I Am Pumped Upton!

[HaloRed]

Healthier, showing as that impact bat, tapping in, what we've been waiting for.

[AngelArcher]

Wow, get ready for the thunder after that lightning of a title. 

 

[JoJo26]

Yeah - you might want to re-do that title.....

[tdawg87]

Upton is the first left fielder since Juan Rivera to have at least 25 HR and 70 RBI. One more homer and I believe he's the first left fielder since GA to hit at least 26 HR. That was in 2003.....

But he sucks and we shouldn't have signed him, obviously.

[Stradling]

No one hates the moves the Angels make more than Angel fans.   Hell some fans hate the good moves the Angels make, like signing Upton.  

[arch stanton]

The look on Hosmer's face after the catch was worth signing him

[Stradling]

Ok here is another question for the stat guys (I know i should learn all of this myself), but the common thing stated as the difference between bWAR and fWAR is fangraphs doesn’t value defense as highly as baseball reference.  This morning when I looked up Upton’s bWAR it was 3.4 and his fWAR was 3.0.  So if bWAR values defense higher then shouldn’t his WAR by their standards be lower considering he is a slightly below average left fielder?  Or is it that bWAR gives you extra points if you are a good defensive player, but doesn’t take as much away if you are an average to bad defensive player?  @ettin @Inside Pitch @totdprods  

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok here is another question for the stat guys (I know i should learn all of this myself), but the common thing stated as the difference between bWAR and fWAR is fangraphs doesn’t value defense as highly as baseball reference.  This morning when I looked up Upton’s bWAR it was 3.4 and his fWAR was 3.0.  So if bWAR values defense higher then shouldn’t his WAR by their standards be lower considering he is a slightly below average left fielder?  Or is it that bWAR gives you extra points if you are a good defensive player, but doesn’t take as much away if you are an average to bad defensive player?  @ettin @Inside Pitch @totdprods  

It's not so much that they value defense that differently, it's the systems they use to value defense. One values steady play over more erratic play. The other values the spectacular play over the routine.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

It's not so much that they value defense that differently, it's the systems they use to value defense. One values steady play over more erratic play. The other values the spectacular play over the routine.

Ok, and I am guessing because of Upton’s speed he gets to a few more balls that the average left fielder doesn’t get to, but he blows a few more because of bad routes so he gets dinged?  Does one value errors higher than the other because despite his erratic play he has had only a couple of errors on the season?

[eaterfan]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok, and I am guessing because of Upton’s speed he gets to a few more balls that the average left fielder doesn’t get to, but he blows a few more because of bad routes so he gets dinged?  Does one value errors higher than the other because despite his erratic play he has had only a couple of errors on the season?

I don't think either system (UZR or DRS) uses errors, if I'm correct. They basically just classify each ball pit into play. Basically they classify balls hit into play (pop up into zone 2, line drive into zone 6, etc.) and then compare how many times that ball is converted to an out. Take that Padres misplay last night. That wasn't an error but it was a play that hurt the defensive ratings because an out wasn't recorded on a play when an out is recorded probably 98% of the time.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I don't think either system (UZR or DRS) uses errors, if I'm correct. They basically just classify each ball pit into play. Basically they classify balls hit into play (pop up into zone 2, line drive into zone 6, etc.) and then compare how many times that ball is converted to an out. Take that Padres misplay last night. That wasn't an error but it was a play that hurt the defensive ratings because an out wasn't recorded on a play when an out is recorded probably 98% of the time.

Thanks man.  This stuff interests me, but it can be overwhelming at times.  

[eaterfan]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Thanks man.  This stuff interests me, but it can be overwhelming at times.  

No worries. I'm pretty into the stuff, too, but it's hard. Once I think I've gotten it figured out then I realize I totally misinterpreted something. Or they get better sources of data and change their formula.

[popo85]

On pace for 30 plus hrs 90 ribbies he's doing his job yes he did struggle with runners on base but hes picking up on that too

[mulwin444]

Bippity Boppity Boo

[totdprods]

Near .900 OPS (.873) since May 1st....

[WeatherWonk]

Every time I'm ready to write this guy off as another bad Angel investment, he goes on another streak like this. GA was never this streaky, as I recall. 

He's still a real liability in left (I thought most any decent LF makes that catch on Hosmer;  it was not that difficult), but he is really cookin' at the plate right now.

The money notwithstanding, we really dont have to worry about offensive production from LF anymore.

On to the next hole in the lineup!

[mulwin444]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Near .900 OPS (.873) since May 1st....

Yeah, he's hitting .263 .350 .822 OPS 124 OPS+, basically his career norms, and putting up 3.4 WAR despite questionable leftfield defense and striking 139 times in 117 games (on pace for eclipsing his career high of 180 from last season).  

 

[totdprods]

The lack of doubles is a bummer too. 

But overall, I really can't complain about Justin Upton. 

[Troll Daddy]

46 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The lack of doubles is a bummer too. 

But overall, I really can't complain about Justin Upton. 

The team as a whole is struggling with doubles  

 Simmons 22 

Trout 21

Pujols 19

Upton 16

[Angel Oracle]

His RISP OPS has improved to .659, and he is on one of his power surges.

[Jeff Fletcher]

UZR counts all plays as pass-fail: compared to an average MLB player, did you or did you not make a play in a certain spot on the field?

DRS does that, but also includes the number of bases you saved or cost your team by making or not making the play, and that is converted into runs. 

If you’re comparing apples to apples (OF to OF, SS to SS) either works just as well.

UZR is probably better for comparing raw defensive skill. DRS is better for comparing impact on winning games. 

Another thing for OFs: HR robberies really skew the DRS. That’s why Trout’s numbers were so high in 2012. He had 4, I think. In other years he had maybe 1 a year. That’s more a factor of opportunity than skill. (Also of the fence height in your home ballpark.)

Also, neither of them take positioning into account. If you start a play shaded way deep and in the gap and a ball comes straight to you, you get a lot of credit for your “range” even though you didn’t move. That’s the main reason all these defensive metrics are of limited use. 

[eaterfan]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

UZR counts all plays as pass-fail: compared to an average MLB player, did you or did you not make a play in a certain spot on the field?

DRS does that, but also includes the number of bases you saved or cost your team by making or not making the play, and that is converted into runs. 

If you’re comparing apples to apples (OF to OF, SS to SS) either works just as well.

UZR is probably better for comparing raw defensive skill. DRS is better for comparing impact on winning games. 

Another thing for OFs: HR robberies really skew the DRS. That’s why Trout’s numbers were so high in 2012. He had 4, I think. In other years he had maybe 1 a year. That’s more a factor of opportunity than skill. (Also of the fence height in your home ballpark.)

Also, neither of them take positioning into account. If you start a play shaded way deep and in the gap and a ball comes straight to you, you get a lot of credit for your “range” even though you didn’t move. That’s the main reason all these defensive metrics are of limited use. 

There's a new stat where they are using statcast data to track distance covered from contact and hangtime on flyballs. That takes positioning out of the equation.

However, I'm not sure whether or not that's a good thing. Cal Ripken positioned himself incredibly well and converted many more plays than most would have with his athletic skills.

On the other hand good coaching could help move more athletic players into the same positioning as the smarter players.

[ettin]

18 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

UZR counts all plays as pass-fail: compared to an average MLB player, did you or did you not make a play in a certain spot on the field?

DRS does that, but also includes the number of bases you saved or cost your team by making or not making the play, and that is converted into runs. 

If you’re comparing apples to apples (OF to OF, SS to SS) either works just as well.

UZR is probably better for comparing raw defensive skill. DRS is better for comparing impact on winning games. 

Another thing for OFs: HR robberies really skew the DRS. That’s why Trout’s numbers were so high in 2012. He had 4, I think. In other years he had maybe 1 a year. That’s more a factor of opportunity than skill. (Also of the fence height in your home ballpark.)

Also, neither of them take positioning into account. If you start a play shaded way deep and in the gap and a ball comes straight to you, you get a lot of credit for your “range” even though you didn’t move. That’s the main reason all these defensive metrics are of limited use. 

Which is why they should mark the players starting position and use that as the basis to develop the defensive model. After a sufficiently large sample size you could probably develop a heat map or something similar showing an individual players ability to get to balls in front, behind, and laterally, including how many they actually catch in each zone. I have to think there are teams out there that are doing this type of analysis.

[Taylor]

Surprised calscuf didn't create this thread.

[GrittyVeterans]

He’s fine

id love to see them add a big bat this offseason so he doesn’t have to be the 2nd best hitter on the team all the time