have they gotten any All-Stars? No. Have they gotten anyone who has been an above average starter for more than a year? No. 
 

But if you measure them against the cost of acquisition, I think they came out ahead on Chacin, JC Ramirez, Felix Peña, Parker Bridwell and Patrick Sandoval. And they still could on Dylan Bundy. They still could come out way ahead on Shohei Ohtani (and arguably have already, since he cost almost nothing and also hits).

EDIT: They basically got Nolasco and Meyer for Hector Santiago. Nolasco and Santiago is just about a push, and arguably Nolasco is more durable. And so then that’s Meyer for nothing (well Alan Busenitz) and he had a shot to do something and looked OK for a minute. 
 

Cahill and Harvey where total whiffs but they were one-year whiffs so no long-term harm done. Teheran seems to be a whiff but the guy got coronavirus and had no spring training. His track record is about as consistent as they come, so it’s hard to put that one on Eppler. Also, he still has time to be useful. He’s pitched 16 innings. 
 

It’s also fair to criticize the Angels for failing to develop starters. That’s the biggest problem. You build a good pitching staff from within. (Look at the Dodgers.) That has been their biggest failure and that takes time and is the responsibility of a lot of people beyond Eppler.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Jeff Fletcher

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, eligrba said:

I think this is an accurate synopsis of the shit show Eppler inherited.  I am curious to know your perspective on the current status for each of the points you mentioned.

The pen has settled down after starting out as a dumpster fire.  That set the tone for this shit show of a season but I think we'll see them end up being pretty decent by the time this season is over.  I actually really like how he acquired quite a few bargain basement arms and given the team a fairly solid pen while spending almost nothing.  

The offense is very good.  But also very expensive.  Like I mentioned in a post a few down to the one you quoted, there is one player on this roster who stands to be a financial burden as far out as 2022.  Otherwise he's actually done a very good job with what he's had to work with.  Locking up Trout.  Getting Rendon.  I'm still hopeful that Upton can rebound enough to make him at least a solid bat.  He's definitely streaky and always has been but can carry you at times.  But you look at other acquisitions that, again, he essentially got for a song.  Like La Stella and Goodwin.  Or young players with high upside and club control like Adell, Ohtani, Rengifo.  Even Stassi, who I thought was a terrible acquisition but is showing good promise both at the plate and behind it.  And Simmons has been very valuable.  If they don't intend on keeping him and can flip him for a couple prospects then even better.  

the farm system is middle of the pack.  I think it could have made a big jump this year as it is one of the youngest systems in baseball in terms of assets.  He inherited 'one of the worst systems ever'.  And in retrospect that was spot on.  It's still recovering from a depth standpoint.  But he's done a very nice job of bringing it back.  I think we're gonna reap the benefits of that over the next 3-4 years.  Another thing I'd like to highlight in this regard is how injuries to the major league club can impact a farm system.  It's a double whammy.  Not only do you lose the innings/production at the major league level but you lose trade capital.  An example - imagine having gone into the deadline of 2018 as sellers with a healthy Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker.   That's probably 3 top 100 prospects plus another 2 or 3 depth level prospects that could have been acquired had they been tradeable assets.  That's huge guys and gals.  People underestimate the value of being able to make one or two timely sell off trades and the impact it can have on a farm system.    

ex - June 4, 2016: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Erik Johnson to the San Diego Padres for James Shields and cash.

Shields was 34 at the time.  Tatis was an unranked 17yo intl prospect in rookie ball.  That's a return that even a Matt Shoemaker trade could have net you.  You're not always going to get a Tatis, but how about another David Fletcher 

Payroll is no longer bloated.  There should be financial flex going forward.  

Overall, the team is in much better shape than the one Eppler took on.  Even if we're not winning right now (which I frankly don't really care about to be honest), we're in a better position to do so than we were five years ago.  

I think one of the real questions people are asking though, is.........Where is our Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Brandon Woodruff or even Lance Lynn?  You'd think there would be a guy or two that Eppler could have acquired that would be a solid #2 by now and I get it.  I don't really have an answer for that one other to say that I wouldn't give up on the potential of both Canning and Sandoval.   Maybe Eppler has been unlucky or maybe it truly is a bit of a blind spot for him.  

There are ways around that btw.  The scouts you hire.  Your farm director.  Or something more creative like hiring an assistant GM with a track record for having an eye for pitching.  So yes, they could be doing a better job.  But in the end, it basically amounts to one player that would change a lot of people's perspective.  

[Docwaukee]

I would like to add that at some point the GM is absolutely accountable for getting it right on a couple of high risk moves.   You do have to take some chances and you do have to get those right.  That's where, as a GM you are earning your money and what makes you better than just another guy.  Eppler is probably a little better than just another guy but it's those 2-3 moves that pull everything together that can define a tenure of being elite or at least really really good.  That is something Eppler has yet to achieve.  Or at least it doesn't look like that's how it will currently play out.   

[AngelsLakersFan]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Hey Billy.  Here are six dimes, two nickles, four toothpicks, a spoon, some dip spit and a car blanket with a dodgers logo.  Now build me a pitching staff.  

or in real life

Hey Billy.  You've got about 40mil to spend on starting pitching spread out over the next 5 years.  And you don't know this yet, but 6 of the guys you inherited that were supposed to anchor the staff for the next few years will give you about 3 seasons worth of innings TOTAL over the next 5 years.  And one of those guys will die tragically.  

oh and your offense and bullpen are kind of a mess too.  

oh and you have the worst farm system in baseball.  

oh and you have a bloated payroll and can't spend hardly any money elsewhere either.  

the lack of context in the OP is impressive.  

I would be careful about claiming Bundy as a success or Teheran a failure so far.  

So when he's truly had and opportunity to improve via free agency, he 0-2 in Cahill and Harvey.  

Plus he's added Canning, Sandoval, Ohtani who are all 25 or younger.  

He also hasn't spent hardly a dime on the pen.  

The only misstep he's made that is currently impacting the team is Justin Upton.  

I'll repeat that in a different way.  There is one player on the roster that stands to have a negative financial impact in the next 2+ years.  

This is all fair and I'm not on the Fire Billy Bandwagon but I think he is far from devoid of criticism.

He has spent very little money on pitching... most of his pickups are waiver wire moves and when he has opened up Arte's checkbook and spent a little he has flushed that money down the drain almost to the penny... He is incredibly cautious with cash avoiding just about any reliever (except Allen) arb eligible or above, or seemingly any starter requiring more than a year commitment with any blemishes. He passed on 5 or 6 guys this offseason for, I'm sure, very good reason while spending big money on luxury items like Upton and Rendon. He is enamored with guys who throw hard with big spin rates while ignoring guys with past success but without those desired skills.

Ultimately my beef with him is that he hasn't been playing to win. I understand all of his moves within the context they are made... he's trying to find value and build up org currency... but he has yet to make a series of moves that, when executed to expectation could reasonably result in a top 4 or 5 team.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Here’s what Eppler has said when I’ve asked him about this...

Multiyear deals for SPs are highly risky. You have a less than 50-50 chance of getting it right and when you get it wrong it goes really wrong. So every year they target maybe 3-4 guys who they think are worth the risk (Corbin, Eovaldi, Strasburg, Wheeler, Cole off the top of my head. I believe they were interested in Keuchel for 2). Generally they’re gonna lean toward the 28-29 guys than the 30+ guys, for obvious reasons, but there aren’t too many of those. 
 

Anyway, none of them took the Angels money. One of them they offered what would have been the largest FA contract ever for a pitcher, only to have another team go another $30M on top of that. 
 

So if you don’t get any of those guys, you are shopping in the bargain bin. And their failure there depends on your expectations. Have they gotten any All-Stars? No. Have they gotten anyone who has been an above average starter for more than a year? No. 
 

But if you measure them against the cost of acquisition, I think they came out ahead on Chacin, JC Ramirez, Felix Peña, Parker Bridwell and Patrick Sandoval. And they still could on Dylan Bundy. They still could come out way ahead on Shohei Ohtani (and arguably have already, since he cost almost nothing and also hits).

EDIT: They basically got Nolasco and Meyer for Hector Santiago. Nolasco and Santiago is just about a push, and arguably Nolasco is more durable. And so then that’s Meyer for nothing (well Alan Busenitz) and he had a shot to do something and looked OK for a minute. 
 

Cahill and Harvey where total whiffs but they were one-year whiffs so no long-term harm done. Teheran seems to be a whiff but the guy got coronavirus and had no spring training. His track record is about as consistent as they come, so it’s hard to put that one on Eppler. Also, he still has time to be useful. He’s pitched 16 innings. 
 

It’s also fair to criticize the Angels for failing to develop starters. That’s the biggest problem. You build a good pitching staff from within. (Look at the Dodgers.) That has been their biggest failure and that takes time and is the responsibility of a lot of people beyond Eppler.

What are your thoughts, Fletch, on the Halos amateur pitching scouting and development?   Is it solid enough in your mind, from what you’ve seen and heard?

They did select a lot of pitchers in the 2018 and 2019 drafts.

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

This is all fair and I'm not on the Fire Billy Bandwagon but I think he is far from devoid of criticism.

He has spent very little money on pitching... most of his pickups are waiver wire moves and when he has opened up Arte's checkbook and spent a little he has flushed that money down the drain almost to the penny... He is incredibly cautious with cash avoiding just about any reliever (except Allen) arb eligible or above, or seemingly any starter requiring more than a year commitment with any blemishes. He passed on 5 or 6 guys this offseason for, I'm sure, very good reason while spending big money on luxury items like Upton and Rendon. He is enamored with guys who throw hard with big spin rates while ignoring guys with past success but without those desired skills.

Ultimately my beef with him is that he hasn't been playing to win. I understand all of his moves within the context they are made... he's trying to find value and build up org currency... but he has yet to make a series of moves that, when executed to expectation could reasonably result in a top 4 or 5 team.

Agree.  see my supplemental post.  Sometime you have to get risk right if your are going to take your team to the next level and he's yet to do that.  You can't bargain shop forever.  

[Brandon]

Meh, we put in an offer that would have made Cole the highest paid FA pitcher and got beat. I think I also read we put in a legit offer for Wheeler and he wanted to stay on the east coast.

I can't fault that when you finally have the go to open the pocket book. Outside of these he has been hamstrung by some combo of Arte or the luxury tax. He's had to dumpster dive because of what we already have tied up.

[AngelsLakersFan]

30 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Meh, we put in an offer that would have made Cole the highest paid FA pitcher and got beat. I think I also read we put in a legit offer for Wheeler and he wanted to stay on the east coast.

He passed on other opportunities so that he had enough money for Cole. I haven't read anywhere that we made an offer to Wheeler, maybe he did only want to be on an east coast team or maybe Eppler just wasn't serious about anyone who went off the board before Cole. 

I very much think Eppler was played by Cole's fake desire to play here, when all he was really doing was driving up his price for NY. Billy got stuck with no pitching and a bag of cash which he ended up giving to Rendon.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He passed on other opportunities so that he had enough money for Cole. I haven't read anywhere that we made an offer to Wheeler, maybe he did only want to be on an east coast team or maybe Eppler just wasn't serious about anyone who went off the board before Cole. 

I very much think Eppler was played by Cole's fake desire to play here, when all he was really doing was driving up his price for NY. Billy got stuck with no pitching and a bag of cash which he ended up giving to Rendon.

I read that we were after Wheeler, but have no idea if it got to the point of making an official offer.  However, I assume that they discussed money parameters.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

45 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Agree.  see my supplemental post.  Sometime you have to get risk right if your are going to take your team to the next level and he's yet to do that.  You can't bargain shop forever.  

I wonder what this team's record is with Zach Wheeler and Dallas Keuchel instead of Rendon

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Stradling said:

I read that we were after Wheeler, but have no idea if it got to the point of making an official offer.  However, I assume that they discussed money parameters.  

If you recall Wheeler went for a lot more money than people expected, then Strausberg went for even more money than expected then Cole just went way over the top.

[Torridd]

I agree Billy has to go. I haven't read through this whole thread, but I wonder if Eppler is fired, would the new GM demand some money to spend on necessary pitching?

[mmc]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

His requesting respectful dialogue in on point.  @mymerlincat was also critical of this pitching staff all winter so, he's not someone popping off after the fact and he deserves his due there.  But neither Chuck's post nor his pointing to the Red's acquisitions were as black and white as they were attempting to paint them.

The argument for "context" when it comes to judging Eppler's moves has always been that he had his hands tied.    He deserves all the criticism in the world for Harvey and Cahill.   There are other moves that he could have made and didn't that might involve some hindsight but again are fair criticisms..  But to pretend the Angels weren't a dumpster fire and weren't victims of bad luck injury wise is just inane.

Anyway, I too hope this thread avoids being derailed.

I definitely understand his options were very limited, but it is still justifiable, IMO, to criticize him for not doing a better job of evaluating the talent from the options he DID have.  

[Chuck]

Good stuff guys, the point in making a thread like this isn't to prove anyone wrong (with the exception of Lou), but to encourage sound discussion. 

I know that Eppler inherited a shit farm system and some financial constraints, but if you're looking at the bottom line in terms of W/L and overall production from the people you've hired to work for you as the GM and they've done a shitty job, that criticism should be fully directed at the hiring manager (Eppler), not the previous hiring manager (Dipoto) or the owner of the company. 

The GM's responsibility is to produce good results for the company he works for, for the owner who hired him. I really don't need to expand on that any further. 

Happy Sunday to y'all! Go Halos! 

[Docwaukee]

24 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I agree Billy has to go. I haven't read through this whole thread, but I wonder if Eppler is fired, would the new GM demand some money to spend on necessary pitching?

you agree with who?  

what GM walks in and demands money from an owner?  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, JocStrapling said:

Really?  Maybe if Eppler was a stronger GM with conviction and boardroom game, that scenario would have turned out different. Honestly, Eppler has always struck me as a milquetoast personality that was only lauded due to his Yankee connection. 

I completely agree with this opinion.  Which is why I don’t give a free pass to Dipoto for Hamilton or Pujols and why I don’t simply give all the credit to Arte for Trout extension and the signing of Rendon.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, JocStrapling said:

Fair enough

I wasn’t kidding even a little bit.  I think it was @Inside Pitch that said one of the best quality a GM can have is the ability to protect the Owner from himself.  Stoneman was good at it, Dipoto wasn’t.  Eppler has been for the most part as it relates to vanity signings.  Regardless to how Stripling is performing this year, I would like him to be on our team assuming we wouldn’t miss the prospects going the other way.

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, JocStrapling said:

Really?  Maybe if Eppler was a stronger GM with conviction and boardroom game, that scenario would have turned out different. Honestly, Eppler has always struck me as a milquetoast personality that was only lauded due to his Yankee connection. 

You had me at milquetoast rather than “milk toast.”

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

What are your thoughts, Fletch, on the Halos amateur pitching scouting and development?   Is it solid enough in your mind, from what you’ve seen and heard?

They did select a lot of pitchers in the 2018 and 2019 drafts.

I am not qualified to evaluate them. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am not qualified to evaluate them. 

This should be repeated a helluva lot on this board.  

[Angelsjunky]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am not qualified to evaluate them. 

You clearly don't fit in here.

[tdawg87]

25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am not qualified to evaluate them. 

But 

[eligrba]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

you agree with who?  

what GM walks in and demands money from an owner?  

A GM who posts comments on a baseball forum.....

[eligrba]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am not qualified to evaluate them. 

That automatically makes you eligible to evaluate them. Qualification is overrated.

[fan_since79]

A good analysis of the Angels' troubles.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/24/los-angeles-angels-fail-mike-trout