Blind Holiday Player Comparison

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer -  

Happy Holidays Everyone! 

To spread some Holiday cheer I’d like to point out the gift still sitting in your stocking that you may have overlooked. Below is a blind player comparison based on each individual player’s final full AAA season before they broke into the big leagues1, adjusted to 550 plate appearances (PA’s): 

1 Player D had 21 PA’s in the Majors in the year previous to this but I ignored that for this article. 

Looking at the table you have to say that Players A, C, and D appear to be the most attractive. Player A has youth, stolen base ability, and solid BB% and K% rates. Player B has an excellent K% and decent BB% rate but that’s about it. Player C has a pretty good all-around package. Player D also has a pretty good skill set with excellent stolen base totals. 

There is some age disparity so what would happen if we looked at all four players age 25 seasons? What would change if anything? Below is the same four player’s age 25 seasons whether they were in the Minor or Major Leagues. Minor League stats have been adjusted to 550 PA’s: 

Well Player B sure does look a lot sexier now! Player A looks good too! Player C, of course, stayed the same while Player D clearly didn’t have a top-notch season in AAA that year (and in fact he played inconsistently across Rookie, AAA, and in the Majors that year). 

But again this doesn’t really paint a true story of who these players are and what they have accomplished in the Major Leagues. Below are the same four players with their career MLB stats: 

Other than Player C, who hasn’t even played a full season in the Majors yet, the rest of these players are MLB stars and have racked up pretty impressive career numbers to date. 

So who are these masked men? 

Player A is Andrew McCutchen. Player B is Dustin Pedroia. Player D is Shin-Soo Choo. Finally Player C is Kole Calhoun. 

Now I’ve done this blind player comparison previously on AW.com between Calhoun and Choo, but with Shin-Soo’s recent mega-contract I thought it would be good to remind the Angels community about the potential that Kole has and what his ceiling might be. Below is a side by side comparison of their Minor League numbers: 

A comp of Shin-Soo Choo is not unrealistic in Kole’s case. A career Minor League BB% rate of 11.9% is on-par with Choo’s Minor League BB% rate of 11.4%. 

In fact the only real difference between the two players is that Choo steals more bases while Calhoun has significantly more pop in his bat. Also if you consider the fact that Shin-Soo has twice as many plate appearances you could make the case that Kole could turn out to have a slightly higher ceiling if all things broke right for him. 

The positive to take away from this little exercise are that Kole’s excellent plate discipline is very likely going to transfer into his MLB career. It could even get better which would be a huge plus for the Angels who really need a good lead-off hitter in front of Trout and Pujols. 

Ideally I don’t see Calhoun in that role forever mainly because he has such solid pop in his bat that he would probably be better suited batting 2nd in the batting order. 

Moving forward I’d really like to see the Angels acquire a high on-base percentage hitter who can lead-off with Calhoun, Trout, and Pujols hitting behind him. That would be a serious high-caliber top of the lineup in my humble opinion (and frankly Calhoun, Trout, Pujols is pretty good)! 

So to recap: 

1. Kole’s ceiling is a potential star player in the same vein as Shin-Soo Choo

2. Calhoun has a high OBP and plate discipline should translate well into the Major Leagues 

3. Kole has some significant power in his bat which can and should lead to high teens/low twenties home run totals and solid doubles production 

4. Calhoun should maintain an approximate 11%-12% BB% rate along with a sub-20% K% rate in the Majors 

5. Kole will make the league minimum salary for the next 3 years and is under team control through the 2019 season (total salary across those 6 years of control is expected to be about $35MM) 

Again have a Happy Holiday Season and I sincerely hope you all pull out the Kole Santa left in your stockings! 

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[Mark68]

Wouldn't it be hard for blind players to hit the ball?

[Troll Daddy]

Calhoun has no business in the same conversation with these super stars ... but good stuff!

Calhoun is a gamer with mucho grit ... something I never saw in Bourjos. Calhoun needs to keep the pedal to the metal next season.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Wouldn't it be hard for blind players to hit the ball?

I'd imagine they'd get caught looking a lot. A LOT.

[GregAlso]

Good stuff. I agree, Calhoun has a ton of potential in this lineup as a solid all around lefty bat.

[Angelsjunky]

I've been a huge Kole Calhoun fan since the year he was drafted when he was still considered a typical older college pseudo-prospect who would flame-out before reaching the high minors. That said, I think its a bit much to expect him to be a star-caliber player like Shin-Soo Choo. But how good might he be (or do I think he'll be)?

 

I've heard two pundits at Fangraphs say that Calhoun will be "an average baseball player." Before getting in a tiss about that, let's examine that a bit more closely. Last assume that Kole will be the starting right fielder next year. In 2013, major league RFers averaged .266/.329/.431, but that includes all RF at-bats, and thus less-than-average part-time players. So let's up those numbers a bit and say that the average starting RFer hits around .270-.280/.330-.340/.430-.440, or ~.275/.770.

 

I think that's a good starting point for what to expect from Kole in 2014. That's a bit below his .282/.808 from 2013, but that was in 58 games and he could very well take a slight step back. Its also a bit below Choo's career numbers of .288/.389/.465.

 

Could he be better than that? Definitely. But regardless, I don't think he'll be quite as good as Choo; he doesn't have the plate discipline or the speed, but I think he'll hit for similar average (~.280-.290s) and power (~20 HR) and still pretty good walks (~60) and decent speed (~10 SB). A pretty damn nice player to have and, we can hope, a bit above your average starting corner outfielder.

[Second Base]

One of the many things I like about Kole is he's an Angels fan pick through and through. By that I mean virtually no one other than Angels prospect fans had any idea about this guy. It doesn't matter if what site you were affiliated with, Calhoun was a minor league stud that got no credit. He really unites many if us as fans.

Soon enough the rest of the league will learn about this kid. .280/.360 30 DB 20 HR 15 SB and above average defense in RF while making the league minimum. Who said we have no farm system?

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Wouldn't it be hard for blind players to hit the ball?

 

When I saw the thread title, I thought this was another rant about Jeff Mathis' hitting.

[SoWhat]

Alex Gordon is a good comp for Calhoun

[AngelsLakersFan]

This comparison is seriously lacking league and park adjustments. Salt Lake / PCL is a huge boon to hitters. Calhoun needs to be blowing these players out of the water offensively while showing the same defensive value to be in the same discussion.

 

Of course the three other players are really good. I think Calhoun will be a decent major leaguer.

[ettin]

This comparison is seriously lacking league and park adjustments. Salt Lake / PCL is a huge boon to hitters. Calhoun needs to be blowing these players out of the water offensively while showing the same defensive value to be in the same discussion.

 

Of course the three other players are really good. I think Calhoun will be a decent major leaguer.

 

Well the real point of the article is regarding Calhoun's plate discipline and OBP which isn't impacted quite as much by park factors. It is the one skill along with speed that transfers well to the Major Leagues.

 

I was also pointing out the fact that Choo and Calhoun have similar stat lines from their Minor League years and seemingly share a lot of similar attriubutes.

 

I think people are maybe reading more into what I was trying to get across. However I do think Calhoun will replicate similar production to Choo. Kole could easily have a "sophmore" slump in 2014. He could also show the drive, grit, and characteristics that have been typical of past, well-liked Angels players and really impact the game on a day to day basis.

 

As a final note Calhoun has been producing consistently throughout the Minor Leagues not just in the PCL. His Rookie and A+ numbers were just as nearly as good as his AAA numbers so I really don't think it will be an issue in the Majors as we saw in the month of September where he slashed .307/.348/.465, which wasn't to shabby.

[Chuck]

Choo and Calhoun are very good comparisons. Calhoun should be a 20/20 guy with a decent BA and high OBP, much like Choo.

[Docwaukee]

Kole is a bit of an aberration in that every time he advances, he does what he did the previous year in spite of expectations.  The minors are filled with guys that storm the castle out of college and then hit a wall at AA/AAA.  For good reason, convention says that he wouldn't have the skillset to keep doing what he's doing.  History is not on his side in that way.  If you did a really deep dive into minor league players as a whole, you would probably find more than not flame out once they get to where Kole is.  So, to be fair, it would be interesting to also look at the list of players with similar skills that haven't done much. 

 

That said, Calhoun is my favorite non fish halo.  I think his defense is one thing that will surprise people as it was apparently very good in the minors.  If he can get on base at a .350 clip and have some pop and speed, then he will have done as much as can be expected.  It's hard to predict his ceiling because so few players with his skill level have actually become regular players, but I would guess somewhere in the .825-.850ops range as about as good as he will be.  Which would be great, but I'm not relying on it. 

[Scott34]

I miss the days when Calhoun was being overlooked; now people are expecting too much of him.

[Brent Maguire]

Calhoun being an average-slightly above average player would be totally fine by me.

This team needs more players just to be average this year and let Trout, Pujols, Weaver and CJ be the difference makers.

[Inside Pitch]

Well the real point of the article is regarding Calhoun's plate discipline and OBP which isn't impacted quite as much by park factors. It is the one skill along with speed that transfers well to the Major Leagues.

 

I was also pointing out the fact that Choo and Calhoun have similar stat lines from their Minor League years and seemingly share a lot of similar attriubutes.

 

I think people are maybe reading more into what I was trying to get across. However I do think Calhoun will replicate similar production to Choo. Kole could easily have a "sophmore" slump in 2014. He could also show the drive, grit, and characteristics that have been typical of past, well-liked Angels players and really impact the game on a day to day basis.

 

As a final note Calhoun has been producing consistently throughout the Minor Leagues not just in the PCL. His Rookie and A+ numbers were just as nearly as good as his AAA numbers so I really don't think it will be an issue in the Majors as we saw in the month of September where he slashed .307/.348/.465, which wasn't to shabby.

 

 

I called Calhoun Choo-lite about a week ago, IMO he falls into that profile of hitters..  Choo's power numbers have always been helped by his home parks since moving from Seattle.  Cleveland is a boon to LHB power despite playing as a neutral to pitcher friendly park and has been since Jacob's Field was erected.  His home park last year is a launching pad for lefties.  As good as he is, Choo's career batting line in neutral parks is .274/.376/.435.  Still very very good but a significant drop off from his numbers at home, .303/.403/.495.

 

Are there really people who doubt Calhoun can be a consistent .270/.345/.425+ hitter?   He does that, he's a poor man's version of Choo, who in turn is Brian Giles lite.  People should go look at Giles' progression as a hitter as he wasn't a MLB regular until he was age 26.

.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Angelsjunky]

Yup, Inside Pitch. I used to call Calhoun "Baby Giles." Giles didn't breakout to his peak level until age 28 and then accrued over 25 fWAR over a four-year peak (age 28-31), then had a later plateau at a lower but still very good level for six years. Giles is one of the most underrated layers of the last couple decades, a clear Hall of the Very Good player who was better than some Hall of Famers.

 

This is not to say that Calhoun will follow in those footsteps and produce a 54.8 fWAR career. But I agree that he's a similar type of player, although where Giles hit .291/.400/.502 for his career, with three seasons above a 1.000 OPS, I think a more realistic expectation for Calhoun would be something like .280/.350/.470, with one or two years ~.850 OPS. My guess, also, is that he'll be a better player than Trumbo and maybe Bourjos over the next five years.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I miss the days when Calhoun was being overlooked; now people are expecting too much of him.

 

The Angels are handing him a starting job next year - there needs to be expectations.

[Scott34]

The Angels are handing him a starting job next year - there needs to be expectations.

 

Oh definitely -- and he will likely meet them (if they are reasonable).  But I think the Choo comps are pretty unfair.  Sure, he is the same TYPE of player, but Calhoun isn't Shin Soo Choo, and probably will never be.  I like the .350//.850 projection put forward by Jonathan when Calhoun reaches his peak.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Well the real point of the article is regarding Calhoun's plate discipline and OBP which isn't impacted quite as much by park factors. It is the one skill along with speed that transfers well to the Major Leagues.

 

I was also pointing out the fact that Choo and Calhoun have similar stat lines from their Minor League years and seemingly share a lot of similar attriubutes.

 

I think people are maybe reading more into what I was trying to get across. However I do think Calhoun will replicate similar production to Choo. Kole could easily have a "sophmore" slump in 2014. He could also show the drive, grit, and characteristics that have been typical of past, well-liked Angels players and really impact the game on a day to day basis.

 

As a final note Calhoun has been producing consistently throughout the Minor Leagues not just in the PCL. His Rookie and A+ numbers were just as nearly as good as his AAA numbers so I really don't think it will be an issue in the Majors as we saw in the month of September where he slashed .307/.348/.465, which wasn't to shabby.

 

I do think Calhoun has the ability to hit for similar average, and to show similar - park adjusted - power as Choo. Calhoun will probably walk at a good clip as well. The thing that sets Choo apart though is his insane ability to get on base, which I can't see Kole reaching. I know we are talking 'Choo lite' but I'm not sure a .350 OBP is really comparable to a player who is putting up .400 OBP.

 

As an aside, I think the most translatable minor league numbers tend to be K rate (which only trends slightly upward) and power (which is well translated with park effects). High BABIP tends to be an illusion, and walk rates can be all over the place.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Oh definitely -- and he will likely meet them (if they are reasonable).  But I think the Choo comps are pretty unfair.  Sure, he is the same TYPE of player, but Calhoun isn't Shin Soo Choo, and probably will never be.  I like the .350//.850 projection put forward by Jonathan when Calhoun reaches his peak.

 

Sounds like we are on the same page then. I like Calhoun to be a league average player.

[Inside Pitch]

Oh definitely -- and he will likely meet them (if they are reasonable).  But I think the Choo comps are pretty unfair.  Sure, he is the same TYPE of player, but Calhoun isn't Shin Soo Choo, and probably will never be.  I like the .350//.850 projection put forward by Jonathan when Calhoun reaches his peak.

 

You're sort of contradicting yourself.  You don't think he's likely to be Choo but you do like the .350/850 comparison.  Choo is a career .850 OPS.   

I don't think Calhoun will match Choo's OBP, but he will likely match or exceed Choo's neutral park power.

[Scott34]

You're sort of contradicting yourself.  You don't think he's likely to be Choo but you do like the .350/850 comparison.  Choo is a career .850 OPS.   

I don't think Calhoun will match Choo's OBP, but he will likely match or exceed Choo's neutral park power.

 

I meant Calhoun's absolute peak would be a .350//.850 season or two.  Choo has obviously put up 3 1/2 seasons of .880+ OPS.

 

I worded it improperly. We'll see.  I like Calhoun as much as the next guy, but let's not put huge expectations on the player. 

[Brent Maguire]

I see Calhoun as a pretty consistent 2.5-3.5 WAR guy.

He should post near a .800 OPS and 120 wRC+. Add in above average base running and an average defender and you have a pretty damn nice player.

[ettin]

I do think Calhoun has the ability to hit for similar average, and to show similar - park adjusted - power as Choo. Calhoun will probably walk at a good clip as well. The thing that sets Choo apart though is his insane ability to get on base, which I can't see Kole reaching. I know we are talking 'Choo lite' but I'm not sure a .350 OBP is really comparable to a player who is putting up .400 OBP.

 

As an aside, I think the most translatable minor league numbers tend to be K rate (which only trends slightly upward) and power (which is well translated with park effects). High BABIP tends to be an illusion, and walk rates can be all over the place.

 

This is where I would tend to disagree. Calhoun's Minor League career OBP is 17 points higher (.404 vs. .385) than Choo's when he went through the farm. There are certainly differences in parks, etc. that you pointed out but the numbers are on par with each other.

 

Now do I think he'll for sure do that this coming season? Who knows. But honestly I think the comp is real and I think his ceiling is a Shin-Soo Choo type player.

 

In reference to your remark about his .350 OBP that was over a partial season (222 PA's) while Choo himself in his first partial season (179 PA's) put up a .360 OBP. His 2008 season he posted a .397 OBP (followed by a .394 and then .401).

 

However as you are probably well aware I'm a half-glass full kind of guy (maybe even full glass full? Does that make sense?).

Edited December 27, 2013 by ettin