Go get Chris Archer

[WeatherWonk]

When deciding whether we give up some of our highest prospects for a front-line starter, we need to keep in mind the probable desire of Angel ownership and management to be competitive within the window of Trout being here. Are these prospects going to mature to complement Trout before 2021? Our top prospects seem to be OFers and, barring a trade of Calhoun or Upton, there is no place for them until 2020.

Yes, we are wild card competitive and yes, WCs have won the World Series in the last 20 years. But this play-in, WC scenario is much different than the one before it. 

How much weight does management put into the "win now" mentality, with Trout on board? I dont know. Maybe all Arte wants to do is field a team that gets him 3 million butts in seats.

[Blarg]

The question isn't whether the prospects will contribute in the Trout window. The question is, will there be any talent should Trout not sign an extension? 

The only reasonable decision is to make the Franchise productive as possible for decades instead of years. Flushing the minors for a pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm and trending downward isn't even close to sensible.

I think Archer is a good target but not at the expense of the top tier of the minor league talent.

[Warfarin]

43 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

When deciding whether we give up some of our highest prospects for a front-line starter, we need to keep in mind the probable desire of Angel ownership and management to be competitive within the window of Trout being here. Are these prospects going to mature to complement Trout before 2021? Our top prospects seem to be OFers and, barring a trade of Calhoun or Upton, there is no place for them until 2020.

Yes, we are wild card competitive and yes, WCs have won the World Series in the last 20 years. But this play-in, WC scenario is much different than the one before it. 

How much weight does management put into the "win now" mentality, with Trout on board? I dont know. Maybe all Arte wants to do is field a team that gets him 3 million butts in seats.

Another point to consider is that while we see a lot of potential in our top prospects,  they are all pretty much in the low minors right now.  Jones is in high A, Adell and Marsh in the rookie leagues, Canning hasn't even pitched, etc.  We see a lot of potential in them, but given how far away they are from the majors, there's a lot more risk involved for another team with regards to acquiring them.  A team like the Rays will want to trade Archer for prospects who are mainly excelling in the high minors, helping eliminate some (not all) future risk involved with those prospects.  

[ettin]

Whether you think Archer is a #1 or #2 type starter or whether you are unsure about the impact to our farm system (it would be a big hit by the way, at least two of our top prospects plus more) or our future, one thing is absolutely clear: Archer would have a very minimal impact to team payroll which would allow the Angels to still extend Trout while adding a top-tier talent (a la Ohtani).

I'm not sure what the price would be but it may be too great for the Angels to absorb, probably. Prior to the Ohtani deal he was a prime target in my mind.

[Docwaukee]

I've said this before.  Archer is that guy you keep waiting for.  He was on his way to being a true #1 after 2015 and has been an average performer the last two years.  But oh those peripherals.  I am a metrics guy, but at some point the actual performance outweighs what it should be.  

Metrics are important to find that under the radar guy who you'd expect to perform better in the right situation and you can get him on the cheap.  They're not supposed to be used to justify paying full pop retail for a guy who hasn't actually performed at the level you are paying for.  

The peripherals and metrics justify going after someone like Chatwood, Sabathia, Lackey, Kevin Gausman etc. because they would cost far less.  Mike Leake was actually a decent play in this regard (even though I hate to say it.) 

If you are gonna sell the farm, you are better off going with Danny Duffy, Stroman, Michael Fulmer.  Hell, I'd rather have Snell for whatever it'd take to get Archer.  

And if you sell the farm for that one guy, you may as well grab Darvish.  

Darvish, Ohtani, Richards, Duffy and Heaney.  

Holy donkey balls that would be sweet.  Grab Wade Davis and start printing tickets.  

 

[WeatherWonk]

I am still amazed that Heaney makes it into so many discussions, involving our top five starters. The guy has shown me absolutely nothing, really. Yet he always seems to be ahead of Shoemaker and Bridwell, who have at least performed at a high level for an extended period in a season. Heaney has never done that. 105 fairly decent innings in 2015 is it. 

One thing is for sure. This is a season of revelation for so many of the young Angel starters. We will learn much about our pitching future in 2018. Tropeano, Heaney, Skaggs and even the possible return of 2014 Shoemaker and Richards are questions that need to be answered, once and for all.

Bridwell, too. Was last year a fluke? At least we have lots of time to see where he is at. 

[totdprods]

15 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Basically, the question is:  Is Archer at 4.25mil AAV x2yrs + 8.25mil AAV x2yrs - various top prospects greater than Darvish at 20mil+ AAV over 5 years?  Given those two options, my choice is option C:  neither.

 I like Darvish, but not at what I assume his price tag will be (5+ years, 20mil+ per year), at least with regards to where we currently are as a team.  If I felt we were a Yu Darvish away from a championship, then yeah, go for it.  But considering Arte wants to stay below the luxury tax level, and also considering that signing Darvish would mean we have no more money for anyone, then I'd rather not go that route.  

I can't say I'd be comfortable with that contract either...but, I'd think adding Darvish would give us a legitimate shot at a championship.

It'd be expensive, but when it comes to our rotation, it's one of the cheapest portions of our team and the relative cheapness of Ohtani and the rest of our depth really offsets one player like Yu's cost. It does probably tap us out for '18 on paying to fix other parts of the team, such as the bench, bullpen, and general 40-man depth, but a fairly sizable chunk of salary comes off next offseason in Kinsler ($11m), Richards ($~7-8m), Johnson ($4.5m), potentially Valbuena ($8.5m '19 option or $500k buyout), and Maldonado all hitting free agency with guys like Alvarez, Wood, Cron, J.C. Ramirez all possibly on the chopping block as well. Can deal from the Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Bedrosian, and even Calhoun part of the roster to clear money too, with most of those guys having potential in-house replacements arriving in '19. 

I was pretty against pursuing Arrieta or Darvish early in the offseason but I'm coming around to the idea of it, to be honest. It does hamper our ability to add more to the pen and puts us at risk a bit on the offensive side if Cozart, Kinsler, or Pujols don't contribute as hoped, but it really solidifies the rotation, and gives us SP depth to deal from mid-season for offensive help. Could always move guys like Skaggs and Shoe into the pen and see if they could turn into Andrew Miller and reliever versions of Norris or Blanton.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Four years of control makes Archer pretty unattainable. 

It also means you can’t get him for Shoemaker or Heaney or Skaggs. It would be all prospects, probably 4 of the top 15 or something like that. 

[Second Base]

I dreamt last night that the Angels inked Darvish for 6/115.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

I am still amazed that Heaney makes it into so many discussions, involving our top five starters. The guy has shown me absolutely nothing, really. Yet he always seems to be ahead of Shoemaker and Bridwell, who have at least performed at a high level for an extended period in a season. Heaney has never done that. 105 fairly decent innings in 2015 is it. 

One thing is for sure. This is a season of revelation for so many of the young Angel starters. We will learn much about our pitching future in 2018. Tropeano, Heaney, Skaggs and even the possible return of 2014 Shoemaker and Richards are questions that need to be answered, once and for all.

Bridwell, too. Was last year a fluke? At least we have lots of time to see where he is at. 

Heaney had a 3.49 ERA over 18 major league starts in 2015. And then he had Tommy John surgery. He rushed back last year, but I think most pitchers struggle in their first month or two back from TJ, so I wouldn’t read much into it. If you’re lining the pitchers up based on ceiling, he’d be 3rd, Behind Ohtani and Richards.

[krAbs]

57 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Heaney had a 3.49 ERA over 18 major league starts in 2015. And then he had Tommy John surgery. He rushed back last year, but I think most pitchers struggle in their first month or two back from TJ, so I wouldn’t read much into it. If you’re lining the pitchers up based on ceiling, he’d be 3rd, Behind Ohtani and Richards.

You would put Heaney's ceiling above Skagg's and Shoe's?

[wopphil]

59 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Heaney had a 3.49 ERA over 18 major league starts in 2015. And then he had Tommy John surgery. He rushed back last year, but I think most pitchers struggle in their first month or two back from TJ, so I wouldn’t read much into it. If you’re lining the pitchers up based on ceiling, he’d be 3rd, Behind Ohtani and Richards.

In other words, a trade centered around Heaney as the primary piece isn't totally far fetched? Add one of Jones or Adell and you have a pretty good foundation for a trade package.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I dreamt last night that the Angels inked Darvish for 6/115.

Inked Darvish

[Second Base]

21 minutes ago, wopphil said:

In other words, a trade centered around Heaney as the primary piece isn't totally far fetched? Add one of Jones or Adell and you have a pretty good foundation for a trade package.

In other words, Heaney is going to be an inexpensive mid rotation starter for a few years, which is something we seriously need. The fact that he's left handed is a bonus too.

[Second Base]

Just now, ten ocho recon scout said:

Inked Darvish

Brilliant!

[Stradling]

27 minutes ago, krAbs said:

You would put Heaney's ceiling above Skagg's and Shoe's?

Absolutely above Shoe

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Heaney had a 3.49 ERA over 18 major league starts in 2015. And then he had Tommy John surgery. He rushed back last year, but I think most pitchers struggle in their first month or two back from TJ, so I wouldn’t read much into it. If you’re lining the pitchers up based on ceiling, he’d be 3rd, Behind Ohtani and Richards.

Agreed, but I also agree with the original post. I think before we consider more additions, we need to see what we have first. Like weatherwonk said, Bridwell could have been lightning in a bottle. Richards may reinjure, skaggs may have another setbsck, etc. Offense wise, same questions. Does simmons repeat? Does Cozart regress switching leagues, does kinsler drop off at his age, etc.

I like Heaney, im still positive on him. But until we know these guys are healthy, im being conservative.

[Vlad27Trout27]

38 minutes ago, krAbs said:

You would put Heaney's ceiling above Skagg's and Shoe's?

I would say Heaney's and Skagg's have a similar ceiling of a 2/3, But i think there is a safe bet that Heaney is going to reach his ceiling, while Skaggs is a question mark. Personally i Think Shoe lives and dies of that Spit, if its own he a top of the rotation guy, if its off your looking at at back end guy.     

Heaney- came back to early form TJ, Personally watching him it felt as if he rushed back and also was still trying to find his release point with the new delivery. Remember he has a 3- pitch comb that had a grade of 60+ and i think they still are. Command was but derailed him last year, and expect it to back and with a good release point.

Skaggs- The guy just can't stay healthy, 1st half of the season he really wasn't pitching that bad until he got hurt. Personally after watching him pitch these past few years, i've come down to 4 things that could be benefit to him. 

1. Hold the running game, add a slide step and hold the ball

2.  overcome the mental collapse, he'll give up a few Stolen bases or makes a bad pitch and you see this, just the way he acts and the next pitch he throws is out of the park.

3. Consistency, the stuff is there, i've seen him dominate line ups and than randomly he hits inning where he has ZERO feel for his pitches.

4. this just my view, i think he should mix in a few change-up to go along with  fastball. they is a really good speed difference between the two pitches and should help alot.

 

also having an improved offensive and  and defense should help our pitchers.   

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

You would put Heaney's ceiling above Skagg's and Shoe's?

I think the Angels would.

As for starting an Archer trade with Heaney, maybe. He's got 4 years of control, the same as Archer, and they are cheaper than Archer. Of course, he may be nowhere near as good as Archer. That's why you have to throw in a few other guys.

Heaney, Canning and Jones or Adell is probably something that would make the Rays listen.

[Blarg]

At that cost I would stand pat. 

[Adam]

I don't know if he'll pan out but I really like Heaney and I'd like to see how he progresses over the next couple years

[Tank]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Inked Darvish

do we really want the yukuza joining the angels? color me skeptical.

[mtangelsfan]

13 minutes ago, Tank said:

do we really want the yukuza joining the angels? color me skeptical.

Racist!

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think the Angels would.

As for starting an Archer trade with Heaney, maybe. He's got 4 years of control, the same as Archer, and they are cheaper than Archer. Of course, he may be nowhere near as good as Archer. That's why you have to throw in a few other guys.

Heaney, Canning and Jones or Adell is probably something that would make the Rays listen.

Jeff one of my concerns is, in my opinion, none of the Angels pitching prospects have a very high ceiling.  Canning maybe a #3?

So even if you gave the Rays four pitching prospects for Archer, it makes sense for the Angels to do it.

Does it really make any sense for the Angels to hoard pitching prospects that all end up #4s and #5s?

And this is where the question is really answered.  Do the Rays really think they are going to be able to actually compete?  If they legitimately want to build a true winner, the Angels probably are not trade partners because of the modest ceilings of the Angel pitching prospects.  But If they want a high number of respectable, controllable bodies to contribute to a team that is "competitive" then the Angels are potential trade partners.

If the Rays did land a couple of truly dynamic budding stars, can they even build around them?  If not then wouldn't they be interested in getting 80% of a future rotation for Archer?

[gotbeer]

We should get Archer just for the sweet meme's that will come out of it.  AO's head might explode with all the new material he'd have.