Even IF we get Gerrit Cole...

[Dtwncbad]

If I want to be optimistic, I attempt to believe that Eppler has laid the foundation for acquiring a few starting pitchers in the offseason that were just not available right now because their team needs them for their shot at the postseason this year.  Hopefully there has been a foundation of progress established for those transactions after the WS is over.

I hope. 

[Mark68]

We could have 40% of Houston's current rotation (at least what it was before today). Miley's a free agent after this year.

[Justin]

I don't know what's going to happen. I do know that Mike Trout liked Eppler's plan, and the direction of the franchise, enough to sign a long extension.

I choose to believe Trout understands what's happening more than any of us do. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

we're all just winging it and bullshitting.

Like life.

I'm not winging anything, I'm actively Facking things up.

[Justin]

23 minutes ago, azmancini said:

Uh, Eppler lied? 

That's certainly not impossible. But this season has sucked... just like the last three before it. I want to have hope. 

[Second Base]

In the most basic terms, the Angels will have 50 million off the books, have catcher taken care of and RF with Adell. So they'll spend 30 of it on Cole, 15 of it on Wheeler/Miley/Odorizzi/Hamels/Ryu, and then 5 on a reliever.

[Pancake Bear]

People keep going on about how we're not competing yet. Let's be clear: 2020 is when the window starts to open. It has not been open since Eppler got here to anything more than sneaking into a WC spot if everything broke right. We had 85 wins in 2015. We've never done better than 80 since. 80-85 is probably where we end up this year also. 

2020 probably isn't the year where take the division. Houston is still really good and we're still waiting for players to develop. Ohtani, Canning, Suarez, should all be playing at a high level in 2021. We'll have one more year of farm system development to fill holes by then also. 

If you ever thought that somehow we had to do something big by this point in time or they were lying to us, you must have missed the last 1-2 seasons where they made it explicit that they were rebuilding on the fly.

This is the timeline. 2020, serious WC contender; 2021-2022, serious division contender and possibly serious challenger for the WS. This has always been the timeline. I get that you people are pissed that Eppler didn't do anything big today. I thought he might do something for next season, but prices were sky high. Evidence of that? The Yanks, Dodgers, and Red Sox didn't do much of anything. Only contender that did was the Astros, and they had to get creative and still spend quite a bit to do it.

The Reds and Mets spent on SP, but that's because they're run by crazy people who have no clue what they're doing. In order to get a steal like the Marlins, you've gotta have prospects that the other team likes better than you do. That's not exactly something Eppler can control. 

Look, if we get through this next offseason and Eppler is talking about Canning as our ace and goes out Harvhills it again, I'll be right there with you guys calling for Eppler to be dumped.  So far, though, I don't see any mistake he's made and I don't have any real problem with his inaction today considering what prices were reportedly like.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, TroutField said:

So Facking sick of hoping and praying for next year... 2014 was a long time ago 

The thing about this is, no matter what we do today and tomorrow, it doesnt change yesterday....

The bad years are already done. We will never get them back. So its probably more important to focus on the future, right?

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, azmancini said:

Uh, Eppler lied? 

About what? 

Trout, like any other player, has far more knowledge of whats going on than any of us.

In September of 2011, just before the playoffs started, I made a post on here that the Angels were after Pujols. Nobody believed it (for good reason). 

In December, not only did we sign him, but it came out of nowhere with the press. Nobody saw it coming.

The guy who told me was a lowly player, who wouldnt be with the team a few years later.

In short, front offices arent super secret squirrels. They constantly talk to their players, and the players constantly talk to each other.

I can also confirm we tried to trade for Cole in 2013, and again in 14...

Again, the plan today is no different than it was last winter. Everyone relax...

The plan may totally fail. May. it absolutely will if we deviate from it.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

In the most basic terms, the Angels will have 50 million off the books, have catcher taken care of and RF with Adell. So they'll spend 30 of it on Cole, 15 of it on Wheeler/Miley/Odorizzi/Hamels/Ryu, and then 5 on a reliever.

That is the ONLY way they will contend for a WC spot these next two seasons.   None of the current starters will truly be ready to be key contributers until 2022, if ever.

Ohtani should not exceed 100 innings in 2020 and 130 in 2021.

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ohtani should not exceed 100 innings in 2020 and 130 in 2021.

This is dumb. Please stop.

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

This is dumb. Please stop.

Why?   Isn’t it risky to pitch someone more than that much, when they have only pitched 50 innings in 2018 and none for this entire season?

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

That is the ONLY way they will contend for a WC spot these next two seasons.   None of the current starters will truly be ready to be key contributers until 2022, if ever.

Ohtani should not exceed 100 innings in 2020 and 130 in 2021.

They'll put him on the Japanese routine.  Most starting pitchers in Japan will start between 20-25 games a year and around 150 innings, whereas in the majors, it's typically 30-35 and 200+ if you you can go them, but 180 innings is more the norm nw, at least for good starting pitchers. 

So Ohtani will be the "Sunday Pitcher."  He'll pitch once a week.  If you figure the average starter if fully healthy makes 5 starts a month, Shohei will likely only make 4.  So you can figure on him making 24 starts next year, if he's completely healthy.  The Angels will keep him on a relatively strict 90-100 pitch limit, which will likely result in around 130 innings.  And of course, he'll likely get the normal days off before and after pitching

That's for the regular season.  Once the postseason comes, those rules go out the window.  He'll pitch when he's darn well good and ready, and he won't be getting days from hitting, except for when he's pitching.  

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Why?   Isn’t it risky to pitch someone more than that much, when they have only pitched 50 innings in 2018 and none for this entire season?

It's not like he hasn't thrown a single baseball since 2018. 100 innings is absolute worst-case scenario. He's not going to throw 200 innings but come on now. 160 seems like a more reasonable target. 

100 innings is just 20 starts if he's averaging 5 innings. That's just ridiculous. And it's even more ridiculous to assume he'll only throw 130 in 2021 due to the same injury. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

In the most basic terms, the Angels will have 50 million off the books, have catcher taken care of and RF with Adell. So they'll spend 30 of it on Cole, 15 of it on Wheeler/Miley/Odorizzi/Hamels/Ryu, and then 5 on a reliever.

I really don’t think Cole is getting 30M. He’s not that good. 

He’s also gonna have a draft pick attached, so that’s going to cut into his market. 

Corbin got 6/140 and he was a little younger than Cole will be. Cole is a little better but they are similar. I think 6/150 is realistic and I wouldn’t even be shocked if he’s got to settle for 5/125, given the way the industry is going. 

[Second Base]

11 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really don’t think Cole is getting 30M. He’s not that good. 

He’s also gonna have a draft pick attached, so that’s going to cut into his market. 

Corbin got 6/140 and he was a little younger than Cole will be. Cole is a little better but they are similar. I think 6/150 is realistic and I wouldn’t even be shocked if he’s got to settle for 5/125, given the way the industry is going. 

I had mentioned something very similar before, based on that reasoning, comps with Corbin and the plethora of available arms, but recently I've talked myself into the 30 million argument. 

If Cole costs 20 million a year, I think 20 teams in baseball would be in on him, so I wouldn't like the Angels chances. If Cole was making 25 million a year, I think the number of teams would drop to around 10. Again, still not loving those chances. But of those 10 teams, how many would have the financial clout and desperation to go to 30 million a year for Cole? I'm gonna guess 2-3. 

If we were talking comparative value, I'm with you, he's a 25 million dollar pitcher, max. But in a specific situation where his services are quite literally the difference between playoffs and no playoffs, I could see the Angels being forced to go 5 million higher per year. 

It isn't a financially sound decision to make more than once or twice on a roster, but it is a necessity in this case.

[Jeff Fletcher]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I had mentioned something very similar before, based on that reasoning, comps with Corbin and the plethora of available arms, but recently I've talked myself into the 30 million argument. 

If Cole costs 20 million a year, I think 20 teams in baseball would be in on him, so I wouldn't like the Angels chances. If Cole was making 25 million a year, I think the number of teams would drop to around 10. Again, still not loving those chances. But of those 10 teams, how many would have the financial clout and desperation to go to 30 million a year for Cole? I'm gonna guess 2-3. 

If we were talking comparative value, I'm with you, he's a 25 million dollar pitcher, max. But in a specific situation where his services are quite literally the difference between playoffs and no playoffs, I could see the Angels being forced to go 5 million higher per year. 

It isn't a financially sound decision to make more than once or twice on a roster, but it is a necessity in this case.

Guess we’ll find out. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really don’t think Cole is getting 30M. He’s not that good. 

He’s also gonna have a draft pick attached, so that’s going to cut into his market. 

Corbin got 6/140 and he was a little younger than Cole will be. Cole is a little better but they are similar. I think 6/150 is realistic and I wouldn’t even be shocked if he’s got to settle for 5/125, given the way the industry is going. 

Ideally, this offseason, they could do something like this:

1.  Sign Cole to 6/140

2. Sign Ryu to 3/60

Rotation:  Cole, Ryu, Ohtani (~100IP), Canning, Heaney, and a combination of Pena, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval, etc.  

Lineup:  LaStella 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Goodwin/Adell RF*, Thaiss/Pujols 1B, Fletcher 2B, Simba SS, Smith/Stassi C

* - Goodwin might start off in RF, but I am assuming Adell will be ready very quickly

That rotation should be a huge improvement, as we'd be getting roughly 400+ innings from Cole, Ryu, and Ohtani, who are all significantly better than what we've been rolling out this year.  The bullpen should be a strength again as well.  I would say this is a contending team.  It is not the Astros or the Yankees, but it should still be very competitive, and it's not too hard to accomplish.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I like ot (obviously), but I think Ryu would be a harder sign than Cole. I dont see the dodgers letting him go.

[Docwaukee]

Corbin's 6/140 took every other team out of the mix.  Including the Yankees who wanted him bad.  It was considered an overpay.  It's not like he had that offer from multiple teams.  My guess was that multiple teams had 5 years on the table. 

They are actually about the same age relative to their FA year.  Corbin born july of 89 and Cole in sept of 1990.  So Cole is actually a bit younger but not enough to make a difference.  Cole is better.  But not as good as a few others that got larger contracts in a different climate for free agents.  

Corbin also happened to be the best FA option by far whereas in the coming off season market, there will be some other very good options.  

I think the 6th year for Cole won't scare off as many teams and his AAV will be higher.  My guess is something in the 25-27 mil range.  So 6/160.  But if that happens, it will take till the very end of the FA period. To get him sooner, someone will need to go to that 7th year because Boras.  I gonna guess 7/182.  

The contract can also be backloaded to when Albert and Upton come off the books.  something like 20, 22, 24 and then 26, 28, 30, 32.  So they won't have to pay the full AAV up front and that can leave them with additional money to spend

The lineup is set for next year.  So they can focus on two rotation arms.  If they acquire another via trade it gives them that much more financial flexibility.  

[Blarg]

That is true, unless you pick up Harvey and Cahill.

[arch stanton]

The most successful teams recently have gone out and gotten established starters once the team was in place. Cubs with Lester, Arietta, Lackey, Hammell. Red Sox with Sale, Price, Porcello. Yankees are going through this year with Tanaka, Happ, Sabathia, Paxton. Astros with Verlander, Cole, Miley, now Greinke. Really only the Dodgers have their own draft picks at the top of the rotation or even as closer. This winter should be the time to shore up the staff and make the run

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, arch stanton said:

The most successful teams recently have gone out and gotten established starters once the team was in place. Cubs with Lester, Arietta, Lackey, Hammell. Red Sox with Sale, Price, Porcello. Yankees are going through this year with Tanaka, Happ, Sabathia, Paxton. Astros with Verlander, Cole, Miley, now Greinke. Really only the Dodgers have their own draft picks at the top of the rotation or even as closer. This winter should be the time to shore up the staff and make the run

This is my feeling as well.  Thanks to Billy’s drafting and patience, we have filled a lot of spots on both our offense and bullpen.  We have a very clear, definitive weakness (SP), but if we go and acquire 2 top-end SPs (Cole and Ryu), the rotation suddenly becomes a strength, and this team becomes a very good, strongly competitive team.

[Hubs]

17 hours ago, REDneck said:

If u sign Cole...u still need a major trade for a legit #2 or even another #1...lot of work to do

But we could be legit WS contenders next year...if $$$ is spent

Or just keep on keeping on....and contend in the early or mid 20's

Agreeed...RN I want Cole and Bumgarner, to go along with Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, and Pena/Barria/JC Ram.

Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, and Pena/Barria/JC Ram isn't quite as good.

They signed two guys this past offseason and traded for a third. The rotation to open the season was Harvey, Cahill, Pena, Skaggs, and Stanton. Only one of those guys is still in the rotation. (RIP #45). Heaney opened on the DL.

When they predictably go to a 5.5 or even a 6 man rotation with Ohtani again, where are the other 5 arms coming from.

I'd say adding two arms again in the offseason isn't a stretch.

[HaloCory22]

Cole is the must sign. After that we still need a second arm and I'd rather do that via FA than trade. As I've mentioned a few times I'm really into Alex Wood (2020 would be his age 29 season). He'll be cheap and has a really solid track record with the Dodgers in the past. Odorizzi is another I like as well. Either of these guys would be solid 2/3s to build around Cole, Ohtani, Canning. At the end of the day we need at least 2 arms and doing it via FA seems better than trading for the arm especially since we'll lose a pick on Cole.