A "meh" case for Michael Lorenzen

[tdawg87]

Ok, so I'm not going to go too deep into Lorenzen's stats to advocate bringing him back. He is meh. Not exciting. 

He pretty much is what he is: The definition of a decent #4 starter. He had a 1.28 WHIP despite his terrible BB rate, and a...OK FIP of 4.31. He was a little lucky with a .262 BABIP, but not so much so that it's concerning.

The FA pitching class is pretty weak, and filled with older starters. It would be great to add deGrom or Rodon, but we just have so many other needs and I think our pitching depth is good enough that we don't need to spend big on it. Lorenzen isn't exactly going to break the bank. I could see him getting another 1-year deal, perhaps with a vesting option.

You might say he's redundant, and we could easily get the same value from Barria or even Silseth. But the redundancy is the point. If we have a 6 man rotation, that means we need two solid guys at the back end and I think Lorenzen/Silseth/Bush create enough redundancy so when someone inevitably gets hurt, we aren't losing too much. I'm not even mentioning Canning or C-Rod at this point but you can see how we could potentially have a wealth of pitching depth for once.

Some have advocated bringing back Syndergaard, including myself. And I would be ok with that, except I think he's going to get multi-year offers. I don't really think we need to tie up a rotation spot for Syndergaard in 2025 when Silseth will be just as good if not better and is under club control.

Lorenzen gives us a solid back end (gross) guy who could even move to the bullpen if needed and I don't think he's going to cost a ton to fill that role. 

I know this is luke warm stove type shit, but I don't expect a whole lot this offseason with the impending sale. If things move quickly then maybe we can think bigger but for now I'm just thinking boring but realistic.

[Blarg]

Yeah, he is the guy you re-sign snd nobody really throws a party for. 

[Angelsfan1984]

I can see him easily replacing barria in the long reliever role

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I can see him easily replacing barria in the long reliever role

And this is another option. Barria to the rotation Lorenzen to the pen.

@stormngt I got you. 

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Yeah, he is the guy you re-sign snd nobody really throws a party for. 

[Adam]

Useful guy. Sexy arms. Bring em back

[tdawg87]

Just now, Adam said:

Useful guy. Sexy arms. Bring em back

This can't be understated. 

[Blarg]

5 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I can see him easily replacing barria in the long reliever role

Barria is well suited for the role they have him in. It is not easy to find guys that can bounce out of the bullpen and do 4 innings and keep the team in the game.

There are fireman who do the daily small kitchen fire duty, put out a car on the freeway, maybe even an apatment blaze.

Then there are smoke jumpers that drop into areas that could rage out of control. That's Barria. 

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Barria is well suited for the role they have him in. It is not easy to find guys that can bounce out of the bullpen and do 4 innings and keep the team in the game.

There are fireman who do the daily small kitchen fire duty, put out a car on the freeway, maybe even an apatment blaze.

Then there are smoke jumpers that drop into areas that could rage out of control. That's Barria. 

[Stradling]

Bring him back for a 2 year $18 million with a third year club option, for around $12 million. 

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Bring him back for a 2 year $18 million with a third year club option, for around $12 million. 

He made $7M this year.  Never made more than $4.5M before.  Exactly what did he do this season to justify an $18M commitment?  If that's what it's going to take to sign him, I welcome the day when someone other than the Angels get him.

[Revad]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

He made $7M this year.  Never made more than $4.5M before.  Exactly what did he do this season to justify an $18M commitment?  If that's what it's going to take to sign him, I welcome the day when someone other than the Angels get him.

He still has upside, and has a year of starting under his belt.  Plus he’s Minasian’s guy, it was a gamble guaranteeing Lorenzen a starter’s slot and it worked out ok.

[ukyah]

9 and 12 million is undesirable. no thanks at that rate.

[jsnpritchett]

4 minutes ago, Revad said:

He still has upside, and has a year of starting under his belt.  Plus he’s Minasian’s guy, it was a gamble guaranteeing Lorenzen a starter’s slot and it worked out ok.

Where do you see his upside?  I'm genuinely curious, since I've seen others say that, too.  I don't see much in the data to support that.

[Stradling]

I think that’s about the amount it will cost to sign him. It’ll be $8-9 million a year. In his 18 starts he was bad in 5, great in 5 and kept his team in the game in the other 8. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

He's not really worth it for more than $4-5 mil IMO. I'd consider bringing him back on a 2 year, $8-9 mil deal at most. Given the likely constraints of the offseason I am not signing a guy like Lorenzen until after a few other pieces are added.

[tdawg87]

Considering the cost of pitching, $9 million isn't outrageous. 

I was thinking more like 1 year, 8 million with a vesting option for innings pitched. 2/16 isn't ridiculous. 

Syndergaard probably gets 3/54.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Considering the cost of pitching, $9 million isn't outrageous. 

I was thinking more like 1 year, 8 million with a vesting option for innings pitched. 2/16 isn't ridiculous. 

Syndergaard probably gets 3/54.

He very well might get that but I don't think the Angels have any business giving that to him. He's not a big enough upgrade over whoever will get his innings at least in comparison to LF,3B,1B,SS.

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Considering the cost of pitching, $9 million isn't outrageous. 

I was thinking more like 1 year, 8 million with a vesting option for innings pitched. 2/16 isn't ridiculous. 

Syndergaard probably gets 3/54.

And I'm praying the Angels are not in on him, too.

[cals]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

You’re not allowed to post gifs or memes with Blarg actually in them.  Please remove this.

[Angels 1961]

Lorenzen 1 year deal 5 to 7 mill. If he pitches well trade bait at deadline. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He's not really worth it for more than $4-5 mil IMO. I'd consider bringing him back on a 2 year, $8-9 mil deal at most. Given the likely constraints of the offseason I am not signing a guy like Lorenzen until after a few other pieces are added.

He put up 1 fWAR in less than 100 innings.  If the price of 1 WAR is 8-9, he's likely due for a raise.  Whether or not he'll be in demand enough to get that is a different story.  

[Revad]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Where do you see his upside?  I'm genuinely curious, since I've seen others say that, too.  I don't see much in the data to support that.

I’m no scout.  What I see is that Minasian took a chance on him and it worked out ok, Lorenzen was worth one fwar.  I doubt Minasian would have inserted him into the rotation unless he was convinced there was more there.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

FWIW, Lorenzen admitted he didn’t really know how to manage himself as a starter at the beginning of the year and he made some adjustments during the time he was hurt. In his 5 starts after coming back, he was much better. Also, if you just take out the 2 starts that he pitched with a bad shoulder, he had a 3.80 ERA or something like that. 
 

He also really wants to come back. 
 

I think there is probably some scenario that makes sense for both sides, especially if the Angels can convince him to be open to a relief role if starting doesn’t work. 

[m0nkey]

24 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Also, if you just take out the 2 starts that he pitched with a bad shoulder, he had a 3.80 ERA or something like that. 
 

If you also take out the innings in which he allowed an earned run, he had a 0.00 ERA