What is your realistic expectations for this offseason & your wishlist?

[SigBaby]

12 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think the key question is - will Arte spend enough that he'll go over the luxury tax limit for a year or two, or does he treat the LT limit as a "hard" cap?

If he treats it as a hard cap, then assuming Calhoun's option is declined, we probably have up to 50mil or so to spend, after arbitration projections.

*IF* we sign Cole, who will likely cost 35 mil/year, that means one more significant addition - a 2nd SP (Ryu, Wheeler, etc) or someone like Grandal?  

Signing Cole, as exciting as it would be, likely does not leave a ton of money left to address other areas.  So the question is - would we rather sign Cole + a 2nd SP or someone like Grandal, or instead of Cole, sign 3 SPs like Ryu, Wheeler, Odorizzi, OR 2 SPs + Grandal.

 

This team so desperately needs depth. The disparity between our depth and that of any playoff team is absurd, guys like Suarez, Sandoval, Thaiss, Hermosillo, Peters have no business being the next man up on a winning team, but that is where this team is at. For that reason I'm in favor for whatever offseason plan can help us fill out our rotation and have Barria and Canning as depth pieces instead of fixtures out of the gate. 

[arch stanton]

I don't have the time or inclination to parse details that I have no control over. I just hope he gets better pitchers and shores up the holes in the lineup

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

This team so desperately needs depth. The disparity between our depth and that of any playoff team is absurd, guys like Suarez, Sandoval, Thaiss, Hermosillo, Peters have no business being the next man up on a winning team, but that is where this team is at. For that reason I'm in favor for whatever offseason plan can help us fill out our rotation and have Barria and Canning as depth pieces instead of fixtures out of the gate. 

Right, I hear you.  That's my hesitation with Cole.  This team obviously needs someone like Cole (I mean who doesn't?), but given his projected cost, it's hard to see how we can build a competitor with how much he costs.  Again, assuming we have roughly up to 50mil to spend, that basically limits us to Cole + one other significant player.  If that is the route we go, I would actually probably rather add someone like Grandal over a 2nd SP, because Grandal is fairly consistently a 4 WAR catcher, and we have absolutely zero catching talent in our minor league system.  While our SP is dreadful too, at least we have some guys coming up in the pipeline that are interesting, even if they are a few years away (Soriano, Rodriguez, Hernandez, Bradish, etc).

[Pancake Bear]

28 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think the key question is - will Arte spend enough that he'll go over the luxury tax limit for a year or two, or does he treat the LT limit as a "hard" cap?

If he treats it as a hard cap, then assuming Calhoun's option is declined, we probably have up to 50mil or so to spend, after arbitration projections.

*IF* we sign Cole, who will likely cost 35 mil/year, that means one more significant addition - a 2nd SP (Ryu, Wheeler, etc) or someone like Grandal?  

Signing Cole, as exciting as it would be, likely does not leave a ton of money left to address other areas.  So the question is - would we rather sign Cole + a 2nd SP or someone like Grandal, or instead of Cole, sign 3 SPs like Ryu, Wheeler, Odorizzi, OR 2 SPs + Grandal.

 

Forget about the Luxury Tax. Per Fletcher, that is an arbitrary point as far as the team's considerations. They've spent less because they made a distinct decision to limit payroll. It's possible that circumstances have changed and Arte will expand payroll. We don't know yet. Either way, the Luxury Tax is not meaningful until we're explicitly told it is. The idea that it was came up from fan belief, not from the team.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Forget about the Luxury Tax. Per Fletcher, that is an arbitrary point as far as the team's considerations. They've spent less because they made a distinct decision to limit payroll. It's possible that circumstances have changed and Arte will expand payroll. We don't know yet. Either way, the Luxury Tax is not meaningful until we're explicitly told it is. The idea that it was came up from fan belief, not from the team.

Well, there are a number of reasons why we do see all sorts of teams avoid it - there are various penalties tied to draft picks, international money, etc.

But that said, others do go over it, so if Arte is so willing, that's awesome.  I suppose I have to see it to believe it, but if he's really at a "F it, I'll spend whatever to go for it" moment, then that's awesome - I'll gladly take that, as it means we can add a ton of talent.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Well, there are a number of reasons why we do see all sorts of teams avoid it - there are various penalties tied to draft picks, international money, etc.

But that said, others do go over it, so if Arte is so willing, that's awesome.  I suppose I have to see it to believe it, but if he's really at a "F it, I'll spend whatever to go for it" moment, then that's awesome - I'll gladly take that, as it means we can add a ton of talent.

Going over it slightly is relatively insignificant in terms of penalties in the short term, and I don't expect that if they did go over it that they would stay over it multiple years. I doubt they do go over it at all, tbh. I think 40-45mil is probably the max they'll spend this offseason. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Going over it slightly is relatively insignificant in terms of penalties in the short term, and I don't expect that if they did go over it that they would stay over it multiple years. I doubt they do go over it at all, tbh. I think 40-45mil is probably the max they'll spend this offseason. 

Right - that is my guess, too.  If they sign guys to several long-term deals, it'll be hard to wiggle their way back under the luxury tax, especially with Ohtani's arbitration clock set to begin in 2021.  I think 40-45 is a more likely target than anything above 50.

[Tank]

6 hours ago, greginpsca said:

i am warming up to the idea of signing Jason Castro instead of Grandahl. Half the price, and a better hitter than most catchers we have had recently.

boy, talk about a low bar...

[ten ocho recon scout]

Im not totally on the Cole bandwagon, only because it seems like a longshot. (We CAN afford him, supposedly hed like to be here.... but I think everyone will be after him, so Im prepping myself for not getting him).

His money and pitcher risk is something to be wary of.

That said..... maaaan. Its been so long since weve had a dominant arm. A guy like him would be a huge boost. Say him, new effective pitcher number 2 and ohtani being healthy.... team could be fun again very quickly.

[Lou]

52 minutes ago, Tank said:

boy, talk about a low bar...

you've obviously forgotten about the Stassi Heist.

that's what I'm calling it, the Stassi Heist.

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

you've obviously forgotten about the Stassi Heist.

that's what I'm calling it, the Stassi Heist.

that sounds like an abc after-school special.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

that sounds like an abc after-school special.

if that works for you

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, SigBaby said:

I know it is an unpopular opinion, but maybe we should stay away from the big money free agents and instead attempt to acquire controllable talent through trades. It's pretty clear at this point that dishing out big money in free agency is generally a bad idea, especially for a team like the Angels that 1) has been spurned by it multiple occasions in recent memory and 2) only really has money to acquire Cole + maybe 1 and then have very little financial flexibility in the following season. In my opinion free agency can be very helpful, but it should be used as a way to supplement the talent already present, not as a means of remaking a team.

First let Calhoun go and hand Adell the job in RF. If he falters, give Marsh a shot.

In free agency I would go after short term deals on productive vets in free agency:

One of Chirinos, Wieters, Martin, Gomes to split time with Smith at catcher

One of Howie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro to provide us with added depth around the infield. I really like the idea of having Rengifo in AAA as insurance and Fletcher/La Stella/ One of these guys providing flexibility at nearly every infield position

Sign one or 2 of Kyle Gibson, Hamels, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Wacha

Trade for one of Bundy, Caleb Smith, Kyle Freeland, Joe Musgrove - controllable guys who can fit in as reliable middle of the rotation starters, have shown upside, and won't cost the farm. 

And of course the usual waiver claims and minor league deals to bolster the pen

the only way this team is going to win any time soon is to address the top of the rotation.  

there are three ways to do that

internally - they have no one coming any time soon who fits that bill

trades - that have an improving farm but most of their farm talent is at A ball or below.  What's above that level is one guy who's virtually untouchable and basically one more guy who could headline a deal.  A guy (Marsh) who likely could become an elite prospect this year and actually find a position on this team considering that we are already losing one OFer and need a backup/depth to cover another who we're hoping can rebound from an injury plagued year.   Another thing.  Trading for an ace means you know they're an ace which means they likely have less control and are starting to get expensive.  Teams don't trade Blake Snell when they have 5 years of control.  They don't trade good young pitchers unless they haven't proven they're good yet, and they don't do it for prospects.  They do it for a major league player that's gonna help them win now.  They are more likely to Noah Syndergaard who's probably gonna make 10 mil in arb this year, and 17 mil next year.  And then you have to extend him at 30 mil per.  

free agency - once in a blue moon does a true ace become available but you'll have to pay for it.  Teams usually have to trade for one because they don't end up free agents.  Cole is a bit of a unicorn in that regard.  There are likely some real stinkers that will come from this FA class.  The odds are in favor of that but Cole is as good of a bet as their is.  

If I had to choose between signing Cole and only spending another 10 mil or so on the rest of the team's needs, I think I would choose that than the scenario you've posted.  Not because i don't think something like that is possible or even reasonable, but I like the idea of Cole being an ace for the 4+ years after 2020 that gives the team that true ace for a while that can take the ball every 5th day.  Something this team has been missing for quite some time.   

 

[Tank]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

if that works for you

"madison stassi was a 9th grader at central high, faced with the difficult decision of going to the mall with her friends to shoplift some earrings from forever 21 or stay home and do her geography homework. find out what happens this week on the abc afterschool special."

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Tank said:

"madison stassi was a 9th grader at central high, faced with the difficult decision of going to the mall with her friends to shoplift some earrings from forever 21 or stay home and do her geography homework. find out what happens this week on the abc afterschool special."

great, now I want to watch The Stassi Heist 

[VariousCrap]

3 hours ago, SigBaby said:

I know it is an unpopular opinion, but maybe we should stay away from the big money free agents and instead attempt to acquire controllable talent through trades. 

 

Nope.

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Nope.

Eppler going after Cole/Strasbourg confirmed. 

[redoctober2002]

3 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

That would be a great way to waste another year for no apparent reason. 

Best case, that team would be awful and we’d get a high draft pick. Most likely, it would be meh, and we’d be nowhere close to competing or a good pick with Trout another year closer to decline. 

Completely agree. It's not very often you get a guy at Cole's level in free agency, the closest comparable is probably Scherzer back in 2015. The past 4 years Eppler has been building the farm and signing stop gaps, eventually risks have to be taken and the front office needs to go into win now mode while the best player in baseball is in his prime.

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

You wish you were a muscular dude but you're actually a chick whose elbow is sore from jerking off dudes?

Its 2019

I dont brand them as dudes, but more how they identify.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Tank said:

"madison stassi was a 9th grader at central high, faced with the difficult decision of going to the mall with her friends to shoplift some earrings from forever 21 or stay home and do her geography homework. find out what happens this week on the abc afterschool special."

Co starring a young kirk cameron, who is the bad kid because he wears a vietnam era field jacket and smokes.

[Lou]

"vietnam era field jacket" was hilarious

[Warfarin]

Assuming Arte has roughly 50mil of cash (not LT space, and assuming Calhoun's option is declined) to spend and is not averse to going over the LT limit, then I'd consider this:

1.  Sign Cole (7/210?), start off the contract at 22-25mil for the first year and go up from there

2.  Sign Wheeler (4/70?), start off the contract at 12-14mil and go up from there

3.  Sign Grandal (3/45), start off at 11-12mil and go up from there

4.  Release Pujols.  It is time to move on and try other options.  

So - that's roughly 45-51mil of salary added.

 

Lineup:  LaStella 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Grandal C, Goodwin (eventually Adell) RF, Fletcher 2B, Thaiss/Ward 1B, Simba SS

Bench:  Smith C, Rengifo IF, Thaiss/Ward 1B/3B (whoever isn't playing), Hermosillo OF (eventually Goodwin shifts here when Adell takes over RF)

SP:  Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, then some combo of Sandoval, Suarez, Pena, Barria, etc

BP:  Robles, Buttrey, Middleton, Ramirez, Bedrosian, Cole, other optionable relievers

Not on part with the AL's elite teams (Yankees, Astros), but I do think that should be a very competitive team that is at least in the WC mix, which is a huge step up from this year.

[Jay]

6 hours ago, Lou said:

"vietnam era field jacket" was hilarious

yes but odd that you guys are up at 2 am posting on this board.

 

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Jay said:

yes but odd that you guys are up at 2 am posting on this board.

 

They're vampires.

[Tank]

52 minutes ago, Jay said:

yes but odd that you guys are up at 2 am posting on this board.

 

it's when we do our best work

 

 

just like dipoto.