Angels in on Turner!?!?!?!?!

[Chuck]

5 minutes ago, Billy_Ball said:

Bummer...

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31783/mlb-rumor-central-dodgers-likely-to-re-sign-justin-turner

This is from yesterday and it's the authors opinion that he'll re-sign with the Dodgers. 

[totdprods]

Turner himself also said today that he'd prefer to return to LAD but he has attractive alternatives. If the Angels are actually interested, I would imagine they fit that bill being that he wouldn't have to relocate.

[Stradling]

I am the biggest proponent of bringing him to Anaheim, but when I saw in that article that they project him to be a $100 million guy, I don't want him that bad.  At $80 million I like him, but not much above that.  

[VariousCrap]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am the biggest proponent of bringing him to Anaheim, but when I saw in that article that they project him to be a $100 million guy, I don't want him that bad.  At $80 million I like him, but not much above that.  

 

The only team I can imagine giving Turner a 100 million dollar contract is the Dodgers and I imagine even they would think that is excessive.  MLBTradeRumors predicts a 5/85 contract for Turner.  I'm not sure about going 5 years for him.

[Chuck]

I thought the Dodgers needed to shed salary or not spend due to the luxury tax or something like that. No?

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am the biggest proponent of bringing him to Anaheim, but when I saw in that article that they project him to be a $100 million guy, I don't want him that bad.  At $80 million I like him, but not much above that.  

I think that projection was more of a weird "what he'd be worth WAR-wise" moreso than an actual contract. I think he'll be around 5/80-90, which is still nuts, but he'd give us a long-term cost-controlled option at 2B this season (and maybe another year or two) or 3B for the Trout years. Also gives us more flexibility to deal Cron and Thaiss if Turner could fill the 1B/DH role going forward. It's an expensive way to handle that, but we're still devoid of infielders for at least another two years and have several holes opening up next season.

Going into next offseason, as of now we'll have needs at 3B, 2B, UT IF, LF, and Cron will be hitting arbitration and entering a timeframe where he'd be a valuable trade asset, if he isn't already.

 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Turner is a good player. But he's just one of those guys that just scares me because of his previous knee issues and the fact that he will be 33 next year. He has played one full season in his entire career and that was in his age 32 season. That seems like a red flag for me. It's just a bit scary for me if he wants about 90 million. But eventually one of these big contracts we give out is going to have to work in our favor. Eventually, were going to have to start spending again. I don't know when that's going to be, but I don't know if I would start the spending with Turner.

Working in his favor is that he has always been a guy who hit for pretty high contact and average, without relying heavily on speed, and he doesn't K much. And he's good defensively. All of those concerns freak me out too, but he may age well. He may be intrigued by the AL for the opportunity to play 1B/DH to help him as he ages as well.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yea, he's been a really good player the past 2 seasons. Not just offensively in a pitchers ball park, but defensively as well. It's just scary with these contracts we have given out that haven't looked good for us. But we aren't going to go anywhere if we don't spend to upgrade our weaknesses, since our farm is one of the worst. Risks need to be taken. We'll see what happens. I doubt we get him anyway.

I just try and picture a hypothetical Turner signing like this - he's probably getting the same contract Jered and CJ got and we'll still be clearing one of those obligations, so we're still coming out in better shape financially than last season. And Hamilton has one year elft. Every FA has some risk, but neither of those contracts individually sank us - it was a combination of both of them and Hamilton, with Pujols and Trout on top. Given that we don't have anything in-house to help cover LF, 2B, 3B next season, it may make sense to lock up Turner now to ease the pressure of filling all of those holes again next offseason. 

In some ways, that Trout contract probably hampered our spending as much as any others, as it came out of nowhere.  I don't think anyone expected us to be in a position where we virtually had to offer a $100m+ contract to a 22-year old in the middle of this. It's worth it, but no doubt it was an unexpected (and necessary) expense.

[arch stanton]

Remember that 5/90 at age 32 is exactly what they gave to Torii Hunter 9 years ago. In the same mold he has room to move defensively and still provide value there and is a fairly similar hitter so he should be fine if they're willing to give him that.

[DMVol]

16 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Remember that 5/90 at age 32 is exactly what they gave to Torii Hunter 9 years ago. In the same mold he has room to move defensively and still provide value there and is a fairly similar hitter so he should be fine if they're willing to give him that.

Not only was Hunter productive for 5 years but if they had given him 2 more or even 1 with a reasonable option, it would have saved us the disaster that was/is Josh Hamilton....hindsight for sure.....

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Remember that 5/90 at age 32 is exactly what they gave to Torii Hunter 9 years ago. In the same mold he has room to move defensively and still provide value there and is a fairly similar hitter so he should be fine if they're willing to give him that.

I think that's a great comp. Turner would give us a stable presence in the IF - in a couple different positions - for the duration of the Trout years. We have no top IF prospects that project to be contributing in that time frame. David Fletcher is the closest we've got. Pujols, Cron, Marte (and yes, Turner) would all sort of revolve around the same role, but it'd also give us the necessary depth to deal one of Cron or Marte to fill another need. 

[Stradling]

As you guys know I like Turner but I don't think he ages quite as well as Hunter.  Hunter was pretty athletic and then became a good right fielder.  I would want Turner for 3rd base.  I don't care to see him at 2nd, but could stomach it for one year with the right contract.  

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

As you guys know I like Turner but I don't think he ages quite as well as Hunter.  Hunter was pretty athletic and then became a good right fielder.  I would want Turner for 3rd base.  I don't care to see him at 2nd, but could stomach it for one year with the right contract.  

 

That's sort of the plan I could see. I don't think we'd need him to necessarily age as well as Hunter as we wouldn't be counting on him for his defensive value at the end of the contract as much as we did with Torii. I'd see it working out somewhat like this.. 

2017: Turner's the Opening Day 2B. 
Gives the Angels a potent offense to balance our risky pitching. Allows you to deal Cron or Marte this offseason for help, but don't foresee that happening yet. Could deal Escobar this offseason, but I think they would have done that already if there was a deal worth doing, so he's here for now too. This does put the Angels in a situation where Escobar could be expendable at any point of the season. If any team needs a 3B, the Angels could find themselves with the perfect opportunity to get max value back for Yunel without adversely affecting the team. Either Marte takes over at 3B, or Turner slides over to 3B if the Angels have something else worth putting at 2B, such as Fletcher or Fontana. 

2018: Turner moves to 3B
If Escobar isn't traded, the Angels now let him go via FA, and Turner moves to 3B. Perhaps David Fletcher is now ready to take over at 2B everyday. Pujols and Cron split 1B/DH, Marte serves as depth, allowing us to consider dealing Cron at any point during the season. Still no one on the farm really on the horizon as a possible in-house 3B replacement. Thaiss getting close to 1B/DH. 

2019-2021: Turner and Marte are everyday 1B/3B, Pujols full-time DH, Cron dealt, Thaiss replaces Marte on bench as 1B/DH/LF 
I imagine by this time, one of Thaiss, Cron, or Marte have been dealt. Likely Cron. Marte - still only 28 years old in 2019 - becomes a consistent everyday 1B/3B, depending on both his defense and Turner's (as well as his health) with Pujols primarily DHing. Thaiss starts getting some MLB ABs, and can replace Marte's spot on the bench as a power bat who can pick up time in LF and DH.
 

 

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

I thought the Dodgers needed to shed salary or not spend due to the luxury tax or something like that. No?

Dodgers just announced the signing of Rich Hill. 

The Dodgers have to reduce their debt soon. I think it is after next season. But the team payroll is a drop in the bucket of their debt. Not only that, they have a ton of dead weight salary coming off the books anyway. They can sign all their FAs and still be lower than last years payroll.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-payroll-situation-is-far-from-dire/

Here's a link to the fangraph's article explaining it.

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Dodgers just announced the signing of Rich Hill. 

The Dodgers have to reduce their debt soon. I think it is after next season. But the team payroll is a drop in the bucket of their debt. Not only that, they have a ton of dead weight salary coming off the books anyway. They can sign all their FAs and still be lower than last years payroll.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-payroll-situation-is-far-from-dire/

Here's a link to the fangraph's article explaining it.

Still gotta be hard for them to reel in Jansen, Turner, and Hill.

I do hope we're darkhorsin' on Turner or Jansen. Signing either may dent our ability to spread out money among our needs for 2017, but definitely would help solidify the IF or pen for the remainder of the Trout years. It'd dent our ability to take care of other needs for 2017, but we'd just have to hope that we unearth another Marte for 2B or another Guerra/Ramirez in the pen and rotation, and if that doesn't happen, go into next year's deeper FA SP class with the Hamilton contract off the books and take care of it then.

[ettin]

25 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Still gotta be hard for them to reel in Jansen, Turner, and Hill.

I do hope we're darkhorsin' on Turner or Jansen. Signing either may dent our ability to spread out money among our needs for 2017, but definitely would help solidify the IF or pen for the remainder of the Trout years. It'd dent our ability to take care of other needs for 2017, but we'd just have to hope that we unearth another Marte for 2B or another Guerra/Ramirez in the pen and rotation, and if that doesn't happen, go into next year's deeper FA SP class with the Hamilton contract off the books and take care of it then.

One technical advantage the Angels have in signing Jansen, despite losing a 2nd round draft pick, is that we could give him an opt-out after 2017 so that he could re-sign next offseason out from under the Qualifying Offer cloud which is depressing his market slightly. If the Angels are out of it by the trade deadline we would get that 2nd round pick back and more (and that talent will be closer to MLB ready than the 2nd round pick we lost). If we are in the race then oh well Jansen is off our books for 2018 and we might actually have a chance of winning in the playoffs.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, ettin said:

One technical advantage the Angels have in signing Jansen, despite losing a 2nd round draft pick, is that we could give him an opt-out after 2017 so that he could re-sign next offseason out from under the Qualifying Offer cloud which is depressing his market slightly. If the Angels are out of it by the trade deadline we would get that 2nd round pick back and more (and that talent will be closer to MLB ready than the 2nd round pick we lost). If we are in the race then oh well Jansen is off our books for 2018 and we might actually have a chance of winning in the playoffs.

While I'd prefer to not give up the 2nd round draft pick, I'm also not totally against it. Because we're so thin in the upper minors, more than likely we are going to have to trade some prospects at some point this year or next to fill one of our many MLB holes, so if we fill it via FA this year and lose just our 2nd rounder in doing so, it keeps us from having to deal someone now.

[ten ocho recon scout]

When everyone else was pining for crawford, i wanted jayson werth. (Moreso beltre, but thats another story).

I was pretty off on werth. turner reminds me of him. (And i could be just as wrong this time). im not saying turner would collapse in his new contract like werth did, i just get that feeling that hes one of "those guys", that is cashing in at the right time.

Im with strad, at the money thats being projected, no thanks. doesnt mean i wouldnt love to have him here, i just think there will be buyers remorse.

[Ohtaniland]

13 hours ago, Stradling said:

I am the biggest proponent of bringing him to Anaheim, but when I saw in that article that they project him to be a $100 million guy, I don't want him that bad.  At $80 million I like him, but not much above that.  

At $100M ????? please change the thread title to read......

Angels not in on Turner!?!?!?!?!

[kevinb]

5 year contracts for guys who are 32/33 tend to work out well in free agency.

[Angel Oracle]

15 hours ago, totdprods said:

Working in his favor is that he has always been a guy who hit for pretty high contact and average, without relying heavily on speed, and he doesn't K much. And he's good defensively. All of those concerns freak me out too, but he may age well. He may be intrigued by the AL for the opportunity to play 1B/DH to help him as he ages as well.

Only downside is Pujols slotting into the DH role going forward, with 5 years to go.

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Only downside is Pujols slotting into the DH role going forward, with 5 years to go.

Turner could play 1B.

[DMVol]

5 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Only downside is Pujols slotting into the DH role going forward, with 5 years to go.

^^^This^^^....We are out of the DH business for awhile....

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, DMVol said:

^^^This^^^....We are out of the DH business for awhile....

Turner can play 1B later on in his contract, once he no longer can play 3B. Barring significant injury - and with Simmons beside him - he should be able to maintain as at least a solid 3B for at least three years into his contract. 

I only really see it making sense if
1) they feel he can handle 2B for one season, maybe even just the first half of the season 
2) they see a Turner signing as a sort of 'pre-payment' on Cron/Marte's future earnings and taking sure thing production and
3) see enough trade interest in either of those within the next year or two in either of those to fill another need that would have cost them FA $$$

[Stradling]

If we could move Cron and pick up an athletic prospect that is either a middle infielder or outfielder or even a projectable starter then it would free up a spot for a guy like Turner or Escobar going forward.