Friends, it’s over. Bryce Harper has blessed the Phillies

[m0nkey]

 

[Lou]

I think this thread would have more posts if UTH hadn't put "Friends" in the title

[TroutAdell]

I don’t think Trout will be playing at 42. I think more along the lines of 10/350 or 8/320 with one opt out after year five. 

[Amazing Larry]

Just now, Lou said:

I think this thread would have more posts if UTH hadn't put "Friends" in the title

Maybe he's a Quaker.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Giving Trout 13 years would push it 15 yrs if it's an extension. it would push him to 42 years old. Even if it's only 13 yrs total he'll be 40. The Phills will regret the last years of Harper's deal.

Bur $25M won't seem too bad in 13 yrs. though...

Edited February 28, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, m0nkey said:

 

Interesting stuff.  Makes you wonder what Trout is wanting out of his contract.  Teams are obviously willing to build a variety of different types of deal.  It’s completely a guess, but i think that Trout probably will be most interested in a “set his career” contract as well.  It makes sense.  I think. 

[Dick Enberg]

3 minutes ago, TroutTrumbo said:

I don’t think Trout will be playing at 42. I think more along the lines of 10/350 or 8/320 with one opt out after year five. 

9/365mil. give him 40m yearly average and take him to 500m in career earnings. Harper 25.6 yearly is about what he is worth right now. manny worth a bit more, since he a better defensive player, especially at 3rd base

[Lou]

$330 million for Harper is f'n stupid 

[Blarg]

I kind of hope Trout doesn't want to play after age 36. 

[Angelsjunky]

The AAV is a bit less than I expected; I was guessing 10/$330-350M.

Trout will get +10 years, $35-40M per year added onto his two remaining years, imo. I could suspect something like a re-worked 12/$400M contract.

[Lou]

what was Harper's WAR last year? 

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

what was Harper's WAR last year? 

1.3.

[Troll Daddy]

Nice deal for both sides

[Troll Daddy]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

1.3.

This is a great example as to how flawed WAR is 

[Blarg]

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

This is a great example as to how flawed WAR Bryce Harper is 

Fify

[UndertheHalo]

21 minutes ago, Lou said:

I think this thread would have more posts if UTH hadn't put "Friends" in the title

 

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The AAV is a bit less than I expected; I was guessing 10/$330-350M.

 

that's a lot less per year 

[Pancake Bear]

I’m seeing some disparity of opinions here.

[bloodbrother]

39 minutes ago, itsKnoppUitsme said:

 Hopefully this ends the Trout to Philly talk!

Harpers AAV on this deal just ramped up the talk tbh lol

[NJHalo]

The biggest D-bag in baseball goes to the biggest D-bag city. 

It was a match made in heaven.

All hail, King of all D-bags!

Edited February 28, 2019 by NJHalo

[Taylor]

What a terrible deal for the Phillies.

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

This is a great example as to how flawed Baseball Reference's WAR is 

Fixed. Via Fangraphs he was at 3.5. Basically his defense sucked last year and both WARs penalized him, but BR more than FG.

Here's Harper's season WAR from 2012-18: 4.4, 4.1, 1.6, 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5.

Basically he's established a baseline of around 4 WAR, which is a borderline star. Five of his seven years are in the 3.0 - 4.8 range and average out to 4. He has two outlier seasons, one a down and injury-shortened year in 2014 and the other his MVP year in 2015.

The Phillies are banking on a couple things:

1) He not only continues at a 4+ WAR level, but improves upon it. There are reasons to believe he can. He had a 4.8 WAR in 2017 in 111 games. 2018 was disappointing in that he he not only had terrible defense (-18.1 Defensive Runs, which amounts to about 2 WAR), but a low BABIP (.289) led to a .249 batting average. If his BABIP improves to career norms (.318), his triple-slash becomes something like .280/.420/.530; if his defense improves by half, all of a sudden we go from 3.5 to 5.5. Add in a favorable ballpark in Phillie, and it isn't a stretch to expect ~6 WAR.

2) He has more MVP seasons in him. Again, it isn't just 2015. That year he was basically as good as Mike Trout. His wRC+ of 197 was a bit higher than Trout's best and equal to Babe Ruth's career line. Even if he "only" puts up an 180 wRC+ in another peak season or two, that's peak Miggy/Pujols level. 

There's risk, obviously. But I think that at the very least, Harper will have more seasons like 2017 when he was on pace for around 6.5 WAR and had a 155 wRC+. 

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Harpers AAV on this deal just ramped up the talk tbh lol

I think it ramps up the Trout extension talks.

[Amazing Larry]

14 minutes ago, NJHalo said:

The biggest D-bag in baseball goes to the biggest D-bag city. 

It was a match made in heaven.

All hail, King of all D-bags!

[Angelsjunky]

I wonder what sort of higher AAV deals were offered by LA and the Giants. If LAD was offering 5/$200M, I'd almost think that would be preferable to Harper. But it seems he really just wanted that $330M.