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Okay I might be changing my tune on Pujols


NrM

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Although there is plenty of room, as a precaution we will be dragging you behind the bandwagon by a short length of rope so we can cut you loose as necessary.  And the rope is actually a noodle.  Attached to your pinky toe. With a band aid.  And the noodle is wet.  And so is the band aid. And it's raining. 

 

But welcome aboard. 

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If Albert can have a solid season and stay healthy it would be huge for us.

 

Add in Josh having a good season and the Angels are fielding a really strong lineup.

 

I'm excited to see it happen.

 

Lot's of good things to look forward to this year.

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A .900 is about what I'm optimistically expecting. Here would be my spread (assuming 140+ games):

 

High (10%): .300/.370/.580, 35+ HR

Moderate (50%): .290/.350/.550, 30-35 HR

Low (40%): .270/.330/.500, 25-30 HR

That's in line with what I think. The early signs last year and from parts of 2012 still make me think a healthy Pujols puts up an OPS around .900. Is that worth the contract? Of course not. Is he going to be vintage Pujos ever again? Highly unlikely. But if Pujols does rebound and Hamilton remembers how to not completely suck, this team becomes pretty dangerous.

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Yesterday was the first game I've been able to see. I was very impressed with Pujols, from his opening defensive grab, to legging out the triple even after watching it fly at first (would have been a home run in a lot of parks). He looks comfortable and confident at the plate, he looks not trim but more trim, and he looks much more comfortable standing and running. I'm excited. I also thought Hamilton looked good hitting, running, and fielding. 

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There were only 11 players with an OPS over .900 last season, OZ. Only two of those over 1.000 and those two guys were the only ones with over 40 home runs. The days of steroid enhanced stats are pretty much over.

that's a good point.  A .900ops now would be equivalent to about a .960ops in 2009.  

 

There is a cool neutralized batting converter on BR that adjusts the numbers to what they would be if they occurred in a certain year/league/park.  

 

As an example, if you use 2009 AL and Angels stadium for his 2012 numbers, they would be 34/129 .311/.934.  If you compare to 2006 it would be .317/.950.

 

Give me his 2012 season and I will be pleased as punch.  

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If a guy hits 35 HR, his slugging percentage will usually be over .550. Slugging percentage is usually driven by HR and to a lesser extent doubles. Triples are so rare, now, that of course, they affect the average, but guys used to hit more triples on average than they do now.

 

Mickey Mantle had a .700 SLG percent in one of his MVP years. I bring him up because Mantle was not a guy who hit doubles. Not like Pujols. Mantle had 344 doubles over 18 seasons to go with his 536 home runs. Pujols already has 524 doubles to go along with his 492 HR in 13 seasons. 

 

Pujols never has hit 50 HR, but has never had a full season under 30 doubles either. (He was even on pace to do that last year, when he hit 19 in 99 games).

Mantle hit 50 HR twice, but hit 30 doubles just once. Pujols averages over 40 on both.

Edited by Hubs
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Pujols average slugging percentage is 7th all time behind Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Foxx, Bonds, Greenberg.

 

While everyone knows that with Pujols' eighth home run this year, he'll have 500 home runs… and be the 26th player to do so. There are only three other players in reach of 500 HR, Adam Dunn could do it in 2015. Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre might get there in 2017. Pujols is the active leader right now behind A-Rod who is suspended.

 

Pujols is also the one double behind the active leader in doubles with 524. When he hits that 8th HR, he'll become the 10th guy all-time with 500 HR and 500 2B. And if he gets to 600 HR and 600 2B, only 2 guys have done that, and that's Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron. 600 HR would be at the end of 2016 by averaging 36 HR per season for the next three. But 600 2B could happen in just two years, with two 38 doubles seasons. 

 

Can he set the doubles record? It's 792 by Tris Speaker. If he passes 600 at the end of 2015, then he'd need basically 200 doubles over the final 6 years of his contract here, which is 33 per season, which isn't really reasonable.

 

756 HR isn't likely either, but if he passes 600 in 2016, He'd have 156 HR to go and 5 years to do it. (31 per season).

 

Even if he doesn't set the records, he could wind up with 650 doubles and 650 HR, and be the only player in history to do that.

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If Pujols plays in 150+ games, and he hits 35 2B and 35 HR, his slugging percentage is going to be around .550.

 

if Pujols can hit to his career averages (43 2B, 41 HR, .321 BA / .410 OBP / .599 SLG) then we're in business.

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If Pujols plays in 150+ games, and he hits 35 2B and 35 HR, his slugging percentage is going to be around .550.

 

if Pujols can hit to his career averages (43 2B, 41 HR, .321 BA / .410 OBP / .599 SLG) then we're in business.

While it's not out of the question, I don't think Pujols will replicate those career averages ever again. Basically, I'm hoping Pujols follows the Hank Aaron career arc. Aaron went from being an elite player for the first 15 or so years of his career to a very good player for basically the last ten years of his career. So while I don't expect Pujols to be a truly elite player again, I'm hoping he can average .290/.360/.525 or so for the next five or six years.

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