LA Times: Angels unlikely to make Jason Vargas a qualifying offer; to pursue pitching via trade

[JAHV76]

This scene from Airplane sums it up.

Edited November 2, 2013 by JAHV76

[YouthofToday]

If the Angela do not extend Vargas a qualifying offer, and if he signs more than 1 year deal with an AAV more than $10 million I would be seriously questioning the fiscal sanity of the owner.

[disarcina]

2014? More of the same from 2012, 2013?..................if we can't put together the dollars to keep Vargas........it means we're going to nickel and dime it with the rotation and pitching again this off-season..........we saw where that got us in 2013........

 

Too late now, but I would have offered Vargas arbitration and put forth a reasonable / modest increase over his current salary.......if Vargas over-reached and sought a very large amount, the Halos would be able to point out that Vargas' health remains a question mark and that he did spent a considerable amount of time on the DL in 2013.

[Brent Maguire]

Scott Feldman would be a great alternative to Vargas and he'll probably be cheaper. 

 

Feldman: 181.2 IP 6.54 K/9 2.77 BB/9 0.94 HR/9 3.86 ERA 4.03 FIP 2.1 WAR

Vargas 150 IP 6.54 K/9 2.76 BB/9 1.02 HR/9 4.02 ERA 4.09 FIP 1.5 WAR

 

They were literally identical last year. 

[tdawg87]

Ehhh, he also pitched half the year in the NL. If you look at his career stats you will see he's a lot closer to Joe Blanton than Jason Vargas.

[Senor Piva]

Hopefully Kyle Lohse's situation last year will make Vargas inclined to take the offer, or negotiate a long term deal, rather than having the whole thing drug out like Lohse's was last year. 

[Jim]

I might as well not do anything today since I'm eventually gonna die anyway.

 

Damn, what a bunch of sad sacks you all are.  

 

I know.  The sky has fallen.  The end.

 

By AW failos.

At this point in the thread, only one poster had written what I would consider a highly negative comment. Even now that this thread has reached 5 pages, the majority of comments are about the Vargas offer, or lack of. I don't see the hordes of sad sacks and failos you boys speak of. Am I missing something?

[Blarg]

Yeah. The preemptive strike seems to have worked.

[Brent Maguire]

Ehhh, he also pitched half the year in the NL. If you look at his career stats you will see he's a lot closer to Joe Blanton than Jason Vargas.

True but he's also pitched in hitter's parks like Wrigley, Arlington, and Camden Yards in his career so far. 

[SoWhat]

If Feldman is signed, the season will be over before it even started

[tdawg87]

True but he's also pitched in hitter's parks like Wrigley, Arlington, and Camden Yards in his career so far. 

 

I like your line of thinking regarding getting a cheaper version of Vargas, I just don't personally see Feldman as being that guy. I get what you are saying about him pitching in hitter's parks, but he has also pitched better at home throughout his entire career. His K rate is pretty bad and his BB rate isn't all that good either. He is basically the definition of mediocrity.

 

His career numbers are actually worse than Blanton's, if you can believe that. And that INCLUDES this year.

[Brent Maguire]

Yeah I totally get it tdawg. I'm just looking at possibilities if Vargas can't be signed. Vargas is definitely a more reliable guy, I was just pointing out how equal the 2 were last year.  

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Not saying it isn't true but that is the same thing we heard before Pujols and before Hamilton.

 

Maybe, but now we have signed both of them to ridiculous deals, and reality has set in.

[tdawg87]

Who needs reality when we have Arte's magical pockets of endless hope?!

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/free-agent-profile-jason-vargas.html#disqus_thread

 

Free Agent Profile: Jason Vargas

By Steve Adams [November 3, 2013 at 12:57pm CST]

Looking for more stability in their rotation last offseason, the Angels dealt from their surplus of corner bats and sent Kendrys Morales to the Mariners in exchange for innings eaterJason Vargas. A freak injury cost Vargas about 50 or so innings of his season, but his final numbers look similar to what he's produced over the three previous years. He'll look to cash in on that consistency as a free agent.

 

Strengths/Pros

 

Vargas is an innings eater, and there's something to be said for free agents who can be expected to take the ball every fifth day. A freak blood clot that required surgery landed him on the shelf for nearly two months, but aside from that, Vargas hasn't been on the disabled list since 2008. He's had only one arm-related injury in his career -- a minor offseason procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in October 2007.

 

Even though he missed nearly two months in 2013, Vargas still racked up 150 innings, and the missed time brought his yearly average down to a still-strong 190 innings dating back to 2010. Vargas has a 3.97 ERA in that time, thanks largely to his plus command (2.5 BB/9 in that stretch). His strikeout rate has steadily crept upward over the past four seasons as well.

 

Vargas pitches left-handed, but he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Over the past four seasons, lefties have hit .257/.306/.383 against him, and right-handers have a similar .253/.309/.419 batting line.

 

Vargas was a late bloomer and did some of his early work out of the bullpen. As such, he has just under 1,400 professional innings under his belt. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm for a 31-year-old, and he won't be attached to draft pick compensation, as the Angels don't figure to make him a qualifying offer due to luxury tax concerns.

 

Weaknesses/Cons

Vargas' strikeout rate may be on the rise, but even the career-best K/9 that he posted this season was a below-average 6.5. His fastball sits in the 87-88 mph range, so he's not going to overpower any hitters.

 

Vargas is a fly-ball pitcher that has benefited from pitching in pitchers parks such as Seattle's Safeco Field and Angels Stadium in Anaheim over the past four seasons. Vargas' 4.61 road ERA, 4.70 road FIP and 4.73 road xFIP point to the fact that he's benefited tremendously from those spacious environments. His home numbers -- 3.39, 3.76 and 4.23, respectively -- are much stronger and suggest that he's best-suited for a bigger park.

 

In particular, he struggles with homers on the road. Vargas has allowed just 48 homers in 497 home innings (0.87 HR/9) throughout his career, but he's yielded 77 big flies in 482 2/3 innings (1.43 HR/9).

 

Personal

Vargas is an excellent athlete that played three seasons at quarterback in high school football and is an avid golfer in his free time. His arrival with the Angels reunited him with college teammate Jered Weaver. Baseball runs in Vargas' family, as he is the second cousin of Randy Velarde, who enjoyed a 16-year career as an infielder with the Yankees, Angels and A's. Vargas is very active in charities and co-founded Estrella Youth Sports in Goodyear, Ariz. -- a non-profit youth program that aims to develop positive role models through participation in sports.

 

Market

Vargas isn't an elite rotation piece, and teams that need top-of-the-rotation arms aren't likely to make him a prime target. He's a strong back-end starter and can slide into the middle of a rotation if needed, and plenty of teams will be looking for such arms. The Angels will likely make an effort to re-sign Vargas to a multiyear deal, and the Apple Valley, Calif. nativeis interested in a return. The Orioles showed some interest on the trade market this summer.

 

In addition to the O's and Angels, I'd expect contenders like the Royals, Indians and Pirates to show interest. Teams that didn't contend in 2013 but simply need reliable innings could show interest as well, with the Twins, Mariners, Brewers, Padres and Giants coming to mind.

 

Teams in smaller parks will likely be more hesitant regarding Vargas, but the Phillies, Yankees and Blue Jays are all looking for pitching help as well. Vargas and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports should have plenty of interested teams to negotiate with over the course of the winter.

 

Expected Contract

Vargas doesn't come with a ton of upside, but he's a consistent source of 200 or so innings at or slightly below the league average. Even if he's not an outstanding performer, durability pays on the open market. Vargas is younger than Jeremy Guthrie, and his four years prior to free agency are similar to Guthrie's in terms of innings pitched, ERA+, K/9 and BB/9. In terms of superficial stats, Vargas stacks up well against Ricky Nolasco over the past four years, though the latter has him dwarfed in terms of sabermetric stats. He's similar to Scott Feldman in terms of performance, but Vargas has a much more consistent track record.

 

Balelo could try to parlay his client's durability and consistency into a four-year contract, given his relative youth, but three years is more realistic for someone with Vargas' limited upside. He should be able to top Guthrie's contract but is likely to fall short of whatever amount Nolasco will receive.

 

I waffled between a three-year, $27MM deal and a three-year, $30MM deal for Vargas, so I'm splitting the difference and predicting a three-year, $28.5MM contract.

[tdawg87]

I'd be fine with that contract.

[Docwaukee]

If that is the deal he ends up with, then I think we need to bring him back and I can see why they wouldn't offer him a qualifier at that. 

[VariousCrap]

I honestly think the Angels feel they can sign Vargas to a deal similar to what is listed by MLBTradeRumors and I'd love to have him back for that.  The Angels can then trade for a #3 and bullpen help.  Offseason over.

[tdawg87]

I honestly think the Angels feel they can sign Vargas to a deal similar to what is listed by MLBTradeRumors and I'd love to have him back for that.  The Angels can then trade for a #3 and bullpen help.  Offseason over.

 

I don't see the word "splash" anywhere in this post.

[stormngt]

If that is the deal he ends up with, then I think we need to bring him back and I can see why they wouldn't offer him a qualifier at that. 

 

Make him a qualifying offer of 15 million.  Than negotiate a 28 million three year deal.  If he turns it down, we don't negotiate at all and get a draft pick.  

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Vargas is certainly not an ace, but a guy who can keep a bullpen like ours out of the game is certainly valuable. I don't understand this thinking by the FO. It's not like we have loads to trade to bring in rotation guys.

Edited November 3, 2013 by Vegas Halo Fan

[disarcina]

Two year deal at $21 million, perhaps a team option/ player buy out clause for year three.......

 

But if we can't get Vargas in the mix for next season, this off-season's moves may mirror last year's..........

 

and what is really scary is that when a guy you really should sign and probably could sign for a not too over the top price (everything is over-priced these days) gets away from the Angels and then the off-season progresses and Spring Training is suddenly in sight, the Halos then react by making some real dumb, almost desperate looking signing to show 'hey, look what we've done' that ends up being a total disaster..........

 

Gary Matthews Jr., Vernon Wells, last year - Hamilton......

 

I thought the Vargas deal (combined with the Frieri (spelled wrong) were the better moves made the past two seasons.........

 

Halos need some rotation and pen help..........Nathan is suddenly available and I'd try to sign him, even at his age, to a two year deal.

 

He was lights out for Texas last year -- not sure why they are passing on him now........

[VariousCrap]

I don't see the word "splash" anywhere in this post.

 

 

We don't need a splash this offseason.

[tdawg87]

but

[Hoops McCann]

given the questions of the starting staff, I dont see how the Angels dont give him a QO.  Although, given the market, he may decline anyway and try to get a multi-year deal with better AAV.

 

We should know in a day.