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Even IF we get Gerrit Cole...


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On 7/31/2019 at 9:14 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really don’t think Cole is getting 30M. He’s not that good. 

He’s also gonna have a draft pick attached, so that’s going to cut into his market. 

Corbin got 6/140 and he was a little younger than Cole will be. Cole is a little better but they are similar. I think 6/150 is realistic and I wouldn’t even be shocked if he’s got to settle for 5/125, given the way the industry is going. 

Gerrit Cole's numbers are extremely similar to pre-free agency Max Scherzer's. They are even slightly better and he's a year younger. Then you add inflation. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could get $30 million. 

I don't think the Corbin comp is as good as the Scherzer comp. Corbin has a career ERA+ of 112 (including his career best this year). Cole's is 121. The two years before FA Cole posted an ERA+ of 141 and 152 so far. Corbin's 2 years before free agency were 116 and 132. Both entered free agency after their age 28 season.

Teams are definitely getting smarter and cheaper, but I think Cole hits the $30 million a year mark.

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Just now, Stradling said:

Machado was from Chicago?  

So now that matters?  Wasnt it you that kept telling those of us worried about Trouts heritage how little that mattered and that it was all about the money? 
Chicago signed a bunch of stuff from Manny's circle to try to lure him, it didnt work out.   What weve done doesnt really mean much, the money will

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Just now, floplag said:

So now that matters?  Wasnt it you that kept telling those of us worried about Trouts heritage how little that mattered and that it was all about the money? 
Chicago signed a bunch of stuff from Manny's circle to try to lure him, it didnt work out.   What weve done doesnt really mean much, the money will

We didn’t sign White or Stassi to lure Machado.  Trout was different, he wasn’t a free agent, he had already signed one extension and there were whispers that he was happy here and liked the separation, these were the things being said here.  They happened to all be true.  I have no idea if we sign Cole, but I absolutely like our chances.  The only team I could see getting him over us would be the Dodgers, but they don’t seem interested in giving free agent pitchers $150 million now that they are developing guys like Buehler and May.  They also have their own free agent Cy Young candidate to resign.  

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33 minutes ago, floplag said:

This assumption reminds me far too much of the White Sox pursuit of Machado.  Lets not put the cart before the horse people

why not put the cart before the horse?  who cares.  either we're going to get him or we're not but he seems like and obvious primary target and there are more reasons why it could work vs. why it wouldn't for now.  We're here to have conversations about it.  Just like we had conversations about Ohtani and Trout extensions and farm systems and Machado and Harper.  

I want to discuss things that keep me excited about this team.  

We're 6.5 games back of the 2nd wild card and just traded for Max Stassi.  They limited the trade deadline to one period (lame) so even if we do make a small run we'll have no opportunity for upgrade which takes another month of excitement off the books for non playoff teams.  So let's talk about Adell and Cole and all the other potentially fun stuff.  

Or we can talk more about how Harvey sucked.  

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24 minutes ago, Stradling said:

We didn’t sign White or Stassi to lure Machado.  Trout was different, he wasn’t a free agent, he had already signed one extension and there were whispers that he was happy here and liked the separation, these were the things being said here.  They happened to all be true.  I have no idea if we sign Cole, but I absolutely like our chances.  The only team I could see getting him over us would be the Dodgers, but they don’t seem interested in giving free agent pitchers $150 million now that they are developing guys like Buehler and May.  They also have their own free agent Cy Young candidate to resign.  

No we didnt, but thats the inference many are drawing. 
I like our chances, i think he will give us a fair look, but i dont think hes leaving millions on the table either.
The Dodgers, i dont know where they are any more than you do, but i do know they are likely losing 2 of their top SP to FA.  Now these are 2 guys it may not make sense to fight to overpay for.  I dont think Ryu will replicate this season and Hill is getting older.   
They have great kids, May and Buehler will be a terrible combination going forward i think and Kershaw is still getting it done without being vintage Kershaw, but if i were them i would try for one of the top FA pitchers to fill in that blank, then again they could just go with what they have.   Ryu and Hill are combined over 35M, they could sign Cole, go with May in the other spot, and still save 5-10M.  They still have Maeda thru 23. and Urias is also still there with Stripling so they have depth.  

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4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

why not put the cart before the horse?  who cares.  either we're going to get him or we're not but he seems like and obvious primary target and there are more reasons why it could work vs. why it wouldn't for now.  We're here to have conversations about it.  Just like we had conversations about Ohtani and Trout extensions and farm systems and Machado and Harper.  

I want to discuss things that keep me excited about this team.  

We're 6.5 games back of the 2nd wild card and just traded for Max Stassi.  They limited the trade deadline to one period (lame) so even if we do make a small run we'll have no opportunity for upgrade which takes another month of excitement off the books for non playoff teams.  So let's talk about Adell and Cole and all the other potentially fun stuff.  

Or we can talk more about how Harvey sucked.  

Im with you there, im just not making any more assumptions.  At this point we have very little left to talk about otherwise i suppose.  I think thats one thing the moved up deadline will hurt, too many teams throwing in the towel a month earlier.   

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2 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

Help me out, because I don't follow this stuff closely:  

Why would Cole want to leave Houston?

It’s as much about Houston being a team that is about to get really expensive.  They already have Verlander, now Greinke, the big contracts they gave Altuve and Bregman will soon be paying them $30 million a year, plus they have to pay Springer soon as well as Correa.  Now it is totally possible they pay Cole if he wants to be there and not pay one of the other two guys.  

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2 hours ago, yk9001 said:

Help me out, because I don't follow this stuff closely:  

Why would Cole want to leave Houston?

There's no reason for him to want to leave Houston.

He's a guy who wants to win and he's on a winning ballclub.

He's going to be a free agent and he wants to be paid. 

Scott Boras client.

The whole "Cole wants to be an Angel" thing is wishful thinking but that's ok.

I hope he wants to be an Angel.

 

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20 minutes ago, Jay said:

There's no reason for him to want to leave Houston.

He's a guy who wants to win and he's on a winning ballclub.

He's going to be a free agent and he wants to be paid. 

Scott Boras client.

The whole "Cole wants to be an Angel" thing is wishful thinking but that's ok.

I hope he wants to be an Angel.

 

Because they aren’t going to pay him 30 million a season and six years is risky. They just traded for Greinke on a shorter term deal. Unlike the Astros, we have to take the risk because we have no other options. They don’t have the desperation to pay what he’ll want. If they do, we can talk then, but all evidence I’ve seen? The chances of Cole staying are extremely low. 

You seem to be presuming (along with several other things) that they have infinite money and are willing to give him whatever he wants or that he’ll take discount to stay in Houston. I reject both of those premises. I don’t think he gives a discount to anyone. In short, your logic is poor, presumably because you’re set on being contrary. My logic is rooted in reality. Is he a sure thing to come to Anaheim? Nope. But you’re nuts if you think we don’t have as good a shot and probably significantly better one than Houston of signing him this offseason. 

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3 hours ago, Stradling said:

It’s as much about Houston being a team that is about to get really expensive.  They already have Verlander, now Greinke, the big contracts they gave Altuve and Bregman will soon be paying them $30 million a year, plus they have to pay Springer soon as well as Correa.  Now it is totally possible they pay Cole if he wants to be there and not pay one of the other two guys.  

Houston, LA, NY - A common thread: Not giving that extra year to SP’s. Instead, trading for what they need or taking short term deals with older guys. This won’t change with Cole. Luhnow is a smart guy and knows he doesn’t need Cole and can’t win a bidding war for him.

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If there was ever a time one team and one player were meant for each other, it would be this off season with the Angels and Cole. The Angels have lots of money to spend on starting pitching, and Cole is exactly what the Angels need. I hate to get too excited about it because I’m tired of being let down by the Angels. 

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My only take on Cole is this.... 

They can't wait on him like Boras likes to do...  They need to sign Wheeler, or someone on that level first, have one front half type wrapped up and signed then focus on finalizing the Cole situation.  If they fail to safeguard against him going elsewhere then they are digging their own graves IMO.

If they unwilling to make that sort of commitment then yeah, Arte is being a wuss.

 

 

Edited by Inside Pitch
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3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

My only take on Cole is this.... 

They can't wait on him like Boras likes to do...  They need to sign Wheeler, or someone on that level first, have one front half type wrapped up and signed then focus on finalizing the Cole situation.  If they fail to safeguard against him going elsewhere then they are digging their own graves IMO.

If they unwilling to make that sort of commitment then yeah, Arte is being a wuss.

 

 

It’s as simple as that.

Our competitive window is open next season. Arte needs to step up or admit we aren’t going to compete because he won’t spend. 

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6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

My only take on Cole is this.... 

They can't wait on him like Boras likes to do...  They need to sign Wheeler, or someone on that level first, have one front half type wrapped up and signed then focus on finalizing the Cole situation.  If they fail to safeguard against him going elsewhere then they are digging their own graves IMO.

If they unwilling to make that sort of commitment then yeah, Arte is being a wuss.

 

 

This is exactly right. Angels can not wait around and then be left at the alter. 

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