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SigBaby

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Everything posted by SigBaby

  1. I built a model to project pitching wOBA for figuring out who to pick in fantasy baseball last year (pitching is more difficult to project than hitting for fantasy baseball). The model outperforms simply using the previous years' xwOBA to project the current season. Just figured I'd share it here in case anyone is interested. It did pretty well for me last year - identified Justin Steele and Kyle Bradish for me and I went 17-4-2 and won the championship (subtle brag). We'll see how it does this year. As far as pitchers it suggests the Angels might benefit in targeting, Domingo German is an interesting projection and is pretty much the only guy in the top 30 projected starters who would be reasonable to acquire (he seems to have personal issues, but who doesn't). Make of it what you will woba_23_predictions.csv
  2. Jon Gray would be awesome. I have a feeling he would be filthy outside of Coors
  3. So you believe there is no other viable way to sufficiently improve the rotation other than paying the most expensive player on the market coming off a career year?
  4. Except that Nationals team was already stacked without Scherzer. We are a borderline playoff team with Cole and cannot afford to miss playoffs while putting our future spending into one basket. I like Cole and I anticipate him being a top pitcher at least for the next couple seasons, but how can people be so quick to forget how much the Pujols contract has hindered this team? Say for some reason (injury or reduced effectiveness) Cole doesn't pan, this team will be 100% sunk for the foreseeable future and that's a lot to bet on one player.
  5. This team so desperately needs depth. The disparity between our depth and that of any playoff team is absurd, guys like Suarez, Sandoval, Thaiss, Hermosillo, Peters have no business being the next man up on a winning team, but that is where this team is at. For that reason I'm in favor for whatever offseason plan can help us fill out our rotation and have Barria and Canning as depth pieces instead of fixtures out of the gate.
  6. All I'm saying is look at the direction the smarter teams are taking in regards to spending big in free agency. There are better, more sustainable ways to win than throwing money at free agents. Granted Cole is as close as you can get to a flawless FA with his age, dominance, and lack of red flags but if landing him or Strasburg is our only chance to win, then we've got much bigger problems than one free agent can fix.
  7. I know it is an unpopular opinion, but maybe we should stay away from the big money free agents and instead attempt to acquire controllable talent through trades. It's pretty clear at this point that dishing out big money in free agency is generally a bad idea, especially for a team like the Angels that 1) has been spurned by it multiple occasions in recent memory and 2) only really has money to acquire Cole + maybe 1 and then have very little financial flexibility in the following season. In my opinion free agency can be very helpful, but it should be used as a way to supplement the talent already present, not as a means of remaking a team. First let Calhoun go and hand Adell the job in RF. If he falters, give Marsh a shot. In free agency I would go after short term deals on productive vets in free agency: One of Chirinos, Wieters, Martin, Gomes to split time with Smith at catcher One of Howie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro to provide us with added depth around the infield. I really like the idea of having Rengifo in AAA as insurance and Fletcher/La Stella/ One of these guys providing flexibility at nearly every infield position Sign one or 2 of Kyle Gibson, Hamels, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Wacha Trade for one of Bundy, Caleb Smith, Kyle Freeland, Joe Musgrove - controllable guys who can fit in as reliable middle of the rotation starters, have shown upside, and won't cost the farm. And of course the usual waiver claims and minor league deals to bolster the pen
  8. I think Rendon should be the team's main target. He would instantly transform us from a mediocre offense into a dangerous one. Think about this 1-5: Fletcher, Rendon, Trout, Ohtani, Upton. That is possibly the best in baseball. Cole will not transform this rotation on his own. I'd rather play to our strength (lineup) and plug the holes in the rotation with cheaper guys like Kyle Gibson, Wacha, Hamels, Gio Gonzalez. I get that the Harvey/ Cahill plug ins didn't turn out great, but I think that is still a sound free agency strategy, we just wiffed on the player evaluation. Take advantage of the market being down on the veteran guys who can still produce and continue to plug until the rotation has enough farm grown guys to sustain itself, because this rotation needs at least 3 offseason additions.
  9. Buttrey tipping his pitches or just overworked? He's been getting hit harder lately
  10. Barria's looking like a solid rotation piece. Imagine if we could somehow net a top of the rotation starter: Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Shoemaker, #1 starter would be a really solid rotation. Until the injuries hit of course
  11. Didn't realize he was an above average defender. If that's the case he could definitely make a very good utility infielder maybe along the lines of Brock Holt.
  12. I know a lot of people here are high on Fletcher, but I don't really understand why other than him hitting very well in the minors this year. I'd be surprised if he turned out to be anything more than a Jonny Giavotella type
  13. Yup, Skaggs looks promising but he has yet to prove he can even pitch a full season. Could be a similar situation to when we passed on trading Bedrosian during his best season when the reliever trade market was ridiculous. Not saying I would actively shop him, but it shouldn't be out of the question.
  14. I still like this idea. Only thing is I couldn't really name our best reliever. Alvarez? Maybe Parker?
  15. Knowing what we know now, would you have given Arrieta the contract he received from the Phillies (3 year 75 million)? Not the ace he once was but definitely would be the best, most reliable starter in our rotation this season.
  16. Got to believe we will make a big splash at the deadline for a top of the rotation starter if things continue like this. I'm talking Archer or Michael Fulmer
  17. Our lineup reminds me of what the Rangers had in their World Series years. The one that was seemingly guaranteed to walk off against our bullpen if they were down by 4 or less in the 9th.
  18. Parker is the least of my worries, as he's posted solid numbers in the past he's just been overlooked. The bullpen as a whole over performed last year and I fear it will regress minus the exceptional innings provided by Petit and to an extent Hernandez.
  19. I am definitely a fan of the Cozart signing, but I have a feeling he'd be another guy left on the outside looking in had we not snatched him up early. Can't complain though as his deal even as is could be a bargain.
  20. He just doesn't seem like a winning player. Talent is all there, but his attitude was horrible
  21. I've always been a big fan of Cobb's, but he's really just as much of a question mark health wise as the rest of our rotation. I get that Arrieta has red flags and I wouldn't pay him more than Darvish money, but I would be in favor of signing him to a similar deal with 4 or 5 years. We wouldn't be paying him to be the ace he was, we'd be paying him to be our best starter for this year and next. How much do you guys think he is worth if we're paying him soley based on future performance?
  22. I guess it depends on whether or not you think he'd substantially increase our chances of winning the world series. I would say yes, at least for this year and next. Maybe I'm just still on the Eagles superbowl high, but signing Arrieta seems similar to the Eagles trading for Ajayi. Their running game was already solid (about average) as is our current rotation but they took a chance on a talented player who people were down on. I'm almost certain the Eagles don't win the superbowl without Ajayi. Obviously money wasn't the issue in the Ajayi case, but if we want a world series, it's not going to happen with an average to slightly above average rotation.
  23. I understand he is over the hill. But that hill was literally being a top 5 starter in baseball. He would still be our best pitcher and would make this team a world series contender without harming the farm.
  24. I see a lot of people saying we should go after another starter along the lines of Odorrizi, Cashner, Lynn. While I have nothing against those options, I don't see how they actually improve the team beyond providing depth. Why not just get the guy who would actually likely be our best starter in a season where we are trying to not just make the postseason, but make noise. I understand he is not the ace he once was, but he would still likely be our best starter (Richards if healthy and Ohtani have equal potential, but key word is likely). This team has the pieces to make the playoffs, but if we are to make an addition to the rotation, why not add the guy who would give us the best chance to get over the hump between playoff team and WS contender. Will Arrieta be overpayed? Yes in terms of his later years likely lacking production, but why tread water with the other guys when we have a lot of key guys in their primes now and not getting any younger (Upton, Calhoun, Simmons, Richards, Cozart).
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