Mid-way assessment: This is the year to make some moves

[totdprods]

32 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree re: Trout. But one thing to consider is that this isn't the old "Trout plus Calhoun/Pujols and scrubs" lineup of five years ago. Beyond Trout and Ohtani, almost the entire lineup are above league average. There are a bunch of players that are in the Calhoun level: Renfroe, Drury, Thaiss, Moniak (assuming he settles in around 120 wRC+ the rest of the way), plus solid contributors like Neto, Moustakas, Wallach, Ward, Escobar. 

Of course - what I’m getting at is this team is, IMO, a solidly built playoff team. But I’m not sure they’re built to go deep into the playoffs quite yet, unless we’re fortunate enough to have a bulk of the team playing well and healthy, in which case even just a solid team can win it all. 

My worry is we’re riding a lot of inexperienced arms and a slumping Trout to the playoffs in hopes they’re enough to compliment Ohtani, who surely will be running on fumes (to some degree) by October. 

If Trout finds himself in July, awesome, that more or less settles my worry. If Rendon can return and play more than 10 games before getting hurt, that too could settle my concern. I just don’t know that I want to hope Drury, Renfroe, Thaiss, Detmers and a bunch of kid relievers will are all clicking come October, and having another legit impact addition would mitigate those concerns a lot. If we make the playoffs, I want to win, not get swept out like in ‘14.

And I’m not saying they need to land an an up and coming new MVP or a perennial all-star. Guys like just one of Giolito or Chapman or Kimbrel or Bellinger or Tim Anderson or Hendriks might be sufficient in just bringing in additional big game experience and most importantly, something similar to elite potential, even if that time has passed for each of them. I think it’d be a real shot in the arm for the teams morale if a Goldschmidt or Scherzer or Darvish or someone walked into the clubhouse Aug 2. Last hurrah guys.

Edited June 28, 2023 by totdprods

[Taylor]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

This was disproven as a valid premise a decade ago, courtesy of...

You're really tempting fate with this thread. Posting this photo is like spitting in the baseball gods' faces.

[Taylor]

But other than that, A+ writeup and I agree 100%.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

It's not my money though. 

I feel like if you're all in, you're ALL in without restrictions. 

This.
If there was ever a year, if there is ever going to be a year, this has to be it.
You cant qualify it, you cant put a budget on it, you get get what it takes and you do it sooner rather than later.
If this isnt that time, then honestly, what would it take for that time to happen?

[UndertheHalo]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

They can't really do that now, though - or at least this season. I mean, not trading away prospects, but it isn't like they're holding onto a bunch of elite prospects, and it might actually be better for the future to bolster the team for a playoff run this year--and improve their chances of re-signing Ohtani--then holding onto a bunch of decent to pretty good prospects, none of whom look like future stars (with the possible exception of Quero).

I think the Angels will go all-in on trying to win this year - at least as much as they can. Meaning, another starter and a reliever or two.

Beyond that, I think the plan remains the same whether or not Ohtani re-signs. They'll need to replace or extend a few players but almost everyone of significance is under club control. If Ohtani doesn't sign, they might go after a bat and another starter, but that means instead of spending $50M AAV on Ohtani, they'll be spending $30-40M on two players to replace him.

The overall hope for the Angels remain the same: improve scouting and player development. Hard to know how much Minasian has done that, but it seems the needle is slowly moving in the right direction.

 

7 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The only way the Angels can win consistently while paying Ohtani that much is to have a strong farm system. 
 

Also, the only way the Angels can win consistently without Ohtani is to have a strong farm system. 

Obviously they have continue producing useful MLB players but that’s a truism no matter what’s going on.  The disaster of the last decade bears that out doesn't it? The Angels have a number of good young players.  They’ll be cost controlled.  That’s good.  Again, they’ll need to continue doing that.  But regarding Ohtani.  There is no point in keeping him around if you aren’t going to spend the money necessary to keep him surrounded with *good* major league players.  Yes of course we want to do that internally as much as possible.  But you assume that you’ll have to pay Ohtani and Trout combined 80 million at least.  Are you going to put together a competitive major league team in the AL West paying those two that with a total payroll of like 150-160-170-180 million dollars? I don’t know man.  I doubt it. Even if you are fairly successful pipelining solid players out of the system.  

Plus they’re still stuck paying the perma injured wonder 35 million for the next 3 years beyond this one.

there’s no point in Ohtani and frankly Trout if you aren’t trying to compete seriously every year.  That means you’ll be spending money to plug holes.  It’s going to take a pretty consistent commitment to a large payroll.  We’ve seen a lot of the Angels being averse to paying not star but legit major leaguers for the most part in the last decade.  This last off season and now in season being a departure from that.  Will it last ? It will need to.  But that’s the point I’m trying to make. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by UndertheHalo

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The only way the Angels can win consistently while paying Ohtani that much is to have a strong farm system. 
 

Also, the only way the Angels can win consistently without Ohtani is to have a strong farm system. 

What you are saying is that the Angels are not committed to increasing payroll to accommodate an Ohtani contract. More specifically they are willing to pay Ohtani whatever it takes, but that money will have to come out of other areas.

[khouse]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

I'd rather get someone who is here next year if they go over, or if they don't then a rental is ok. 

 

Not to mention...whatever pitcher/s they sign will, not only, help now but will fill the "Ohtani gap" should he decide to leave after the season...

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

What you are saying is that the Angels are not committed to increasing payroll to accommodate an Ohtani contract. More specifically they are willing to pay Ohtani whatever it takes, but that money will have to come out of other areas.

That’s not actually what I’m saying. 
 

I’m saying all teams need a lot of good young guys to win. Guys who cost a lot of money are usually old and on their way down. 

[Angels 1961]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That’s not actually what I’m saying. 
 

I’m saying all teams need a lot of good young guys to win. Guys who cost a lot of money are usually old and on their way down. 

Give me the young and hungry players. Neto, O'Hoppe, Adell, Moniak, Sandoval, Detmers, Canning. Ohtani goes or stays Angel's will be OK.

[Blarg]

Barria made a bowel movement outing tonight. Not quite the moves we were hoping for. 

[Taylor]

[AngelsLakersFan]

25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That’s not actually what I’m saying. 
 

I’m saying all teams need a lot of good young guys to win. Guys who cost a lot of money are usually old and on their way down. 

Ah, you're drifting into old adage territory. Of course this team is only going to go as far as the young core takes it. In practical terms though, if they are paying $110-120 million annually to 3 guys it's going to be hard to fill out the roster in the $210 mill range unless the young guys can adequately cover all of the diamond. With an extra $30 million you can get something like Drury, Urshella, Renfroe and room to trade for some help. Not having that is a huge loss.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Give me the young and hungry players. 

Bring back Maitan?

[totdprods]

I mentioned it in the “15 Wins A Month” thread but it fits here too..

The Angels have all the reason in the world to make a push this deadline. Not only is it possibly Ohtani’s last season, but could be Perry’s, Nevin’s, even Arte’s, especially if they don’t make the playoffs. Perry’s job is likely on the line if he doesn’t get them there, and as close as they are and as aggressive as he’s been, I doubt he’s going to let a lot stand in his way - if he deals away youngsters, it either is his problem to figure out next year or the next guy’s. Arte might have a lot more openness on the tax and payroll. They’re gonna go all-in. It also helps with the PR narrative if they make the playoffs and Shohei still leaves. 

Circling back to how I started this post, Texas and Houston aren’t in nearly the same make-or-break stakes as the Angels. The Rangers shouldn’t torpedo their youngsters in an attempt to stave off the Angels, they’ve got deGrom and Semien and Seager and others to support next year and in the near-term. They should recognize that they’re better off focusing on 2024-2026ish as their window instead of going all in for ‘23, competing against an urgent Angels. The Astros are depleted on their farm and fortunate to be playing as well as they have…like Texas, they might be better off playing it safe, hoping for the best, and focusing more on next year. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Bring back Maitan?

Too soon?

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Ah, you're drifting into old adage territory. Of course this team is only going to go as far as the young core takes it. In practical terms though, if they are paying $110-120 million annually to 3 guys it's going to be hard to fill out the roster in the $210 mill range unless the young guys can adequately cover all of the diamond. With an extra $30 million you can get something like Drury, Urshella, Renfroe and room to trade for some help. Not having that is a huge loss.

First of all, there’s only a 3-year window when Rendon would overlap with Ohtani and Trout, and they could probably backload Ohtani’s deal to mitigate that. 
 

Also, if you have a good farm system you can more easily trade for a 28-year old to fill a hole for $7M instead of paying $15M for a 31-year old. 

[Tank]

7 hours ago, floplag said:

This.
If there was ever a year, if there is ever going to be a year, this has to be it.
You cant qualify it, you cant put a budget on it, you get get what it takes and you do it sooner rather than later.
If this isnt that time, then honestly, what would it take for that time to happen?

If you want to sign Ohtani this off season, I believe you need to do something big to get to the playoffs and give yourself a decent chance to play late into October. 
 

If that means trading for someone like Scherzer or Chapman to bolster your pitching staff so you can go deeper, I’d do it without batting an eye. 

[Duren, Duren]

Ohtani most likely would want to be on a team that contends regularly. Not one that is one and done. Which may be the case if the Angels squeak in with Scherzer and/or other older additions.

Even now the core position  starters are mostly veterans who may be questionable in the near future. Moustakas and Escobar, Renfroe, Drury, Urshella for instance won't be big parts of the team past a year or two. Not to mention Rendon's enigmatic status. And even Trout moving deeper into his thirties. 

For this season I see no problem going all in. This roster as is should be as competitive as the other wid card contenders.   But even if they get in, will it be sustainable beyond this year (maybe one more)  without quality youth infusions?

You would think too that Ohtani has a deep understanding about the relative prospects of the key organizations going forward. And that will impact his decision. 

Getting in as a wild card isn't his ultimate goal. But it's likely the most realistic that can be hoped for this specific season. However, a caveat is that once you get in, anything can happen. 

It would be something to see Ohtani in a deciding game of some sort a la WBC. 

The starting pitching side is more promising in terms of youth prospects, but without Ohtani who will be the ace in the near future? No one really stands out as such currently. 

Other posts cover very well the pitching needs. 

Currently they need a better lead off hitter. Someone dynamic who can find ways to get on base and has speed. Ward is not doing the job. Neto at nine sort of compensated in the mid to late innings, but Ohtani and Trout need someone on base who can be a nuisance and distract pitchers. 

For this season, Ohtani's future really overshadows everything the Angels do. It would be nice to be in a playoff chase without having to think about how it impacts one player's future.

If they fail to make it while Ohtani has possibly the greatest season in history, the organization will be ridiculed forever. But compared to recent years it's still been an improved team. And hopefully it still can be tweaked a bit more. 

 

 

[bruin5]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

I mentioned it in the “15 Wins A Month” thread but it fits here too..

The Angels have all the reason in the world to make a push this deadline. Not only is it possibly Ohtani’s last season, but could be Perry’s, Nevin’s, even Arte’s, especially if they don’t make the playoffs. Perry’s job is likely on the line if he doesn’t get them there, and as close as they are and as aggressive as he’s been, I doubt he’s going to let a lot stand in his way - if he deals away youngsters, it either is his problem to figure out next year or the next guy’s. Arte might have a lot more openness on the tax and payroll. They’re gonna go all-in. It also helps with the PR narrative if they make the playoffs and Shohei still leaves. 

Circling back to how I started this post, Texas and Houston aren’t in nearly the same make-or-break stakes as the Angels. The Rangers shouldn’t torpedo their youngsters in an attempt to stave off the Angels, they’ve got deGrom and Semien and Seager and others to support next year and in the near-term. They should recognize that they’re better off focusing on 2024-2026ish as their window instead of going all in for ‘23, competing against an urgent Angels. The Astros are depleted on their farm and fortunate to be playing as well as they have…like Texas, they might be better off playing it safe, hoping for the best, and focusing more on next year. 

I don’t see any way that Minasian’s job is on the line. He’s made a number of good moves this year and added some actually productive players. We’ve seen Neto and O’Hoppe and their future looks promising. No real slappys on the team like last year. And, Minasian has been very aggressive in moving guys out that are not producing. 

Injuries are what is killing this team. It would have been nice to see an extended period with a consistent lineup. Not sure how you prevent. 

It’s sacrilege to say this, but as much as I love Ohtani, the Angels will never be a true playoff contender having to pay Ohtani/Trout/Rendon $120M. Too many other holes to fill to create a championship contender. We’ll just continue on the same treadmill we’ve been on since 2014. At some point a rebuild needs to be considered.  

Edited June 29, 2023 by bruin5

[Hubs]

20 hours ago, Second Base said:

The only move I feel adamant about them making, is bolstering the bullpen. Every elite team seems to have an elite bullpen. And as exciting as all these young power arms that they have are, when it comes down to it, I don't want to hang the entire season on a rookie. One or two at a time is understandable, like Francisco Rodriguez back in 2002. But right now you're looking at Soriano, Joyce, Webb, possibly Silseth or even Yovan down the line. 

Getting Matt Moore back will certainly help, but I would like to see if Perry can acquire a veteran reliever without mortgaging the farm.  As Fletcher said, we can't really do any of this without a farm regardless of Ohtani.

The best way forward is with a strong farm, and that's going to take a couple years to have that kind of depth. Part of the reason why we don't have it right now, is because guys have been promoting so fast, and the others are busting and not promoting at all. There hasn't been a whole lot in between, and it's those in between prospects with steady progress that create depth on the farm. 

So get some more cost reliever help. 

Rodriguez, Shields, Lackey, and Donnelly were all rookies in 2002.

 

[Angels 1961]

8 hours ago, bruin5 said:

I don’t see any way that Minasian’s job is on the line. He’s made a number of good moves this year and added some actually productive players. We’ve seen Neto and O’Hoppe and their future looks promising. No real slappys on the team like last year. And, Minasian has been very aggressive in moving guys out that are not producing. 

Injuries are what is killing this team. It would have been nice to see an extended period with a consistent lineup. Not sure how you prevent. 

It’s sacrilege to say this, but as much as I love Ohtani, the Angels will never be a true playoff contender having to pay Ohtani/Trout/Rendon $120M. Too many other holes to fill to create a championship contender. We’ll just continue on the same treadmill we’ve been on since 2014. At some point a rebuild needs to be considered.  

I think a rebuild has started with young players Neto, O'Hoppe. Moniak, Adell plus young starters they have. Young relief pitchers in Soriano, Bachman and Joyce. Filling spots for OF, 1B and INF can be done thru trades and F/A. I like this group going forward with or without Ohtani. It would be a lot better with him. If Ohtani leaves opens up DH for Trout and others. So, with Ohtani or without this team has taken strides forward this year for the future.

[Dtwncbad]

10 hours ago, Tank said:

If you want to sign Ohtani this off season, I believe you need to do something big to get to the playoffs and give yourself a decent chance to play late into October. 
 

If that means trading for someone like Scherzer or Chapman to bolster your pitching staff so you can go deeper, I’d do it without batting an eye. 

Trading for Scherzer could possibly help the Angels this year.

But if Scherzer exercises his $43m player option for next year, that is not ultimately going to “help” the Angels sign Ohtani.

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Trading for Scherzer could possibly help the Angels this year.

But if Scherzer exercises his $43m player option for next year, that is not ultimately going to “help” the Angels sign Ohtani.

He's under contract for 43.333 next year, unless he opts out. I doubt he opts out.

There are other starter options, we have to consider. I didn't think we needed someone, but after Barria's start yesterday, they have to consider going to a straight six rotation after the break. And acquiring a legit #2/#3 starter to go along with #1 Ohtani / #3 Detmers / #4 Canning / #5 Sandoval / #6 Anderson

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Tank said:

If you want to sign Ohtani this off season, I believe you need to do something big to get to the playoffs and give yourself a decent chance to play late into October. 
 

If that means trading for someone like Scherzer or Chapman to bolster your pitching staff so you can go deeper, I’d do it without batting an eye. 

I agree, largely because weve backed ourselves into this corner and we have no other play to make.
Im still highly skeptical that Arte will ever bust the tax, so till he does im going to retain my doubts even though thats exactly what he needs to do, must do in fact, for it to matter.
Im not wild about Scherzer per se, his demeaner and attitude i feel like he needs to be on a name, a glamour team, i feel like he doesn't respect  a club like ours.  But i also think there are better fits available as well. 

[Revad]

Would Giolito work?

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im not wild about Scherzer per se, his demeaner and attitude i feel like he needs to be on a name, a glamour team, i feel like he doesn't