Will We See an Extension for Richards?

[Revad]

Richards looked great yesterday, like a true ace.  Will he stay healthy?  Pitchers are all risky bets and if Eppler waits until the end of the season it may be an expensive piece of business.  Replacing him would also be expensive and without another #1 starter the Angels will likely be stuck playing for a wild card spot for several years, given the Astros looking like a super team.  Would you extend Richards before this season or after, and what would that extension look like?

[Troll Daddy]

Great Question 

I think you could save $$$ before the season since there’s uncertainty on both sides. 

[Docwaukee]

would love that but at this point he's so close to free agency and stands to likely get a huge payday if he has a healthy season.  If the halos were to extend him now it would probably be for nowhere close to what that number could jump to with a solid year.  It may also be that the halos want to see him healthy before they consider it.  

He's entering age 30 and has pitched all of 60 innings the last two years.  3/45 is the max I'd go right now.  

[Ohtaniland]

[WeatherWonk]

It is not knowable right now, grasshopper. Patience. All will be clear in 3-4 months.

[Second Base]

Richards has no incentive to sign an extension. If he's healthy and pitches well, he may earn more in FA than he would from an extension. That and his agent would probably successfully Market him as a "low mileage starter".

On the other hand, given the market this year, he may want the guarantee. No one wants to go through what guys like Cobb, Lynn or Arrieta are going through.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Richards has pitched more than 200 innings in a season only once in his career.  The knee injury in 2014 covering 1B was a freak injury but unless it's a team friendly deal I wouldn't want the Angels to extend him just yet.  In a contract year if he stays healthy and pitches like an ace or close to it he's in line to get paid.  That may price him out of being an Angel in 2019 but I think that's a risk you take as opposed to extending him and facing the possibility of him battling injuries the rest of his contract.   

[Tyler]

Nah, SP's need to start being treated differently. Make him the beginning of a 1+1 trend. High dollar and team option second year. Long-term contracts for SP's are behind us. 

[bloodbrother]

No thank you. Nowhere near the track record you're looking for when it comes to giving a multi-yr deal to a starter and is about to turn 30 in 2 months. The injury risks with his elbow are well known. That's not an arm I want to buy into long-term

Cross your fingers he stays on the mound all year and pitches well and then throw the QO at him and wish him on his merry way

[oater]

This only works if Richards is open to an extension on reasonable terms. If he wants a 5 yr/$125M deal, then no.  If he would agree to a 4 yr. deal in the neighborhood of $60-$80M, I would definitely consider it.  

[Angels#1Fan]

1 hour ago, bloodbrother said:

No thank you. Nowhere near the track record you're looking for when it comes to giving a multi-yr deal to a starter and is about to turn 30 in 2 months. The injury risks with his elbow are well known. That's not an arm I want to buy into long-term

Cross your fingers he stays on the mound all year and pitches well and then throw the QO at him and wish him on his merry way

It would be extremely risky to give Richards a multi-year deal and I honestly think it would be irresponsible to extend him given his history of injuries. It's a shame but sometimes these things happen..the guy has great stuff. Richards is way too close to returning from a serious injury in which he received an unusual treatment for that doesn't have much of a track record one way or the other. As I said, it would be too risky in my opinion.

If he stays healthy and pitches good this season then good on him. He'll have a chance at becoming a free agent and getting a good payday but to gamble on him at this point would be the same as betting on the come.

[JustATroutFan]

Richards has had only 1 good year (2014) in his career, though. Other than that, he's been either hurt or underachieve. Great stuff and has ace potential when things are right.

[ettin]

It is my opinion, as I stated in the Primer, that the Angels should give him an extension. Length may be flexible but the Angels could probably negotiate a clause in the contract related to his plasma-injection for his elbow similar to Lackey's deal with Boston when they put a clause in there that if his elbow blew out the following season he would only get paid league minimum.

There are potential ways to work around this issue. Someone of Richards' caliber is worth taking a calculated risk on particularly in a depressed off-season where the Angels might be able to negotiate a team-friendly deal.

I'm all in on giving upwards of 5-6 years depending on the amount and the terms of the deal. There has to be either a reasonable discount or protection built-in to the deal but in my opinion it is worth the roll of the dice. In the end only the team doctors know the condition of his elbow so there is a lot of information that is obscure to the casual fans.

[kevinb]

Pitchers over 30 or at 30 with injury risk galore getting 5-6 year deals ya this isn’t early 2000s I’d pass. Let’s see how the season plays out and offer him a QO and be done with it. He has good stuff but too injury prone for my taste. 

[totdprods]

After this offseason I don't think we have any friggin' clue what Richards could sign for. 

Even with his potential and if he has a good year, I'd really hesitate giving him more than a 3/$42 and even that makes me uneasy. He'd have to have a great year and show durability, and we'd need to see the other arms step up as cheap, durable, good arms to round out the rotation. 

[Revad]

Richards is making $7.3 million this year.  Why not offer something like an option year for 2019 for $12 million with $2 million as a buy out and include an agreement to not do a qualifying offer (in 2020) if the option is picked up?  Angels risk the $2 million and Richards risks some salary for next year but ducks the QO.

This might not work but there is some middle ground somewhere.

[Ohtaniland]

1.1 War has got to be worth almost as much Moustakas got. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

1.1 War has got to be worth almost as much Moustakas got. 

In 6 starts.  That 1.1bWAR is why there will be a market for Richards - it only took him 6 starts to get to there.   It's the same reason Rich Harden never had any trouble finding a paycheck, the potential upside is there.

Cliff Lee was the reigning AL Cy Young in 2009 -- he made 6 mil.   Andy Pettite had reeled off four straight seasons of 200 IP and he earned 5.5 mil.  Rich Harden had made 13 starts the previous two years and he got 7 Mil as a FA...   That 7 mil put him in the top 30 for SP salaries.

The game is obviously changing, but guys with Richards' stuff and upside are still very rare.

 

[Inside Pitch]

15 hours ago, ettin said:

I'm all in on giving upwards of 5-6 years depending on the amount and the terms of the deal. There has to be either a reasonable discount or protection built-in to the deal but in my opinion it is worth the roll of the dice. In the end only the team doctors know the condition of his elbow so there is a lot of information that is obscure to the casual fans.

Dunno if I'd go the length you would, truth is I'd have a hard time offering 6 years to a pitcher with a perfect health record..  But if they haven't at least looked into a three year deal they may be shooting themselves in the foot.

I can see Philly throwing a lot of money at him next year -- Klentak is familiar with spin rates, knows Richards well, and likely views him as a good first step towards other possible future acquisitions.

[Revad]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dunno if I'd go the length you would, truth is I'd have a hard time offering 6 years to a pitcher with a perfect health record..  But if they haven't at least looked into a three year deal they may be shooting themselves in the foot.

I can see Philly throwing a lot of money at him next year -- Klentak is familiar with spin rates, knows Richards well, and likely views him as a good first step towards other possible future acquisitions.

Plus anything the Phils can do to lure Trout away would be a plus to them, weren’t Richards and Trout roommates at some point?  Eppler should take that into consideration....

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I'd wait to see if this arm falls off first.......

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, OHTANILAND said:

1.1 War has got to be worth almost as much Moustakas got. 

Richards just got clodded.  

[Tank]

No reason to offer him anything at this point in time because we have no idea how healthy his arm is. 

What if he only makes 7 starts this season and then goes down with another injury? Or what if he pitches 212 innings and wins 18 games? Vastly different contracts from either of those scenarios.