The extended Kole Calhoun experiment

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But he still leads the team in strikeouts.

Yeah. That’s not good. 

I don’t think I or the Angels expect him to be some All-Star and hit .300.

I think what is reasonable to expect from him is about a 240/320/430 type line. If he does that and plays great defense, he would help the Angels. 

And I think he’s still capable of that. Given the small sample of ABs, it doesn’t take too long to get from where he is now to there. He’s at the point where 5 hits raises his average 75 points or something. 

Andrelton Simmons had back to back 2-hit games and I think his average went up about 40 points. 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Glen said:

I know you have the outsider's perspective and that every team has their Kole Calhoun (and Cam Bedrosian, and Zack Cozart, and so on) but damn, as a fan it's tiring reading about the different ways in which player X is "unlucky" and due to turn it around any day now.  

And yes, I read the story.  

I guess I don't understand people getting tired/mad/frustrated about showing that there is hope for a player or frankly the entire offense.  

would it make people feel better if that player just sucked?  like Cozart where his crap performance is actually backed by the fact that he's in the bottom 3% of exit velo whereas Calhoun is in the top 5%

[Glen]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I guess I don't understand people getting tired/mad/frustrated about showing that there is hope for a player or frankly the entire offense.  

would it make people feel better if that player just sucked?  like Cozart where his crap performance is actually backed by the fact that he's in the bottom 3% of exit velo whereas Calhoun is in the top 5%

It's just frustration and venting. Of course I hope Calhoun turns it around but as a slightly-above-casual fan I'm not optimistic, despite his outstanding exit velo.

[red321]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I guess I don't understand people getting tired/mad/frustrated about showing that there is hope for a player or frankly the entire offense.  

would it make people feel better if that player just sucked?  like Cozart where his crap performance is actually backed by the fact that he's in the bottom 3% of exit velo whereas Calhoun is in the top 5%

sweet...Calhoun grounds out faster than 95% of the league!

[mulwin444]

From 2014 - 2016, Calhoun put up 4.1, 3.0, and 3.3 WAR averaging about .265 .330 OBP .775 OPS 115 OPS+

3/$26 mil is a pretty decent deal for the team considering he was entering his 29-31 seasons for that period. 

Career-wise, Calhoun put up his best numbers as a lead-off hitter (.267 .331 OBP .793 OPS), so they are technically putting him in the best position to succeed.  Even last season, when he was wretched for three months, he still put up .242 .327 OBP .787 OPS batting lead-off.  

It's a shame...what looked like a bargain didn't end up that way.

[Lou]

I've hoped Calhoun would be a better ball player for too long now.  Fletch said:"I think what is reasonable to expect from him is about a 240/320/430 type line." 

I'm sorry, but I don't think that's reasonable at all. He's batting .169 in 65 ABs.

In his last 150 AB he's batting .130 

In his last 636 AB he's batting .204

The experiment has failed. 

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I find myself torn, has he gotten worse or have the changes in the game around him such as constant defensive shifts minimized him somewhat?|

[Jay]

There's plenty of failure on the Angels, it's just a question of degree.

 

[Docwaukee]

I would also like to point out that he's got a .758 ops from the leadoff spot and another big reason that he's struggling is his 0-16 vs. lefties.  He should be platooning ideally but he's essentially forced to play vs. lefties because of injury and suckage of others. 

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Taylor said:

fair point, likely is a bit of both... though i personally might have gone with this gif...
 

[floplag]

31 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I guess I don't understand people getting tired/mad/frustrated about showing that there is hope for a player or frankly the entire offense.  

would it make people feel better if that player just sucked?  like Cozart where his crap performance is actually backed by the fact that he's in the bottom 3% of exit velo whereas Calhoun is in the top 5%

Lets be honest though Doc, we have some very reactive fans that have wanted to dump the entire roster over a weekend at times.
I agree with you completely on this and he isnt as bad as the numbers suggest.
There are a couple others im a lot more apprehensive about, but he isnt one of them.  I  do think the team might have to make a hard choice if his luck doesnt change by the time Upton is ready, but that isnt pending yet. 

[GrittyVeterans]

The sample size of sucktitude from Calhoun is big enough to tell you that he is toast. Same story with Pujols and Bourjos. Their crap play goes beyond just this season. Cozart is approaching that point very quickly.

A guy like Bour deserves more opportunities since he was a decent player in recent memory.

The Angels need to cut the shit with some of these guys that have been bad multiple seasons in a row. They're only fooling themselves

[GrittyVeterans]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Lets be honest though Doc, we have some very reactive fans that have wanted to dump the entire roster over a weekend at times.
I agree with you completely on this and he isnt as bad as the numbers suggest.
There are a couple others im a lot more apprehensive about, but he isnt one of them.  I  do think the team might have to make a hard choice if his luck doesnt change by the time Upton is ready, but that isnt pending yet. 

He's probably not as bad as these numbers suggest but on what planet is he good? Go look at his last 1,000 at bats. He's no longer a viable everyday player by any stretch of the imagination. 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

He's probably not as bad as these numbers suggest but on what planet is he good? Go look at his last 1,000 at bats. He's no longer a viable everyday player by any stretch of the imagination. 

I didnt say he was, only that hes not as bad as certain numbers suggest. 
Regardless we do not have a better option right now so its moot, much like all the cut Albert talk has been over the last 2 years. 
When Upton comes back, well see  where things are, till that time all we can do is hope he start to even out the numbers.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

He's probably not as bad as these numbers suggest but on what planet is he good? Go look at his last 1,000 at bats. He's no longer a viable everyday player by any stretch of the imagination. 

no one is claiming he's good or that he will be.  Just average would be fine for now.  if anyone expected more than that then they were set up for disappointment.  

[Blarg]

I look at a players out of zone rates to see if there is a change, basically if they are chasing more pitches. In Calhoun's case it really doesn't fluctuate, his swings are around 70% in zone, year in, year out.

His hard hit contact is actually up and was last season from 30-35% to 45%. To me, concerning Calhoun, this not actually a good thing. He traded medium contact from previous seasons to trying to hit the ball harder but in doing so is not really boosting his home run totals, they didn't increase but his doubles drastically decreased. It tells me the swing has outgrown it's usefulness. 

Swing hard and launch angle is not the recipe for every hitter. It's not working for Calhoun. 

[Lou]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

no one is claiming he's good or that he will be.  Just average would be fine for now.  if anyone expected more than that then they were set up for disappointment.  

but he hasn't been average for quite a while. that's why we are disappointed.

[Lou]

I don't care about "rates" 

i care about results. 

[Blarg]

I only care if they are out of alignment with successful seasons. In Calhoun's case he has not changed at what he swings at but how he swings at those pitches is what defines his results. 

[GrittyVeterans]

An average player (starter) is a guy with a 100 OPS+ and about a 2 WAR. 

 

Is anyone seriously thinking Calhoun puts up either of those in 2019?

 

And honestly, average offense out of a corner outfielder should probably be more than 100 OPS+. It's probably about 105 without looking. 

The guy is a crap 4th outfielder that should play maybe 2 times a week.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

An average player (starter) is a guy with a 100 OPS+ and about a 2 WAR. 

 

Is anyone seriously thinking Calhoun puts up either of those in 2019?

 

And honestly, average offense out of a corner outfielder should probably be more than 100 OPS+. It's probably about 105 without looking. 

The guy is a crap 4th outfielder that should play maybe 2 times a week.

Do we have a better option available today?  No, we dont.
Hope he gets it together or pray that someone on the farm develops faster than expected and that we are in contention to justify starting their service clock early.   Since actually being in contention is not looking likely without him getting it together, its a moot point.
If when Upton is ready it hasnt changed, thats the time for this discussion, till then its hugely irrelevant. 

[GrittyVeterans]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Do we have a better option available today?  No, we dont.
Hope he gets it together or pray that someone on the farm develops faster than expected and that we are in contention to justify starting their service clock early.   Since actually being in contention is not looking likely without him getting it together, its a moot point.
If when Upton is ready it hasnt changed, thats the time for this discussion, till then its hugely irrelevant. 

There were better options available in the offseason. We let Brantley go to the Facking team we are trying to get better than.  This is the Pujols situation all over again: Where the team actively doesn't pursue upgrades and then people on here cover their ears and say "We have no better options!". Rinse, wash, repeat. 

 

Eppler needs to have better foresight in the future and actually address issues the roster has. What he did with our problems that we had at 3B, RF, Catcher, 2B is just frankly unacceptable. When Tommy La Stella is the best of the players you brought in to fill holes, that's a shit job

We should have been actively pursuing an upgrade on Calhoun all offseason

[Lou]

better OF option:

LF - Fletcher 

CF - Trout

RF - Goodwin 

[Angelsjunky]

37 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

no one is claiming he's good or that he will be.  Just average would be fine for now.  if anyone expected more than that then they were set up for disappointment.  

 

19 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

An average player (starter) is a guy with a 100 OPS+ and about a 2 WAR. 

Not to nitpick (ok, to nitpick), an average starter is more like 3 WAR. I actually recently researched this, and over the last ten years, the median fWAR for all qualifiers (501+ PA) is 2.7 fWAR; the median for all players with 600+ PA is 3.3 fWAR.

Most full-time regulars have at least 600 PA, so that second number is closer to what is average for an everyday starter, but let's round down (or average the two out) and we get to 3. 

Of course full-time regulars are better than average players. But among starters, ~3 WAR is pretty average. I would consider 3-4 WAR as being a "quality regular" but not really significantly above average. 4-5 is more like "good player" or "borderline star" and 5-7 is an all-star, 7+ MVP candidate, and 9+ a historically great season.

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

better OF option:

LF - Fletcher 

CF - Trout

RF - Goodwin 

For now, maybe. But we all know that Goodwin's numbers will come down and Fletcher has limited upside. Kole sucks, but Upton's injury and the lack of clearly better options gives him some job security.