The Official 2018 Amateur Draft Thread

[Docwaukee]

On 6/11/2018 at 10:16 AM, Dochalo said:

If you look at rounds 6-10 on a historical basis, how many players put up solid major league careers from that pool?  

I went back and looked at 15 years worth of drafts from the late 90's through 2010 and about 3 players per draft end up with 10 or more WAR for their career.  

That's 3 out of 150 players or 2%.  So the odds of finding an impactful player in those rounds is almost negligible.  

So.....

Everyone drafts college seniors and they all get senior money to sign ie anywhere from a bus ticket to about 50k.  

Every pick from 11-40 can get up to 125k without it affecting the pool.  

Slot value for picks 6-10 is about 920k plus the 5% you can go over gives you about 1mil.  All 5 of those picks for the halos were seniors.  If they avg about 20k each, that's 900k left.  

If you draft those guys later and they sign for the same amount, it saves you nothing from your pool.  

As an exercise, take picks 11-15.  3 HS and 2 college jrs.  They're upside picks who would are likely going to have signability issues.  Let's say, though, you drafted them all at 6-10 instead of 11-15 and they all signed for slot.  Then you drafted those college seniors at 11-15 and signed them for 20k each.  How much does that chew up from the pool in both scenarios? 

The way the halos did it:

+900k for senior signs in rounds 6-10 (1m in pool money - 100k to sign them)
Again, assume that 11-15 each sign for 6-10 slot money.  So that's around 1m.  They can each get 125k without it affecting the pool so that's 625k - 1m = 375k subtracted from the pool.  So you still have 525k in surplus pool left

If you transposed 6-10 with 11-15

6-10 now takes the entire pool value of those picks
11-15 sign for 20k each but you don't get that surplus back.  
so the net surplus back to the pool is ZERO.  

What if that extra 525k in pool money affords you the ability to go over slot on 2 of the high upside guys you drafted later like Isaiah Campbell from ARK (ranked 109 but picked 721) or Chandler Champlain (ranked 120 but picked 1141).  

The slot value for our 4th round pick (121) is 455k.  Both of those guys are equivalent to 4th round picks that would cost about 900k.  They can get 125k each plus the extra pool money is now 775k.  Shave a little more off from our first 5 picks to sign these guys and we've now got 3 fourth round picks from this draft.    

 

hey @mtangelsfan.  here's a post i did earlier in the thread that explains current draft strategy.  

[John Smith]

Still waiting for something official:

Round   11    Connor Van Scoyoc        R/R    6-6    210    11/26/99        RHS     HS

"Van Scoyoc said he plans to fly out to Arizona within the next week to begin his professional career."

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/2018/06/06/connor-van-scoyoc-los-angeles-angels-mlb-draft-cedar-rapids-jefferson/677682002/

 

[Angel Oracle]

So, the only uncertain one amongst the top 21 picks is 13th round pick Criswell, who is pitching in the CWS? 

[John Smith]

Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB

More

11th-rder Connor Van Scoyoc signs w/@Angels for $397,500 ($272,500 counts vs. pool). Iowa HS RHP, fastball to 92 mph, very projectable at 6-5/200. Arizona State recruit. @MLBPipeline

 

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, John Smith said:

Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB

More

11th-rder Connor Van Scoyoc signs w/@Angels for $397,500 ($272,500 counts vs. pool). Iowa HS RHP, fastball to 92 mph, very projectable at 6-5/200. Arizona State recruit. @MLBPipeline

 

that's good news we signed him, but that pretty much decimates the rest of the pool.  gonna be tough to sign anyone else like criswell or campbell.  Almost zero chance of getting Champlain now.   

[Docwaukee]

So that leaves us with about another 75k to spend over the 125k per.  My guess is that's going to Nunan.  

[Taylor]

I look forward to all the horrible misspellings Connor Van Scoyoc in the near future.

[T.G.]

High School Player(s) of the Year... https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15331

ALABAMA

Jeremiah Jackson

Looking at Jackson's stats can be a fairly vivid experience, as some of those numbers simply jump off the page and earned him the honor of being selected as the Perfect Game Player of the Year. The second round selection of the Angels, and a PG All-American last summer, hit a scorching .644 on the season with 15 home runs and even earned three saves in relief. Jackson's tools jump off the board and its easy to see why he was valued so highly as the production lived up to the hype as well to be named the top player in Alabama.

 

[Angelsfan1984]

5 minutes ago, True Grich said:

High School Player(s) of the Year... https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15331

ALABAMA

Jeremiah Jackson

Looking at Jackson's stats can be a fairly vivid experience, as some of those numbers simply jump off the page and earned him the honor of being selected as the Perfect Game Player of the Year. The second round selection of the Angels, and a PG All-American last summer, hit a scorching .644 on the season with 15 home runs and even earned three saves in relief. Jackson's tools jump off the board and its easy to see why he was valued so highly as the production lived up to the hype as well to be named the top player in Alabama.

 

Looks like they got another one too! IOWA

Connor Van Scoyoc

Though some of Iowa's high school season takes place during the summer, Van Scoyoc is one of the more talented arms in the state and has electric stuff to boot. The 11th-round selection by the Angels features a very lively fastball that has significant running action and a high-spin breaking ball that he can locate for strikes. He has an ERA under 1.00 on the season and has struck out more batters than innings pitched

[Angel Oracle]

54 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Looks like they got another one too! IOWA

Connor Van Scoyoc

Though some of Iowa's high school season takes place during the summer, Van Scoyoc is one of the more talented arms in the state and has electric stuff to boot. The 11th-round selection by the Angels features a very lively fastball that has significant running action and a high-spin breaking ball that he can locate for strikes. He has an ERA under 1.00 on the season and has struck out more batters than innings pitched

Add a changeup, and starter material

[Angelsfan1984]

10 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Add a changeup, and starter material

IMO one of the easier pitches to add to a repertoire.

[Taylor]

It's fun being excited about the Angels' farm system again. And it's tough to not get biased and assume that all of these guys are going to pan out. But all of the talent that has been drafted under Eppler is exciting. So many great stories.

[greginpsca]

Watching the CWS. Isiah Campbell pitching vs florida. After 2 innings 1-0 Arkansas. Campbell struck out the last 4 hitters.

[2020worldseries]

10 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Watching the CWS. Isiah Campbell pitching vs florida. After 2 innings 1-0 Arkansas. Campbell struck out the last 4 hitters.

94-96 FB and nasty slider. Too bad Angels probably won’t be able to sign him.. 

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, 2020worldseries said:

94-96 FB and nasty slider. Too bad Angels probably won’t be able to sign him.. 

truly.  

If he's truly the 109th best player in this draft and he went in the 24th round as a jr, it's kinda weird.  

A few tid bits about college senior signs.  

the first 4th yr senior to get drafted was in the 4th round by cinci and he got 50k.   Most get 2500 to 50k 

there's a few guys listed as seniors but have another year of eligibility so they have more leverage.   you can tell.  Like Feigl who got 300k from the A's in the 5th round.  

3 in the 5th round.  5 in the 6th. and it ramps up from there.  

So if he waits, it's likely that he won't get jack.  

But there are lots of jr signs for the 125k.  

I actually think he'll sign.  

 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Stax said:

#55 Isaiah Campbell

RHP | Redshirt Sophomore | 6-4 | 225 | Olathe, Kan. / Olathe South HS

As a Sophomore (2017)
Made one appearance against Bryant (Feb. 25), throwing 0.2 innings, while walking one and striking out one on 26 pitches … Was shut down for the remainder of the year with an elbow injury, but was given a medical redshirt for the season.

so he definitely won't sign then.  oh well.  

[Lou]

He's a redshirt sophomore in HS?

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Lou said:

He's a redshirt sophomore in HS?

yes. 

no.

what?

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

55 Isaiah Campbell

RHP | Redshirt Sophomore | 6-4 | 225 | Olathe, Kan. / Olathe South HS

that 

[Taylor]

13 hours ago, Lou said:

He's a redshirt sophomore in HS?

He's only 14.

[Stax]

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/roster/isaiah-campbell/

[greginpsca]

Am guessing that the 13 unsigned guys are returning to school, as the signing deadline is a week away.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, greginpsca said:

Am guessing that the 13 unsigned guys are returning to school, as the signing deadline is a week away.

I bet we have a good shot at signing 12 and 13.  

[greginpsca]

Am surprised the 4yr jr guys haven't signed. They are probably close to graduating, and it is their last chance to make any kind of bonus.  

[Docwaukee]

Just now, greginpsca said:

Am surprised the 4yr jr guys haven't signed. They are probably close to graduating, and it is their last chance to make any kind of bonus.  

a couple of them have redshirt years so they could still have some leverage next year.