A "meh" case for Michael Lorenzen

[BTH]

I’m not against bringing Lorenzen back, but it depends on the price and how much money the Angels have to spend this offseason (which are two pieces of information I don’t know).

He made $6.75M last season— and if the Angels budget is around $20M this offseason, I’m not sure I’d be willing to commit that much to him.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He put up 1 fWAR in less than 100 innings.  If the price of 1 WAR is 8-9, he's likely due for a raise.  Whether or not he'll be in demand enough to get that is a different story.  

Ya, I don’t super buy into that. I don’t think teams are looking for a 1 war 100 inning starter. You either need more innings or higher quality innings.

I can see someone signing him for a few million projecting 60 innings and half a win out of the pen.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Ya, I don’t super buy into that. I don’t think teams are looking for a 1 war 100 inning starter. You either need more innings or higher quality innings.

I can see someone signing him for a few million projecting 60 innings and half a win out of the pen.

In a 6 man rotation, a guy like Lorenzen is significantly more valuable. They got 14.3 WAR out of Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, and Lorenzen. That would be good for 5th in the AL (they finished 6th). If they added another 1 WAR starter, they'd have been 4th in the AL. 

I'm rambling here, but ultimately the point of this thread was that Lorenzen may have more value than it seems on the surface, and it won't come at a significant cost. And 8-9 million is not significant. We gave Syndergaard 22 million and I don't think anyone considers that a ridiculous amount. 

If we have two 1 WAR pitchers in the 5th and 6th spots in the rotation, I think we're in pretty damn good shape.

[Taylor]

7 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Ok, so I'm not going to go too deep into Lorenzen

Gross

[tdawg87]

Just now, Taylor said:

Gross

[jsnpritchett]

43 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

In a 6 man rotation, a guy like Lorenzen is significantly more valuable. They got 14.3 WAR out of Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, and Lorenzen. That would be good for 5th in the AL (they finished 6th). If they added another 1 WAR starter, they'd have been 4th in the AL. 

I'm rambling here, but ultimately the point of this thread was that Lorenzen may have more value than it seems on the surface, and it won't come at a significant cost. And 8-9 million is not significant. We gave Syndergaard 22 million and I don't think anyone considers that a ridiculous amount. 

If we have two 1 WAR pitchers in the 5th and 6th spots in the rotation, I think we're in pretty damn good shape.

For what it's worth, I think 22 for Syndergaard was crazy. 

And I also just don't buy the whole "1 WAR is worth 8-9M" trope. That may be someone true for a 3+ WAR player, but I'm not into paying that much for a 1 WAR guy with very limited upside. 

[Tank]

4 hours ago, m0nkey said:

If you also take out the innings in which he allowed an earned run, he had a 0.00 ERA

[Tank]

7 yrs/120 mil and not a dime more.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

7 yrs/120 mil and not a dime more.

now we know who's been negotiating the contracts for the Angels over the last 10 years.  

[Docwaukee]

1/7 with a team option of about 9m with a 1m buyout.  

I actually have a pretty good feeling about him improving as a starter next year.  He's also worked out of the pen effectively at times.  Sort of.  So he could be a relief option if things don't go as planned as a starter.  

I think he's a fair option for the budget we're likely to have and I wouldn't be disappointed 

[Tank]

25 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

now we know who's been negotiating the contracts for the Angels over the last 10 years.  

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

In a 6 man rotation, a guy like Lorenzen is significantly more valuable. They got 14.3 WAR out of Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, and Lorenzen. That would be good for 5th in the AL (they finished 6th). If they added another 1 WAR starter, they'd have been 4th in the AL. 

I'm rambling here, but ultimately the point of this thread was that Lorenzen may have more value than it seems on the surface, and it won't come at a significant cost. And 8-9 million is not significant. We gave Syndergaard 22 million and I don't think anyone considers that a ridiculous amount. 

If we have two 1 WAR pitchers in the 5th and 6th spots in the rotation, I think we're in pretty damn good shape.

This is where I am. 

I do believe his overall numbers were dragged down by a handful of starts just before going on the DL and that on the whole he had a productive season as a guy moving from RP to SP.  Mostly I believe he's capable of giving a team 140 or so innings of 95-105 ERA+ out of the back end of the rotation and I think that's extremely valuable to a team like the Angels.  Value wise he was among to top 106 or so SPs with at least 90 IP, lumped in with guys like Nate Eovaldi, Michael Kopech, and Dakota Hudson.  His lack of innings was the only thing keeping him from having been more productive than guys like Urquidy, Manaea, Odorizzi, and Jose Berrios.  He was essentially a number 4 pitcher value wise.  Whether people want to equate value to their perception of what a number four SP is, that's an entirely different matter.

He's not sexy, but he's a decent get at 5 or 6 and precisely the sort of value they should be targeting.  Whether or not his price jives with the Angels budget is another matter.  But if they can't stretch to sign a SP for 7-9 mil then I'd argue they have much bigger issues.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

For what it's worth, I think 22 for Syndergaard was crazy. 

And I also just don't buy the whole "1 WAR is worth 8-9M" trope. That may be someone true for a 3+ WAR player, but I'm not into paying that much for a 1 WAR guy with very limited upside. 

The 8-9 mil for 1 mil trope as you put it is the flip side to the 8 mil is worth 64-72 mil a year trope. 

WAR gets assigned a value based on total wins and monies spent after any given season, I agree it shouldn't be used as a direct 1WAR = 8-9 mil benchmark but it does serve as a bit of a barometer performance/value wise.  It actually becomes easier to believe when looking at MLB as a whole and focusing at what guys are being paid .vs what they are actually producing at... But I'd argue looking at it that way would lead most of us to think most of these guys are just overpaid.

Anyway value vs production is the one area the Angels have failed on the most in recent years.  Mostly because they were forced to try to pursue long shots to try to obtain value/upside  I view Lorenzen as a bit of the opposite, I think he's a good bet to deliver value at a reasonable rate, so I think his floor is probably more certain..  But I do understand why he seems underwhelming.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

now we know who's been negotiating the contracts for the Angels over the last 10 years.  

You should see how well he tips at his luncheons.

[Angel Oracle]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

I think that’s about the amount it will cost to sign him. It’ll be $8-9 million a year. In his 18 starts he was bad in 5, great in 5 and kept his team in the game in the other 8. 

And 3 of the 5 bad starts were likely due to the injury that ultimately kept him out for several weeks.

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

1/7 with a team option of about 9m with a 1m buyout.  

I actually have a pretty good feeling about him improving as a starter next year.  He's also worked out of the pen effectively at times.  Sort of.  So he could be a relief option if things don't go as planned as a starter.  

I think he's a fair option for the budget we're likely to have and I wouldn't be disappointed 

Fletch even said that Lorenzen made adjustments coming back from the IL.

He could well put up #4-#5 starter numbers in 2023 over say 150 innings.

[Stradling]

@tdawg87 hit the nail on the head it is about adding depth.  Lorenzen could be part of that depth.  It is fine if you need Barria to start some games, it is ok if you need Silseth to start some games.  The issue is we will have a team that wants to compete for a playoff spot and we are regular baseball injuries away from relying on Barria and Silseth and Ky Bush.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think an interesting question is, if you knew Lorenzen was to repeat his 2022 season next year, would you want him back, and how much would you pay him?

[jsnpritchett]

14 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think an interesting question is, if you knew Lorenzen was to repeat his 2022 season next year, would you want him back, and how much would you pay him?

$5M, tops.

[AngelsLakersFan]

15 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

$5M, tops.

I’d say about the same. To me the real benefit in this scenario is that it prevents the team from spending more money on potentially worse production, haha.

[tdawg87]

5 million doesn't get you a starting pitcher in 2023.

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

5 million doesn't get you a starting pitcher in 2023.

I know.  I just don't want him back, which is why I gave a lowball number!

Edited October 15, 2022 by jsnpritchett

[tdawg87]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

I know.  I just don't want him back, which I why I gave a lowball number!

[Inside Pitch]

Poor Luigi

[Dtwncbad]

I am not very interested.  Seems like the Angels have bodies in the organization that can provide all the “depth” necessary at the back of the rotation.

I would rather save the money and use it to help sign a premium hitter or a front half of the rotation starter.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Dtwncbad