Valboner

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

He has a 92 OPS+. Cowart, who everyone mostly is down on, has a 93 OPS+ for reference. 

Valbuena just hasn't been any good this year. You could make almost any player on the team look amazing (except for Maldonado) if you just ignore half the season like some are doing with Valbuena's first half.

But you just brought up Cowart, who has been worse than Mathis since that 10 game fluke stretch of games. If he had as many PA's as Valbuena his numbers would be a lot worse, and he certainly wouldn't be on pace for a 2 WAR season.

[GrittyVeterans]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

But you just brought up Cowart, who has been worse than Mathis since that 10 game fluke stretch of games. If he had as many PA's as Valbuena his numbers would be a lot worse, and he certainly wouldn't be on pace for a 2 WAR season.

I don't know, I think the kid could probably put up the numbers he's put up this year over a full season. Which is a below average hitter for sure. But a gold glove type defender at 3rd. I think that would come out to about 2 WAR.

The way I see it, Valbuena is either going to be an above average hitter next year, or he shouldn't be on the roster. He has no other redeeming qualities. If he hits like he did this year next year he's just another liability all around. Can't run, meh in the field, etc...

I'm not a huge fan of either fyi

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

But you just brought up Cowart, who has been worse than Mathis since that 10 game fluke stretch of games. If he had as many PA's as Valbuena his numbers would be a lot worse, and he certainly wouldn't be on pace for a 2 WAR season.

Great point, what is the OPS+ after that 10 game stretch?    Has to be something like 50?

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Great point, what is the OPS+ after that 10 game stretch?    Has to be something like 50?

I don't know the OPS+, but his OPS is .471 since Aug 5.

Valbuena has an .878 OPS since Aug 5.

[Jeff Fletcher]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R|&hfC=&hfSea=2017|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-08-21&game_date_lt=&team=LAA&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

This basically tells you "who is swinging the bat the best for the past month."

wOBA is basically OBP but weighted so hits and extra base hits count more than walks. It's like OPS, because it combines OBP and SLG. (League average is .321.)

xwOBA is your expected wOBA based on the quality of contact when you put the ball in play.

[DMVol]

18 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R|&hfC=&hfSea=2017|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-08-21&game_date_lt=&team=LAA&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

This basically tells you "who is swinging the bat the best for the past month."

wOBA is basically OBP but weighted so hits and extra base hits count more than walks. It's like OPS, because it combines OBP and SLG. (League average is .321.)

xwOBA is your expected wOBA based on the quality of contact when you put the ball in play.

So I just ignore batting average because some stat geek tells me "who is swinging the bat best for the past month"?

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, DMVol said:

So I just ignore batting average because some stat geek tells me "who is swinging the bat best for the past month"?

You don't ignore it. It tells you something. It just doesn't tell you very much. 

And the point of looking at the expected results instead of the real results is to be predictive, for the next two weeks. 

(In Pujols' case, the expected isn't entirely predictive because the reason for the gap between what he does and what he should be doing is his speed, which is not changing. In everyone else's case, it is more likely to tell you who is headed up or down.)

[DMVol]

16 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You don't ignore it. It tells you something. It just doesn't tell you very much. 

Therein lies my problem, Jeff....Although I am not a stat geek (surprise), I certainly recognize that BA isn't everything, by any means...but I don't buy into dismissing Valbuena's awful BA because you can use his power and walks to make a case that he's really a decent hitter....I certainly appreciate that a guy who is hitting .197 but has power and walks at a decent clip is better than a .197 hitter who has no power and doesn't walk much.....but Valbuena is still hitting .197....that's awful and his power and walk rate don't overcome the BA for me....agree to disagree...

[Jobu]

Chicks dig the long ball.

[stevestevens]

His bat flips on singles, walks, and GIDP's gives our team a mental edge. 

[Jobu]

What's his CERA? I've heard that's important for Mendoza line hitters.

[Stradling]

What I learned from that is Fontana is getting the shaft.  I'm starting to believe that Scioscia hates rookies. 

#freefontana

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Therein lies my problem, Jeff....Although I am not a stat geek (surprise), I certainly recognize that BA isn't everything, by any means...but I don't buy into dismissing Valbuena's awful BA because you can use his power and walks to make a case that he's really a decent hitter....I certainly appreciate that a guy who is hitting .197 but has power and walks at a decent clip is better than a .197 hitter who has no power and doesn't walk much.....but Valbuena is still hitting .197....that's awful and his power and walk rate don't overcome the BA for me....agree to disagree...

Does that mean you'd rather have Ben Revere than Joey Gallo?

Revere: .265 BA, 1 HR, .638 OPS

Gallo: .211, 38 HRs, .883 OPS

Also, I don't think the argument is whether Valbuena is a "decent" hitter. The argument is whether he's a better hitter than Cowart. Valbuena's OPS is still below average, so he's still not "good." But he's also not as awful as .197 would suggest. That's the only point.

[Adam]

Valmala

[Blarg]

I'd rather have a second tier leadoff hitter (Escobar) than a .197 guy you have to bury back in the 7th or 8th the spot hoping he gets a hold of a pitch once every 8 games like Valbuena. The home run is kind of a false stat if the rest of the batting line is empty. And I'm not saying Revere is that guy but then again you tossed in a 4th outfielder with good defensive skills in a conversation about a poor utility infielder. 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Blarg

[Adam]

Is Escobar coming back? F

[Blarg]

We don't have this conversation if Escobar was healthy. 

[Adam]

Valbuena plays 3rd base like like Charles Barkley plays golf

[DMVol]

43 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Does that mean you'd rather have Ben Revere than Joey Gallo?

Revere: .265 BA, 1 HR, .638 OPS

Gallo: .211, 38 HRs, .883 OPS

Also, I don't think the argument is whether Valbuena is a "decent" hitter. The argument is whether he's a better hitter than Cowart. Valbuena's OPS is still below average, so he's still not "good." But he's also not as awful as .197 would suggest. That's the only point.

I didn't weigh in on the Cowart vs Valbuena argument, that wasn't my point. I'd rather have Valbuena than Cowart, at least right now (Cowart hasn't hit enough when given the chance).  I'd take Gallo over Revere for a multitude of reasons but that comparison isn't very enlightening.  .265 isn't exactly setting the world on fire, particularly with Revere's lack of OBP.  The better comparison (and debate) would be would you rather have Revere, if he were hitting .305, than Gallo?

[Blarg]

I think the real conversation is would you rather have Escobar than Valbuena in the lineup. I really don't care to talk hypotheticals about players not on our roster.

[DMVol]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

I think the real conversation is would you rather have Escobar than Valbuena in the lineup. I really don't care to talk hypotheticals about players not on our roster.

They both have flaws but I'd rather have Escobar....

[Jeff Fletcher]

11 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I didn't weigh in on the Cowart vs Valbuena argument, that wasn't my point. I'd rather have Valbuena than Cowart, at least right now (Cowart hasn't hit enough when given the chance).  I'd take Gallo over Revere for a multitude of reasons but that comparison isn't very enlightening.  .265 isn't exactly setting the world on fire, particularly with Revere's lack of OBP.  The better comparison (and debate) would be would you rather have Revere, if he were hitting .305, rather than .265, than Gallo?

How about Brandon Phillips (288/323/411) or Gallo (211/337/546)?

[Jeff Fletcher]

8 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I think the real conversation is would you rather have Escobar than Valbuena in the lineup. I really don't care to talk hypotheticals about players not on our roster.

Yunel Escobar is a hypothetical too. For now.

[Dick B Back]

How about Stanton or Calhoun?

Trumbo or Albert?

Napoli or Mathis?

I like this game.

[beatlesrule]

Come on guys.  Arte is doing the best he can.