Go get Chris Archer

[Dtwncbad]

Just go get him.  The Angels have more than enough ammunition to make a deal without it really hurting the future.

Give them one or more of the controllable major league starters and add prospects not in the Angels top 10.

It would be hard for them to turn down two guys to put in their rotation plus a couple of prospects.

I dont want to argue my personal choices for who I would be willing to send to TB.  Rather, my point is the Angels have lots of depth at SP now plus some pitching prospects in the rankings from #10ish to #20ish that should be enough to get it done.

Archer, Richards, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney.

That is a rotation.  Sure keep a couple if others for depth but anyone not listed in tjat rotation is surplus and should be candidates to be used to make this team better.

[Tank]

it's worth giving a call to tampa to see what they want.

we know what archer can be. hopefully he can return to what he was a few years ago, and that would be a big bonus for this team.

[Stradling]

If you can get him for Skaggs or Trop or Shoe and a few guys outside our top ten, sure do it.  My gut tells me he will cost one of those starters and 2 of our top 5 prospects.  

[krAbs]

48 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Go get Chris Archer.

Wait, how?

48 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Just go get him.

Oh.

[Blarg]

Due to Archers contract the Ray's have really zero incentive to listen to trade talks unless it's for impact cost controlled players. 

[wopphil]

I'd be fine sending Heaney, Jones, and someone in the 8 to 12 prospect range. Throw in Cron too.

[totdprods]

29 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Due to Archers contract the Ray's have really zero incentive to listen to trade talks unless it's for impact cost controlled players. 

Yep - his contract is so affordable the Rays know they can just sit back and wait for someone to really overpay, and someone will. 

The Angels do have enough to get him, but it won't get it done, not yet at least. The Rays know someone will pay more than necessary, and Eppler operates the opposite.

[Second Base]

21 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you can get him for Skaggs or Trop or Shoe and a few guys outside our top ten, sure do it.  My gut tells me he will cost one of those starters and 2 of our top 5 prospects.  

I think you're absolutely right. Pitching is extremely expensive to acquire right now and happens to be a position of strength for the Angels right now. Could you imagine if we were desperate for pitching and our options were to pay Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn? Payroll would skyrocket. 

We are fortunate to have the depth we have. Would we be better with Archer? Absolutely, everyone would. But Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe, Tropeano, Bridwell, Ramirez and Barria is solid.

So to acquire Archer, you're looking at outbidding heavy competition. Yeah, we can do it. But it would require not only eating into that pitching depth we have (Barria, Tropeano) but also a couple of our top 10's like Jahmai Jones and Matt Thaiss.

And that's probably minimum. At max it might require those prospects to be guys like Adell and Marsh.

[Blarg]

The funny part about Archer is he has a great SO/9 and BB/9 but for some reason runners keep crossing the plate. He is an innings eating monster (200+ per year) in todays 5.2 inning pitchers that only produce about 180 innings. I keep trying to find a reason why his ERA is in the 4's and it could be his support cast is just not good getting to balls in play. You don't get charged for an error if you don't have the range or positioning. 

Last year his BABHIP was .325 while his previous three seasons were all in the .295 range. That's a significant jump and his ground ball rate from about a 47% to 42% which could be attributed to the superball being used last year but his home run totals were down from 2016. There are so many conflicting stats for Archer that on one hand says he was better than previous seasons but gave up about the same amount of runs as 2016. it could simply be turf instead of natural grass giving the balls in play more life but his last two seasons he has had an ERA+ of 101 and 100.

It would be interesting to see what he could do in Anaheim with the current defense behind him. 

[Mark68]

10 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The funny part about Archer is he has a great SO/9 and BB/9 but for some reason runners keep crossing the plate. He is an innings eating monster (200+ per year) in todays 5.2 inning pitchers that only produce about 180 innings. I keep trying to find a reason why his ERA is in the 4's and it could be his support cast is just not good getting to balls in play. You don't get charged for an error if you don't have the range or positioning. 

Last year his BABHIP was .325 while his previous three seasons were all in the .295 range. That's a significant jump and his ground ball rate from about a 47% to 42% which could be attributed to the superball being used last year but his home run totals were down from 2016. There are so many conflicting stats for Archer that on one hand says he was better than previous seasons but gave up about the same amount of runs as 2016. it could simply be turf instead of natural grass giving the balls in play more life but his last two seasons he has had an ERA+ of 101 and 100.

It would be interesting to see what he could do in Anaheim with the current defense behind him. 

I think he's one of those special cases where a change of scenery will almost certainly help him. Get him out of the AL East, in front of our projected defense, and with his talent, he can be that ace starting pitcher we've been looking for.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

Wait, how?

Oh.

The answer was in the post.  Use SP depth and prospects.

Should I use up another 35 lines proposing all the possible packages the Angels could offer?  Or is it OK to post a thread focused on the simple point the Angels could really use this guy and have the resources to get him?

[Blarg]

35 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I think he's one of those special cases where a change of scenery will almost certainly help him. Get him out of the AL East, in front of our projected defense, and with his talent, he can be that ace starting pitcher we've been looking for.

I think Richardson and Ohtani are the Angels projected aces but adding Archer sure would make that a hell of a 1-3. I still don't think the Rays are moving him without a knock your socks off deal. 

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The answer was in the post.  Use SP depth and prospects.

Should I use up another 35 lines proposing all the possible packages the Angels could offer?  Or is it OK to post a thread focused on the simple point the Angels could really use this guy and have the resources to get him?

No you don’t need to do that, but you might be the only one that thinks we can get him for our prospects ranked 10-20 and our major league pitchers. 

[HaloCory22]

I stopped at "1/2 controllable players and maybe some prospects below our Top 10"

 

Pretty sure the Rays would start laughing and hang the phone up only to call Eppler back, take a deep breath, then start laughing uncontrollably again.

 

5.2, 3.2, 4.6 WAR seasons the past 3 years. Ks 10/11 per 9, walks under 3 per 9. Just needs to limit the long ball which could be done in the West. Now, he's not Strasberg or Kershaw obviously but there will definitely be teams calling on Archer that have a lot more to offer than we do. I want what you're smoking if you think we can get him for Tropeano, Skaggs, and #30 prospect Joe freaking Gatto.

[Warfarin]

Archer would cost, at a minimum, Jones, Adell, a young starter (Skaggs?), and a "near ready" starter (Barria), maybe even Maitan as well.  Archer is a strong #2/poor #1.  The value in Archer though is you are acquiring a guy with that kind of production who will only counts as 4.25mil AAV for the next two years, then 8.25mil/yr the two years after that (option years).  His value is through the roof, and yes, the Rays know that too.  Every team can use someone like Archer in their rotation, given his strong production and ridiculously low cost.  

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Archer would cost, at a minimum, Jones, Adell, a young starter (Skaggs?), and a "near ready" starter (Barria), maybe even Maitan as well.

And the crazy thing is the Yankees, Cubs, Astros, White Sox, Braves, Dodgers, or maybe Cardinals (or bizarrely enough, even Oakland) could all probably top that without it hitting them as hard as it would the Angels.

I think Eppler certainly could spend some prospect currency, but Archer seems beyond reach. There are better targets to use some of that ammo. Tampa also doesn't have any outstanding bad contracts we could try and leverage back with.

And it would without doubt be an overpay, which Eppler seems to totally forego. Someone like Gerrit Cole, Teheran, Duffy, Osuna, Aaron Sanchez seem more along the lines of a premium player who would command maybe a fair value deal (while still costing a haul) and are more realistic, a la Simmons for Newcomb.

[totdprods]

And, FWIW, not advocating this, but....

3-yr averages:

Archer (101 G, No TJS): 205 IP, 3.77 ERA, 107 ERA+, 3.36 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 10.8 K9

Darvish (70 G, TJS): 144 IP, 3.48 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3.33 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 10.9 K9

It's crazy how similar there numbers are. Darvish is gonna cost ya $100m+ more and is older, but he's also already gone through TJS whereas Archer still runs that risk. And zero prospects spent. Not to mention the X Factor of what Yu's influence with Ohtani could be.

In fact, if it was one or the other, I'd just sign Darvish and be done with it. Yeah it'd top out payroll and be a risky deal, but we keep farm intact and give ourselves same shot at winning that Archer would have, if not very since we keep other players for boosting the MLB club or using for deadline deals. Let Eppler work his magic on cheap pen help if Darvish maxes us out, or use some of our dozen starters in the pen. We'll clear some space next year with Kinsler, Valbuena, Johnson, and Wood going and likely one of Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Cron, Heaney, Ramirez expendable. Calhoun could be too if Jones or Hermosillo come on strong. 

[Dtwncbad]

I am a bit embarrassed because I didn't see the option years of control for Archer.  I thought it was 2 yrs of control total.

Oops.

[jordan]

I’d rather the Angels go after Gerrit Cole if they went after anyone.  He might be a tad cheaper, and I think he might be easier to re-sign due to him being a local guy.  But he is a Boras guy.  

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

And, FWIW, not advocating this, but....

3-yr averages:

Archer (101 G, No TJS): 205 IP, 3.77 ERA, 107 ERA+, 3.36 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 10.8 K9

Darvish (70 G, TJS): 144 IP, 3.48 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3.33 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 10.9 K9

It's crazy how similar there numbers are. Darvish is gonna cost ya $100m+ more and is older, but he's also already gone through TJS whereas Archer still runs that risk. And zero prospects spent. Not to mention the X Factor of what Yu's influence with Ohtani could be.

In fact, if it was one or the other, I'd just sign Darvish and be done with it. Yeah it'd top out payroll and be a risky deal, but we keep farm intact and give ourselves same shot at winning that Archer would have, if not very since we keep other players for boosting the MLB club or using for deadline deals. Let Eppler work his magic on cheap pen help if Darvish maxes us out, or use some of our dozen starters in the pen. We'll clear some space next year with Kinsler, Valbuena, Johnson, and Wood going and likely one of Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Cron, Heaney, Ramirez expendable. Calhoun could be too if Jones or Hermosillo come on strong. 

Basically, the question is:  Is Archer at 4.25mil AAV x2yrs + 8.25mil AAV x2yrs - various top prospects greater than Darvish at 20mil+ AAV over 5 years?  Given those two options, my choice is option C:  neither.

 I like Darvish, but not at what I assume his price tag will be (5+ years, 20mil+ per year), at least with regards to where we currently are as a team.  If I felt we were a Yu Darvish away from a championship, then yeah, go for it.  But considering Arte wants to stay below the luxury tax level, and also considering that signing Darvish would mean we have no more money for anyone, then I'd rather not go that route.  

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Archer would cost, at a minimum, Jones, Adell, a young starter (Skaggs?), and a "near ready" starter (Barria), maybe even Maitan as well.  Archer is a strong #2/poor #1.  The value in Archer though is you are acquiring a guy with that kind of production who will only counts as 4.25mil AAV for the next two years, then 8.25mil/yr the two years after that (option years).  His value is through the roof, and yes, the Rays know that too.  Every team can use someone like Archer in their rotation, given his strong production and ridiculously low cost.  

Archer has a career ERA+ of 108 which does not make him either a strong #2 or anywhere close to #1. He has the potential but for some reason his real numbers say different the last two seasons. So your package is an over pay for basically JC Ramirez's production last season. I know, weird but true. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Archer has a career ERA+ of 108 which does not make him either a strong #2 or anywhere close to #1. He has the potential but for some reason his real numbers say different the last two seasons. So your package is an over pay for basically JC Ramirez's production last season. I know, weird but true. 

Take him out of the AL East, put him on the mound with our defense and elite defensive catcher, and you're going to see much different results.

That aside, his FIP and xFIP are in the mid 3s, which is considerably better than Ramirez's mid 4s.

But again, all that said, I would not pay the price associated with Archer.  I'd rather keep building from within and cultivating our ever-improving farm system.

[Blarg]

I would consider paying the price in line with his past 2 seasons and the value of his contract moving forward. I doubt the Rays acknowledge that offer.

[Angel Oracle]

I don’t doubt that leaving the AL East would be good for Archer.

But it gets back to the haul that TB will likely ask for in exchange.

Trading prospects here and there is fine.   Trading three key prospects though is not the smartest strategy.

 

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I don’t doubt that leaving the AL East would be good for Archer.

But it gets back to the haul that TB will likely ask for in exchange.

Trading prospects here and there is fine.   Trading three key prospects though is not the smartest strategy.

 

You are right, the Angels would not be trading for a 28 year old Scherzer, Verlander or Strasberg. This is a second tier pitcher by total career stats.