Is being this bad a blessing?

[Docwaukee]

So even with our injuries, I didn't think we would suck this bad.  I was actually hoping that we'd be around .500 or so because I think that would have been a reasonable indicator of the team being a playoff contender had we been healthy.  

I am not totally convinced this team wouldn't be a lot better at full strength, but would they have been good enough to contend?  Hard to say.  

It's interesting to look at the potential scenarios of what this season could bring  and how it would shape or future.  

Best case - the team is healthy and everything clicks.  Richards steps up as a #1.  Heaney as a #2.  Skaggs and Wilson return strong from injury and strengthen the staff or pen and the rest filling the gaps.  Street and Smith are who they were the last couple years.  Bedrock progresses.  Morin finds his form and the rest of the pen are solid.  Nava/Gentry give us league avg production.  Cron becomes a true threat.  Gia finds his glove and ends up a solid 2bman.  Escobar does what he did the previous year and Perez/Soto give us good production behind the plate both offensively and defensively.  We win 95 games and roll into the playoffs.  

Worst case - everyone is healthy, and none of the above happen.  We lose 90+ games and have to hit the reset button.  Much of our our org currency fails and leaves us very little to move and obtain future value.  

Likely scenario - some of the best case stuff happens and we end up in the hunt for the WC but we fall short by a few games and are left with holes to fill and false hope.  

Current scenario - We are struck with a rash of injuries losing our top two starters while other rotation candidates can't get on the field for support.  The bullpen craps the bed with only 1 guy showing any sign of being useful going forward and our two most reliable guys showing significant signs of decline.  LF ends up an even bigger nightmare than last year.  Cron doesn't progress.  Simmons doesn't hit at all.  Gia is capable.  A couple of clean peanuts emerge as potential options or at least solid support in Marte and Petit.  Soto is good but gets hurt and Perez is a disaster at the plate but Bandy shows some promise.  Pujols shows further signs of decline as opposed to leveling off.  Trop shows some promise and Shoemaker gives us hope that he can be a rotation fixture going forward.  We roll toward the break more than 15 games below .500 and a top ten draft pick.  

Now of course we'd all hope for best case, but in the real world, of the likely scenario and the current scenario, which is better for the franchise long term and more importantly, which gives us the best chance for keeping Trout in the future?

If the likely scenario were to take, we probably stand pat or even add at the deadline.  Potentially mortgaging more future talent for the present.  Or if we do hold, we roll into the offseason looking to supplement the 2017 club which would require spending money on a weak FA class and/or moving parts to help the big club.  We end up with a mid to late first round pick and potentially even forfeit that pick with a FA signing.  

Granted, it's not set in stone that we won't do that, but lets look at the future from where we currently stand.   We likely roll into 2017 with a protected top 10 pick. As it stands, we are likely sellers at the deadline.  Hopefully, we are able to move guys like Smith and Salas for something.  Anything.  A guy like Rasmus isn't going to change the direction of the franchise, but he a useful part.  Another example is in reverse, but we gave up Clevinger for Vinnie Pestano.  Clevinger wasn't really on anyone's radar, but he probably ends up part of Cleveland's rotation in the next couple of years.  In addition, as 2017 is looking like it may be a lot like 2016, you have to consider moving guys who's contracts are up after that season ie Escobar, Santiago and Street.  Again, none of those guys are going to net you a kings ransom, but maybe we get a useful player or two.  On top of that, you use 2017 to see what you've got in Cowart, Nate Smith, Sherman Johnson and a few others.  Maybe you end up with a couple of major leaguers.  

On top of it, the franchise now has a little bit of an excuse window to not use org currency that could be valuable in 2019 and beyond as well as saving their money for the 2018 free agent class when Richards and Heaney come back.  Hopefully, we will also have Skaggs and Trop as rotation fixtures and be able to add some useful parts to the pen as well as use the dynamic 2018 free agent class to fill holes elsewhere.  

I, personally, would have liked to have seen them go all out in the 2016 free agent market and blow past the luxury tax to take advantage of Trout's current window, but had they done that they be staring down the barrel of doing so for no return.  Bad luck has made them right, but hopefully they use that to their advantage.  Once it was clear that we were going to need good luck to win during Trout's window, my focus has changed to what we can do to make Trout stay.  

If you ask me what gives us a better chance between the above likely scenario if everyone were healthy and the current scenario, the latter actually gives me some hope that by 2020 we might have a chance to turn things around enough to give Trout a reason to stay.   

So if we are looking for a silver lining to this season, there it is.  

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

It's so sad that our main goal is to give Trout a reason just to stay here. Poor guy.

If we stayed on the path we were on to start the season, there wouldn't be a reason to by 2020.  

[California Cajun]

If this team were healthy this year I think it could had made the postseason but not win the postseason.

If Skaggs, Richards, Heaney, and Wilson all can't pitch most of the season I think you have to reluctantly look back and say nobody can absorb this and win. Catastrophic stuff happens sometimes. 

I'd say the next year is bleak if you can't haver a rotation of two of the four mentioned above + Shoemaker, Santiago, and Lincecum pitching well enough to carry the offense and relief pitchers.

[zenmaster]

Regarding Pujols, I know we don't necessarily have anyone to take his spot even if he were gone but... what would it take to get rid of him? At some point he's like a huge weight bringing down the team. Knowing we have him for 5 more years is a real motivation killer. Would you guys unload him if someone was willing to pay 5 mil a year of his contract? Would Arte eat another $100+M? He is a better hitter than our other options right now but cutting ties at some point might be best for the team (if we could find anyone to pay ANYTHING). Maybe an AL contender will need a bat for DH at the deadline and are desperate?

[fan_since79]

At least move Albert out of the cleanup spot. That's a no-brainer and can be done today.

 

[totdprods]

Regarding Pujols, what the Angels need to do is accept that he shouldn't be relied upon as the second part of a 1/2 punch with Trout. Recognize that he isn't going anywhere, commit him to DH, and move him down to 5th or 6th in the line-up by start of '18 at the latest.

Basically, count on him to fill what Cron's current role is, meaning he'll be squeezed out sooner rather than later.

[Docwaukee]

This not a 'pujols is an albatross' thread.  We have one of those.  

This thread is meant to discuss the possibility of keeping Trout and how the odds of that may have changed for the good because of this year's misfortune.  

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

We're #4!   We're #4!

High draft picks in early rounds the next two years, if drafting right and signing the RIGHT FAs after 2017, might go a ways in attracting Trout to stay.

[totdprods]

Totally think being this bad is a good thing given the current state of the organization and the way MLB is set up at this time. 

If we were middle of the pack again, we wouldn't be able to sign any big FAs this upcoming offseason without taking another step back by losing a draft pick. We finish this bad, we can get both and improve the farm and the big league club. I'm not 100% how international draft pools are determined, but if they're based on record, that will also help us out when the Baldoquin restrictions lift. Being able to throw money at international prospects I the next year or two while also drafting high is about the best we can manage to rebuild the farm as fast as possible before the last Trout Years.

Being this bad should be a wake up sign to Arte that the farm needs desperate help, buying big name FAs can't solve every problem, and probably opens the door for more significant managerial changes. Personally, I think Arte realized this already in the past year or two, and there's an understanding internally to put on a competitive face to keep the fans happy and attendance as high as possible while they start cleaning up the mess. I haven't really seen anything that goes against this since Eppler took over, and actually, even back to last year's deadline when we mostly stood pat.

[nate]

Only a blessing if Scioscia is fired and the team is blown up.  Still saddled with the awful Pujols contract for five more years.

[Troll Daddy]

Somebody is a little delusional ... using your word DocHalo. 

I can see you put in a lot of thought into your post. I don't see any reasonable plan for the future from you ... except not to spend any money and sell. Money saved for future free agents is good (for Arte) but doubtful that Arte uses that money to blow past the luxury cap. 

Trying to entice Trout by not trying to compete in the next year or two in hopes to build a super team sounds risky. 

Maybe if we had a new stadium to move into if makes a lot more sense. 

I believe you can come up with a better plan to compete next season.

Ps if Richards and Heaney go under the knife there's no guarantees they'll be ready in 2018 or as effective. 

A rotation of Shoemaker, Skagg, Tropeano, and Santiago is something to build on for 2017. Richards and Heaney are still in the mix so far. 

I'm not keen on trading Escobar unless the FO fells strongly about Cowart or Marte. The trade would also saves the team $6M towards the  2017 cap. I would also want a prospect we can use in 2017. 

Rangers are a great example who took their team from last to first the following season.

 

 

 

 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

We're #4!   We're #4!

High draft picks in early rounds the next two years, if drafting right and signing the RIGHT FAs after 2017, might go a ways in attracting Trout to stay.

Yup - maybe sign one big name this offseason or next while we have the protected pick (replacing Weaver/Wilson salary) and use that to our advantage. Yes, sucks adding salary right off the bat again, but we should still be able to shed enough salary this offseason to come out a little ahead. 

Let Hamilton drop off and keep that salary clear for the next mega-class.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, zenmaster said:

Regarding Pujols, I know we don't necessarily have anyone to take his spot even if he were gone but... what would it take to get rid of him? At some point he's like a huge weight bringing down the team. Knowing we have him for 5 more years is a real motivation killer. Would you guys unload him if someone was willing to pay 5 mil a year of his contract? Would Arte eat another $100+M? He is a better hitter than our other options right now but cutting ties at some point might be best for the team (if we could find anyone to pay ANYTHING). Maybe an AL contender will need a bat for DH at the deadline and are desperate?

Pujols isn't a problem (it's his contract) ... the problem is that we need a true clean up bat behind Trout and Calhoun. i would like to see him bat sixth in the lineup next season. He's on pace for 30 HR's & 100 RBI's. 

I think there's many teams who would take him for $5M season over the next five years. You just have to convince Arte and Albert first. 

[WeatherWonk]

Only seven losses behind the Twins for the top draft spot. That's 2.5 games closer than a WC spot..........and fewer teams to overcome.

We can do this! The ineptitude of Scioscia becomes an advantage! I can see our path ahead, er, below, finally!!

[2112]

4 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Pujols isn't a problem (it's his contract) ... the problem is that we need a true clean up bat behind Trout and Calhoun. i would like to see him bat sixth in the lineup next season. He's on pace for 30 HR's & 100 RBI's. 

I think there's many teams who would take him for $5M season over the next five years. You just have to convince Arte and Albert first. 

Then use him that way here.  What would a $5 million Albert do on another team? He wouldn't start every day, and certainly not cleanup. Use him to the best advantage to the team.

[AngelsLakersFan]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

So if we are looking for a silver lining to this season, there it is.  

Nice write up doc. What my concern is now, is just exactly how is this team going to find anything more than marginal improvement? We should be looking at two years of decent drafts and protected picks, if we do things right. We really have to hit on the right guys and wait a few years. Aside from that, there isn't much we can do. Selling off parts can give us some marginal wins, but nothing that is going to turn this team around. 

[Ohtaniland]

10 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

It's so sad that our main goal is to give Trout a reason just to stay here. Poor guy.

I think worrying about Trout's window is a waste of time. It takes a team to win a championship and it's going to take 3-5 (maybe longer) seasons of suckage to put the pieces in place to get there. Pujols left St Louis when no one thought he would for more money. Mike Trout could choose to do the same so why worry about it. It's all business and Trout will make that decision when the time comes. Let's face it, there are teams out there with a much greater history, better stadium, better management, better farm and a more promising future for years to come. What will Trout's legacy be if he never plays in the playoffs. Trout will chase his money and his ring. Like it or not it may require him to jump ship. 

[Lou]

Trout HAS played in the playoffs.

Also, you can't compare Pujols' situation to Trout's. When Pujols left St Louis he had earned a total if $114 million over 11 years. Trout will make $103 million over the last 3 years of his contract. One thing he'll never have to do is chase money. 

[Stradling]

Plus Albert was one of many great HOF players the Cards have had.  Trout is the only HOF player the Angels have ever had come through the system.  

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Rangers are a great example who took their team from last to first the following season.

Completely different scenario. Texas was a last-place team in 2014 due to the ungodly amount of injuries. Between 2009 and 2015, they finished lower than 2nd place only that one time. 

Edited June 26, 2016 by Lou

[gurn67]

Only if it gets a certain guy fired, and if he hasn't been fired by now, it ain't never gonna happen.

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, I agree with the gist of what you say, Doc - that losing 90+ games this year will actually be better for the franchise than if they won 80-85 and gave the (false) impression that they're only a tweak or two away from winning 90. Of course to some degree that might have been true. But the main point is that this team has needed an overhaul for years now, and the fluke 2014 actually set us back a couple years. Hopefully now Eppler and Arte will take this as a wake-up call, although what they do in response remains to be seen...

[Blarg]

So even with our injuries, I didn't think we would suck this bad.

 

Doc, you can't seriously think the team could suffer 5 starting pitchers being on the DL and not failing apart?

I'm not sure what you were expecting. This team was supposed to have a pitching staff, it doesn't.

[Stradling]

I'm with Doc I didn't think we'd be this bad.  The pen is worse and the offense is worse than I personally expected.  Maybe the pen is worse because the starters are worse.  

[Troll Daddy]

Funny thing is ... everyone here including DocHalo will be begging for Arte to open up his check book in the off season.