There will be no rebuild - and this is why

[WicketMaiden]

14 hours ago, Skankhunt42 said:

Because he left me a note. 

Cliff's note? Could I have the Cliffs Notes on Cliff Notes' note? 

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, i8a 4re said:

The real question is can Arte afford to pay him and field a competitive team. IMO, no. Angels need deeper pocketed owners.

He paid for the team in cash up front in 2003.   His net worth outside of the team is $2 billion.

That doesn’t mean signing overpriced FAs from other teams.

It means re-signing Shohei and Syndergaard, and then spending on the nuts and bolts like scouting, development, a FO full of baseball people, and a solid manager and coaching staff.

In other words, you spend money to make money.   That though doesn’t mean signing nothing but stars from other teams.    Winning baseball is about balanced baseball.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Stradling]

On 7/2/2022 at 8:53 PM, cysomeawfulpitcher said:

We all know why.  His name rhymes with Farte.

Ok dude are you a grown up?  There’s zero chance you think Farte is funny if you are over the age of 14.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok dude are you a grown up?  There’s zero chance you think Farte is funny if you are over the age of 14.  

I think there is a distinct possibility that I would've laughed at that one at 15.

[UndertheHalo]

I am prepared to laugh at farte right now.  

[UndertheHalo]

Anyway I don’t understand people calling for a rebuild.  For sure man.  This complicated multi year endeavor that the Angels have shown zero ability to execute in what ?? Like 20 years.  They’ll for sure do it now.  The Angels are like 2 players away from literally being the worst organization in baseball. 
 

they don’t develop players lol ! What the fuck are you talking about.  The last 5 or 6 years has been the rebuild! Almost nothing to show for it.  

Edited July 4, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 7/1/2022 at 11:34 AM, Angelsjunky said:

A common reaction for fans when their team is not very good is some variation of, "Tear it all down! Get rid of these schlubs and get better players!" In the case of the Angels, the most extreme version would entail trading Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for a mythical basket of prospects.

This is understandable, and I imagine anyone reading this has felt this way to varying degrees over the last month or two. While the Angels have played a bit better of late, 10-10 since their 14-game losing streak and 7-5 in their last 12 games, they're still 4 games below .500 (37-41) and and even if they manage to have their first winning season since 2015 they're unlikely to make the playoffs. 

Part 1: 2022 - Are You Saying There's a Chance?

But wait a minute...are they unlikely to reach the playoffs? They're currently just 4.5 games out of the second wildcard spot, with only them teams ahead of them. Right now the Guardians (39-34) and Rays (40-35) are tied for the 2nd wildcard berth, with Texas (36-38) 3.5 GB. Then the Angels, Mariners and White Sox are all 4.5 GB.

Meaning, they're not out of it - not yet, at least.

So if you're the Angels, you're not thinking about a fire-sale - at least not yet. Perry Minasian will likely make a fuller assessment at the All-Star Break. Between now and then, the Angels have a mixed schedule, playing 8 games against really good teams (6 vs. the Astros, 2 vs. the Dodgers), and 6 games vs. pretty bad teams (2 vs. the Marlins, 4 vs the Orioles).

The 2nd half of the season begins on July 22, when the Angels play 3 games in Atlanta, 3 in Kansas City, and then finish up the month with 4 in Anaheim vs the Rangers.

So that gives us 24 games before the August 2 trade deadline, 14 before the ASB, 10 after; 11 of those games are against contenders (Astros, Dodgers, Braves), 13 of them vs. mediocre to bad teams (Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Rangers).

Meaning, while there's one significant check-point at the All-Star Break, it may come down to the wire, in terms of what Perry Minasian will do by the trade deadline. As always, there are three basic possibilities:

Sellers: If it is clear that the Angels are not a contender--meaning, if they haven't made up any ground and remain below .500--Minasian will likely see if he can swap a handful of players for prospects: Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Archie Bradley, maybe even guys like Matt Duffy and Tyler Wade, if he can find any takers. The idea being, trim the fat, add to the farm, and save a few bucks in the process. That said, only Syndergaard and Lorenzen have significant trade value; someone might bite on Loup or Tepera, but their multi-year contracts--not to mention, mediocre performance--reduce their value.

Buyers: The Angels have a legit shot - they are over .500 and playing well, so Minasian might decide to go for it and acquire players that can help in the stretch run. What he would do in such an instance is anyone's guess, but don't be surprised if he uses Jo Adell and/or possibly someone like Jeremiah Jackson and one of those solid AA arms in a trade or two to augment the team. What do they need? Depth, depth, depth - players to raise the floor of the second half of the lineup and bullpen, and possibly a starting pitcher.

Stand pat: If the Angels are hovering around .500 (which is the most likely scenario, in my opinion), and they're not clearly buyers or sellers, Minasian will likely stand pat - or at least not make any significant moves. This is the place the Angels have found themselves in most years in recent history.

A lot of Minasian's decision will likely be based just as much--if not more so--on trajectory and momentum, as it is on actual wins and losses. Meaning, if the Angels continue as-is until the ASB and then get hot after, he may look to buy. Or if the Angels get hot now, but then struggle after the break, he may sell.

Wild trade idea: Jo Adell to the Blue Jays for prospect Gabriel Moreno (C). Moreno is one of the best catching prospects and baseball, Fangraphs has him at 60 FV, but somewhat superfluous with Alejandro Kirk. Adell's last FV was also 60, and might benefit from a change in scenery. If the Angels are sellers and the Blue Jays feel they need another starter, they can throw in Syndergaard or Lorenzen for another prospect, perhaps Ricky Tiedemann or CJ Van Eyk.

Part 2: 2023 and Beyond

So what about next year and beyond? If the Angels suffer their 7th losing season in a row, or at least miss the playoffs for the 8th year in a row, does Minasian tear it all down?

The simple--and, I think, unequivocal--answer is: No. Or should I say, NO. It ain't gonna happen. The biggest weakness of the club also implies its strength: A lack of depth beyond significant star-caliber talent. A true rebuild would involve trading Shohei Ohtani, and you just don't trade a historic player like him, pretty much no matter what. Not only is he a huge draw to fans (and thus the economic bottom line), but trading arguably the most valuable player in the major leagues is a big f-you to Mike Trout and the rest. And let me remind you: Trout is the best thing to ever happen to this franchise (aside from 2002, of course).

A Brief Detour Into Trout Greatness

Consider that Trout turns 31 in August. He isn't getting younger, and he is--as far as we know--committed to playing the rest of his career as an Angel if he feels like he has a chance to win a World Series. He's important; what he wants is important. Not only is he the greatest Angel ever, he's one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Lest you need reminding:

• 42nd all-time in position player fWAR at 79.9, and on-pace to finish in the 30-34th range by the end of the year (the nine players ahead of him are within 4.8 WAR).
• 5th highest JAWS (average of career + best seven years bWAR) among centerfielders, behind only Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, and Mickey Mantle. Meaning, Trout is already probably the 5th greatest center fielder of all time - ahead of guys like Joe DiMaggio and Ken Griffey Jr.
• 28th in JAWS among all position players, and will likely end the season in the top 25.
• 3rd highest WAR7 (65.1) among all center fielders, behind only Mays (73.5) and Cobb (69.0), and just ahead of Mantle (64.7).
• Tied with Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby with a career fWAR of 173, behind only Babe Ruth (197) and Ted Williams (188), and just ahead of Mantle (170). Even as his bat inevitably declines at some point, he's likely going to finish his career with at least a 160 wRC+, which only eight players have done. 

So we're talking about a guy who is already one of the 25 or so greatest position players of all time, one of the five best center fielders of all time, and likely to end his career in the top 10 in both JAWS and career WAR, and already one of the six or seven greatest hitters of all time, and will end his career in the top 10. Notice that I wrote "just ahead of Mantle" twice, which tells us all we need to know about Trout: he's basically been a modernized, updated version of Mantle.

You just don't punt with a player like that. You don't tell him, "Sorry, but we're not going to be competitive again until you're probably starting to decline." Especially when the team has a lot of supporting talent, as we'll get into momentarily.

Back to the Angels 

Let's assume a few things:

1. Taylor Ward's breakthrough is legitimate; maybe not 170 wRC+ superstar level, but let's say he's a bonafide 4+ WAR, 140+ wRC+ player.
2. Anthony Rendon is no longer a superstar, but still a good player. He struggled with injuries again this year and produced only 0.9 WAR and 105 wRC+ in 45 games, but that's still a pace for about 3 WAR over a full season, which is pretty much the definition of "quality regular." The big question is whether he can stay healthy; if he can, he's at least a 3-4 WAR player, maybe better. If not, he'll give solid play while he's relatively healthy.
3. Luis Rengifo is establishing himself as a quality major leaguer. No, he's not a star and likely never will be, but he's played very well for the last week or two, and I think it is legit. So let's say he's a solid, average regular, and thus solves one of the big holes in the middle infield for the next few years.
4. David Fletcher will bounce back. There's reason to believe that his injury was chronic and hampering him all of last year. No, he's unlikely to be the borderline star of 2020 over a full season, but if he can return to 2018-19 levels, he's a quality regular.
5. Brandon Marsh will improve. He's shown flashes of being a very good player, but has really struggled over the last month and a half. But he'll get there; and combining excellent defense with at least league average hitting (and probably better), equals a good player.

So now we have a lineup for 2023 that includes two superstars (Trout, Ohtani), one or two stars (Ward, Rendon), and five quality regulars (Walsh, Stassi, Fletcher, Rengifo, Marsh). 

But that just gives us a good starting lineup - and doesn't address one of the main problems the Angels have faced this year, which is depth (the other being the bullpen). But depth is far easier to solve than the core of your team. The Angels can sign better bench players - it isn't that hard - and presumably Minasian is smart enough to realize just how much the lack of depth behind the starting group has hurt the team. Stars and scrubs doesn't work; you need more "in the middle," and you need better back-up plans for if and when some of your regulars go down with injury.

As far as the pitching staff goes, Ohtani and Patrick Sandoval are the only locks for next year's rotation, although we can probably assume Reid Detmers will be back at some point this year and a lock for the rotation next. The Angels will probably also give a rotation spot to one or two of Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, and possibly even prospects Chase Silseth, Ky Bush, Sam Bachman, Mason Erla, etc. So really, we're talking one or two free agent signings, possibly either Noah Syndergaard or Michael Lorenzen. And more importantly, the Angels have help on the way, with numerous arms in AA and AAA that could end up as major league starters.

Barring trades, the bullpen is probably Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, and...well, some guys. But here is the other hard lesson I hope Minasian learns: Your best bet for building a bullpen is with homegrown arms, namely, an excess of minor league starters ready for the major leagues. To be fair to both Minasian and Eppler, the Angels simply haven't had that in recent memory, but very shortly they will. Not just the names mentioned above, but also possibly Adam Seminaris, Coleman Crow, and Davis Daniel. Actual minor league relievers like Luke Murphy and Robinson Pina may also get a look either later this year or next.

Furthermore, it may be wise for the Angels to transition one or both of Bachman and Chris Rodriguez to relief duties, as neither are likely to hold up over a full season of starting pitching. Maybe Bachman still deserves the benefit of the doubt, but at this point I'd rather see a good chance of Chris Rodriguez as a reliever than a poor chance of him as a starter. 

The point being, next year's bullpen is solvable largely from within. Very shortly the Angels will have a luxury that they haven't had in recent memory: a wealth of minor league arms on the cusp of major league readiness. 

So here's a hypothetical 26-man roster for Opening Day, 2023:

C. Stassi, Thaiss (or Humphreys, or possible free agent signing)

IF: Rendon, Walsh, Fletcher, Rengifo, Stefanic, free agent (or two)

OF: Trout, Ward, Marsh, Adell

SP: Ohtani, Sandoval, free agent (or Syndergaard/Lorenzen), Detmers, two of Suarez/Canning/Silseth/Erla/Bush/etc

RP: Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, Daniel/Erla/Bush/Bachman/C-Rod/Murphy/etc

One option that would make a lot of sense and I wouldn't be surprised to see is Minasian goes after a premier shortstop--Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson--then gives Rengifo the starting job at 2B, which makes Fletcher the utility infielder, as he can play any position reasonably well. But it is hard imaigning them spending big on a free agent with a looming possible/hopeful Ohtani contract. Alternately, the budget approach would be to sign someone like Kike Hernandez or Didi Gregorius to platoon with Rengifo and Fletcher.

In other words, where this year we had the problem of Fletcher going down and being replaced by scrubs like Velazquez and Wade, or Rendon being replaced by Duffy. next year it could be Turner/Bogaerts/Swanson being replaced by Fletcher. Or at least, rather than Duffy, Velazquez and Wade getting tons of playing time, you'd have an improving Rengifo, a healthy Fletcher, and Stefanic.

Prospect Jeremiah Jackson will be in AAA next year and provides an interesting depth option if a major league regular goes down. Livan Soto also continues to play reasonably well in AA, and may end up as a solid bench player.

Conclusion

The core of the team is good, too good to rebuild. They Angels have a wealth of minor league arms that could help in the near future, to fill out the rotation and bulk up the bullpen. They also have some minor league options for the infield, though could use upgrading and greater depth. But again, they're simply not going to rebuild - not now, and not next year. The only way they do a full rebuild is if both of two things happen: They lose Ohtani to free agency and Trout demands a trade. And none of us want to see either of those happen.

Unfortunately AJ, I think you are being far too optimistic. There is no way that all 5 of your assumptions actually turn out to be true, and realistically it's been those four or five things (or similar) that we've based our positive expectations on over the past three or so seasons.

Ultimately the team won't rebuild because Arte doesn't rebuild. And right now it probably doesn't make sense to rebuild until we play out the first half of next season as well. We still have one more year of Ohtani so we may as well go for it.

Sadly the current outlook is pretty terrible. Yes there are reasons for optimism, and some talent on the horizon but this is the third or fourth year in a row that the team has been in this position and done nothing with it. 5 years of Ohtani and Trout, three years with Rendon, two years of the kids being just about ready to contribute and a decade of patch work failures filling out the roster.

When Eppler was here it was easy to give him something of a pass for his inability to fill out a roster because he simply had to find too many piece. Two years under Minasian and despite the young arms in the rotation, the emergence of Walsh and Ward, we still can't find a single piece to complement the team roster.

Syndergaard and Lorenzen have been fine but considering the $30 mill and a draft pick they gave up to get them it's underwhelming. The middle infield solutions of Duffy, Wade, Velazquez, Fletcher, Rojas, and Mayfield have been a cumulative 2 wins below replacement. I don't even want to talk about the expensive bullpen, or the decision to re-sign Suzuki...

So while the core is solid, the inability to find complementary pieces sinks the team every year. So sure, maybe they finally figure it out next year, but you'd be crazy to bet on it. And if this year has shown us anything it's that it appears that Trout is finally entering his decline phase. With a declining Trout, no Ohtani and then several miles of shit the team may as well be rebuilding even if they are actually doing everything they can to try and win.

[AngelsLakersFan]

10 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Anyway I don’t understand people calling for a rebuild.  For sure man.  This complicated multi year endeavor that the Angels have shown zero ability to execute in what ?? Like 20 years.  They’ll for sure do it now.  The Angels are like 2 players away from literally being the worst organization in baseball. 
 

they don’t develop players lol ! What the fuck are you talking about.  The last 5 or 6 years has been the rebuild! Almost nothing to show for it.  

You drinking early today UTH? It's OK as today we celebrate America!

But to your point about the rebuild... it's been a half assed rebuild at best. They have approached it with poor draft positioning and without trading anyone from the roster. They have also traded picks to get out from under poor financial obligations and traded lesser prospects to fill out the MLB roster. They haven't pushed their chips in and they have put more investment into the system, but that's not really a rebuild, it's more of the same, middle road approach that this team takes towards everything.

[Angel Oracle]

Seems that these past 1 1/2 months, they are looking like a rudderless ship.

They seem disjointed.

[UndertheHalo]

36 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

You drinking early today UTH? It's OK as today we celebrate America!

But to your point about the rebuild... it's been a half assed rebuild at best. They have approached it with poor draft positioning and without trading anyone from the roster. They have also traded picks to get out from under poor financial obligations and traded lesser prospects to fill out the MLB roster. They haven't pushed their chips in and they have put more investment into the system, but that's not really a rebuild, it's more of the same, middle road approach that this team takes towards everything.

Why do you think the Angels as an organization are capable of putting together a good rebuild plan and doing it.  What are they going to do now in this new rebuild that they couldn’t have done in the last 10 years.  Sure they haven’t had top 5 or 6 picks.  But I’m not sure that’s a significant component of successful development systems.  Is Trouts contract stopping Arte from changing the organizational hierarchy ? Is it stopping him from getting more coaches or data guys ? I personally don’t buy that. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[UndertheHalo]

Ok we get rid of trout and ohtani and then what ? Are they going to stop being the Arte Moreno Angels ? 

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Why do you think the Angels as an organization a capable to putting together a rebuild plan and doing it.  What are they going to do now in this new rebuild that they couldn’t have done in the last 10 years.  Sure they haven’t had top 5 or 6 picks.  But I’m not sure that’s a significant component of successful development systems.  Is Trouts contract stopping Arte from changing the organizational hierarchy ? Is it stopping him from getting more coaches or data guys ? I personally don’t buy that. 

Who can say, but it is a different approach than the one that they have taken the past decade, so maybe they will be better at it. The alternative is the keep doing the same thing...

[UndertheHalo]

9 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Who can say, but it is a different approach than the one that they have taken the past decade, so maybe they will be better at it. The alternative is the keep doing the same thing...

I think they should do something different without getting rid of Trout and they should try keeping Ohtani.  They ended up with a guy like Villar anyway.  Why not just do that before the season starts.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think they should do something different without getting rid of Trout and they should try keeping Ohtani.  They ended up with a guy like Villar anyway.  Why not just do that before the season starts.  

They started with Wade (-0.6 fWar) and ended up with Villar (-0.7 fWar)... It's just deck chairs on the Titanic. Like I said in the offseason, I don't care what they do if they just sign some good players; they have failed to do that.

Arte has capped the payroll to the point where they did not attempt to sign a major league caliber free agent shortstop despite not having one in the organization. When they booted Hamilton off the team they did not sign a a major league caliber left fielder (Upton) until his contract came off the books. Ohtani is just another $30 mil a year added to the payroll, that will not allow them to sign other players they need and another excuse to not rebuild.

In the end I'd like to see them keep Ohtani but the team will not do what it takes to win if they do sign him. I've been beating that drum for the past 12 years so there is no reason to expect anything different... We can watch Trout and Ohtani play for a losing team or they can start over and see what happens.

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

They started with Wade (-0.6 fWar) and ended up with Villar (-0.7 fWar)... It's just deck chairs on the Titanic. Like I said in the offseason, I don't care what they do if they just sign some good players; they have failed to do that.

Arte has capped the payroll to the point where they did not attempt to sign a major league caliber free agent shortstop despite not having one in the organization. When they booted Hamilton off the team they did not sign a a major league caliber left fielder (Upton) until his contract came off the books. Ohtani is just another $30 mil a year added to the payroll, that will not allow them to sign other players they need and another excuse to not rebuild.

In the end I'd like to see them keep Ohtani but the team will not do what it takes to win if they do sign him. I've been beating that drum for the past 12 years so there is no reason to expect anything different... We can watch Trout and Ohtani play for a losing team or they can start over and see what happens.

I think they should keep him and change they way they operate like they apparently promised Trout when he signed.  There’s still no evidence that they’ve start making good on that. 

[mmc]

6 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think they should keep him and change they way they operate

You and everyone else on the site, you aren't making a point or an argument by repeating this

[gotbeer]

We have two players that may become in the top 10 or 20 greatest in the history of the game.  

And we are talking about rebuilding, reloading, or pretty much not sucking.  That is becoming one of the all time Epic Fails in the baseball category.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 7/1/2022 at 12:03 PM, Angelsjunky said:

I don't understand the economics involved, but one would argue that Ohtani is worth $40M a year (which is what i think it would take to sign him) for all the secondary benefits: ticket sales, paraphernalia, the Japan connection, etc.

Meaning, can the Angels afford NOT to pay him. 

My only concern is if his agency comes up with some strategy that Shohei is two players in one, so deserves to be paid like two players: elite DH (say, $25M/year) and elite starter (say, $30M) a year = $55M. Let's say they realize that one injury could damage both "players," so they reduce it to $45-50M a year.

But it could end up being the lower side of that: 8 years x $45M = $360M, plus incentives.

Maybe the Angels should offer 8/$320M and a percentage of ticket sales when he starts.

Replacing him at DH and an ace on the mound would cost the same...

[UndertheHalo]

12 hours ago, mmc said:

You and everyone else on the site, you aren't making a point or an argument by repeating this

Shut up bitch. 

[mmc]

46 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Shut up bitch. 

I’m sorry

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, mmc said:

I’m sorry

It’s ok 

[Duren, Duren]

Is it possible to think the impossible? That Trout wants to go to another organization at some point in the next year or two? We know about his loyalty and comfort zone in the environment, but things do change. 

His contract was signed with expectations that he would remain close to the same consistent MVP type player, given some drop off is inevitable. And that the team was prioritizing building a contender around him. It was signed with Maddon managing and optimism about Perry being the right guy to build that team. And the possibility for being with Ohtani for most of their careers 

It's only human nature to feel frustration when things don't go well. 

Trout has gone through uncharacteristic longer term slumps this half season. And not related to injuries. When hot he still is awesome, but he shows more weaknesses at the plate and admits having some mechanical problems. He hasn't stolen a base in three years as well. Defensively the team tentatively thought about moving him out of center field, saving wear and tear. An acknowledgement that as he ages he is more prone to decline  and injury. 

Obviously he still is elite, but small signs are showing that he isn't going to be the awesome machine forever. 

Turning thirty must have been a time of reflection for him. Thinking about the future, his body and skill set, and unfulfilled team objectives. And understanding all the factors that have resulted in the team never progressing. 

Purely idle musing on my part, but having seen so many precedents in all sports about superstars doing the unthinkable and leaving lifelong teams, you could never take things for granted. 

Realistically I doubt anything happens for a few more years at least. That contract is a giant commitment for any team. And if he declines more obviously his value also declines to any other team. 

Thank goodness this isn't basketball, where the inmates run the asylum and demand all sorts of selfish moves . And friends decide that they want to play with each other regardless of consequences. But you never know ...

 

[Slegnaac]

11 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Replacing him at DH and an ace on the mound would cost the same...

The future DH is currently playing CF.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

The future DH is currently playing CF.

You would still need to replace Ohtani's bat, and an Ace pitcher or re-sign him. Either way the price should be a wash...

Edited July 5, 2022 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

The future DH is currently playing CF.