What If Cole Is Too Expensive?

[Pancake Bear]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, back to the original topic, I posted this in another thread but is even more relevant here:

The point being, if Eppler balks at Cole's asking price, or Cole opts to go somewhere else, then he moves on to Strasburg. He the same, then Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, etc. If he doesn't get one of those five, he might get desperate and offer a big package to the Mets for Syndergaard. If that doesn't happen, he's left justifying Ohtani as "its like signing an ace," and going for one fo the second tier starters as the top signing...and then his job is seriously on the line.

So I expect the Angels to go hard after one of Cole or Strasburg, and if they don't get one, probably over-pay for one of Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu. I'd say there's an 80%+ chance that one of those five will be headlining the Angels rotation in 2020.

We’ve talked a bit around here about getting at least two starters. Thing is, starting pitchers tend to have a high risk, especially over long term contracts. One way to avoid that is through the trade market, but that becomes expensive in prospect currency. So that really isn’t a better option than throwing a five year contract at someone like Wheeler. 

I guess what I’m saying is if their target is Cole, I’m dubious that Eppler gives out two (or more) contracts of 5 (or more in the case of Cole) years to a free agent SP. 

It’s risky enough going all in on a long term deal at SP, but doing it multiple times the same offseason could really jack up the franchise long term if both contracts underwhelm. 

It makes me wonder if we’ll pursue a trade or a shorter term option after Cole - assuming he’s our top target.

[kevinb]

7 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

We’ve talked a bit around here about getting at least two starters. Thing is, starting pitchers tend to have a high risk, especially over long term contracts. One way to avoid that is through the trade market, but that becomes expensive in prospect currency. So that really isn’t a better option than throwing a five year contract at someone like Wheeler. 

I guess what I’m saying is if their target is Cole, I’m dubious that Eppler gives out two (or more) contracts of 5 (or more in the case of Cole) years to a free agent SP. 

It’s risky enough going all in on a long term deal at SP, but doing it multiple times the same offseason could really jack up the franchise long term if both contracts underwhelm. 

It makes me wonder if we’ll pursue a trade or a shorter term option after Cole - assuming he’s our top target.

All contracts are risky. It's just how sports work, it's how business works. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. 

[Dick B Back]

14 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. 

Sincerely,

Steve Finley

[Angel Oracle]

16 minutes ago, Dick B Back said:

Sincerely,

Steve Finley and GMJHGH

FIFY

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

All contracts are risky. It's just how sports work, it's how business works. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. 

Sure, but it should also be noted that MLB owners continue to build massive wealth owning major league teams even if they have to pay out on contracts that “don’t work out.”

So in the grand scheme of owning a team, in sum all the contracts work out.

The risk in signing Cole (Or some other massive deal) is really contained to wins and losses, not the financial health if the franchise.

[VariousCrap]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Odorizzi has bust written all over him.  There, I said it.  

 

Have you watched him pitch?  He is a solid middle of the rotation guy.

[VariousCrap]

16 hours ago, Glen said:

 

I know what Fletcher said about teams being much more analytical with regards to free agents, but with the Yankees and Dodgers most likely in on Cole I can't see him going for less than $35 million a year.  Unless he voluntarily takes less to be witha team.

Dodgers won't be in on him.  They don't need him.  They have too many young solid starters they can use instead.  At the most, they might bring Ryu back, but even that isn't really needed.

[VariousCrap]

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, back to the original topic, I posted this in another thread but is even more relevant here:

The point being, if Eppler balks at Cole's asking price, or Cole opts to go somewhere else, then he moves on to Strasburg. He the same, then Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, etc. If he doesn't get one of those five, he might get desperate and offer a big package to the Mets for Syndergaard. If that doesn't happen, he's left justifying Ohtani as "its like signing an ace," and going for one fo the second tier starters as the top signing...and then his job is seriously on the line.

So I expect the Angels to go hard after one of Cole or Strasburg, and if they don't get one, probably over-pay for one of Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu. I'd say there's an 80%+ chance that one of those five will be headlining the Angels rotation in 2020.

 

This chart is awesome. Good job.

[tdawg87]

13 hours ago, ukyah said:

thank you! i've been sitting here every time his name is mentioned saying, "what am i missing?"

outside of strasburg, who's not a real FA, wheeler is the second best apple in the bushel. i'd love for the angels to sign cole and wheeler. if the option was for odorizzi or grandal, i'd take grandal.

Could you guys explain why you think he has "bust" written all over him?

He's a number 3 pitcher. He's going to get paid like a number 3 pitcher. 3/48 with a team option.

He's actually been ridiculously consistent, including his peripherals. I don't think anyone expects him to replicate his 2019, but his 2015-2017 numbers are consistent as hell and would look really nice in the middle of our rotation.

[VariousCrap]

51 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Could you guys explain why you think he has "bust" written all over him?

He's a number 3 pitcher. He's going to get paid like a number 3 pitcher. 3/48 with a team option.

He's actually been ridiculously consistent, including his peripherals. I don't think anyone expects him to replicate his 2019, but his 2015-2017 numbers are consistent as hell and would look really nice in the middle of our rotation.

You are 100% correct.  Odorizzi is a solid mid-rotation arm. 

If my dream scenario for the off-season happened, the rotation could potentially be: Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Canning and Heaney.

For my second scenario the rotation could be:  Ohtani, Wheeler, Odorzzi, Hamels, Canning and Heaney.

Either way, Odorizzi is right where he should be.  In the middle.

Edited October 25, 2019 by VariousCrap

[Mark68]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

FIFY

And Josh "Nose Candy" Hamilton

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Could you guys explain why you think he has "bust" written all over him?

He's a number 3 pitcher. He's going to get paid like a number 3 pitcher. 3/48 with a team option.

He's actually been ridiculously consistent, including his peripherals. I don't think anyone expects him to replicate his 2019, but his 2015-2017 numbers are consistent as hell and would look really nice in the middle of our rotation.

Yep.  mine is just a gut feeling but based on some trends I don't like.  

He's already been limited exposure wise and in 17 starts for the second half of 2019 he had a 4.77 era.  

He's not the middle of the rotation arm that some think in my opinion.  Especially at 3/48.  At 3/30 or so?  maybe.  He's a nibbler and people aren't going to like it.  There are a bunch of others I'd rather have because I think their cost will be less and performance about the same.  

 

[tdawg87]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Yep.  mine is just a gut feeling but based on some trends I don't like.  

He's already been limited exposure wise and in 17 starts for the second half of 2019 he had a 4.77 era.  

He's not the middle of the rotation arm that some think in my opinion.  Especially at 3/48.  At 3/30 or so?  maybe.  He's a nibbler and people aren't going to like it.  There are a bunch of others I'd rather have because I think their cost will be less and performance about the same.  

 

I mean there are about 2-3 other guys I'd rather have but I think he ends up being a cheaper option than Wheeler or Bumgarner or even Hamels. IMO, if we want a decent catcher then Odorizzi is a more realistic option.

But the idea of getting Cole and Wheeler makes me want to be in my bunk.

[kevinb]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Sure, but it should also be noted that MLB owners continue to build massive wealth owning major league teams even if they have to pay out on contracts that “don’t work out.”

So in the grand scheme of owning a team, in sum all the contracts work out.

The risk in signing Cole (Or some other massive deal) is really contained to wins and losses, not the financial health if the franchise.

You can say that. But eventually there comes a tipping point and the market shifts. You as an owner still have to make the best financial move for your ball club going forward. You never want to be losing money no matter what business you are in. It would be like saying well houses keep going up might as well a pool in the back yard I will eventually end up making a profit... ya maybe or maybe the market shifts and ... you get my drift... Either way. Sign Cole. It's not my money.

[kevinb]

3 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

Dodgers won't be in on him.  They don't need him.  They have too many young solid starters they can use instead.  At the most, they might bring Ryu back, but even that isn't really needed.

That isn't needed? They lost in the playoffs to a team with better pitching. If you are saying teams don't need legit aces who are young than you are just being bias towards the Angels. 

[Jay]

it's more wishful thinking than 'bias'

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

20 hours ago, TheUPSman said:

We're gonna have to overpay for Cole. The Yankees all but flat out said they're perusing Cole. The price just went up and my initial thought that it'd take 7 and 245 probably isn't enough now. It all comes down to Arte and what he's comfortable with not Eppler. It might be tight this year spending 35 + mil a year for Cole and whatever else it takes for, say, Wheeler and Grandal, but Cozart comes off the books next year and Pujols 2021. 

Simmons also next year, and  Calhoun this year. If we don't sign Cole it won't be because of money. It will be because he just didn't want to be an Angel...

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Simmons also next year, and  Calhoun this year. If we don't sign Cole it won't be because of money. It will be because he just didn't want to be an Angel...

Or because Arte wouldn’t sign off on a seven year deal. 

[Tank]

4 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

Dodgers won't be in on him.  They don't need him.  They have too many young solid starters they can use instead.  At the most, they might bring Ryu back, but even that isn't really needed.

dodgers also have carrot top's younger brother that can start.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Or because Arte wouldn’t sign off on a seven year deal. 

That would be Facking stupid.

[Brandon]

On 10/24/2019 at 3:32 PM, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Arte should match every offer for Cole + 5%, must sign Cole.

Would you be content if the Angels ended up signing Wheeler, Ordorizzi and Grandal instead of Cole? NO!

Would you be content if the Angels ended up signing Wheeler, Ordorizzi, Hamels and a catcher like Maldonado?

NO!

Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal would be acceptable to me..

Strasburg, and Cole would be acceptable to me.

Me, me , me.

The good ol arm chair messageboard do as I say post.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Or because Arte wouldn’t sign off on a seven year deal. 

not a problem

[Pancake Bear]

27 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

not a problem

I think so, too. I’m just thinking about ways the deal might get blown. Arte being afraid of getting hamstrung by a risky contract is one way. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

I think so, too. I’m just thinking about ways the deal might get blown. Arte being afraid of getting hamstrung by a risky contract is one way. 

Can't be afraid forever. No risk, no reward and the Angels are in desperate need of big reward...

[Docwaukee]

the way handles the 7th year or maybe even the 5th or 6th year of a Cole deal is potentially the same as how he's handled the Albert deal. That's the reality we all have to be willing to accept which is that the back loaded money to Cole makes it likely the Angels just won't spend money to offset any mistake years in that contract come 2025 or 2026.  

The bigger mistake would be to spend prospect currency right away on top of getting Cole.  I would hedge my bets a little at least till the deadline.