OC Register: Numbers dictate Angels manager Brad Ausmus has a quick hook on his starters

[AngelsWin.com]

HOUSTON — When Brad Ausmus walks to the mound to remove a starting pitcher who is just barely showing signs of trouble, he knows what many observers are thinking about the quick hooks that have become common these days.

“Traditionalists hate it,” the Angels manager said. “I came from baseball being played the traditional way, but I can’t dispute the facts.”

Numbers show that pitchers become less effective when facing a lineup for the third time. That means that a starting pitcher has 18 batters to face before the managerial hook looms, and 18 batters rarely gets a pitcher through even five innings.

In a time when all managers have short leashes on their starters, Ausmus has pulled his starters quicker than any of them.

Angels pitchers have faced 462 hitters the third time through the lineup, the fewest in the majors. On average, Angels pitchers – starters and primary pitchers pitching after openers – are facing just 3.5 hitters per game the third time through the lineup.

In that third pass through the lineup, Angels pitchers have allowed opponents to hit .324 with a .974 OPS, both the second-worst in baseball.

Those numbers are not what anyone wants to see, either in the quantity or quality.

“Absolutely, I’d prefer to have guys who can go (deep in the game),” Ausmus said. “You don’t worry so much about times through the order. You worry about pitch count.”

Ausmus said the pitchers have to establish themselves to earn the right to be trusted the third time through the lineup, and until they do, the hook will come quickly.

Griffin Canning, the Angels starter who has faced the most hitters in the third time through the lineup, said it is somewhat frustrating, but he understands.

“I think it’s gone that way for a reason,” said Canning, who on Thursday was shut down for the rest of the season with elbow inflammation. “I haven’t looked into it too much, but obviously some numbers are showing that.”

The idea that pitchers became less effective the third time through the lineup took hold around 2014, with the publication of “The Book: Playing the percentages in baseball,” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin.

Compiling years of data, they showed a clear pattern that pitchers consistently became less effective with each successive trip through the order.

Bringing the numbers up to date, from 2016 to 2019, pitchers have held hitters to a .246 average the first time through the order. That jumps to .260 the second time and .270 the third time.

The issue is not fatigue, but familiarity. The more often a major league hitter sees a pitcher, the better he’s going to be able to hit him.

Major league teams began acting on that data soon after. From 2000 to 2014, the number of times a pitcher faced a hitter for the third time in a game remained fairly steady, but it declined by 9.5 percent in 2015. It has dropped every year since.

Overall, pitchers faced 23 percent fewer hitters the third time through order in 2018 than they did in 2014.

Perhaps the bottom is near, though. Since last season there’s been just a 2 percent decline in pitchers facing hitters a third time. Theoretically, at some point, the quick hooks on starters become counterproductive because there aren’t enough quality relievers to pick up those innings.

Ausmus concedes that it’s made managing a pitching staff more difficult because he’s using more relievers, while also trying to manage their workloads.

It was different when he managed the Detroit Tigers from 2014-17. Over that span, his pitchers faced the sixth most hitters in the majors the third time through the order.

“When I was managing the Tigers, I was more reacting to what was happening on the field, as opposed to trying to be proactive,” Ausmus said. “A lot of times if you’re reacting, it’s too late. That’s probably relatively new to baseball. For 100 years you were always reactive as opposed to proactive.”

Of course, there was also a significant difference in the rotations Ausmus had in Detroit compared to what he has with the Angels. He had veteran pitchers such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and David Price during his Tigers years.

“If you have an elite starter,” Ausmus said, “it’s a different story.”

The Angels’ current rotation has only one pitcher – Andrew Heaney – who has been through a full season as a starter.

So how does a young pitcher ever learn to handle a lineup the third time through if he doesn’t get the chance?

“There are going to be times when there is enough separation in the score where the guy continues to go through, where I’d allow him to continue pitching because you feel like you have some margin for error,” Ausmus said.

In the past week, Canning got through 26 hitters and Heaney lasted 28. Both were allowed to go deeper because they were pitching well and had a lead of at least three runs.

It’s also reasonable to expect the leash might soon get longer for some young pitchers now that the Angels have dropped out of playoff contention, allowing the focus to shift toward developing the skill of getting through a lineup.

“It definitely is tough facing those guys different times,” Canning said. “They are so good at making adjustments from their first two at-bats. It’s difficult for sure. You don’t want to overthink and try to do too much and then get yourself into trouble, but you need to realize when guys are starting to make adjustments and you maybe you need to. It’s a back and forth.”

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Canning this year has faced 72 hitters the third time, and they have hit a combined .275. That’s worse than the .167 and .264 averages he’s allowed in the first two times, but still within reason. Dillon Peters has held hitters to a .235 average in just 36 plate appearances the third time through, an encouraging sign in a small sample.

Other Angels starters have fared much worse. Heaney (.333), José Suarez (.419) and Jaime Barría (.417) have all been hit hard in samples of 26 to 52 plate appearances in the third time through the order.

Ausmus has had a short leash on all of them, which he said was the plan all along. The day Ausmus was hired last fall, one of the points he made in his introductory press conference was that he would be limiting pitchers’ exposure to the third time through the lineup.

He said he sat down with all the starters early in the season and explained to them how it was going to work, regardless of whether it was the ideal scenario for the pitchers or the manager.

“It’s not like I wanted it to go this way,” he said, “but I can’t dispute the facts.”

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[ScottT]

So is the arm mismanagement that these guys aren't throwing enough?

[Revad]

5 hours ago, ScottT said:

So is the arm mismanagement that these guys aren't throwing enough?

Theyre throwing as hard as they can as long as they can and hoping to last five or six innings.  Throwing more pitches with command would help, but command doesn't often go with the "as hard as they can" part.

[floplag]

For me, the math only works if you have the right personnel, which we clearly dont.
If that third time thru is a death sentence, we better have a bunch of relievers that can go more than one inning multiple days.  100 mph arms or guys with super spin rates arent built like that, its too much wear and tear.  He saving the starters by killing the bullpen.
He needs to at least let these guys try to get thru that third time it seems, what choice do we have?  If the starters dont blow it then pen is. 
Weve become slaves to the math at this point, and it isnt working.  

[mulwin444]

17 minutes ago, floplag said:

For me, the math only works if you have the right personnel, which we clearly dont.
If that third time thru is a death sentence, we better have a bunch of relievers that can go more than one inning multiple days.  100 mph arms or guys with super spin rates arent built like that, its too much wear and tear.  He saving the starters by killing the bullpen.
He needs to at least let these guys try to get thru that third time it seems, what choice do we have?  If the starters dont blow it then pen is. 
Weve become slaves to the math at this point, and it isnt working.  

Angels have become a "slave" to a young. inexperienced staff.  If Suarez, Barria, Peters, and Sandoval are taking 80 pitches to get through 4 innings, their next time through the line-up they are dealing with both familiarity and possibly fatigue which makes getting through 6 innings difficult.  Why are they at nearly 20 pitches an inning? Inexperience which often means poor command...it means getting two outs quickly, losing focus a bit, letting a runner or two on again (maybe a run), and then getting the third out...it means you are managing innings of young players conscious of that fact because their more experienced starters are injured (or dead).  The math, at this point, just allows them to attempt to maximize the results from what they have on the roster.

[floplag]

12 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Angels have become a "slave" to a young. inexperienced staff.  If Suarez, Barria, Peters, and Sandoval are taking 80 pitches to get through 4 innings, their next time through the line-up they are dealing with both familiarity and possibly fatigue which makes getting through 6 innings difficult.  Why are they at nearly 20 pitches an inning? Inexperience which often means poor command...it means getting two outs quickly, losing focus a bit, letting a runner or two on again (maybe a run), and then getting the third out...it means you are managing innings of young players conscious of that fact because their more experienced starters are injured (or dead).  The math, at this point, just allows them to attempt to maximize the results from what they have on the roster.

True, but they arent maximizing anything, thats obvious... or perhaps i should say the results simply are not there. 
Its become a damned if you do damned if you dont situation... we pull the starter so he doesnt get lit up, then the reliever does instead.  Most of the pulls seem to happen between innings, why not let the starter at least try.  If youth an inexperience are leading to distractions maybe it would help to let them fight thru it, or come in with more on the line.  
Bottom line what were doing isnt working, trying something different seems an obvious course of action regardless of the math.  We are so obsessed with the math that we have lost the ability to think logically.   The math say i do thus and so, but thus and so isnt working but if i dont follow the math im doing it wrong and .... blah blah blah.  A manager needs to manage, not follow the script.  If it isnt working, change it.

[Stradling]

The starters have to earn more innings.  Couple that with the offense giving them a decent lead and they get to pitch more innings. Remember that awful game where Suarez got in trouble against Houston and they came all the way back to beat us?   Yea Suarez simply didn’t deserve to throw more. He was facing the top of the order a third time in the 4th inning.  I think he’d allowed ten runners in 18 batters.  People here were pissed he was pulled because we lost.   Get guys out early and you earn the right to face more batters. 

[MacNasty]

Bad pitching requires a quicker hook.  I'd love to draw parallels here to bag on Ausmus (who I don't like) but it wouldn't be fair to him.  This is a cause and effect deal.

[mulwin444]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

True, but they arent maximizing anything, thats obvious... or perhaps i should say the results simply are not there. 
Its become a damned if you do damned if you dont situation... we pull the starter so he doesnt get lit up, then the reliever does instead.  Most of the pulls seem to happen between innings, why not let the starter at least try.  If youth an inexperience are leading to distractions maybe it would help to let them fight thru it, or come in with more on the line.  
Bottom line what were doing isnt working, trying something different seems an obvious course of action regardless of the math.  We are so obsessed with the math that we have lost the ability to think logically.   The math say i do thus and so, but thus and so isnt working but if i dont follow the math im doing it wrong and .... blah blah blah.  A manager needs to manage, not follow the script.  If it isnt working, change it.

Up until July 24th (game 2 of the Dodgers' series), the Angels were still a competitor for the 2nd WC spot so they managed their pitchers accordingly:

Game 1 against BALT: Jose Suarez pitched into the 5th innning, getting one out, but gave up back to back singles and was pulled on his 80th pitch, just the beginning of the third time through the order and tied 1-1

Game 2 against BALT: Nick Tropeano gave up 7 runs in the 1st two innings and was kept in there through 5 inning because the BP was exhausted from the previous night's game

Game 3 against BALT: Dillon Petters gave up 5 runs (2 earned) in 4 innings

Game 4 against BALT: Felix Pena gives up 4 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings...Orioles scored 3 of their 4 runs in the top of the 5th, after two were out and third time through the order

Game 1 against DET: Jaime Barria gives 3 runs (2 earned) in 5 innings...was pulled at 84 pitches at third time through the order

Game 2 against DET: Griffin Canning pitches 6 shutout innings at 93 pitches

Game 3 against DET: Suarez gives up 4 runs in 4.1 IP and is removed in 5th at 84 pitches leaving the base loaded, 1 out, third time through the order

Game 1 against Indians: Angels try Taylor Cole as opener, since he'd been successful before and he gives up 4 runs in 0.1 Inning, Dillon Petters pitches the rest of the game 7.2 Innings, only giving up 3 more runs on 104 pitches

Game 2 against Indians: Pena pitches 1.2 perfect innings before blowing out his knee

Game 3 against Indians: Jaime Barria gives up 3 runs in 3.2 Innings at 89 pitches and third time through the order

Game 1 against Reds: Angels try Taylor Cole again as opener, gives up 5 runs in 1st inning, Sandoval pitches 5 IP 2 ER at 96 pitches

Game 2 against Reds: Suarez gives up 6 runs in 5 innings at 91 pitches (gave up 3 runs in the 1st and 3 in the 4th)

Game 1 against Red Sox: Peters goes 6 innings 3 runs 97 pitches, Angels get shutout by Sale

Game 2 against Red Sox: Barria goes 5 IP gives 5 runs on 99 pitches

Game 3 against Red Sox:  Heaney, just coming off the IL, gives up 1 run in 3.1 IP at 74 pitches

Game 4 against Red Sox: Sandoval pitches 4.2 IP gives 4 runs on 95 pitches, left with the bases loaded in the 5th with Red Sox at third time through the line-up

Game 1 against Pirates: Suarez gives 6 runs (4 earned) in 3 IP on 69 pitches

Game 2 against Pirates: Canning gives up 4 runs in 4 innings and 80 pitches

Game 3 against Pirates: Peters goes 6 IP 2 ER on 94 pitches

Game 1 against While Sox: Heaney goes 7 IP 3 runs 90 pitches

Game 2 against White Sox: Sandoval goes 4.1 IP 3 Runs on 74 pitches, pulled in 5th after striking out the White Sox lead-off hitter in his third appearance

Game 3 against White Sox: Noe Ramirez opens, gives up 1 R in 1.1 IP, Suarez goes 4 IP 4 runs on 82 pitches

Game 4 against White Sox: Canning goes 7 IP 1 Run on 101 pitches

Game 1 against Rangers: Peters goes 4 IP 5 runs (4 earned) on 106 pitches, he loaded the bases with no outs in the 5th third time through the order before being pulled

Game 2 against Rangers: Heaney goes 8 IP 1 Run on 108 pitches

Game 3 against Rangers: Barria goes 5 IP 2 runs on 77 pitches, gave up both runs in the 5th, third time through the order.

Game 4 against Rangers: Sandoval goes 3.1 IP 4 runs on 8 hits 74 pitches

So, in the past 25 games, they've only used the opener three times, a lot of guys are averaging close to 20 pitches per inning, and seem to be getting into trouble third time through the order.  The pitcher are starting without an opener for the most part so Aumus and company seem to be 1) limiting the opener use and 2) letting them pitchout of trouble when they can with mixed results

Based on the starters available (Pena and Canning are no longer an option), I'm not sure how they could have handled them much better.

[Stradling]

Thanks @mulwin444 for doing the work.  This is why actually looking at what happening versus making judgements based on results is super important.  

[floplag]

1 hour ago, mulwin444 said:

Up until July 24th (game 2 of the Dodgers' series), the Angels were still a competitor for the 2nd WC spot so they managed their pitchers accordingly:

Game 1 against BALT: Jose Suarez pitched into the 5th innning, getting one out, but gave up back to back singles and was pulled on his 80th pitch, just the beginning of the third time through the order and tied 1-1

Game 2 against BALT: Nick Tropeano gave up 7 runs in the 1st two innings and was kept in there through 5 inning because the BP was exhausted from the previous night's game

Game 3 against BALT: Dillon Petters gave up 5 runs (2 earned) in 4 innings

Game 4 against BALT: Felix Pena gives up 4 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings...Orioles scored 3 of their 4 runs in the top of the 5th, after two were out and third time through the order

Game 1 against DET: Jaime Barria gives 3 runs (2 earned) in 5 innings...was pulled at 84 pitches at third time through the order

Game 2 against DET: Griffin Canning pitches 6 shutout innings at 93 pitches

Game 3 against DET: Suarez gives up 4 runs in 4.1 IP and is removed in 5th at 84 pitches leaving the base loaded, 1 out, third time through the order

Game 1 against Indians: Angels try Taylor Cole as opener, since he'd been successful before and he gives up 4 runs in 0.1 Inning, Dillon Petters pitches the rest of the game 7.2 Innings, only giving up 3 more runs on 104 pitches

Game 2 against Indians: Pena pitches 1.2 perfect innings before blowing out his knee

Game 3 against Indians: Jaime Barria gives up 3 runs in 3.2 Innings at 89 pitches and third time through the order

Game 1 against Reds: Angels try Taylor Cole again as opener, gives up 5 runs in 1st inning, Sandoval pitches 5 IP 2 ER at 96 pitches

Game 2 against Reds: Suarez gives up 6 runs in 5 innings at 91 pitches (gave up 3 runs in the 1st and 3 in the 4th)

Game 1 against Red Sox: Peters goes 6 innings 3 runs 97 pitches, Angels get shutout by Sale

Game 2 against Red Sox: Barria goes 5 IP gives 5 runs on 99 pitches

Game 3 against Red Sox:  Heaney, just coming off the IL, gives up 1 run in 3.1 IP at 74 pitches

Game 4 against Red Sox: Sandoval pitches 4.2 IP gives 4 runs on 95 pitches, left with the bases loaded in the 5th with Red Sox at third time through the line-up

Game 1 against Pirates: Suarez gives 6 runs (4 earned) in 3 IP on 69 pitches

Game 2 against Pirates: Canning gives up 4 runs in 4 innings and 80 pitches

Game 3 against Pirates: Peters goes 6 IP 2 ER on 94 pitches

Game 1 against While Sox: Heaney goes 7 IP 3 runs 90 pitches

Game 2 against White Sox: Sandoval goes 4.1 IP 3 Runs on 74 pitches, pulled in 5th after striking out the White Sox lead-off hitter in his third appearance

Game 3 against White Sox: Noe Ramirez opens, gives up 1 R in 1.1 IP, Suarez goes 4 IP 4 runs on 82 pitches

Game 4 against White Sox: Canning goes 7 IP 1 Run on 101 pitches

Game 1 against Rangers: Peters goes 4 IP 5 runs (4 earned) on 106 pitches, he loaded the bases with no outs in the 5th third time through the order before being pulled

Game 2 against Rangers: Heaney goes 8 IP 1 Run on 108 pitches

Game 3 against Rangers: Barria goes 5 IP 2 runs on 77 pitches, gave up both runs in the 5th, third time through the order.

Game 4 against Rangers: Sandoval goes 3.1 IP 4 runs on 8 hits 74 pitches

So, in the past 25 games, they've only used the opener three times, a lot of guys are averaging close to 20 pitches per inning, and seem to be getting into trouble third time through the order.  The pitcher are starting without an opener for the most part so Aumus and company seem to be 1) limiting the opener use and 2) letting them pitchout of trouble when they can with mixed results

Based on the starters available (Pena and Canning are no longer an option), I'm not sure how they could have handled them much better.

There are things there i would take issue with, but it isnt worth the argument at this point.  The obvious issue is just the starters, but it has affected the bullpen.  My comments were not limited to one or the other

[Jeff Fletcher]

The issue is the Angels don’t have enough good pitchers right now. Period. 

But that’s a pretty short article. 

[Glen]

25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The issue is the Angels don’t have enough good pitchers right now. Period. 

But that’s a pretty short article. 

I'd read it again.

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

In that third pass through the lineup, Angels pitchers have allowed opponents to hit .324 with a .974 OPS, both the second-worst in baseball.

 

3 hours ago, floplag said:

True, but they arent maximizing anything, thats obvious... or perhaps i should say the results simply are not there. 
Its become a damned if you do damned if you dont situation... we pull the starter so he doesnt get lit up, then the reliever does instead.  Most of the pulls seem to happen between innings, why not let the starter at least try.  If youth an inexperience are leading to distractions maybe it would help to let them fight thru it, or come in with more on the line.  
Bottom line what were doing isnt working, trying something different seems an obvious course of action regardless of the math.  We are so obsessed with the math that we have lost the ability to think logically.   The math say i do thus and so, but thus and so isnt working but if i dont follow the math im doing it wrong and .... blah blah blah.  A manager needs to manage, not follow the script.  If it isnt working, change it.

So in situations where Ausmus has actually thought his starter deserved a shot at the third time through the order his pitchers have gotten lit up to the tune of a .974 OPS, and you would suggest he aught to try it more often when he didn't think his starters deserved that chance?

[Angel Oracle]

47 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The issue is the Angels don’t have enough good pitchers right now. Period. 

But that’s a pretty short article. 

But will Arte/Billy act on it in the off-season?    Can they really afford another 1-2 years of taxing the bullpen?

Are ANY of these current starters capable of pitching even 150 innings in 2020?  

[Glen]

Anybody want to keep Suarez in longer right now?

[Stradling]

11 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

So in situations where Ausmus has actually thought his starter deserved a shot at the third time through the order his pitchers have gotten lit up to the tune of a .974 OPS, and you would suggest he aught to try it more often when he didn't think his starters deserved that chance?

Yea this is a great post. 

[Pancake Bear]

11 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

So in situations where Ausmus has actually thought his starter deserved a shot at the third time through the order his pitchers have gotten lit up to the tune of a .974 OPS, and you would suggest he aught to try it more often when he didn't think his starters deserved that chance?

 

13 hours ago, floplag said:

There are things there i would take issue with, but it isnt worth the argument at this point.  The obvious issue is just the starters, but it has affected the bullpen.  My comments were not limited to one or the other

Dude, just take the L. You have no clue what you’re talking about, you just want to pretend you’re smarter than the Angels management.

[mulwin444]

12 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

 

Dude, just take the L. You have no clue what you’re talking about, you just want to pretend you’re smarter than the Angels management.

[2112]

22 hours ago, Glen said:

Anybody want to keep Suarez in longer right now?

Suarez should be in AAA.  Angels need to have a bullpen game or ask if someone from the stands wants to pitch.

I'm worried about his mental health at this point.