It ain't over, but...

[Angelsjunky]

...the season, and perhaps near-term future of the franchise, hangs in the balance.

Three days ago, the Angels had gone 8-1 to go 54-49 and 3 games out of the third wildcard spot. They decided to keep Ohtani, be buyers and traded two of their top ten prospects for two rental pitchers. They proceeded to lose the next two games and are now 54-51 and 4.5 games back, possibly 5 if the Astros beat the Rays.

Yes, it is just two games but it is borderline disastrous. Not only the season but the near-future of the franchise is at stake. By keeping Ohtani and trading away two of their better prospects, they're banking on not only making the playoffs this year, but hopefully retaining Ohtani and being a perennial contender next year and beyond.

If they fall behind and miss the postseason, not only are they likely to lose Ohtani, but they also lost two of their better prospects. Meaning, by making this choice they went all-in on a path that pretty much requires Ohtani to be part of it to have a chance of being successful. They've already hurt their chances at a successful rebuild by trading Quero and Bush, and if they want to be a legit contender over the next few years, they need their best player.

In other words, it is possible that they lose Ohtani, Quero and Bush for...nothing. 

The situation will become truly dire if they lose the next two games and are at 54-53 on the eve of the trade deadline. While i don't think Perry will panic and trade Ohtani for the first decent offer, the temptation will probably be there to do so. But...they'll be (even more of) the laughingstock of major league baseball. In order to make that a valid approach, they'd have to trade everyone else as well - including--and perhaps especially--Giolito and Lopez.

I don't think they'll do that. I mean, maybe if they lose both games and the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners all win two. They'd be 7 games back, with everyone else at least 2 games ahead of them. But even then, I think they'll buckle down and hope for the best, regardless of the next two games. But they've got to get back on course and not simply win more games than they lose, but probably win about twice as many as they lose.

And, of course, this is worsened by the probable loss of Ward for an extended period of time. 

As I said in another thread a few days ago, losing Ohtani opens up the possibility of a much-needed franchise overhaul. But...I think they already signaled that they don't plan on doing that by trading away Quero and Bush. Who knows, maybe Ohtani has a secret handshake promise with Arte, but they've gone down a path that requires him staying. If he leaves, they probably won't rebuild and we'll be left with a rather depressing state of affairs: losing their best player and not rebuilding, with a much weakened cast. Meaning, more of the same of the last decade, but even worse. The Dark Age would be extended by another few years, at least.

But there's still 57 games to be played. 5 games back isn't impossible, but with three teams ahead of them the road won't be easy and they're even more on the outside looking in than they were a couple days ago. Things will look a bit brighter if the Ward injury ends up looking worse than it was, but that seems unlikely.

Angels baseball, folks.

[Angelsjunky]

And a bonus question: If you're Perry Minasian, are you seriously thinking about a different job? I know he's signed for another year and it probably wouldn't look good if he quits before that, but he's got to be regretting this by about now. His future career hinges on him at least making a palpable positive course-correction for the Angels and he's not there yet. 

And he's pretty much in a damned if you do/don't situation. Re-sign Ohtani and you have to build a winning team around him. He leaves, what then? Rebuild in your last year? Spend Arte's money on...what? An aging cast of former stars?

Dial it back to the start of his Angels career and he really should have pushed harder for a rebuild in 2021. Shohei hadn't broken through yet, Trout was already signed long-term, and they had a bunch of young guys with promise. But instead he spent whatever he could and tried--and failed--to field a winner.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[ScottT]

Dr

[jsnpritchett]

She's warmin' up.

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

And a bonus question: If you're Perry Minasian, are you seriously thinking about a different job? I know he's signed for another year and it probably wouldn't look good if he quits before that, but he's got to be regretting this by about now. His future career hinges on him at least making a palpable positive course-correction for the Angels and he's not there yet. 

If you're another team, what have you seen in Minasian's tenure that would make you want to give him the same responsibilities? 

[UndertheHalo]

Even if they swept the Jays this weekend there’s still a ton of baseball.  It’s disappointing to lose this series.  Get a win tomorrow and none of this shit matters that much.  
 

the much bigger issue is that they are literally running out of guys to put in the line up.  Way too many guys who should not be playing on a major league team regularly being pressed into everyday playing time. 

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

If you're another team, what have you seen in Minasian's tenure that would make you want to give him the same responsibilities? 

Yup - I elaborated while you wrote this. He's in a tough situation and must be feeling that next year will determine the rest of his career. He'll probably still get jobs, but probably not as a GM - at least not right away.

And I hate to say it but if they miss the playoffs and lose Shohei, Arte wouldn't be unreasonable to be pissed. He's given him money to spend, even if it is relatively tight with the inherited albatross contracts of Pujols (at first) and Rendon (plus Trout's, which might be heading towards Albatrossia). If you're the owner of the club and you continually offer a bordering on top 5 payroll, you should expect some results - at least improvement.

There may be improvements that are underneath the radar a bit, but they have to be visible. It is sort of like Statcast and predictive stats: they're only meaningful if they actual lead to "real" stats.

[Slegnaac]

It has been a rough season.

Opening day players 

Ward LF - OUT

Trout CF - OUT

Rendon 3B - OUT

Drury 1B - OUT

Urshella SS - OUT

O'Hoppe C - OUT

[tomsred]

I'm sorry, but I don't look at the season this way.  It's two games, there are four more on this roadtrip, and there are two more months to this season.  Nothing is decided yet, I think they will win some and they will certainly lose more, just how many is completely unknown at this point.  Evaluating the first two thirds of the season  they have been pretty inconsistent.  In some ways they are stronger now, but the injuries are eating them alive.  The margin for error is getting smaller mostly due to that point, and the schedule is brutal in August especially.

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe just stand pat, and show Ohtani that you want to re-sign him, Giolito, Moore, and López.

And hope for a change FINALLY to comparable health to other contending teams in 2024?

They’ve already gone over the tax threshold this season.   Might as well go with just about the same team in 2024, and see what happens.

Detmers needs to finally take that next step in 2024, after 2+ MLB seasons.   He’s got the talent, time to starting showing it from the start of 2024.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[tomsred]

8 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

It has been a rough season.

Opening day players 

Ward LF - OUT

Trout CF - OUT

Rendon 3B - OUT

Drury 1B - OUT

Urshella SS - OUT

O'Hoppe C - OUT

That's the top tier, but there are 11 more who are in the supporting cast who are out, plus some active players are nursing injuries like Neto, now Ward (could be out for the rest of the year, don't know yet), Renfroe was nursing some playable injuries, Ohtani's cramping, etc..

[Slegnaac]

Just now, tomsred said:

That's the top tier, but there are 11 more who are in the supporting cast, plus some active players are nursing injuries like Neto, now Ward (could be out for the rest of the year, don't know yet), Renfroe was nursing some playable injuries, Ohtani's cramping, etc..

Yes, it has been a very rough season, so far.

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, tomsred said:

That's the top tier, but there are 11 more who are in the supporting cast, plus some active players are nursing injuries like Neto, now Ward (could be out for the rest of the year, don't know yet), Renfroe was nursing some playable injuries, Ohtani's cramping, etc..

And the Skanks complain about their injuries?   Tinker Toys compared to losing SIX opening day starters!

[AngelsLakersFan]

Same post different year.

 

[Slegnaac]

7 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I'm sorry, but I don't look at the season this way.  It's two games, there are four more on this roadtrip, and there are two more months to this season.  Nothing is decided yet, I think they will win some and they will certainly lose more, just how many is completely unknown at this point.  Evaluating the first two thirds of the season  they have been pretty inconsistent.  In some ways they are stronger now, but the injuries are eating them alive.  The margin for error is getting smaller mostly due to that point, and the schedule is brutal in August especially.

Yes there are still games to play.

However, every lose takes them further away from the goal of making the playoffs. 

Winning now is just as critical as it was in April, May and June.

[Torridd]

24 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

...the season, and perhaps near-term future of the franchise, hangs in the balance.

Three days ago, the Angels had gone 8-1 to go 54-49 and 3 games out of the third wildcard spot. They decided to keep Ohtani, be buyers and traded two of their top ten prospects for two rental pitchers. They proceeded to lose the next two games and are now 54-51 and 4.5 games back, possibly 5 if the Astros beat the Rays.

Yes, it is just two games but it is borderline disastrous. Not only the season but the near-future of the franchise is at stake. By keeping Ohtani and trading away two of their better prospects, they're banking on not only making the playoffs this year, but hopefully retaining Ohtani and being a perennial contender next year and beyond.

If they fall behind and miss the postseason, not only are they likely to lose Ohtani, but they also lost two of their better prospects. Meaning, by making this choice they went all-in on a path that pretty much requires Ohtani to be part of it to have a chance of being successful. They've already hurt their chances at a successful rebuild by trading Quero and Bush, and if they want to be a legit contender over the next few years, they need their best player.

In other words, it is possible that they lose Ohtani, Quero and Bush for...nothing. 

The situation will become truly dire if they lose the next two games and are at 54-53 on the eve of the trade deadline. While i don't think Perry will panic and trade Ohtani for the first decent offer, the temptation will probably be there to do so. But...they'll be (even more of) the laughingstock of major league baseball. In order to make that a valid approach, they'd have to trade everyone else as well - including--and perhaps especially--Giolito and Lopez.

I don't think they'll do that. I mean, maybe if they lose both games and the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners all win two. They'd be 7 games back, with everyone else at least 2 games ahead of them. But even then, I think they'll buckle down and hope for the best, regardless of the next two games. But they've got to get back on course and not simply win more games than they lose, but probably win about twice as many as they lose.

And, of course, this is worsened by the probable loss of Ward for an extended period of time. 

As I said in another thread a few days ago, losing Ohtani opens up the possibility of a much-needed franchise overhaul. But...I think they already signaled that they don't plan on doing that by trading away Quero and Bush. Who knows, maybe Ohtani has a secret handshake promise with Arte, but they've gone down a path that requires him staying. If he leaves, they probably won't rebuild and we'll be left with a rather depressing state of affairs: losing their best player and not rebuilding, with a much weakened cast. Meaning, more of the same of the last decade, but even worse. The Dark Age would be extended by another few years, at least.

But there's still 57 games to be played. 5 games back isn't impossible, but with three teams ahead of them the road won't be easy and they're even more on the outside looking in than they were a couple days ago. Things will look a bit brighter if the Ward injury ends up looking worse than it was, but that seems unlikely.

Angels baseball, folks.

The team is showing heart but these injuries can really demoralize you. 

[fan_since79]

25 minutes ago, Torridd said:

The team is showing heart but these injuries can really demoralize you. 

At least they're trying. Now if they could only learn situational hitting and the other baseball fundamentals, and get a manager with a real feel for the game. Better coaching too...and another owner.

I know, asking for a lot here.

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, fan_since79 said:

At least they're trying. Now if they could only learn situational hitting and the other baseball fundamentals, and get a manager with a real feel for the game. Better coaching too...and another owner.

I know, asking for a lot here.

Nevin may have them more focused.

Odd though that there are far too many mental/physical errors on the field?

[Blarg]

Opening day lineup to today we have

Ohtani 

Rengifo 

Renfroe 

Thaiss

Three position players and a DH. 

[Docwaukee]

24 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Opening day lineup to today we have

Ohtani 

Rengifo 

Renfroe 

Thaiss

Three position players and a DH. 

opening day roster?  

The rotation has been reasonably stable, but outside of Estevez and now that Moore is back, they've still pretty much turned the pen over at least twice.  

[Stradling]

If they lose tomorrow it’s over and then sell everyone who won’t extend. If they win tomorrow they are 4 games out and decide if you want to continue to push all in. 

[HBAngel13]

I was excited to see the team commit to a course of action by pushing the chips in for Giolito. The worse thing they could have done was nothing (or effectively nothing by making some marginal improvements).  It’s a long shot for sure, but we haven’t played meaningful Aug/Sept baseball in close to a decade.  If it backfires, it’s a likely tear down scenario anyway

I would have been more excited if they would have traded Ohtani and sold off the non-core guys like Estevez, Drury, Moore, etc…  That would have been the best overall franchise move, but I think we all understand why they didn’t pull that trigger

I may not have chose the win-now path, but I definitely didn’t want them to sit in the middle and do nothing.  I can at least respect them trying to win now, even if it feels like a Hail Mary  

Let’s hope they get the last game tomorrow.  The DET sweep gave them some slight margin for error. We just need to consistently win 2 of 3. A win tomorrow accomplishes that over the last 9 games. 

[TheLordofOuts]

It ain't over until I run out of Jack Daniel's and I just bought 2 more cases

[DMVol]

15 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If they lose tomorrow it’s over and then sell everyone who won’t extend. If they win tomorrow they are 4 games out and decide if you want to continue to push all in. 

Can’t tell if you’re being facetious or serious…

[Swordsman78]

Alot of assumptions made in the OP.   IMO Ohtani is resigning regardless of if they make the playoffs.   He knows the injury situation, and what the halos have coming back in '24.  I don't see him as being a guy who wants to play for multiple teams in 2 years in order to chase a playoff game.

The next decade future of the franchise doesn't hang over the nest couple games.   That is a bit over dramatic.   Still enough games left for one of the front runners to get key injuries or go into a slump.  Plus the Blue Jays have multiple games left vs the AL East where they have a horrible record.