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Fangraphs take on Hector Santiago


Angelsjunky

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I think walks and home runs are correlated in a way. 

 

If you're afraid to give up a home run in a big HR park, you're less willing to just throw strikes. Nibbling leads to more walks. Moving to a pitchers park potentially means he won't nibble as much and will possibly drop his walk totals. 

 

CJ's never been a HR prone guy so I think his issue is more about just not being able to locate at times. I haven't seen a ton of Santiago so I'm not sure if he's similar or different but there is a good chance his walks and home runs drop a bit. 

 

Say what you will about Blanton, but the dude's not afraid to give up a home run.

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1) Go after Tanaka, if that fails...

2) Wait on Garza and hope he slips to 4/$60MM or so, then grab him. If that fails...

3) Sign a Maholm, Burnett, Hammel or Suk-min Yoon type.

I believe that's exactly what he's doing. I'd take Burnett out of that last group and add Capuano.

They wanna see what they can get for $3-4M in late January if they miss on Garza-Tanaka.

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Honestly just looking at his splits gives me enough confidence that he can sustain a mid 3's ERA (3.75'ish most likely, which is still solid #3 numbers) . Pitching half of his games here just adds on to the belief.

 

Not expecting much from Skaggs this year other than some really dominating outings where he shows his future potential as a #2-#3 guy. An ERA in the low to mid 4's would be fine as a 22 year old. Richards is the wildcard..where does he go from here? Is he really the #3-4 we thought he could be?

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I believe that's exactly what he's doing. I'd take Burnett out of that last group and add Capuano.

They wanna see what they can get for $3-4M in late January if they miss on Garza-Tanaka.

That's not a bad plan at all. I would not be surprised to see someone like Maholm or Baker available in January and they could definitely be had cheap.

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