Why Can't Any Pitching Metrics Pin Julio Teheran Down?

[rafibomb]

https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-why-cant-any-pitching-metrics-pin-julio-teheran-down/

Worth a read on how Teheran outperforms his peripherals year after year.

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Often, baseball analysts will use ERA predictors and peripherals to attempt to forecast players who are due for either positive or negative regression (or reversion). It often is a lazy approach that ignores several other factors. Pitchers like Nick Pivetta always seem to underperform their peripherals, while pitchers like Chase Anderson tend to outperform theirs. In statistics, there is never a case in which one statistic can tell the whole story. This is why people generally lean on multiple metrics to paint a fuller, more accurate picture. Well, Julio Teheran says to hell with your metrics! Since becoming a member of the Braves rotation, Teheran has been particularly confounding, compared to pretty much any other pitcher. This is a case of him exceeding expectations not once. Or twice. Or three times. No, Teheran has done this for the entirety of his career.

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At the end of the day, maybe we just have to accept that Teheran is weird, and he is unique, but he is very clearly not as skilled of a pitcher as he has been over his career. Overall, Julio Teheran is a slightly below-average pitcher, but if we’re talking results, his fly-ball tendencies and a remarkable trifecta of his current outfielders—and to a lesser extent, his home park—combine to make him an above-average pitcher. So for now, we can continue to expect Teheran to defy all of his ERA predictors, and his xwOBA too. So long as a healthy Inciarte is in the center with Acuna and Adam Duvall/Riley/Markakis flanking him, he’ll be just fine.

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by rafibomb

[Erstad Grit]

I remember Bridewell had good start despite the analytics suggesting it was fools gold. They turned out to be right. Teheran has beat the system for a long time. 

[tdawg87]

But obviously now they'll be right and he's going to be Cahill 2.0.

[tdawg87]

Teheran is very slippery

[John Taylor]

I am encouraged that his Home/Road splits aren't too off from each other which tells me that his performance isn't entirely due to a pitcher friendly ballpark. Even his projected stats say he should be a 4.25 ERA pitcher which honestly I'd be fine with as a back end starter compared to what we had last year. 4.25 ERA is better than pretty much the entire 2019 starting staff.

 

This also answers my "What's the catch" on Teheran. I was wondering why a guy with a career 3.66 ERA going into his 29 year old season wasn't being offered 5-6 year deals. I can see that predictive analytics don't line up with his actual performance. 

[ettin]

Part of his success is the poor contact he creates off the bat. Go look at his batting average against and his BABIP numbers they tell a lot of the story. His pitches simply come off opposing bats in an abnormal manner, leading to less hits/poor contact.

[totdprods]

My guess is this probably closes the door on Eppler swinging a trade for someone like Boyd, Ray, Gray, unless he really finds a match in a deal he likes. 

Given Teheran's fairly low salary commitment, it's more likely now he turns to Ryu for upside, Keuchel for 'durability', or a salary dump trade that costs little in prospect currency, like Price or Samardzija.

Maybe he gambles again on one-year deals and signs Alex Wood on a one-year deal too, and uses the money elsewhere like catcher, pen, another bench bat.

[Second Base]

Weav used to be similar. Again, I'm not thrilled with the Teheran signing, but I do acknowledge a few things....

1. He's going to cover innings. 

2. Mickey Callaway may try be a difference maker, helping the young ones develop and the veterans extend their careers.

3. Teheran has great offspeed pitches. If he changes his game to tell on those more heavily, the results may be even more positive.

[floplag]

8 hours ago, RBM said:

He’s been the same pitcher for 7 years from 22-28. Maybe it’s not him “beating the system”. Maybe the system is wrong or does not apply to his skillset. Love his sinker.

Happy we got him. 

Pretty much this, any "projections" are basically guesswork, even when based on a ton of historical data, there is no guarantee.
When you see a guy that has consistently beaten the math over an extended period, in this case basically his entire career, and is therefore not anomalous at that point, you kinda have to think the system isnt 100% perfect.
Its either that or hes a 7 year anomaly... which would you rather believe? 

[hangin n wangin]

Yep. Weaver comes to mind as someone who outperformed his peripherals, although Weaver did it at a higher level, as he was a better pitcher.

[Jeff Fletcher]

In a lot of cases the predictive stuff is still based on the old concept of FIP, which I think has been pretty thoroughly debunked. The idea that pitchers have no control of the quality of contact simply goes against common sense.

[GregAlso]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

In a lot of cases the predictive stuff is still based on the old concept of FIP, which I think has been pretty thoroughly debunked. The idea that pitchers have no control of the quality of contact simply goes against common sense.

Isn’t there some predictive theory coming off of the statcast data? I feel like I’ve been reading about expected stats based off batted ball data. I haven’t been following it closely. I wonder if that info would help better predict someone like Tehran.

[Tank]

how do we actually say his name? is it tay-RAHN or ta-HAIR-on?

[Taylor]

7 minutes ago, Tank said:

how do we actually say his name? is it tay-RAHN or ta-HAIR-on?

I'll hold my opinion until I hear Jose Mota pronounce it.

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I'll hold my opinion until I hear Jose Mota pronounce it.

then two-ROO-ran it shall be!

[Jeff Fletcher]

54 minutes ago, GregAlso said:

Isn’t there some predictive theory coming off of the statcast data? I feel like I’ve been reading about expected stats based off batted ball data. I haven’t been following it closely. I wonder if that info would help better predict someone like Tehran.

Yes. All that xBA and xwOBA stuff. They grade pitchers on quality of contact allowed. He’s been a little better than average the last few years. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

how do we actually say his name? is it tay-RAHN or ta-HAIR-on?

Extend the Teh--Rahn.    Ideally, you'd extend the teh sound a littlle to account for the second syllable.

[Erstad Grit]

The Braves thoughts on him were equally confusing. He was their opening day starter and left off the playoff roster. I don't get why they paid him 1 million to go away, why not just keep him for another 11 million? 

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

how do we actually say his name? is it tay-RAHN or ta-HAIR-on?

the first one. 

sigh, white people....

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

The Braves thoughts on him were equally confusing. He was their opening day starter and left off the playoff roster. I don't get why they paid him 1 million to go away, why not just keep him for another 11 million? 

They needed the money for other things and have a boatload of prospects who should be able to put up comparable production as soon as 2020.

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

The Braves thoughts on him were equally confusing. He was their opening day starter and left off the playoff roster. I don't get why they paid him 1 million to go away, why not just keep him for another 11 million? 

10 million reasons would be my guess.

[tdawg87]

22 minutes ago, Lou said:

the first one. 

sigh, white people....

What about his first name? It's "Jew-Leo" right?

[Erstad Grit]

32 minutes ago, totdprods said:

They needed the money for other things and have a boatload of prospects who should be able to put up comparable production as soon as 2020.

 

31 minutes ago, Lou said:

10 million reasons would be my guess.

 

Yet they signed Cole Hamels for 1 year 18 million

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Yet they signed Cole Hamels for 1 year 18 million

I guess we should have picked up Calhoun's option then, seeing how we've signed free agents since buying out his option. 

[Glen]

47 minutes ago, Lou said:

the first one. 

sigh, white people....

Wuh-HITE people.