Stock Market: The Thread

[fan_since79]

And just like that, the big rally fizzled out. The Dow had been up 945 points earlier today and now it's back in the red.

I think this is more than a correction. Get ready for a full-fledged bear market. 

We'll see what happens when the White House comes out with their proposals later today. One possible item (and this is speculation) is a complete payroll tax cut for the employee. Temporary, of course, but that would put some serious cash in the hands of people to buy more toilet paper and bottled water.

Also waiting for the Fed to cut rates to zero and keep up with the Europeans. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

@yk9001

When you said stocks today arent "low", they are at 2019 levels (give or take), would that still mean in the long run its a good time to buy?

I don't know anything about stocks, at all. I know a coworker lost a ton of his deferred comp back in 2008. But he said he bought more (i guess meaning upped his contribution) and has done very well since.

In plain terms, im asking because because i have some money in a savings account that is just sitting there, and I have no plans to touch it anytime soon. (Like, years and years). And by some money i just mean a few thousand. Im just wondering if id be better off buying stock now, and gamble it grows better over the next decade than just sitting in a savings account.

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Also waiting for the Fed to cut rates to zero and keep up with the Europeans. 

How does that effect loans? Im doing a refi right now. 

And just out of curiosity, how would that effect personal loans? Like if i wanted to get a bank loan to buy a car, pay off a credit card, something like that.

[fan_since79]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

@yk9001

When you said stocks today arent "low", they are at 2019 levels (give or take), would that still mean in the long run its a good time to buy?

I don't know anything about stocks, at all. I know a coworker lost a ton of his deferred comp back in 2008. But he said he bought more (i guess meaning upped his contribution) and has done very well since.

In plain terms, im asking because because i have some money in a savings account that is just sitting there, and I have no plans to touch it anytime soon. (Like, years and years). And by some money i just mean a few thousand. Im just wondering if id be better off buying stock now, and gamble it grows better over the next decade than just sitting in a savings account.

Dollar-cost average it, buying some on the dips. If you throw it all in at once and this thing drops another 30% before it bottoms, well then you're screwed because it will take a long time just to get to even. The uncertainty on the virus and its economic impact is what's driving the selling. Also the fact that we had an insane rise in the indexes in the past three years. That had to burst at some point. 

[fan_since79]

5 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

How does that effect loans? Im doing a refi right now. 

And just out of curiosity, how would that effect personal loans? Like if i wanted to get a bank loan to buy a car, pay off a credit card, something like that.

Mortgage refi's will explode and go below 3%. I heard an ad on the radio yesterday for a no-points, no closing cost 30-yr at 3.125%.

Personal and auto loans should also be cheaper. Credit cards, maybe not. I've got a card still stuck at 19.99% and the only reason I keep it is the account is 34 years old, so that helps my credit score. I use the card to buy gas and pay it off every month.

[Jason]

16 hours ago, Lhalo said:

It's going to be more than that. Prepare for the government to prop up entire sectors of business. It will bring Bernie tears of joy.

 

 

[St1ck]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

 

8 min ago

Trump says administration will help airline and cruise industry during crisis

President Trump just said during a meeting at the White House that the administration will help the airline and cruise industries during the coronavirus outbreak.

"They're two great industries and we'll be helping them through this patch, and so far I think it's been going very well," Trump said.

Speaking to reporters during a meeting with health industry CEOs, which was also attended by Vice President Mike Pence, Trump mentioned the cruise ship that docked in Oakland yesterday.

"You know all about the big ship that came in yesterday, and that's going along incredibly well, working with the state of California successfully, very successfully, also with Canada and with the U.K.," he said.

[Lhalo]

Propping up the cruise industry is a fool's errand. Nobody is getting on a ship until this virus blows over.

Perhaps the ships will be used for hospitals when the SHTF.

[yk9001]

34 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

@yk9001

When you said stocks today arent "low", they are at 2019 levels (give or take), would that still mean in the long run its a good time to buy?

I don't know anything about stocks, at all. I know a coworker lost a ton of his deferred comp back in 2008. But he said he bought more (i guess meaning upped his contribution) and has done very well since.

In plain terms, im asking because because i have some money in a savings account that is just sitting there, and I have no plans to touch it anytime soon. (Like, years and years). And by some money i just mean a few thousand. Im just wondering if id be better off buying stock now, and gamble it grows better over the next decade than just sitting in a savings account.

It really is a gamble.  In the long run, it is a gamble that in general turns out well.

Then again, the S&P 500 was flat between 1964 and 1982... that's 18 years!

I *hate* the idea of money sitting in a bank, earning 0.2% (see my rant about how savers are penalized in this country).

Ameritrade and Charles Schwab offer commission free trades now (other brokerages as well).  If you want to invest in the market, open a brokerage (super easy) - and if you want to invest in the market, I would suggest just an S&P 500 etf.... it mirrors the S&P and has extremely low fees.  Ticker VOO is one.  

Good luck!

[Jason]

18 minutes ago, st1ckboy said:

8 min ago

Trump says administration will help airline and cruise industry during crisis

President Trump just said during a meeting at the White House that the administration will help the airline and cruise industries during the coronavirus outbreak.

"They're two great industries and we'll be helping them through this patch, and so far I think it's been going very well," Trump said.

Speaking to reporters during a meeting with health industry CEOs, which was also attended by Vice President Mike Pence, Trump mentioned the cruise ship that docked in Oakland yesterday.

"You know all about the big ship that came in yesterday, and that's going along incredibly well, working with the state of California successfully, very successfully, also with Canada and with the U.K.," he said.

Socialism 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

17 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Propping up the cruise industry is a fool's errand. Nobody is getting on a ship until this virus blows over.

Perhaps the ships will be used for hospitals when the SHTF.

The government intervening to prevent banks from going under during 2008 was one thing but propping up a luxury industry is a joke.  Same thing for airlines because if the government stays out of it some will still survive and if needed new ones will pop up to fill the holes left by any that don't come out of it.  The government should not be intervening in a fucking recession when we're already running a 1T deficit for the current year.    

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

13 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

It really is a gamble.  In the long run, it is a gamble that in general turns out well.

Then again, the S&P 500 was flat between 1964 and 1982... that's 18 years!

I *hate* the idea of money sitting in a bank, earning 0.2% (see my rant about how savers are penalized in this country).

Ameritrade and Charles Schwab offer commission free trades now (other brokerages as well).  If you want to invest in the market, open a brokerage (super easy) - and if you want to invest in the market, I would suggest just an S&P 500 etf.... it mirrors the S&P and has extremely low fees.  Ticker VOO is one.  

Good luck!

To add on to what yk said the S&P has historically returned ~10% a year with dividends reinvested.  Despite the flat period from 64-81 if you add the returns of the 12 years after that from 64-94 the S&P returned 10% annualized.  10% annualized returns means that a lump sum invested will double about every 7 years.  Obviously returns aren't consistent though so that's why playing the long game is important because some years your up, some your down but historically you're seeing good returns over 30 year periods.  Even if returns decrease going forward if you're still getting 7-8% that's going to beat any savings account and 80-90% of actively managed funds (think mutual funds, hedge funds, etc) over the same period.  

TORS if I were you I would invest my money in an S&P500 index fund or ETF.  You're going to pay 0.10% or less in fees and you would own a share of the 500 companies that make up the S&P500 which do business all around the world.  For every person who talks about how well their individual stock holdings have done there's 999 you aren't hearing from because they didn't do well and under performed the broader market, i.e. S&P500.

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, st1ckboy said:

8 min ago

Trump says administration will help airline and cruise industry during crisis

President Trump just said during a meeting at the White House that the administration will help the airline and cruise industries during the coronavirus outbreak.

"They're two great industries and we'll be helping them through this patch, and so far I think it's been going very well," Trump said.

Speaking to reporters during a meeting with health industry CEOs, which was also attended by Vice President Mike Pence, Trump mentioned the cruise ship that docked in Oakland yesterday.

"You know all about the big ship that came in yesterday, and that's going along incredibly well, working with the state of California successfully, very successfully, also with Canada and with the U.K.," he said.

Quit talking about Trump in the Hangout Forum.

[St1ck]

5 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Quit talking about Trump in the Hangout Forum.

There is a proper quote to use in this situation. 

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, st1ckboy said:

There is a proper quote to use in this situation. 

Respect our divine leader?

[St1ck]

7 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Respect our divine leader?

Close.

"You stupid shit, post your MAGA hate on the political board where it belongs but leave the rest of the site politics free. Do you understand?" Blarg November 14, 2019

[Angel Oracle]

Sybill is in great form.    Markets finish up about 5%.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Appreciate the tips, guys.

Basically, if I were to buy stock in an airline... thats the only thing im thinking right now. (Again, i have no idea how this stuff works). But it would seem theyre hurting right now, and will be for a bit, but a year or so from now (if not sooner) I assume people will be flying everywhere again. So i assume it will bounce back?

 

[tdawg87]

17 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Obama did the same thing by ordering a payroll tax cut during the financial crisis of 2008. Was he a dunce too?

@Blarg?

[Lhalo]

Cruise lines are all down around 50%. If our government bails them out I’m going to be livid. When was the last time you saw an American working on a cruise ship? If they go out of business then oh well. Tough shit. 

[St1ck]

7 hours ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Im selling everything first thing tomorrow morning. 

What do you have? I'm looking for a new dining room table. 

[Angel Oracle]

Sybill is alive and well.   Down 4% currently

I'm not putting any more into the market, but not selling what's there currently.

[fan_since79]

just some random thoughts:

FWIW, Goldman Sachs is predicting another 15% down from here before any bottom is reached.

I don't think Trump will get his payroll tax holiday and the market might not like that, since he talked it up so much. So knock it down another 1,000 points just on that. The selling accelerates on the way down since algorithms and computers control everything. 

There are reasonable analysts out there who think this 20% drop so far is a ridiculous overreaction, but it is what it is. 

 

[yk9001]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

There are reasonable analysts out there who think this 20% drop so far is a ridiculous overreaction, but it is what it is. 

Names, please.

[St1ck]

3 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

Names, please.