The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[WeatherWonk]

6 hours ago, DMVol said:

I brought that up earlier, as the only real way they'd consider signing Moose....move Valbuena's money first....but I think the consensus was that his value isn't close to 8 million....just not sure anybody would take him on unless you included a good prospect in the deal or ate more than a million or two of the salary...

The Yankees would have been the ideal trade partner for Valbuena.............until they acquired Drury. Valbuena could easily reach 30 HRs if he played regularly in Yankee Stadium. His one year contract would have given Andujar the time he needs in the minors for one more year.

[bloodbrother]

 

[DMVol]

20 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

 

Makes sense....I might take 2 or 3 years if KC offers....not sure his value will be greater next winter....

[WeaverFever]

1 minute ago, DMVol said:

Makes sense....I might take 2 or 3 years if KC offers....not sure his value will be greater next winter....

Maybe not. But we might value him more... 

[DMVol]

4 minutes ago, WeaverFever said:

Maybe not. But we might value him more... 

Depends....How does Moose follow up last year? Does Cozart play well at 3b and do you want to keep him there?  

[bloodbrother]

looks like the 1yr deals are now on the table.

 

[Stradling]

Moustakas one year $5.5 million with incentives that could make it $7.7 million.   A second year mutual option of $15 million. 

[WeaverFever]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Depends....How does Moose follow up last year? Does Cozart play well at 3b and do you want to keep him there?  

Yes. Many question marks here. Will Kinsler be a stop gap to go after someone next year? Time will tell. 

 

For that price I would have loved to see Mous at worst a bench player for us. Similar to Reddick/Beltran were last year for the Stros. 

[beatlesrule]

Here's what everyone is asking Moose

 

So is Moose for 6.5 million on a year deal and the draft pick cost better than Cozart for 3/38 and no draft pick?

[Blarg]

Absolutely not. 

[floplag]

Really unsure who to blame in this one between Mous and Boras.  I think the very fact he was with Boras ruined any chance of us ever making a play, but what he got was astonishingly low. 
Setup guys got better deals. 

[Stradling]

I have no problem blaming the player.  The agent works for the player.  Just like people who wonder who to blame for Scioscia having so much power on the Angels, it isn’t Scioscia’s fault, it is Arte’s fault.  He is the one that gave him the power.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, WeaverFever said:

Yes. Many question marks here. Will Kinsler be a stop gap to go after someone next year? Time will tell. 

 

For that price I would have loved to see Mous at worst a bench player for us. Similar to Reddick/Beltran were last year for the Stros. 

The issue with Moustakas was as much about the loss of international and draft monies as it was anything he would have cost.   Eppler seems pretty committed to making the team better, just not at the expense of adding to the player development going on.   That may change after three drafts, but it seemed highly unlikely going into the offseason and even less so now.

[Inside Pitch]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

Really unsure who to blame in this one between Mous and Boras.  I think the very fact he was with Boras ruined any chance of us ever making a play, but what he got was astonishingly low. 
Setup guys got better deals. 

The market didn't buy into the juiced ball inflated power enough to look beyond his out-making tendencies on offense.

Posting a career worst walk rate in your walk year doesn't really instill confidence about your future among saber inclined organizations..   Outside of SF, all the big money teams are pretty heavily into advance metrics.

He would have made cake in the 80/90s...

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

The issue with Moustakas was as much about the loss of international and draft monies as it was anything he would have cost.   Eppler seems pretty committed to making the team better, just not at the expense of adding to the player development going on.   That may change after three drafts, but it seemed highly unlikely going into the offseason and even less so now.

Also he can only receive one Qualifying Offer so he won't be burdened by that next year, particularly since the Royals are almost assuredly going to trade him at the deadline which would also nullify a QO if he were even eligible for one.

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, SuperTroopers said:

I have no problem blaming the player.  The agent works for the player.  Just like people who wonder who to blame for Scioscia having so much power on the Angels, it isn’t Scioscia’s fault, it is Arte’s fault.  He is the one that gave him the power.

In the end it's the players fault for picking the agent, but Boras screwed this one up. His job is to read the market and get a good deal. Players aren't experts at this.

It's as much Moustakas's fault as it is your fault when your CPA messes up your taxes. Sure he works for you, but he didn't do his job on something he's an expert in and you're not.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, SuperTroopers said:

I have no problem blaming the player.  The agent works for the player.  Just like people who wonder who to blame for Scioscia having so much power on the Angels, it isn’t Scioscia’s fault, it is Arte’s fault.  He is the one that gave him the power.

The agent in this case works for too many players, conflict of interest.  

[DMVol]

11 hours ago, floplag said:

Really unsure who to blame in this one between Mous and Boras.  I think the very fact he was with Boras ruined any chance of us ever making a play, but what he got was astonishingly low. 
Setup guys got better deals. 

I don't think you can fairly assign any blame unless you know what, if any, offers were out there early in the offseason...did the Angels offer a multi year deal before we got Kinsler and Cozart?  Dunno....if there weren't any firm offers out there, not sure there is any fault or blame to go around....he just wasn't that marketable and there wasn't much either could have done....but if they passed on some decent multi year deals early (even if they were far less than most projected), then that's another matter...

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I don't think you can fairly assign any blame unless you know what, if any, offers were out there early in the offseason...did the Angels offer a multi year deal before we got Kinsler and Cozart?  Dunno....if there weren't any firm offers out there, not sure there is any fault or blame to go around....he just wasn't that marketable and there wasn't much either could have done....but if they passed on some decent multi year deals early (even if they were far less than most projected), then that's another matter...

Well recent rumors suggest we did make an offer of 3/45.  If this is true, then i think i would have to put a lot on Boras for suggesting he should wait and get better.  But then again Mous could have simply said no this is where i want to be so again i guess its both.
Strangest off season ive ever seen on so many levels. 

[totdprods]

In hindsight, Moustakas certainly would have been intriguing - either on a 3/$45m or had he waited him out for a one-year - but it doesn't take away from how satisfied I am with Kinsler and Cozart. Moose may have offered more upside and a safer bet to post sexier offensive slashes over the other two, but Cozart's versatility and Kinsler's one-year commitment negate that. Even if Moose had done well and signed for a good deal, his contract and skillset would have locked Eppler in to a more rigid roster and payroll for foreseeable future. I like the flexibility the Cozart/Kinsler deals afford us.

[eaterfan]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

In hindsight, Moustakas certainly would have been intriguing - either on a 3/$45m or had he waited him out for a one-year - but it doesn't take away from how satisfied I am with Kinsler and Cozart. Moose may have offered more upside and a safer bet to post sexier offensive slashes over the other two, but Cozart's versatility and Kinsler's one-year commitment negate that. Even if Moose had done well and signed for a good deal, his contract and skillset would have locked Eppler in to a more rigid roster and payroll for foreseeable future. I like the flexibility the Cozart/Kinsler deals afford us.

I agree that Mous will post sexier slash lines, but I don't think he has a higher offensive ceiling than Cozart. Mous has never posted an OPS+ over 120. His highest oWAR season is 4.0. Cozart posted a 141 OPS+ last season and 4.7 oWAR. People still severely underrate OBP and its importance. Mous isn't good at getting on base and his walk rate is declining. While I think using one year's worth of stats stupid to predict what will happen, I think it's fine for establishing a ceiling or upside. 

I think Cozart will be not only the better all around player, but the better hitter as well.

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I agree that Mous will post sexier slash lines, but I don't think he has a higher offensive ceiling than Cozart. Mous has never posted an OPS+ over 120. His highest oWAR season is 4.0. Cozart posted a 141 OPS+ last season and 4.7 oWAR. People still severely underrate OBP and its importance. Mous isn't good at getting on base and his walk rate is declining. While I think using one year's worth of stats stupid to predict what will happen, I think it's fine for establishing a ceiling or upside. 

I think Cozart will be not only the better all around player, but the better hitter as well.

Maybe...as good as Cozart was last year, his 3-yr slash before that was .240/.291/.376/.667 with an OPS+ of 81. Johnny Giavotella hit better than that. And Cozart will be 32 next year. 
I'm a believer that Cozart really did figure something out and may be in the same stratosphere as a Justin Turner/Daniel Murphy for the next couple of years. 

Moose will only be 29 and his 3-yr slash prior to his 'breakout' year last year (his '15 was better) was .250/.312/.428/.740 with a 100 OPS+.
His BB% dropped to 5.7% last year, but it had been steadily increasing (6.2 to 7 to 7 to 8 in the 4 years before) before that and both Cozart and Moose have matching career .305 OBPs.

Really either of them could go either way - Cozart's skillset appears to be more sustainable, but Moose does have age and a slightly better track record going for him. 

I think Cozart probably lands around a 120 OPS+ the next couple of years steadily...Moose may fluctuate between a 100 OPS+ here, a 130 OPS+ there, but land a little below Zach, averaging around 110 OPS+ during that same span. With Zach being more versatile and less volatile, I think he's the better deal.

[DMVol]

Reading the market isn't easy, especially early, but if Moose and Boras turned down 3/45, then they deserve to share the "boy did I misread that" award...

[Troll Daddy]

A’s get better ... sign Lucroy

[jordan]

13 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

A’s get better ... sign Lucroy

Lucroy is definitely better than Maxwell, but I don’t think Lucroy reaches his numbers again that he had in Milwaukee.