Winning feels a long ways away right now.

[AngelsFanSince86]

42 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

MadBum is the ultimate big game pitcher in the post-season.   The only concern is that he's only started 32 games out of a max of about 60 games since 2017.   Did his six straight 200+ innings seasons have an affect on his pitching health the past two seasons?    He is only 29 to start the 2019 season.  

Does the former mean that he might be had for a smaller trade package than he would have been two years ago?   Kind of like Vlad being signed for less after 2003, because of the back issues in 2003? 

He is a rental of sorts for 2019, as the Giants have a $12 million option on him for 2019 before he becomes a FA after that.   That and his recent pitching health makes me a little bit leery.

His pitch load makes me uneasy although he seems the type to be durable.  All of his injuries have been due to accidents.  He was in a dirt bike accident in 2017 and then fractured his hand on a comebacker during spring training this year.  So there aren't really any red flags as far as pitching related injury history.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

It makes a great deal of sense.

Sticking the all time leader in DPs and his August numbers of .205/.286/.308/.584 in the middle of a revamped lineup is very counterproductive to the house you are trying to build. Or his May numbers. Or his June numbers. His July OPS of .925 was his first month over .830 since 2013. he

******************

People need to remember that IF Ohtani continues to pitch, then his bat is gone for 35-40% of the games, approximately. And some of those games will have lefty starters that Albert or some other RH batter will draw the assignment. He could easily miss close to 50% of the DH assignments.

There will be times that we have a day off immediately before or after that will negate this loss of his bat. If it seemed strange that Ohtani pitched on so many Sundays, there was clearly intent in that. Monday is the most common day off. He gets his day off after pitching without it costing the Angels a game with his bat.

Next year there are ten days off on Monday, including the Monday before the All Star game and the Monday after the season ends. 

Ohtani presents a real conundrum. If he's good as a pitcher, it reduces his overall use as a hitter. If he gives up pitching for whatever reason, he is a DH that cant hit LH pitching........at least, so far. 

No one signs a young player and puts them on the arbitration track as only a DH. If Ohtani succumbs to TJ surgery, we could conceivably have only a DH for the first 1.5-2.0 years of his career. And one that can't hit lefties, so far. At least there was no incubation period in the minors.

Isnt there some other position he can play? What about RF, when Kole is gone? What about first base? The guy is immensely athletic.

 

The point that we shouldn’t build a team because Albert is there is stupid, that would be like saying, don’t build a pitching staff a couple of years ago because Weaver was old and threw 83 mph.  Also referring to Albert’s career GIDP is pretty stupid, you are much smarter than that.  I guess we shouldn’t put Andrelton in the middle of the order either since he has hit into more double plays this year than Albert.  Machado has hit into 5 more than Albert this year, I guess we can’t have him in the middle of an order.  

[kevinb]

17 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Great hitter (150+ wRC): Trout

Very good hitters (130-150 wRC+):  Ohtani

Good hitters (110-130 wRC+): Upton, Calhoun, Simmons

Mediocre to Average hitters (80-110 wRC+): Cozart, Pujols, Fletcher, Ward?, Fernandez?, Briceno?

The above is based not just upon what they've done this year, but what (I think) we can expect next year. For example, I think we can assume that Calhoun won't have another historically atrocious bad start and will hit more in alignment with his career average (107 wRC+)

So you've got two star hitters, three good hitters, and a bunch of mediocre to average. I'd still call that good overall. 

Now it could be improved upon. The Angels could sign Grandal and add another "good" hitter. Or maybe one of Cozart, Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, or Rengifo has a good year. But barring a disaster, it should be at least pretty good.

I thought average was 100? 

[Docwaukee]

22 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I thought average was 100? 

it is.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

I thought average was 100? 

Yeah, but I'm considering anything in the 90ish to 110ish range as average. I suppose 95-105 is more accurate, but let's not quibble. So probably below 80 is bad, 80-95 is mediocre, 95-105 is average, 105-120 good, 120-150 very good, 150+ great. Or something like that.

[GrittyVeterans]

it's getting harder and harder to not want Ohtani in the lineup every day. We so desperately need the left handed power he brings...

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

In general, too often people only look at free agents when figuring the available upgrades. 

The Angels now have a farm system so they can make trades. Maybe someone like Madison Bumgarner is available. Marcus Stroman? Michael Fulmer? 

I’m not suggesting any one player in particular, but you ought to widen your net when you’re speculating about deals. 

Sure, but the problem is that trades are virtually impossible to predict. Our own @ettin is really good at coming up with trades but almost none of them ever come to pass.

But your point is a good one, because Eppler has proven he's really good at making trades that improve the team, and ones that seemingly come out of nowhere.

As I think Oscar Wilde said, "expect the unexpected."

[Docwaukee]

but he's so terrible vs. lefties.  

[Angelsjunky]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I went through this prior to my OP almost verbatim to what you've done.  Which is why I posted what I did.  When you first started you were probably more optimistic and then as you went on it was like 'uh.  where are the wins gonna come from'.  amIright?  

the FA market for starters is dookie.  Corbin seems risky to begin with and on top of that, you're gonna have to beat his hometown yankees in money to woo him away.  Didn't someone say Morton would only go back to the 'stros or retire?  Keuchel is the epitome of the FA pitcher not to sign for big money.  

the next tier down is russian roulette.  as are a ton of the trade candidates frankly.  

Ohtani is a coin flip right now.  Barria could take a step forward but more likely settles in as a solid #4.  I'm getting the same vibe from Heaney as well.  Skaggs is still hitting the DL 3-4 times a year.  Who are Trop and Pena?  likely back of the rotation guys who might give you 5 innings per start.  Are we really going to pencil in Meyer at this point?  

Canning and Suarez might chip a bit, but best case they're each 120 ip and an era in the mid 3's.  Don't get me wrong, that would be great.  

We went into this year rubbing the rabbits foot for health.  We are likely going to do the same thing again.  

Well, I'm optimistic because I'm thinking mostly about the 3+ year plan. If 2019-20 sees the Angels compete for the wildcard, great, but I'm thinking that 2021 is when they start getting really good again. That's when the youth movement will really be coming into its own, with "First Wave" players like Barria, Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Walsh, Canning, Suarez, and Sandoval wth a year or two under their belts, and the "Second Wave" players--Jones, Marsh, Adell, Soriano, C Rodriguez, etc--breaking into the majors (the "Third Wave" would be Adams, Knowles, Jackson, Maitan, Soto, etc).

The future remains bright. I see 2018-20 as being the transitional years between the Dark Years of 2010-17 and the New Golden Era of 2020+. My biggest concern is not how to complete in 2019, but how Eppler is going to entice Trout to stick around for that next era. Of course one way to do that is try to compete in 2019, which I'm totally fine with--if his moves also improve the team in the long-term.

My personal preference would be to make the following moves:

1. Sign Yasmani Grandal. Gives the Angels another very good bat and greatly strengthens a weak position.

2. Sign Jeurys Familia. High-end closer for sub-Kimbrel prices.

3. Sign David Robertson. A nice veteran arm in the bullpen, still very good and could be the elder statesman for the young guys.

4. Trade for a starter. The Angels have a growing body of excess minor league talent; they need don't both Thaiss and Walsh; all three of Fletcher, Rengifo and Jones; all three of Adell, Marsh and Hermosillo. 

5. Youth Movement. Start by auditioning current AAA players in Sept: Along with Ward and Fletcher, bring up Rengifo, Walsh, and Fernandez. Phase Pujols out. If the Angels are out by the trade deadline next year, trade Cozart and Calhoun. That sort of thing.

In 2019, the addition of Grandal, Familia, Robertson, and a new starter--plus improvement by replacing old dudes with younger ones--should get the Angels a solid 10 win bump into the 85-win range, and maybe close enough to compete for a wildcard.  2020 should see further improvement as the youth matures. By 2021, the team could start being really good.

So my recommendation: Don't fret too much about 2019. It is the trajectory that counts.

[Docwaukee]

I don't think they'll add a pen piece for over 5mil per year.  

They need starters 

This off season is going to be very important because Eppler is gonna have to choose.  Rengifo, Fletcher, Ward, Thaiss, Marsh, Adell, Canning, Suarez, and a whole slew of others.  Like picking the stay puff marshmallow man.  Don't make the wrong choice.  Or if you do, it better be worth it.  

Again, my targets would be Eugenio Suarez as #1.  Wheeler from NYM but buyer beware.  Carlos Rodon?  The market for SP trades is pretty thin.  I really don't know who we could target that would move the needle.  

[Second Base]

The biggest problem with the offense is Pujols. He guarantees below average production at 1B/DH, and kills rallies by batting in the middle of the freakin order every single night. He's taking up an additional roster spot for a team that needs every spot it can get, and he's firmly blocking legitimate prospects from coming in and helping. 

Until that is fixed, I don't picture the offense ever being powerful. They might be good enough, I guess but not powerful. As much as I like prospects, Taylor Ward isn't the difference between mediocre offense and a good offense, as much as he's just one smaller piece of a larger puzzle. 

The biggest problem with our rotation is health. I'm sorry, but bringing back Skaggs, Ohtani, and Shoemaker next year gives me no confidence that this team will stay healthy and pitch well enough to win the division. And while Canning, Suarez and the new kid from Houston are certainly interesting, we don't know if they're the answer moving forward. 

So unless the Angels trade for or sign a couple of very good, very durable starters, then I have a hard time seeing them winning.

As far as the bullpen goes, it was the worst Angels bullpen I'd ever seen earlier this year. Eppler's done a great job at bringing in other guys like Taylor Cole, Ansel Robles, Williams Jerez and Ty Buttrey. And it'll be good to get Meyer, Ramirez and Middleton all back in the bullpen at some point next year. I mean that's adding three 98 mph fastballs to the back end of the bullpen, which is absolutely insane if it works right. But, I can't say with any confidence that any of those guys will be both healthy and effective. That's a huge gamble.

As much as it pains me to say, but without significant investment in the free agent market or depletion of the farm, or by some insane stroke of good health and fortune unseen since 2014, I don't envision the Angels making the playoffs before 2020.

The team can win. Like if Ward hits major league pitching as he did minor league pitching, we get a very good hitting 2B and have a Fletcher at utility, and Trout and Ohtani keep getting better, and Simmons, Calhoun and Uotin find consistency, then yeah, it'll be eniygh to offset Albert and create a threatening offense. And if Ohtani's back 100% and on his game, and Canning and Suarez are healthy and pitching to their ability, and Skaggs and Heaney reach their potential and Barria continues to progress, then yeah our rotation will be formidable. And if Meyer, Middleton and Ramirez are all healthy and we get big performances from the new guys, we can shorten games.

There's just a lot that needs to go right.

[Angelsjunky]

I've spoken loudly and frequently about putting Albert to pasture, albeit gradually, but I'm not sure I agree that he is the biggest problem of the offense. I mean, I agree that the Angels need more than mediocrity from the high offense 1B/DH position, but I think a bigger problem than Albert has been the crap they've been getting from the bench and various platoons Scioscia has been employing the last couple years. 

Consider:

Valbuena: .199/.253/.335 in 288 PA

Young Jr: .221/.265/.364 in 83 PA

Young: .168/.252/.363 in 128 PA

Marte: .211/.256/.361 in 156 PA

Cowart: .145/.242/.236 in 62 PA

Not to mention suckage from Blash, Fontana, Hermosillo.

That is just too much suckitude for a ton of plate appearances. I'm too lazy to crunch the numbers, but I'm guessing something like .200/.250/.330 in 750 or so PA from the above mentioned players.

So yeah, the Angels need more out of 1B/DH but they also need better role/bench players. I think you improve 1B/DH by improving the bench, because the talent should percolate upward. Thaiss doesn't seem ready yet but could be by the second half next year. Walsh and Fernandez should replace Valbuena/Marte and should be an improvement, maybe substantially so.

So I expect 1B/DH to be a combination of Ohtani, Pujols, Fernandez, Walsh, and maybe Thaiss next year. Should be better, and I think if you have a new manager, Albert's lock on a full-time job will be less certain. We can hope that the new manager will play the best players available.

[kevinb]

I think the thing you guys tend to forget in all this. Is that the other teams in the division and league will be getting better as well. You guys universally thought this team was a 90 heck even 95 win team because we added a full season of Upton Kinsler and Cozart. It didn’t work out. Oh well. But let’s not forget that the rest of the division will be upgrading as well. And the teams ahead of us are already 10 plus games better than we are. So we need to improve a hell of a lot more than just minor adjustments here and there. 

[arch stanton]

Any chance to compete in 2019 depends on everybody staying off the DL and contributing. A full season of a Calhoun anywhere between career level and second half stud, Trout, Ohtani, Upton at the top of the lineup 145 times makes what Albert and whoever at 1B, and Simmons do a bonus. A mix and match of Fletcher, Ward, Cozart, Rengifo playing at least a combined +105, and non-suckage from catcher if not Grandal.

Starting pitchers have to stay in the rotation or at least spread out the DL time. Relievers have to overcome their fear of the third out

[Troll Daddy]

Angels win tonite ... so winning wasn’t as long away as some thought 

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Angels win tonite ... so winning wasn’t as long away as some thought 

dumb

 

[mtangelsfan]

6 hours ago, Kevinb said:

I think the thing you guys tend to forget in all this. Is that the other teams in the division and league will be getting better as well. You guys universally thought this team was a 90 heck even 95 win team because we added a full season of Upton Kinsler and Cozart. It didn’t work out. Oh well. But let’s not forget that the rest of the division will be upgrading as well. And the teams ahead of us are already 10 plus games better than we are. So we need to improve a hell of a lot more than just minor adjustments here and there. 

I think that is a false narrative.  Some teams get worse from one season to the next.  They all don't improve.

[Lou]

6 hours ago, Kevinb said:

I think the thing you guys tend to forget in all this. Is that the other teams in the division and league will be getting better as well. You guys universally thought this team was a 90 heck even 95 win team because we added a full season of Upton Kinsler and Cozart. It didn’t work out. Oh well. But let’s not forget that the rest of the division will be upgrading as well. And the teams ahead of us are already 10 plus games better than we are. So we need to improve a hell of a lot more than just minor adjustments here and there. 

so every other team in the division will improve next year? 

i would bet that isn't the case 

[Lou]

damn you, mt 

[totdprods]

17 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

In general, too often people only look at free agents when figuring the available upgrades. 

The Angels now have a farm system so they can make trades. Maybe someone like Madison Bumgarner is available. Marcus Stroman? Michael Fulmer? 

I’m not suggesting any one player in particular, but you ought to widen your net when you’re speculating about deals. 

Bet Jose Urena could be had pretty cheaply these days. I still think he'd be a good acquisition to take some innings at the back of the rotation. He reminds me of Santana in a lot of ways, and I could see him clicking and emerging as a solid #3 with occasional glimpses of a strong #2. But even if he remains at a #4-#5 guy with a 4.00 ERA and 160 IP, that's a step up from Despaigne, McGuire, Lamb, and relievers. 

The Acuna thing was absolutely stupid, but there hasn't been any other sort of incidents with him and he's had former teammates say it was out of character. 

[mulwin444]

1 hour ago, mtangelsfan said:

I think that is a false narrative.  Some teams get worse from one season to the next.  They all don't improve.

Pretty much...

As solid as Oakland is this year, their rotation is Manea (who just ended up on the DL with a shoulder issue), Trevor Cahill (who last threw 100 innings in 2014), Brett Anderson (who last made it through a season healthy in 2015), Edwin Jackson (whose last decent year as a starter was 2012), and Mike Fiers.  

Cahill, Anderson, and Jackson are all free agents in 2019, Fiers is a free agent in 2020.

As for the A's BP, both Rodney and Familia are free agents.  Jed Lowrie is a free agent as well.

Mariners?  Their rotation of Paxton (if he can stay healthy), Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez, and Wade LeBlanc will still be there but it's kinda meh.  Felix will be awful one more season and may not even crack the rotation and they have no other legit prospects incoming.  Span and Cruz are free agents and, besides Segura, Cano, and Haniger, who else on their offence scares you?  They'll still have Colome and Diaz at the back end of the BP..if they can get them the lead.

Rangers are the Rangers for now.

The big boy is and will remain Houston as Altuve, Correa, Bregman and Springer are all under contract for a few more years.  The one gap I could see with them is their pitching as both Keuchel and Morton are FAs and Verlander, Cole, and Rondon are only under contract through 2019.

If the Angels can maintain their upward movement, 2020 could be good for them.

[nate]

Need tons of pitchers in order to compete.  And not the damaged goods type pitchers that the Angels tried to go with the last two seasons.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, nate said:

Need tons of pitchers in order to compete.  And not the damaged goods type pitchers that the Angels tried to go with the last two seasons.

The more I think about it the more I want DeGrom or Syndergaard (Thor, I think that’s his last name).   

[Jeff Fletcher]

Re: Pujols. 

The problem isn’t really Pujols’s performance level. 

The problem is that the Angels have so few other good hitters that he’s still one of their nine best hitters. And two of the best nine are both DHs. That just doesn’t work.

The solution is probably to get some other hitter who is very good and can play multiple positions, including first. 

That gives you options. Not only do you have someone good enough to justify benching Pujols (ie, not Jefry Marte) more frequently, but you have someone who can play another position and be in the lineup with Pujols. You need someone who has Marte or Valbuena’s skillset, but is a much better player. (You guys can find that guy. It’ll be your homework.)

Another alternative is the always-discussed Ohtani-in-the-field thing. I think 1B makes more sense than OF, but I still think it’s really unlikely. Simply pitching and hitting means Ohtani already has more on his plate than every other player in the majors. Adding defense is tough. Maybe if he has TJ and isn’t pitching at all for a season. 

[tdawg87]

Manny Machado

What do I win?