There will be no rebuild - and this is why

[Angelsjunky]

A common reaction for fans when their team is not very good is some variation of, "Tear it all down! Get rid of these schlubs and get better players!" In the case of the Angels, the most extreme version would entail trading Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for a mythical basket of prospects.

This is understandable, and I imagine anyone reading this has felt this way to varying degrees over the last month or two. While the Angels have played a bit better of late, 10-10 since their 14-game losing streak and 7-5 in their last 12 games, they're still 4 games below .500 (37-41) and and even if they manage to have their first winning season since 2015 they're unlikely to make the playoffs. 

Part 1: 2022 - Are You Saying There's a Chance?

But wait a minute...are they unlikely to reach the playoffs? They're currently just 4.5 games out of the second wildcard spot, with only them teams ahead of them. Right now the Guardians (39-34) and Rays (40-35) are tied for the 2nd wildcard berth, with Texas (36-38) 3.5 GB. Then the Angels, Mariners and White Sox are all 4.5 GB.

Meaning, they're not out of it - not yet, at least.

So if you're the Angels, you're not thinking about a fire-sale - at least not yet. Perry Minasian will likely make a fuller assessment at the All-Star Break. Between now and then, the Angels have a mixed schedule, playing 8 games against really good teams (6 vs. the Astros, 2 vs. the Dodgers), and 6 games vs. pretty bad teams (2 vs. the Marlins, 4 vs the Orioles).

The 2nd half of the season begins on July 22, when the Angels play 3 games in Atlanta, 3 in Kansas City, and then finish up the month with 4 in Anaheim vs the Rangers.

So that gives us 24 games before the August 2 trade deadline, 14 before the ASB, 10 after; 11 of those games are against contenders (Astros, Dodgers, Braves), 13 of them vs. mediocre to bad teams (Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Rangers).

Meaning, while there's one significant check-point at the All-Star Break, it may come down to the wire, in terms of what Perry Minasian will do by the trade deadline. As always, there are three basic possibilities:

Sellers: If it is clear that the Angels are not a contender--meaning, if they haven't made up any ground and remain below .500--Minasian will likely see if he can swap a handful of players for prospects: Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Archie Bradley, maybe even guys like Matt Duffy and Tyler Wade, if he can find any takers. The idea being, trim the fat, add to the farm, and save a few bucks in the process. That said, only Syndergaard and Lorenzen have significant trade value; someone might bite on Loup or Tepera, but their multi-year contracts--not to mention, mediocre performance--reduce their value.

Buyers: The Angels have a legit shot - they are over .500 and playing well, so Minasian might decide to go for it and acquire players that can help in the stretch run. What he would do in such an instance is anyone's guess, but don't be surprised if he uses Jo Adell and/or possibly someone like Jeremiah Jackson and one of those solid AA arms in a trade or two to augment the team. What do they need? Depth, depth, depth - players to raise the floor of the second half of the lineup and bullpen, and possibly a starting pitcher.

Stand pat: If the Angels are hovering around .500 (which is the most likely scenario, in my opinion), and they're not clearly buyers or sellers, Minasian will likely stand pat - or at least not make any significant moves. This is the place the Angels have found themselves in most years in recent history.

A lot of Minasian's decision will likely be based just as much--if not more so--on trajectory and momentum, as it is on actual wins and losses. Meaning, if the Angels continue as-is until the ASB and then get hot after, he may look to buy. Or if the Angels get hot now, but then struggle after the break, he may sell.

Wild trade idea: Jo Adell to the Blue Jays for prospect Gabriel Moreno (C). Moreno is one of the best catching prospects and baseball, Fangraphs has him at 60 FV, but somewhat superfluous with Alejandro Kirk. Adell's last FV was also 60, and might benefit from a change in scenery. If the Angels are sellers and the Blue Jays feel they need another starter, they can throw in Syndergaard or Lorenzen for another prospect, perhaps Ricky Tiedemann or CJ Van Eyk.

Part 2: 2023 and Beyond

So what about next year and beyond? If the Angels suffer their 7th losing season in a row, or at least miss the playoffs for the 8th year in a row, does Minasian tear it all down?

The simple--and, I think, unequivocal--answer is: No. Or should I say, NO. It ain't gonna happen. The biggest weakness of the club also implies its strength: A lack of depth beyond significant star-caliber talent. A true rebuild would involve trading Shohei Ohtani, and you just don't trade a historic player like him, pretty much no matter what. Not only is he a huge draw to fans (and thus the economic bottom line), but trading arguably the most valuable player in the major leagues is a big f-you to Mike Trout and the rest. And let me remind you: Trout is the best thing to ever happen to this franchise (aside from 2002, of course).

A Brief Detour Into Trout Greatness

Consider that Trout turns 31 in August. He isn't getting younger, and he is--as far as we know--committed to playing the rest of his career as an Angel if he feels like he has a chance to win a World Series. He's important; what he wants is important. Not only is he the greatest Angel ever, he's one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Lest you need reminding:

• 42nd all-time in position player fWAR at 79.9, and on-pace to finish in the 30-34th range by the end of the year (the nine players ahead of him are within 4.8 WAR).
• 5th highest JAWS (average of career + best seven years bWAR) among centerfielders, behind only Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, and Mickey Mantle. Meaning, Trout is already probably the 5th greatest center fielder of all time - ahead of guys like Joe DiMaggio and Ken Griffey Jr.
• 28th in JAWS among all position players, and will likely end the season in the top 25.
• 3rd highest WAR7 (65.1) among all center fielders, behind only Mays (73.5) and Cobb (69.0), and just ahead of Mantle (64.7).
• Tied with Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby with a career fWAR of 173, behind only Babe Ruth (197) and Ted Williams (188), and just ahead of Mantle (170). Even as his bat inevitably declines at some point, he's likely going to finish his career with at least a 160 wRC+, which only eight players have done. 

So we're talking about a guy who is already one of the 25 or so greatest position players of all time, one of the five best center fielders of all time, and likely to end his career in the top 10 in both JAWS and career WAR, and already one of the six or seven greatest hitters of all time, and will end his career in the top 10. Notice that I wrote "just ahead of Mantle" twice, which tells us all we need to know about Trout: he's basically been a modernized, updated version of Mantle.

You just don't punt with a player like that. You don't tell him, "Sorry, but we're not going to be competitive again until you're probably starting to decline." Especially when the team has a lot of supporting talent, as we'll get into momentarily.

Back to the Angels 

Let's assume a few things:

1. Taylor Ward's breakthrough is legitimate; maybe not 170 wRC+ superstar level, but let's say he's a bonafide 4+ WAR, 140+ wRC+ player.
2. Anthony Rendon is no longer a superstar, but still a good player. He struggled with injuries again this year and produced only 0.9 WAR and 105 wRC+ in 45 games, but that's still a pace for about 3 WAR over a full season, which is pretty much the definition of "quality regular." The big question is whether he can stay healthy; if he can, he's at least a 3-4 WAR player, maybe better. If not, he'll give solid play while he's relatively healthy.
3. Luis Rengifo is establishing himself as a quality major leaguer. No, he's not a star and likely never will be, but he's played very well for the last week or two, and I think it is legit. So let's say he's a solid, average regular, and thus solves one of the big holes in the middle infield for the next few years.
4. David Fletcher will bounce back. There's reason to believe that his injury was chronic and hampering him all of last year. No, he's unlikely to be the borderline star of 2020 over a full season, but if he can return to 2018-19 levels, he's a quality regular.
5. Brandon Marsh will improve. He's shown flashes of being a very good player, but has really struggled over the last month and a half. But he'll get there; and combining excellent defense with at least league average hitting (and probably better), equals a good player.

So now we have a lineup for 2023 that includes two superstars (Trout, Ohtani), one or two stars (Ward, Rendon), and five quality regulars (Walsh, Stassi, Fletcher, Rengifo, Marsh). 

But that just gives us a good starting lineup - and doesn't address one of the main problems the Angels have faced this year, which is depth (the other being the bullpen). But depth is far easier to solve than the core of your team. The Angels can sign better bench players - it isn't that hard - and presumably Minasian is smart enough to realize just how much the lack of depth behind the starting group has hurt the team. Stars and scrubs doesn't work; you need more "in the middle," and you need better back-up plans for if and when some of your regulars go down with injury.

As far as the pitching staff goes, Ohtani and Patrick Sandoval are the only locks for next year's rotation, although we can probably assume Reid Detmers will be back at some point this year and a lock for the rotation next. The Angels will probably also give a rotation spot to one or two of Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, and possibly even prospects Chase Silseth, Ky Bush, Sam Bachman, Mason Erla, etc. So really, we're talking one or two free agent signings, possibly either Noah Syndergaard or Michael Lorenzen. And more importantly, the Angels have help on the way, with numerous arms in AA and AAA that could end up as major league starters.

Barring trades, the bullpen is probably Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, and...well, some guys. But here is the other hard lesson I hope Minasian learns: Your best bet for building a bullpen is with homegrown arms, namely, an excess of minor league starters ready for the major leagues. To be fair to both Minasian and Eppler, the Angels simply haven't had that in recent memory, but very shortly they will. Not just the names mentioned above, but also possibly Adam Seminaris, Coleman Crow, and Davis Daniel. Actual minor league relievers like Luke Murphy and Robinson Pina may also get a look either later this year or next.

Furthermore, it may be wise for the Angels to transition one or both of Bachman and Chris Rodriguez to relief duties, as neither are likely to hold up over a full season of starting pitching. Maybe Bachman still deserves the benefit of the doubt, but at this point I'd rather see a good chance of Chris Rodriguez as a reliever than a poor chance of him as a starter. 

The point being, next year's bullpen is solvable largely from within. Very shortly the Angels will have a luxury that they haven't had in recent memory: a wealth of minor league arms on the cusp of major league readiness. 

So here's a hypothetical 26-man roster for Opening Day, 2023:

C. Stassi, Thaiss (or Humphreys, or possible free agent signing)

IF: Rendon, Walsh, Fletcher, Rengifo, Stefanic, free agent (or two)

OF: Trout, Ward, Marsh, Adell

SP: Ohtani, Sandoval, free agent (or Syndergaard/Lorenzen), Detmers, two of Suarez/Canning/Silseth/Erla/Bush/etc

RP: Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, Daniel/Erla/Bush/Bachman/C-Rod/Murphy/etc

One option that would make a lot of sense and I wouldn't be surprised to see is Minasian goes after a premier shortstop--Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson--then gives Rengifo the starting job at 2B, which makes Fletcher the utility infielder, as he can play any position reasonably well. But it is hard imaigning them spending big on a free agent with a looming possible/hopeful Ohtani contract. Alternately, the budget approach would be to sign someone like Kike Hernandez or Didi Gregorius to platoon with Rengifo and Fletcher.

In other words, where this year we had the problem of Fletcher going down and being replaced by scrubs like Velazquez and Wade, or Rendon being replaced by Duffy. next year it could be Turner/Bogaerts/Swanson being replaced by Fletcher. Or at least, rather than Duffy, Velazquez and Wade getting tons of playing time, you'd have an improving Rengifo, a healthy Fletcher, and Stefanic.

Prospect Jeremiah Jackson will be in AAA next year and provides an interesting depth option if a major league regular goes down. Livan Soto also continues to play reasonably well in AA, and may end up as a solid bench player.

Conclusion

The core of the team is good, too good to rebuild. They Angels have a wealth of minor league arms that could help in the near future, to fill out the rotation and bulk up the bullpen. They also have some minor league options for the infield, though could use upgrading and greater depth. But again, they're simply not going to rebuild - not now, and not next year. The only way they do a full rebuild is if both of two things happen: They lose Ohtani to free agency and Trout demands a trade. And none of us want to see either of those happen.

[Angelsjunky]

In before someone says, "TLDR."

[Lou]

[fan_since79]

Ohtani is really, really good but can we afford to give him $400 million, because that might be the going rate. 

We'll be paying out a hundred million plus to just three players. Rendon is already looking like a bust. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Ohtani is really, really good but can we afford to give him $400 million, because that might be the going rate. 

We'll be paying out a hundred million plus to just three players. Rendon is already looking like a bust. 

 

I don't understand the economics involved, but one would argue that Ohtani is worth $40M a year (which is what i think it would take to sign him) for all the secondary benefits: ticket sales, paraphernalia, the Japan connection, etc.

Meaning, can the Angels afford NOT to pay him. 

My only concern is if his agency comes up with some strategy that Shohei is two players in one, so deserves to be paid like two players: elite DH (say, $25M/year) and elite starter (say, $30M) a year = $55M. Let's say they realize that one injury could damage both "players," so they reduce it to $45-50M a year.

But it could end up being the lower side of that: 8 years x $45M = $360M, plus incentives.

Maybe the Angels should offer 8/$320M and a percentage of ticket sales when he starts.

[Taylor]

23 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Ohtani is really, really good but can we afford to give him $400 million, because that might be the going rate. 

We'll be paying out a hundred million plus to just three players. Rendon is already looking like a bust. 

 

I thought you self banned and were an Angels nutswinger now.

[T.G.]

AJ, I must say I admire your commitment to providing interesting content to this site.  You're a talented guy.  You certainly don't "mail it in" - you put a lot of thought and work into your stuff.  Good job.

[Taylor]

2 minutes ago, True Grich said:

AJ, I must say I admire your commitment to providing interesting content to this site.  You're a talented guy.  You certainly don't "mail it in" - you put a lot of thought and work into your stuff.  Good job.

He is hero and deserves.

Seriously though, I agree 100%. AJ is the real MVP.

[Dtwncbad]

There will be no rebuild because a rebuild isn’t needed.  They need a few more impact pieces.  It’s not like the team is old and losing 100 games.

[Jay]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

There will be no rebuild because a rebuild isn’t needed.  They need a few more impact pieces.  It’s not like the team is old and losing 100 games.

Copy and paste in 2023.

 

[mmc]

Good post, though the end of it doesn't leave me with much hope.  You're basically saying they're likely going to run it back with a nearly identical roster, and I see no reason why anyone should believe that that will result in a winning season that would entice Ohtani to sign an extension

[Dtwncbad]

16 hours ago, Jay said:

Copy and paste in 2023.

 

Believe me I get the point.  But if the Angels are too incompetent to add the few necessary pieces, then they would certainly be too incompetent to execute a full rebuild.

I am just hoping they figure out the easier project and start winning now.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, True Grich said:

AJ, I must say I admire your commitment to providing interesting content to this site.  You're a talented guy.  You certainly don't "mail it in" - you put a lot of thought and work into your stuff.  Good job.

Well thanks, bud. I do appreciate it.

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, mmc said:

Good post, though the end of it doesn't leave me with much hope.  You're basically saying they're likely going to run it back with a nearly identical roster, and I see no reason why anyone should believe that that will result in a winning season that would entice Ohtani to sign an extension

I hear you, but not quite. Again, I think the biggest two problems are:

• Lack of depth in the lineup ("stars and scrubs"), and 
• Poor bullpen performance

The first is partially solvable from within, with improvements/health from Rengifo, Fletcher, Marsh, etc, as well as possibly Stefanic and eventually Jackson. But I said partially, because we're still left with a big drop-off, so the Angels would do well to find two or three solid platoon types - the types of players you can plug in for a starter and get decent performance from. 

The second can really only be solved by homegrown talent - and unlike this year, next there will be a bunch of players ready to go. In fact, we might start seeing some of guys in AA get auditions in the second half, especially if they're out of contention. 

The point being, unless you're really lucky and catch lightning in a bottle with a free agent signing or clean peanut (e.g. Brendan Donnelly back in the early 00s), a good major league bullpen should be mostly comprised of excess starters - guys who might not be worthy of a rotation spot, but are major leaguers. The Angels have a ton of guys in AA and above who fit this mold, and/or injured guys.

[Puget Sound Angel]

As long as Trout and Ohtani are on the roster you have to go for it. 

Don't even think about re-build until they are gone.

[Skankhunt42]

Anyone have Cliff Notes?

[WicketMaiden]

3 hours ago, Skankhunt42 said:

Anyone have Cliff Notes?

Who is he? And why do you think someone here has kidnapped him?

[Lou]

35 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Who is he? And why do you think someone here has kidnapped him?

Thank you.

[Second Base]

There won't be a rebuild. If Arte wanted to rebuild he would've had Eppler do it with Ausmus as the manager. Eppler was replaced specifically because Arte wanted to win and thought Minasian could do it, and Ausmus because Arte thought Maddon could do it. 

But I think it's very clear right now the Angels are going to lose Ohtani soon and when they do, they'll lose their ace and only other elite bat aside from Trout. 

This team is going to get worse, unfortunately. And it's a bad position to be in, for a team to be losing such a great player but not rebuild. They'll lose him for nothing too, because he won't be traded. No one will want to be known as the team or GM that traded Ohtani. Last time that happened with a two way star, a hundred year long curse came down. 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Second Base

[Angel Oracle]

The good things for next season, provided Ohtani and Thor are re-signed:

Lineup, IF HEALTHY, will be better.

Ward, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, Rengifo, Stassi, Marsh, Fletcher

Rotation will have three guys who are solid up front (Ohtani, Sandoval, Thor), plus others who now have decent MLB experience in Detmers and Suarez, plus Silseth hopefully taking a step forward.

Good potential rotation depth with Bush, Diaz, Kalish, Daniel, and Kerry 

 

Concerns for next season:

Obviously team health, as position player depth is still a bit of an issue.

Have to hope that guys like Villar, Adell, and Squid can do enough at the plate when called on.

The bullpen will still be going through a transition as guys like Loup and Tepera will be on their way out soon, Herget hopefully stays healthy,  hopefully the young talent like Ortega, Warren, and Quijada take a step forward, CRod finally stays healthy and becomes a key bullpen piece, and newcomers like Bachman, Torres, and Erla come up to the parent club.

Lots of ifs

The off-season focus should be re-signing Ohtani and Thor, acquiring a solid enough second catcher, and continuing to improve the scouting and development.

As mentioned before, start operating like the Cardinals by no more signing of big money FAs from other teams.  Focus on your own org.

Now that 2022 contention is highly unlikely, continue to give opps to your key upper level minor league players.  Stefanic, Silseth, Humphreys, Torres, etc.

Trade/DFA Lorenzen and Wade.

See how much other teams are willing to pay towards Loup’s remaining salary, albeit at this point not much.

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[HeavenlyHalos]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

There won't be a rebuild. If Arte wanted to rebuild he would've had Eppler do it with Ausmus as the manager. Eppler was replaced specifically because Arte wanted to win and thought Minasian could do it, and Ausmus because Arte thought Maddon could do it. 

But I think it's very clear right now the Angels are going to lose Ohtani soon and when they do, they'll lose their ace and only other elite bat aside from Trout. 

This team is going to get worse, unfortunately. And it's a bad position to be in, for a team to be losing such a great player but not rebuild. They'll lose him for nothing too, because he won't be traded. No one will want to be known as the team or GM that traded Ohtani. Last time that happened with a two way star, a hundred year long curse came down. 

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they lose Ohtani unless you have some sort of insider info.. I get that he wants to win but we do have next season to build a winning team still and, as AJ outlined in his original post, there are some reasons for optimisim. If there was ever an offseason for Arte to go into the tax, it would be this one to add the neccessary depth to make this team competitive next season and the few after, increasing the odds of Ohtani re-signing. We won't recuperate enough talent in a trade and I don't want to see him end up as a freaking Dodger, Yankee, Red Sox, Met, etc.. 

[cysomeawfulpitcher]

We all know why.  His name rhymes with Farte.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, HeavenlyHalos said:

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they lose Ohtani unless you have some sort of insider info.. I get that he wants to win but we do have next season to build a winning team still and, as AJ outlined in his original post, there are some reasons for optimisim. If there was ever an offseason for Arte to go into the tax, it would be this one to add the neccessary depth to make this team competitive next season and the few after, increasing the odds of Ohtani re-signing. We won't recuperate enough talent in a trade and I don't want to see him end up as a freaking Dodger, Yankee, Red Sox, Met, etc.. 

No inside info. I'm just looking at it realistically. 

- The GM that impressed him enough to sign is gone. 

- The manager when he signed on to play is gone. 

- The manager that completely trusted him and loosened the reigns to allow him to flourish is gone. 

- Every player he talked to and connected with in the interview process and he first season besides Mike Trout is gone.

- The team hasn't won. Not a single winning season. 

- Despite being here 5 seasons, the Angels haven't been able to negotiate an extension. 

- The amount of money he's going to command in free agency at age 28, now that there's universal DH opening up opportunities in the NL, being the only successful two way player in anyone's lifetime and the second most successful Japanese import ever, is going to be astronomical. Arte has never exceeded the luxury tax and with Rendon and Trout on the payroll, he'd need to go way past it in order to sign Ohtani AND surround him with the necessary talent while convincing him that they'll win. It's just not gonna happen. 

I don't think he'll be traded. But I do think he'll walk in free agency. Someone, I'm guessing the Mets (their owner Cohen and Arte Moreno have some beef, and they hired Billy Eppler and have proven they'll spend any amount to win), will offer him something outrageous like 7 years 350 million (50 million a year). 

[Angel Oracle]

Have to hope that both NY’s and the Doyyers would not be enticing as he has hinted in the past that he’s not a big city kind of guy.

I’d start by offering 7 years/$280 million, and then adjusting up based on their counter offer.

[Skankhunt42]

On 7/2/2022 at 5:02 AM, WicketMaiden said:

Who is he? And why do you think someone here has kidnapped him?

Because he left me a note.