What If Cole Is Too Expensive?

[Glen]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the Angels can afford Cole.  

if you can afford 6/180, then you can afford 7/210 or even 7/231

It's not about affording it.  It's about accepting the consequences in year 7 instead of having the contract done after 6.  You know you are going to have to go at least 6 for him.  If you even bother with 5, you're stupid.  If you're worried about how that 37m of backloaded salary to a 35yo pitcher will impact your 2026 season then you shouldn't be trying to get Gerrit Cole.  

And he's not overpaid if the market determines his worth.  At least not yet.  We have no idea if he'll be overpaid until the contract is done.  Was Scherzer overpaid?  

If someone comes in at 40m per then let someone else pay that.  But if he's at 30-33 per year or so, or maybe even a little more, then have at it and worry about 2026 a few years from now.  

Also, would you spend an extra 3m per year on Cole in order to keep from having to trade Marsh for a pitcher?  

 

I know what Fletcher said about teams being much more analytical with regards to free agents, but with the Yankees and Dodgers most likely in on Cole I can't see him going for less than $35 million a year.  Unless he voluntarily takes less to be witha team.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Glen said:

 

I know what Fletcher said about teams being much more analytical with regards to free agents, but with the Yankees and Dodgers most likely in on Cole I can't see him going for less than $35 million a year.  Unless he voluntarily takes less to be witha team.

I’m not sure that’s how it runs as much anymore. It used to be some owner would come in with the high bid and win the offseason. These days front offices are reluctant to budge much from their internal valuation of a given player. Maybe that changes with Cole, but I’m skeptical we see a bunch of teams just upping the bidding. 35m is significantly more than any other pitcher has gotten before now for 7 years. Usually the market doesn’t shift that sharply. Again, that could change; these things are always to some degree in flux.

But the teams most likely to push their internal budget are the teams most desperate. That won’t be the Red Sox or Astros, probably. I suppose it could be the Yankees or Dodgers if they’re desperate for a championship and feel its worth the risk of the highest pitcher contract of all time, but I would probably expect to see them try for a shorter deal with an opt out or a really high aav on 4-5 years. I doubt Cole goes for that. Free agents rarely do. 

The Angels have a strong likelihood because they have a good team apart from starting pitching, and they’re desperate to return to the playoffs, and they have the money. The teams most likely to be in the bidding will be those teams who are in a similar position, in my opinion. I could be wrong, though. I’m often wrong. 

[Claude]

3 minutes ago, Glen said:

 

I know what Fletcher said about teams being much more analytical with regards to free agents, but with the Yankees and Dodgers most likely in on Cole I can't see him going for less than $35 million a year.  Unless he voluntarily takes less to be witha team.

The Yankees won't be in on Cole. They just don't want Boston to be in on Cole. They would actually prefer that Cole plays out west which will have little or no impact on them.

[TheUPSman]

We're gonna have to overpay for Cole. The Yankees all but flat out said they're perusing Cole. The price just went up and my initial thought that it'd take 7 and 245 probably isn't enough now. It all comes down to Arte and what he's comfortable with not Eppler. It might be tight this year spending 35 + mil a year for Cole and whatever else it takes for, say, Wheeler and Grandal, but Cozart comes off the books next year and Pujols 2021. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, TheUPSman said:

We're gonna have to overpay for Cole. The Yankees all but flat out said they're perusing Cole. The price just went up and my initial thought that it'd take 7 and 245 probably isn't enough now. It all comes down to Arte and what he's comfortable with not Eppler. It might be tight this year spending 35 + mil a year for Cole and whatever else it takes for, say, Wheeler and Grandal, but Cozart comes off the books next year and Pujols 2021. 

NY media said they were expected to pursuehim. Their payroll is already quite high and they’ve been reluctant to go George-level big. They went low on years on Corbin last year and he even wanted to go to NY. I’m skeptical their offer is top 3.

Maybe they’ve gotten desperate, but recent history suggests they won’t go all the way in. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Personally, I still wouldnt rule NY out. Or the Dodgers. Or the mets. Or the every other team.

I just say that to plan for the worst.

It seems like were at the least A frontrunner, but, I dont think we should consider it a slam dunk.

From reading the thread, my thoughts are first, Cole is going to be super expensive. And like Trout, one day will be an anchor. That said, like trout, you get what you pay for. Cole is a super dominant number 1, and we havent had one of those in years and years. Nobody in the minors projects to be one, either.

So while it will hurt the pocketbook, it will be worth it IMO.

As far as if we dont sign him. It will be a letdown, but if the money is spent in other ways to help (like Wheeler and some other really good player), Ill be happy.

[Lou]

Cole is a lock.

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Cole Hamels is a lock.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Glen said:

 

I know what Fletcher said about teams being much more analytical with regards to free agents, but with the Yankees and Dodgers most likely in on Cole I can't see him going for less than $35 million a year.  Unless he voluntarily takes less to be witha team.

I think the Yankees will be roughy at the payroll tax level when you factor in their arbitration raises.  They could pursue Cole, but doing so would likely put them close to that 40mil above the LT level that most teams don't want to surpass.  I think our greatest threat for Cole will be the Padres, who are looking to contend starting next year and have tons of payroll space.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think our greatest threat for Cole will be the Padres, who are looking to contend starting next year and have tons of payroll space.  

Is it me, or does it seem like thats the case almost every year with them?

[ten ocho recon scout]

What if its a plot twist, and when he was talking about the 02 series, he was there as a giants fan, and will be replacing madbum?

[ten ocho recon scout]

Like it happens, and we go back and read his statements, and its like a keyser soze moment.

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

What if its a plot twist, and when he was talking about the 02 series, he was there as a giants fan, and will be replacing madbum?

 

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Like it happens, and we go back and read his statements, and its like a keyser soze moment.

I don’t like your thought process on this. Cut it out.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Is it me, or does it seem like thats the case almost every year with them?

They've been patiently building their farm system, but I think they're at the point now where they'll start going for it.  They signed Machado last year, although I think the consensus was they were still a year away.  

[ScottT]

He's not.

Its debatable if its smarter to use the money in another manner. Two starters and a catcher, perhaps... instead of Cole and one pitcher. 7 years for a pitcher his age is scary. 

I really dont think this is Eppler's call.  Arte is "pissed".  

[Docwaukee]

I think the dogs will make a shorter term offer with a high aav like 5/200 and it won't be enough

The Yanks I just don't know.  They could make a run but the Angels will be close enough where he would choose them because I truly believe he's serious about wanting to play out west for what will amount to the remainder of his career.  

I don't think SD is gonna go after him.  I think they blew their load on Machado.  They're gonna wait for their young pitching (and other prospects) now.  

I still think the CWS are gonna start throwing some money around this year.  If there's a team we have to worry about throwing a stupid offer at Cole, it's them.  They've got a good young offense and Giolito at the top of their rotation already and their payroll is a little over 50m.  They could actually afford Cole and Rendon plus others without a problem.  

[Troll Daddy]

Cole will be too expensive  ... but we all know that won’t get in Arte’s way. 

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Odorizzi has bust written all over him.  There, I said it.  

thank you! i've been sitting here every time his name is mentioned saying, "what am i missing?"

outside of strasburg, who's not a real FA, wheeler is the second best apple in the bushel. i'd love for the angels to sign cole and wheeler. if the option was for odorizzi or grandal, i'd take grandal.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

4 hours ago, Tank said:

I agree. Unless Cole wants 5 years/900 million, I don’t think he should be viewed as too expensive.

yeah l sincerely doubt any team will offer Cole enough money to a point that Arte couldn't match, if he's truly serious about winning...

[Angelsjunky]

It is too easy to forget in all this "preseason Hot Stove" that none of these players are available in a vacuum. In theory, there are 29 other teams to compete against. Now realistically with a player like Cole, there are only a few...the Yankees, Dodgers, maybe one or two others. But still, my point being that we all like to dream up crazy offseason packages as if we're a kid with $10 to spend in a candy store.

Cole might even be more likely than someone like Wheeler, who due to likely costing "only" $18-20M a year, will have many more suitors -- maybe as many as a dozen.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Anyhow, back to the original topic, I posted this in another thread but is even more relevant here:

The point being, if Eppler balks at Cole's asking price, or Cole opts to go somewhere else, then he moves on to Strasburg. He the same, then Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, etc. If he doesn't get one of those five, he might get desperate and offer a big package to the Mets for Syndergaard. If that doesn't happen, he's left justifying Ohtani as "its like signing an ace," and going for one fo the second tier starters as the top signing...and then his job is seriously on the line.

So I expect the Angels to go hard after one of Cole or Strasburg, and if they don't get one, probably over-pay for one of Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu. I'd say there's an 80%+ chance that one of those five will be headlining the Angels rotation in 2020.

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think the dogs will make a shorter term offer with a high aav like 5/200 and it won't be enough

The Yanks I just don't know.  They could make a run but the Angels will be close enough where he would choose them because I truly believe he's serious about wanting to play out west for what will amount to the remainder of his career.  

I don't think SD is gonna go after him.  I think they blew their load on Machado.  They're gonna wait for their young pitching (and other prospects) now.  

I still think the CWS are gonna start throwing some money around this year.  If there's a team we have to worry about throwing a stupid offer at Cole, it's them.  They've got a good young offense and Giolito at the top of their rotation already and their payroll is a little over 50m.  They could actually afford Cole and Rendon plus others without a problem.  

I think SD will go for it, based on their owners' recent comments, but I think they are more likely to sign Strasburg, who is from SD.  We'll see.

[jordan]

Those other teams don’t have Trout or Ohtani. Cole will be an Angel. 

[eligrba]

21 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

I think Cole is a tremendous talent. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. I just find it odd that he would openly tell the media that he wants to play on the west coast while he was participating in a serious championship run with the Astros. I just think he should’ve waited until after the playoffs were over before talking about his desired location. It’s kinda disrespectful to the Astros fan base IMHO. 

F*ck the Astros and their fan base.

With all due respect....