Why do the Halos struggle with building bullpens?

[Angel Oracle]

I’m taking a break from the board to recharge and regroup.   But this is one important thread to create for discussion as I take that break.

Going back to 2016, the Halos have never had a decent bullpen with enough depth.  

How is it that other teams manage to have enough success at some point with their bullpen, but aside from one season each of Robles and Iglesias, it’s been mostly no hit and all miss at building a bullpen here?

[Stradling]

I just saw this on FB:

What if I told you that Raisel Iglesias had an almost identical start to the season in 2021?

 5 HRs allowed and 4.17 FIP 12 saves 4 blown games in first 21 IP of 2022

 5 HRs allowed and 3.98 FIP 9 Saves 3 blown games in first 21 IP of 2021

[failos]

This happens to every team that spends $$$ on big name FA pitchers. BP arms are so volatile and unpredictable—look at the Rockies the other year.

[Angels 1961]

Angels seemed to sign solid bullpen pieces this off season. Loup, Tepera, Raisel, Bradley all looked to be solid signings. So far has not looked very good.

[rageous]

It's because the lack of talent from their minor league system. 

[Taylor]

It does feel like bullpen-building is a crapshoot, but it's annoying that teams like the Yankees and Dodgers seem to always find at least a few power arms who bolster their pen. I'm sure ultimately it comes down to scouting and drafting.

Hopefully some of the 20 arms they drafted last year will translate to reliable bullpen pieces. 

[UndertheHalo]

Why does every team do badly at this ?

[tomsred]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Why does every team do badly at this ?

I think it's because bullpen arms only throw 60-75 innings in a year at most.  It's extremely hard to predict how consistent and effective any pitcher can be with so small of a sample size, and for that matter how healthy they can remain.

[Jason]

3 hours ago, rageous said:

It's because the lack of talent from their minor league system. 

I think there may be talent but the issue is prioritizing development of bullpen arms. I think the org knows this and that's why they only drafted pitchers last year. 

[Docwaukee]

It's actually quite simple.  In the last 10 years, how many pen arms have been internal?  

Jepsen?  Kohn?   Mike Roth?  Mike Morin?  Cam Bedrosian?  Keynan Middleton?  Justin Anderson?  

There are three pools of players to pull from for the pen.  

1.  your own system.  
2. an expensive free agent
3. the pile of potential clean peanuts.  

you can't live on 2 and 3.  And if you try to you're going to get massive inconsistency and or payroll issues or both.  

Cashman or whoever he's tasked with handling this for the yankees has done an amazing job at balancing these three thing over the years.  It's almost case study worthy since he started.  Granted, they've spent a ton of money, but as we've seen, that doesn't always work.  

pen WAR over the last 25 years since he started:

124 for the yankees
100 for the dogs
95 - OAK

the Angels - who had a really good pen for long periods rivaling the yankees for several year - are 11th at 78.5.  

the yankees never have  a top draft pick.  In fact they give away picks yearly by signing guys.  And granted, different level of resources.  But the Angels aren't lacking of resources in general.  

My theory is that he knows he doesn't have to select for SP or position players because he can just buy them so he just stockpiles arms for the pen but damn he's done a hell of job in making that theory work as it relates to the pen.  25 years worth of data that outpaces the next closest by 25% and doubles the mean.   And 150 more wins over that time period than any other team.  Not totally correlative to the pen but it's a general lesson in understanding how to make use of your resources.  

[Angelsjunky]

I'd say it is a combination of two factors:

- Lack of minor league talent

- Poor player assessment

When was the last time the Angels had a good bullpen? Well, let's take a look.

In fact, let's look at the different parts of the team, from 2000-2022 (this is for you, @Angel Oracle )

[cysomeawfulpitcher]

5 hours ago, rageous said:

It's because the lack of talent from their minor league system. 

That's what happens on a diet of PB and J sandwiches.  FU Arte.

[drpiranha]

You can luck into a good bullpen, but you can't count on that. Things have changed a lot in the last several years. I have been an ardent baseball fan my whole life, but paid little attention in the late teens. Fans always compared pitchers by ERA and WHIP and to a lesser extent K/9 and K/BB ratio. ERA and WHIP can be influenced by team defense and positioning. How many outs have been lost by bad outfield breaks or shifts being beaten and how many hits and runs have been saved by good defense and positioning. Tepera and Loup were great signings if you look at ERA and WHIP. Iglesias has lost 2-3 MPH on his fastball and sinker. Why? I don't know. It's the job of pitching coach to figure out why. Wise needs to compare good Iglesias and bad Iglesias. Is there a difference in arm angle or stride that makes a difference?

I think every pitcher needs to be evaluated, not just by ERA and WHIP, but by velocity, spin rate, drop and the differences in all these within their pitching arsenal. Also, there has to be stats available for the the percentage of time the strikes are in central 2/3 of the zone, 80%, 90% etc and the ability to hit the corners. There is enough data out there to make more informed decisions. They just need the time and intelligence to use them.

[Robrock30]

Angel Oracle,

My benchmark was the 2002 Team which had a shutdown bullpen especially after promoting Krod.  The Angels need to find another Scot Shields who held it together for nearly a decade.

[Inside Pitch]

21 hours ago, rageous said:

It's because the lack of talent from their minor league system. 

In a nutshell.   

The best way to build pens is to convert failed SPs with at least one plus plus pitch or the ability to manufacture their own outs/induce GBs.  The Angels utter lack of rotation types in the system for much of the last decade has pretty much guaranteed there would be a lack of RPs and JD's attempt to target RPs in the draft didn't pan out.   To be fair to JD, you'd think there would be more success league wide drafting RPs but there really hasn't been.  Ben McDonald, Huston Street.  Not a ton of guys.

[Inside Pitch]

34 minutes ago, Robrock30 said:

Angel Oracle,

My benchmark was the 2002 Team which had a shutdown bullpen especially after promoting Krod.  The Angels need to find another Scot Shields who held it together for nearly a decade.

Both of them failed starters as was pretty much everyone in that bullpen except for Percival who was a failed catcher... lol...

[HanfordGuy]

Why do the Halos struggle with building bullpens?

Why do bears bear? Why do bees bee?