FanGraphs - Angels Top 20 Prospects

[bloodbrother]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

[Warfarin]

20 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

Certainly quite a bit different, even compared to last year's report.  Definitely enjoyed reading Ohtani's scouting report.  We definitely have some good depth in SP and OF, at least at the lower levels.  

[tdawg87]

[Warfarin]

I do enjoy reading Fangraphs' assessment of our prospects.  I think at times, as fans, we have a more optimistic view of all our prospects, because we see glimmers of hope of what they could be.  When I see Longenhagen give strong remarks though, I know I can be excited

The future looks bright.  Our next wave of talent is a few years away admittedly, but Eppler has been doing a good job of plugging up spots with short-term commitments (Kinsler, Valbuena, etc) while biding time for the wave of talent to arrive.

[totdprods]

Awesome seeing guys like Soriano and Pena getting some love and rankings that high.

[floplag]

I find it very interesting how they appear to be fast tracking Thaiss.  His numbers dont look that over whelming, what am i missing here? 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Anyone catch Jose Suarez's 4 war KATOH projection? 

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, floplag said:

I find it very interesting how they appear to be fast tracking Thaiss.  His numbers dont look that over whelming, what am i missing here? 

It's pretty impressive he's climbed so fast and been so productive. Nothing that's outstanding, but very solid. I think it just proves how advanced he is and how much of a natural hitter he is. He's looked great in ST too. 

Honestly would not surprise me if he's in Anaheim sometime this season. Ward too.

[Hubs]

Thaiss was a college bat, drafted in 2016. He's in his age 22 season and was one of the best available college bats at the time he was drafted.

Cron was a similar player by a lot of measures, drafted one pick later (#17) in 2011. He debuted in the majors in 2014, approximately three years after he was drafted. Cron did one year of rookie ball (2011), one year in High A (2012), one at AA (2013) and then split 2014 between AAA and the Majors.

Thaiss spent his rookie year in Orem and also Low A. Moved to AA in his second year, so he's advancing quicker than Cron. I don't think he's ready for the show, but he will almost certainly be called up in September, with an eye on 2019 platooning with Pujols at 1st, as Valbuena is a free agent as well as Cron being a possible non-tender.

[Warfarin]

22 minutes ago, floplag said:

I find it very interesting how they appear to be fast tracking Thaiss.  His numbers dont look that over whelming, what am i missing here? 

For what it's worth, Longenhagen's scouting report on him isn't particularly good.  He projects him to be a fringe-average regular.  Obviously we, as fans, see potential and hope he can develop into at 15-20 HR, 360+ OBP player.  If he ends up only being a 10HR/sub 800 OPS guy though, that's a tough sell at 1B, especially if his defense at 1B proves to just be average / not elite.

[krAbs]

Are those comparisons on the bottom legit? Are they really saying we have McCutchen, Ortiz, and Cabrera talents in the minors? Or is that more of "if everything pans out with these players, they could look like this" kinda thing?

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Are those comparisons on the bottom legit? Are they really saying we have McCutchen, Ortiz, and Cabrera talents in the minors? Or is that more of "if everything pans out with these players, they could look like this" kinda thing?

I saw that. Wow, and I thought we were optimistic in our prospect reports.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Rank	Prospect	Comp
2	Jo Adell	Carl Everett
3	Jahmai Jones	Andrew McCutchen
4	Brandon Marsh	David Ortiz
5	Kevin Maitan	Miguel Cabrera

 

Looking at the other reports they have done on teams in the NL central, they all have some household names on them, but none can really match that top four. Other teams have a few Jorge Posada's, a Jose Bautista, Bobby Abreu, Matt Holliday comps tossed in.

[Hubs]

I think we'll almost certainly see Hermosillio, and then possibly Ward and Thaiss in September from the position player side and of course Ohtani to open the season and likely Barria and definitely Paredes and Bard in 2018.

I always wonder about the ETA as does that mean first Major League AB, or does it mean regular playing time in MLB.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Rank	Prospect	Comp
2	Jo Adell	Carl Everett
3	Jahmai Jones	Andrew McCutchen
4	Brandon Marsh	David Ortiz
5	Kevin Maitan	Miguel Cabrera

I am admittedly having a little bit of trouble understanding how a potentially fairly good defensive CF (Marsh)'s "Comp" is David Ortiz, lol.  I am guessing maybe just with regards to his offensive profile.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Hubs said:

I think we'll almost certainly see Hermosillio, and then possibly Ward and Thaiss in September from the position player side and of course Ohtani to open the season and likely Barria and definitely Paredes and Bard in 2018.

I always wonder about the ETA as does that mean first Major League AB, or does it mean regular playing time in MLB.

Probably means when they'll first break-in to the majors.

I'm guessing Hermosillo is a definite bet.  Thasis and Ward are possibilities, but I'm not so sure they will reach the majors this year.

Ohtani is a slam-dunk, and I do think it's extremely likely Barria gets some time this year, as he pitched well in AAA and is on the 40-man roster currently.

Bard *HAS* to be on the team all year or gets offered back to the Twins.  

[krAbs]

7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Rank	Prospect	Comp
2	Jo Adell	Carl Everett
3	Jahmai Jones	Andrew McCutchen
4	Brandon Marsh	David Ortiz
5	Kevin Maitan	Miguel Cabrera

 

Looking at the other reports they have done on teams in the NL central, they all have some household names on them, but none can really match that top four. Other teams have a few Jorge Posada's, a Jose Bautista, Bobby Abreu, Matt Holliday comps tossed in.

2021
2020
2020
2022

That's going to be a lot of fun. Especially 2020.

[Angel Oracle]

I like that outside of Ohtani, all 17 top prospects are no older than 22.    That is a faaaar cry from the past decade.

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Probably means when they'll first break-in to the majors.

I'm guessing Hermosillo is a definite bet.  Thasis and Ward are possibilities, but I'm not so sure they will reach the majors this year.

Ohtani is a slam-dunk, and I do think it's extremely likely Barria gets some time this year, as he pitched well in AAA and is on the 40-man roster currently.

Bard *HAS* to be on the team all year or gets offered back to the Twins.  

My thought on Ward and Thaiss is that September, we can always use another C, and he's in the same mold defensively as Maldonado and Rivera, so if he's been in AAA most of the season, that makes sense to me. Perez remember doesn't have options so will be moved in ST or outrighted to AAA and Graterol is likely to be the starter in AAA. Both Rivera and Maldonado will be FA in 2019, so it's not a bad idea to see what you have in Ward defensively in Major League action.

Thaiss obviously has a much more crowded position, but again, he's been a fast mover in the system, and I could see him being a platoon guy in 2019, but they won't likely put a rookie in a position like 1st full time, as there are so many options always. But Valbuena is a FA likely (he has a team option) and Cron could be a casualty of playing time in 2018. The other note is he is left handed, so that helps the balance of our lineup, and no one is likely in front of him at AAA for playing time.

These two guys will play most of the year in AAA, but with injuries could be up if needed. They are the two closest hitters along with Hermosillo to the majors.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

My thought on Ward and Thaiss is that September, we can always use another C, and he's in the same mold defensively as Maldonado and Rivera, so if he's been in AAA most of the season, that makes sense to me. Perez remember doesn't have options so will be moved in ST or outrighted to AAA and Graterol is likely to be the starter in AAA. Both Rivera and Maldonado will be FA in 2019, so it's not a bad idea to see what you have in Ward defensively in Major League action.

Thaiss obviously has a much more crowded position, but again, he's been a fast mover in the system, and I could see him being a platoon guy in 2019, but they won't likely put a rookie in a position like 1st full time, as there are so many options always. But Valbuena is a FA likely (he has a team option) and Cron could be a casualty of playing time in 2018. The other note is he is left handed, so that helps the balance of our lineup, and no one is likely in front of him at AAA for playing time.

These two guys will play most of the year in AAA, but with injuries could be up if needed. They are the two closest hitters along with Hermosillo to the majors.

With Thasis, I'd like to slow him down a bit and try to get him to focus on launch angle.  If we can get him to generate a bit more pop, then that'll go a long way towards improving his value.  I am not too high on Thasis right now, but I do think he can improve his ceiling.  There's no need to rush him.  We do have Valbuena this season, and if we want, next season too (the aforementioned option that you said).  We can afford to be patient with him and have him work on things that'll help improve his ceiling / future major league production.

[Chuck]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I am admittedly having a little bit of trouble understanding how a potentially fairly good defensive CF (Marsh)'s "Comp" is David Ortiz, lol.  I am guessing maybe just with regards to his offensive profile.

I think Fangraphs should stick to stats and graphs, not player comparisons. 

[Hubs]

I think Thaiss just needs to muscle up. He can add weight and pop that way. But I don't like his sub .400 slugging percentage either, it should be closer to .500 or .600 in SLC to earn a big league job. But if he's defensively ready and can hit for average and low strike outs, he could turn into a decent backup sooner than later.

[Docwaukee]

those comps are computer generated

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahalanobis_distance

[Warfarin]

47 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think Thaiss just needs to muscle up. He can add weight and pop that way. But I don't like his sub .400 slugging percentage either, it should be closer to .500 or .600 in SLC to earn a big league job. But if he's defensively ready and can hit for average and low strike outs, he could turn into a decent backup sooner than later.

Yeah, that'll be key.  He hasn't been at 1B for long, so I'm fine with him taking more time to develop.  So far, reports/projections sound average at best.  If he reaches the majors and posts a sub-400 SLG as you said, then he's not really a viable major leaguer, and maybe more of a "call-up, call-down" kind of guy.  I am not too worried about his development though.  Even if he proves to be a bust, the current market shows us how easy it is to acquire a power-hitting 1B.  They're cheap right now.  We could probably offer LoMo 2/20 and get him fairly easily, if we wanted to.

[Dave Saltzer]

Yeah, our farm system has come a long way. It's good to see.

Re: Thaiss

I like the player, but comparing him and Cron is rather faulty. Thaiss is 6'0" and the interesting line with him in the writeup is "some scouts are bothered by the undersized target he presents for infielders."

 

Cron, by comparison is listed at 6'4"--a noticeable difference.

 

While Cron is taller than Thaiss, Cron has far more power than Thaiss. Cron, I believe was scouted as a 70 power, and Thaiss is not that. However, if plate discipline were scouted, Thaiss would be far superior. Look at their age 22 seasons at IE. Thaiss had a 40:59 BB:K ratio in 84 games, whereas Cron had a 17:72 ratio in 129 games. Cron will put up more power over a season, but with more feast and famine stretches, whereas Thaiss appears to be more steady and consistent, albeit with far fewer homers, but probably more doubles.