Fangraphs take on Hector Santiago

[Angelsjunky]

Here. Basically it points out that Santiago is moving from a hitter friendly ballpark to a pitcher friendly park, and one that is particularly helpful for Santiago's two biggest problem areas: walks and home runs. The author thinks he'll be able to repeat his mid 3.00s ERA, or at least be below 4.00.

[Guest]

Looks promising. I think he'll have a better year than Skaggs.

[Angels Never Die]

If you check out his splits, his relief numbers are actually worse than his starting numbers.

[AngelStew43]

I think Santiago and Skaggs both end up in the rotation.  Both of those guys are better than Blanton, who I hope we can find a taker for.  

[Angelsjunky]

 I think Skaggs is going to surprise some here. He might struggle a bit at first but I think he'll really find himself and be a legit #3 by the end of the year. Then in 2015 he'll continue at that level before taking another step up to #2 in 2016.

[Angel Oracle]

Let's just go with Weaver, Wilson, Santiago, Richards, and Skaggs, and see what happens.

Oh, and return Skaggs to the starting point in his delivery that he had through 2012. Muchas Gracias

Save the Garza money for Trout's contract and the increases coming to Pujols and Hamilton.

Edited December 23, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

I get his home run numbers should be better due to park.  But walks?  If park is a factor, shouldn't CJ have gotten better?

[Agalloch]

I get his home run numbers should be better due to park.  But walks?  If park is a factor, shouldn't CJ have gotten better?

Was wondering the same thing. Don't see how park affects control.

[Angel Oracle]

Unless it's from being too cautious, although true that Wilson shouldn't have to be as cautious in this park.

[wopphil]

 I think Skaggs is going to surprise some here. He might struggle a bit at first but I think he'll really find himself and be a legit #3 by the end of the year. Then in 2015 he'll continue at that level before taking another step up to #2 in 2016.

I agree.  Remember, it was just one year ago that everyone was talking about him as though he was the second coming of Matt Moore.  He had a bad 30 innings at the major league level, and appears to have suffered from some horrible luck in the launch pad that is the PCL.  I think it would be more surprising if he flopped than if he turned into a solid 2/3 guy.  I have a feeling that in just a year or two, we are going to look back on this trade as one of the best moves any Angels' GM has ever made.

[Inside Pitch]

Was wondering the same thing. Don't see how park affects control.

 

Not uncommon for guys in HR parks to avoid the middle of the plate and grooving a pitch.

[Brent Maguire]

I think walks and home runs are correlated in a way. 

 

If you're afraid to give up a home run in a big HR park, you're less willing to just throw strikes. Nibbling leads to more walks. Moving to a pitchers park potentially means he won't nibble as much and will possibly drop his walk totals. 

 

CJ's never been a HR prone guy so I think his issue is more about just not being able to locate at times. I haven't seen a ton of Santiago so I'm not sure if he's similar or different but there is a good chance his walks and home runs drop a bit. 

[Brent Maguire]

 I think Skaggs is going to surprise some here. He might struggle a bit at first but I think he'll really find himself and be a legit #3 by the end of the year. Then in 2015 he'll continue at that level before taking another step up to #2 in 2016.

Agreed. 

 

His floor should be at least a #4 guy. Realistically, he's going to be a nice #3 guy or potentially a #2. 

[IIIII]

i think santiago is going under the radar a bit too much 

[Angelsjunky]

Let's just go with Weaver, Wilson, Santiago, Richards, and Skaggs, and see what happens.

Oh, and return Skaggs to the starting point in his delivery that he had through 2012. Muchas Gracias

Save the Garza money for Trout's contract and the increases coming to Pujols and Hamilton.

 

I'm of two minds. On one hand, I agree with you - Garza is simply not worth the contract (probably 5/$80MM) that he's going to get. He's a solid #3 pitcher, but has health concerns and isn't getting any better.

 

But I'm also a bit leery about going into the season with Richards, Santiago, and Skaggs as the #3-5. There's just too much possibility for error. Certainly all three could pitch like #3s, but all three could also struggle and we'd be little better off than last year. I suppose if I were Dipoto I'd have this three layered plan:

 

1) Go after Tanaka, if that fails...

2) Wait on Garza and hope he slips to 4/$60MM or so, then grab him. If that fails...

3) Sign a Maholm, Burnett, Hammel or Suk-min Yoon type.

 

The 1st and 2nd layers are very unlikely to happen. The problem with the 3rd option is that none of those guys figure to be better than a moderate prediction for the current #3-5. In other words, by signing Paul Maholm, the Angels would be keeping Skaggs or Santiago from starts, and both are major-league ready. So it really seems to come down to Tanaka, Garza, or bust...or maybe Yoon as another option.

Edited December 23, 2013 by Angelsjunky

[Cdaniel]

Santiago is going to be a fan favorite. He has been tweeting asking Angels fans what his jersey number should be and he seems really excited to be here. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch.

[Guest]

Santiago is going to be a fan favorite. He has been tweeting asking Angels fans what his jersey number should be and he seems really excited to be here. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch.

I was told that he is one of the most approachable/humble players in the league. He seems like a cool dude. Edited December 23, 2013 by failos

[Docwaukee]

Odds are that one guys does well, one ok and one will struggle. You cant rely on all three to get you enough innings and you have almost no depth otherwise. Putting too much on these guys is a bad idea. They need to be your depth.

Agree with AJ's top two proposals and I would sign two of those guys mentioned and get another pen guy. That will probably cost about 12-14mil.

[Corona]

Santiago is going to be a fan favorite. He has been tweeting asking Angels fans what his jersey number should be and he seems really excited to be here. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch.

He's pretty active on his social media, seems like a nice guy though. He posts a few instagram pics a day, even follows back some of his fans.

[Erstad Grit]

I reaaaaaaaally hope both guys do well. It would justify trading Trumbo and set up an inexpensive core of our rotation for several years. However I just don't get why so many people are projecting them to be #2/#3 types of pitchers. They look like typical back end of the rotation guys to me but I hope I'm wrong. 

[Brent Maguire]

At this time last year, Skaggs was ranked the 7th best prospect in baseball ahead of guys like Jose Fernandez. The upside for him is a #2 starter but most likely a #3. 

 

Santiago pitched like a 3/4 guy last year but he's probably closer to a 4 than a 3. 

[tdawg87]

I reaaaaaaaally hope both guys do well. It would justify trading Trumbo and set up an inexpensive core of our rotation for several years. However I just don't get why so many people are projecting them to be #2/#3 types of pitchers. They look like typical back end of the rotation guys to me but I hope I'm wrong. 

 

How do you figure?

[Second Base]

I envisioned Trumbo bringing back a Santiago type in an ideal scenario.  A #4 SP with 3-4 years of team control left.  The idea that Trumbo brought in a #4 SP that could potentially be a #3 is outstanding, then when you add Skaggs into the mix as a back end starter with #2 potential, the return becomes out of this world.  

 

I envision Weav and Wilson being in the mid 3's in ERA, Richards and Santiago sporting a high 3's ERA and Skaggs in his first full season as a starter having an ERA in the low to mid 4's.  The team isn't desperate for top end SP talent on the Free Agent market anymore.  Havign said that, if Tanaka and Garza can be had on deals that don't hurt the ball club long term then go for it.  Pujols and Hamilton aren't going to get any younger.  But other than those scenarios, stay put, the team looks solid and is in a better place financially and in the long term than we could've dreamed back in October.   

[Angel Oracle]

Santiago is going to be a fan favorite. He has been tweeting asking Angels fans what his jersey number should be and he seems really excited to be here. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch.

Have him flaunt superstition and wear #13.

[SoWhat]

I don't want to count on Santiago as our #3 going into next season, but I think he's very capable of pitching like one. His 120 ERA+ and 3.13 ERA away from U.S. Cellular make me a big believer in him.