FanGraphs - Angels Top 20 Prospects

[Hubs]

15 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Yeah, our farm system has come a long way. It's good to see.

Re: Thaiss

I like the player, but comparing him and Cron is rather faulty. Thaiss is 6'0" and the interesting line with him in the writeup is "some scouts are bothered by the undersized target he presents for infielders."

 

Cron, by comparison is listed at 6'4"--a noticeable difference.

 

While Cron is taller than Thaiss, Cron has far more power than Thaiss. Cron, I believe was scouted as a 70 power, and Thaiss is not that. However, if plate discipline were scouted, Thaiss would be far superior. Look at their age 22 seasons at IE. Thaiss had a 40:59 BB:K ratio in 84 games, whereas Cron had a 17:72 ratio in 129 games. Cron will put up more power over a season, but with more feast and famine stretches, whereas Thaiss appears to be more steady and consistent, albeit with far fewer homers, but probably more doubles.

Sounds like a good platoon to me.

 

[Second Base]

I always find it simply astounding that FG's scouting reports can be so inaccurate, yet people still pay attention to their top prospects like they actually mean something.

They got some easy stuff wrong on literally half the players they listed. And I mean easy stuff that anyone would notice if they actually watched these kids play.

[Angelsjunky]

What about John Kruk as a comp for Thaiss? Aside from Matt being better looking. Kruk never hit more than 21 HR, and hit as few as 7 in a full season, but he hit for a good average and walked a lot, finishing his career with a .300/.397/.446 line. 

[Second Base]

I think at some point, they'll stop trying to compare dissimilar players. 

Comparing Thaiss and Cron is laziness. Yup they play the same position, that's about it. A better comp for Thaiss on the current roster would be Kole Calhoun, and even that's a stretch.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I think Thaiss just needs to muscle up. He can add weight and pop that way. But I don't like his sub .400 slugging percentage either, it should be closer to .500 or .600 in SLC to earn a big league job. But if he's defensively ready and can hit for average and low strike outs, he could turn into a decent backup sooner than later.

Have you actually seen Matt Thaiss in the last year? The kid is stacked. He's looking like Trout. Saying he needs to add muscle is a little like saying Richards needs to throw the ball harder.

[Angelsjunky]

I've been using the McCutchen comp for Jones for awhile, with that being, of course, his absolute ceiling. 

Ortiz for Marsh baffles me because Marsh is far more athletic, but doesn't have the plate discipline. If Marsh had plate discipline he'd be better than Adell and Jones, imo.

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I've been using the McCutchen comp for Jones for awhile, with that being, of course, his absolute ceiling. 

Ortiz for Marsh baffles me because Marsh is far more athletic, but doesn't have the plate discipline. If Marsh had plate discipline he'd be better than Adell and Jones, imo.

Cutch is a very accurate comp for Jones though. Same body type, same great intangibles and love for the game and similar skill set. Obviously, Cutch had a three year period where he was just flat out better than those around him, and I don't anticipate that happening with Jahmai (especially with Mike Trout around), but I think the 20 HR, 30 SB type of outfielder is who Jahmai can become. It really wouldn't surprise me, and it shouldn't surprise anyone.

I don't think it'll happen, I think Jahmai is more 15 HR 25 SB type, but the skill is there.

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Cutch is a very accurate comp for Jones though. Same body type, same great intangibles and love for the game and similar skill set. Obviously, Cutch had a three year period where he was just flat out better than those around him, and I don't anticipate that happening with Jahmai (especially with Mike Trout around), but I think the 20 HR, 30 SB type of outfielder is who Jahmai can become. It really wouldn't surprise me, and it shouldn't surprise anyone.

I don't think it'll happen, I think Jahmai is more 15 HR 25 SB type, but the skill is there.

Yes, I think a more likely outcome is McCutchen without the very best years. Maybe Jahmai peaks at around .290/.850, with 20 HR and 30 SB. With good defense that's probably ~5 WAR. A more typical year might be .280/.800, 15 HR, and 3-4 WAR.

[tdawg87]

Remember when Trout was compared to Aaron Rowand? 

Good times.

 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I always find it simply astounding that FG's scouting reports can be so inaccurate, yet people still pay attention to their top prospects like they actually mean something.

They got some easy stuff wrong on literally half the players they listed. And I mean easy stuff that anyone would notice if they actually watched these kids play.

I like Longenhagen and think he does a pretty good job of reviewing prospects overall.  He may not hit on all of them, but I prefer his reviews to a number of other public ones that I see.  I think he's fair and has good perspective.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Anyone catch Jose Suarez's 4 war KATOH projection? 

Came here to say - I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to KATOH projections but I thought they were fascinating, if I'm interpreting them correctly. 

It doesn't seem like they're as high on Adell being a superstar, where it seems to feel Jones has a good chance to be a decent major leaguer. It feels Marsh is a big shot at busting, but if he does make it, he'll be a solid regular - but not much more or less. As I read this, I thought it was just based on what level they were at, but it felt pretty strongly that Maitan would get some decent playing time. Most interesting to me was Leonardo Rivas, who had a pretty decent chance at the 20+ WAR. They were very high on Suarez achieving success in the majors, and Luke Bard looks like has a nice shot at a good career.

[Second Base]

49 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I like Longenhagen and think he does a pretty good job of reviewing prospects overall.  He may not hit on all of them, but I prefer his reviews to a number of other public ones that I see.  I think he's fair and has good perspective.

I don't mind him, it's just there are some glaringly inaccurate reports. Incorrect velocity readings, wrong background, etc...

[Warfarin]

Just now, Scotty@AW said:

I don't mind him, it's just there are some glaringly inaccurate reports. Incorrect velocity readings, wrong background, etc...

This is true.  We have to keep in mind the quality of the reports at Fangraphs will not be as good as yours, as they are trying to power through 30 teams and probably not devoting as much time per team.  This is why your insight is, first and foremost, most appreciated. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Came here to say - I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to KATOH projections but I thought they were fascinating, if I'm interpreting them correctly. 

It doesn't seem like they're as high on Adell being a superstar, where it seems to feel Jones has a good chance to be a decent major leaguer. It feels Marsh is a big shot at busting, but if he does make it, he'll be a solid regular - but not much more or less. As I read this, I thought it was just based on what level they were at, but it felt pretty strongly that Maitan would get some decent playing time. Most interesting to me was Leonardo Rivas, who had a pretty decent chance at the 20+ WAR. They were very high on Suarez achieving success in the majors, and Luke Bard looks like has a nice shot at a good career.

It's a mathematical estimation of a players average total future success based on player comps. The biggest strike against any player is how far away from the majors they are currently because so many things can happen between Rookie ball and the major leagues. Obviously most of these guys are good bets to bust, but the real interesting data is in the tail of the graph - what the likely outcome is for a player if he doesn't bust. 

A guy like Suarez - statistically - has a good shot at contributing to the roster over the course of several seasons. It's a much higher probability of contributing than a guy like Adell or even Jones apparently.

[UndertheHalo]

I really enjoyed reading through this.  Very excited obviously about our top 6 or 7 guys in particular.   It really did hammer home to me though that our system still is very thin despite the great progress that has been made.  And there’s no doubt that in a short time a lot of ground has been made up.  A couple more good drafts will be pretty critical for us.  Hopefully Eppler stays the course and allows that to happen.  We really can’t afford to trade much out of our top 10.  With very few exceptions.  

[ettin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Came here to say - I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to KATOH projections but I thought they were fascinating, if I'm interpreting them correctly. 

It doesn't seem like they're as high on Adell being a superstar, where it seems to feel Jones has a good chance to be a decent major leaguer. It feels Marsh is a big shot at busting, but if he does make it, he'll be a solid regular - but not much more or less. As I read this, I thought it was just based on what level they were at, but it felt pretty strongly that Maitan would get some decent playing time. Most interesting to me was Leonardo Rivas, who had a pretty decent chance at the 20+ WAR. They were very high on Suarez achieving success in the majors, and Luke Bard looks like has a nice shot at a good career.

KATOH is basing their projection on where they are now. Prospects in the lower levels will have extremely conservative projections that mostly assume little to no MLB production.

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 hours ago, krAbs said:

Are those comparisons on the bottom legit? Are they really saying we have McCutchen, Ortiz, and Cabrera talents in the minors? Or is that more of "if everything pans out with these players, they could look like this" kinda thing?

If things go right, we get the girl in the ad. But most likely at least a few of these guys will turn out to be some other chick. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Cutch is a very accurate comp for Jones though. Same body type, same great intangibles and love for the game and similar skill set. Obviously, Cutch had a three year period where he was just flat out better than those around him, and I don't anticipate that happening with Jahmai (especially with Mike Trout around), but I think the 20 HR, 30 SB type of outfielder is who Jahmai can become. It really wouldn't surprise me, and it shouldn't surprise anyone.

I don't think it'll happen, I think Jahmai is more 15 HR 25 SB type, but the skill is there.

Which would still be a nice add. If he and adell both turn in to those types, and at least one of the infield guys pans out with some pop (and trout is still here), were gonna be in good shape.

I hope some of our pitching starts to come along (draft wise)

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Have you actually seen Matt Thaiss in the last year? The kid is stacked. He's looking like Trout. Saying he needs to add muscle is a little like saying Richards needs to throw the ball harder.

I LOLed -- partially because I disagree with him and partially because in one breath you're calling them out for being wildly inaccurate, in the next physically comparing Thaiss to Mike Trout and referring to him being stacked...     Right off.  Mike Trout is 6'3-6'4  and 235-240...   Thaiss is 6' 195....   their lower halves are not anything alike....  If you needed a good physical comp for filled out Thaiss -- that person might be Kole Calhoun...       I just sorta Giggled..

I get the point youre trying to make -- but, you're a bit guilty of the same thing...   Dude will never have the body to comp to Trout.

[Inside Pitch]

36 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Which would still be a nice add. If he and adell both turn in to those types, and at least one of the infield guys pans out with some pop (and trout is still here), were gonna be in good shape.

I hope some of our pitching starts to come along (draft wise)

What Im happy about is just having guys like them in the first place..   Nobody was ever going to look at a guy like Sanger and project him to be a star level player.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Looks like there really high on C rod's stuff. It's interesting that they are giving Adell, Jones and marsh that low of a hit tool. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Looks like there really high on C rod's stuff. It's interesting that they are giving Adell, Jones and marsh that low of a hit tool. 

How are you reading the numbers?  In Adell's case they are saying his hit tool is 20/50 paired with 50/70 power...    The lower end numbers are where they are currently, so basically they are saying he's a 50 hit tool, 70 power tool if he reaches his potential.   

Those numbers are really pretty strong.   Jam Jones with a top end 60 hit tool is pretty awesome.

[Hubs]

7 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Have you actually seen Matt Thaiss in the last year? The kid is stacked. He's looking like Trout. Saying he needs to add muscle is a little like saying Richards needs to throw the ball harder.

If he's jacked then why did he Slug sub .400? Is it truly about his swing? Does he pop up too much or is he just a singles hitter?

[Second Base]

17 minutes ago, Hubs said:

If he's jacked then why did he Slug sub .400? Is it truly about his swing? Does he pop up too much or is he just a singles hitter?

A. First year full year in the majors.

B. Adjusting to a much higher level of play than the ACC.

C He has a line drive oriented swing and a bit of a bat wrap.  

D. He played at two levels where his home games (and the majority of his away games in AA) were played at pitcher friendly parks. 

E. Power has never been his focus, and if he isn't striving for it, he probably won't hit them. 

F. Hasn't really developed power yet, most don't until 23-26.  

I think all of it combined explains why he sin't a power hitter.  But most of this is temporary.  He'll have more time, get comfortable, adjust and find friendlier environments.  And he'll continue to physically develop.  

Thaiss will have acceptable power someday.  He won't be a power hitter, but he won't have the OF playing him 40 feet shorter either. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

On 1/25/2018 at 1:09 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

If things go right, we get the girl in the ad. But most likely at least a few of these guys will turn out to be some other chick. 

Or a dude.

Speaking of which....

On 1/25/2018 at 1:48 PM, Inside Pitch said:

I get the point youre trying to make -- but, you're a bit guilty of the same thing...   Dude will never have the body to comp to Trout.

This is a little gay.

(Not that there's anything wrong with it)